Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KMEG 161203
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
703 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
WITH RH`S AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. A SLOW MOVING WEAK COLD FRONT
HAD JUST ENTERED NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI AND
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...HOWEVER RADAR SHOWED THAT LINGERING SHOWERS
WERE RUNNING WEST TO EAST WELL OUT AHEAD...FROM SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
TO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA WAS DRY WITH SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S...WITH MOST
STATIONS REPORTING CALM WINDS.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE CURRENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE MIDSOUTH TODAY SPARKING OFF A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS...BUT
BELIEVE THEY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE AND THE CLOUD
COVER WILL BE THE MAIN CULPRIT/HINDRANCE. FOR TONIGHT SKIES WILL
PARTIALLY CLEAR OVER THE NORTH AND EAST WHERE THE GREATEST SHORT
TERM DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE. LIGHT NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL COOL
OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE LOW AND MID 50S NORTH AND EAST...WITH
WARMER 60S IN THE SOUTHWEST DELTA REGION.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN IN THE
MIDSOUTH. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATE
WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
ENERGY WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE OZARKS/ARKLATEX WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY. HAVE RAISED POPS
SLIGHTLY OVER THE AREA...WITH THE DELTA COUNTIES HAVING THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR A SOAKING RAIN. HAVE ALSO LOWERED HIGHS ON
THURSDAY A FEW DEGREES TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE. NOT SURE YET HOW
MUCH THUNDER MAY ACCOMPANY THE WAVE AS THERE IS SOME MODEL
DISPARITY REGARDING ELEVATED CAPE AMOUNTS...OR THE LACK THERE OF.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN THEIR EXIT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS HEIGHTS BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THIS PERIOD APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST AND
DRIEST AS AN UPPER RIDGE TRACKS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES TO THE MID AND UPPER
80S...WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID SEPTEMBER. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE MODELS DEPICT THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM ODILE SURGING INTO THE PLAINS AND PHASING WITH A
THE NEXT DIVING SHORTWAVE/CLOSED LOW.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE MIDSOUTH THIS PERIOD AS
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THE NEXT WAVE CROSSES THE REGION.
SURPRISINGLY THE TIMING IS PRETTY MUCH UNIFORM BETWEEN THE GFS AND
EURO WITH THIS FEATURE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER
70S AND LOW 80S FOR SUNDAY. SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTH MONDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS AREAWIDE.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

LOW END MVFR CIGS MIXED AT TIMES WITH IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE LOW
DECKS WILL SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MOST AREAS
RETURNING BACK TO VFR BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THESE LOW CLOUDS
ARE BEHIND A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 7 KTS BUT TURN NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED MAINLY
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT LOW CLOUDINESS
COULD FILL BACK IN THIS EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE STILL TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE LATEST TAF FORECAST. THIS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR VSBYS MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN FOG AT ALL
LOCATIONS EXCEPT KMEM.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.