Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 160553
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
153 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
HOWEVER...THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN MOSTLY TO OUR
NORTH AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE OFF TO OUR SOUTH.
THEREFORE...ANY SHOWERS THAT DO OCCUR WILL BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE
AND BRIEF. BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS
AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ESPECIALLY THE BALTIMORE METRO AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST TUESDAY AND A NORTHWEST
FLOW IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
MIDWEST. MAX TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY
DUE TO A DEEP MIXING LAYER AND INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...BUT COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A REINFORCING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THE HIGH SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TO
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...DESPITE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
OVERHEAD. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO DURING THIS TIME
DUE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.

THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL
BE WEAK AND LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT A DRY FORECAST CONTINUES FOR NOW
SINCE COVERAGE WOULD BE LIMITED AT BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PIECE OF ENERGY WILL TRY TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF MOISTURE...WE HAVE POPS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING DRY
CONDITIONS IN THE REGION.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION MONDAY...KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
PICTURE DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. A COUPLE
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY. THE
BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE CIGS. HV ALREADY DROPPED INTO MVFR ACRS
CENTRL VA IN ADVC OF THE FNT. THE CHO TERMINAL IS AFFECTED. WHILE
THINK THE AREAL CVRG WL BE INCRSG...DO NOT HV HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
ANY ADDTL TERMINALS WL BE IMPACTED. IAD WL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE
CLD SHIELD...AND INTRODUCED A CPL HR BKN030 AT THE BGNG OF THE
MRNG PUSH. OTRW...AM PERSERVING VFR ATTM. FURTHER...DO NOT FORSEE
IFR.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. PATCHY BR IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT THE BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK SO
IT WILL HAVE A LIMITED IMPACT ON THE TERMINALS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. AHD OF THE
FNT...SLY CHANNELING HAS BROUGHT 20-25 KT GUSTS TO TPLM2. POST-
FROPA...NWLY FLOW WL MIX BETTER INVOF PRES RISES. MARGINAL CASE OF
20 KT GUSTS. HV ADJUSTED SCA TO BEGIN AT THE CURRENT TIME FOR THE
MAIN CHANNEL OF THE BAY AND TANGIER SOUND. THEN...A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A REINFORCING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE
IN THE WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED ON THE BAY...MARKING A SLOW
DECREASE OF HIGH TIDE AT ANNAPOLIS. WE/VE MANAGED TO DROPPED BELOW
ADVY CRITERIA...BARELY. TO THE SOUTH...TIDE HAS PASSED AND WATER
LEVELS ARE SAFELY BELOW CRITERIA. ALLOWED THE CSTL FLOOD ADVY TO
EXPIRE.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOULD HAVE
NW WINDS CAUSING BLOW OUT CONDITIONS BY THE TIME THE NEXT HIGH TIDE
ARRIVES. WATER MAY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WRT ASTRO NORMS...BUT NO
PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ530-531-535>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ532>534-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...KRW/BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...HTS/BJL
MARINE...HTS/BJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS







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