Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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FXUS61 KLWX 281432 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1032 AM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

High pressure will remain over the Mid Atlantic through Monday before
moving offshore. A cold front will move through the area Wednesday
night. High pressure returns for late in the week.


.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...High pressure sfc and aloft will
continue to dominate the region through Mon although it will start
weakening later tonight. This will continue to suppress convective
development over much of the region except over the Appalachians
mtns where a stray t-storm or two are possible. NHC will begin
issuing advisories on TD#8 located southwest of Bermuda at 11AM
as indicated in their special tropical wx outlook released at
1015AM. All guidance keep this system far away from our area
through the next 72 hrs with no impacts expected.


Approaching weak front with shortwave will result in slightly warmer
and more humid conditions on Monday...but not heat advisory levels.
Forcing and greater instability also likely to result in a better
chance of t-storms...though think they stay mainly NW of the metro.
Some may drift into the metro or fire on boundaries near the metro
during the evening. This boundary sags south and weakens on Tuesday
and the forcing mostly passes us. Thus overall a lesser chance of t-
storms Tuesday with slightly cooler temps...but with the boundary
hanging up in central VA these areas may actually have a better shot
at storms.


Expect high temperatures to climb to around 90 again Wednesday to
end both the month and meteorological summer. See the climo stats
below for the summer so far.

A cold front dropping into the area may bring a threat for
showers and thunderstorms closer to the metro areas Wednesday

A showLight winds and no risk of storms through early Monday. Risk of
storms increases late Monday into Monday evening. Risk declines
Tuesady. Winds stay sub-SCA Monday and or thunderstorm
will remain possible Thursday across southern portions of the area
as some models/ensembles are slower with the southward progress of
the cold front. Temperatures will take a drop to begin September
with highs in the low to mid 80s. Thursday night will provide some
of the most comfortable temperatures area has experienced
recently. Lows will drop into the low to mid 60s east of the Blue
Ridge...and mid to upper 50s west.

Friday should see highs in the lower 80s then rising for the
holiday weekend. Fly in the ointment is that the Euro is
projecting low pressure moving over the Outer Banks next Saturday
night. This model keeps this east of the CWA but holiday travelers
should keep an eye on the development in the days ahead.


Chance of t-storms nil at terminals today. Patchy fog mainly
inland again tonight then a better risk of mainly inland t-storms
on Monday. Something may drift towards metro terminals during the
eve. Risk of t-storms looks a little lower Tuesday in the metro
and MRB but may be higher CHO where front hangs up.

VFR Wednesday. A thunderstorm is possible Wednesday afternoon as
a cold front approaches.


Light winds and no risk of storms through early Monday. Risk of
storms increases late Monday into Monday evening. Risk declines
Tuesady. Winds stay sub-SCA Monday and Tuesday.

Winds below SCA values Wednesday. Thunderstorms will be possible
during the late afternoon/evening.


Ranking of summer 2016 in terms of average temperature (JUN 1 - AUG 27)

Site          Rank                    Average Temperature

DC   3   80.5
Balt          18  77.3
IAD            3                            77.3




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