Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 020954
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
554 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY. A LARGE AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY MUCH OF THE AREA UNTIL 10 AM. SOME AREAS WILL
REMAIN A LOW CEILING...BUT ENOUGH AREAS ARE OR WILL BECOME 1/4
MILE THAT IT IS WARRANTED. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR UPDATES.

AS OF 3AM...JET STREAM FROM DESERT SW TO SRN NEW ENGLAND IN A BROAD
TROUGH OVER THE CONUS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN GREAT
LAKES. THERE IS A HIGH BUILDING EAST INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS
HIGH WILL KEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ERN CONUS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ARE DISSIPATING AS THEY CROSS
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

LOW CLOUDS ARE ACROSS THE AREA WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. FOG
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP.

TODAY...LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT STALLING OVER THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THIS LINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH POPS INCREASING TO
LIKELY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH A WIND/HAIL THREAT IN 30 KT BULK SHEAR AND AROUND 1500 J/KG
CAPE. PRESENCE OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY OF RETREATING CAD
WEDGE CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL BAY BREEZE BRINGS A TORNADO THREAT TO THE
BALT-WASH METRO. MAX TEMPS AROUND 80F FROM SUPERBLEND...HIGH BUST
POTENTIAL AS CAD WEDGE WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA ALONG THE STALLED COLD
FRONT CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH CONTINUED THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY...COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST IN WAKE OF SFC LOW...POPS DECREASE
LATE. MAX TEMPS AROUND 70F.

CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE XTND PD WL BE THE UPR TROF SITUATED
OVR THE NERN U.S. WED NGT-FRI. THIS WL ENSURE XTNSV CLD CVR FOR
THE AREA ALONG W/ CHCS FOR RAFL. HIGH TEMPS - IN THE 60S...WL BE
ABT TEN DEGS BLO NRML FOR ERLY MAY.

LOW IS XPCTD TO LIFT TO THE NE SAT...BRINGING A RETURN VISIT FM
THE SUN. AFTN HTG COULD BRING A CHC OF RW/TRW SAT. A CD FNT MAY
PUSH THRU THE RGN SUNDAY AND BRING ANOTHER CHC FOR PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LIFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE MORNING AS COLD AIR DAMMING SLOWLY
BREAKS. COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH BETTER
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
FRONT STALLS.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION
TAPERING OFF LATE TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED MARGINAL CONDS.

LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCE SHOWERS.

XTNSV CLD CVR WL BE IN THE FCST OVR THE MID ATLC WED NGT-
FRI...SUB-VFR CIGS MAY BE PSBL AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS OVER THE WATERS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MAY WARRANT SPECIAL
MARINE WARNINGS...PARTICULARLY THIS EVENING.

WINDS XPCTD TO STAY BLO SCA LVLS DURG THE SECOND HALF OF THE WK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DCZ001.
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ004>006-
     011-013-014-503>508.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>031-
     036>040-050>055-501-502-505>508.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...JACKSON
PREVIOUS...WOODY!/JACKSON


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