Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 280029

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
729 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

.UPDATE...Evening Update.



Unsettled weather will continue across the Midsouth overnight as
a weak upper level low remains in place. ample deep level moisture
will result in heavy rainfall rates...likely over 2 inches per
hour. Luckily the storms are expected to be progressive...and do
not appear likely to train over any particular region. will
continue to monitor conditions for the need of a Flash Flood
Watch...but feel like most of the area can handle 2-3 inches of
rain without any widespread problems.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 621 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016/

Unsettled weather will be the main story across the Mid-South for
the next several days. Weak tropical upper low continues moving
slowly north along the AR/MS border. Daytime heating and upper low
combined to produce SHRA/TSRA. Currently most numerous west of the
MS River, but another area getting organized near and south of our
southeastern counties.

Upper low to continue lifting out tonight, with a larger-scale
trough settling generally over the OH Valley area. Expect
SHRA/TSRA to continue, with high PWAT values favorable for
efficient/locally heavy rain. Will hold off on flash flood watch
for now given expected localized nature of heavy rain, but will
highlight heavy rain threat in social media and messaging.

Upper trough to remain in place over the Mid-South through Sunday.
Several small vort maxes to rotate through the upper trough. At this
time, best estimate of timing looks to be Thursday afternoon/eve,
Friday night, and Saturday night/early Sunday. Timing of such subtle
features is challenging at best, so will broad-brush chance /30-50/
POPs and further evaluate as events get closer.

Upper ridge builds back over the area early next week. This will
bring warmer temps and a return to more scattered/diurnal POPs.



.AVIATION...00Z TAF Period

Showers and Thunderstorms will continue to affect all TAF sites
this period...with conditions bouncing between mainly VFR and
MVFR. TUP will have the best threat for brief IFR weather.
Believe coverage will start to wane at JBR and MEM later in the
cycle. Light winds will start off southeast through south outside
of convection. Winds will veer more southwest at 7-10kts.



.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

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