Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 261743 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1242 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Updated for 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1055 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

A weak upper level disturbance associated with an area of mid level
moisture is quickly moving through the region this morning. This
disturbance is resulting in isolated showers and sprinkles more
reminiscent of fall than summer in the Mid-South. This area of
moisture will quickly head into middle TN and AL this afternoon. As
a result sunshine will increase and temps, which are mainly in the
lower 70s now, will pop back up into the 80 to 85 degree range.
Another disturbance upstream over northern Missouri could bring a
threat of showers back into Northeast Arkansas as early as this
evening and across the remainder of the northern tier of the Mid-
South into tonight.

SJM

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 332 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017/

A weak cold front is moving across the Midsouth...currently
located along a line from Paris, TN to Jonesboro to Little Rock.
Light rain showers have developed along the boundary in central
Arkansas tracking to the East. Portions of the Midsouth including
the Memphis Metro area may see a bit of light rain around sunrise
this morning. Any accumulation should be minimal. Temperatures
will remain seasonably mild today. Temperatures this morning will
range from the upper 50s to upper 60s with afternoon highs in the
low to middle 80s.

Fairly quiet weather is expected over the next few days. Latest
guidance continues to trend warmer after midweek...and is now
looking a bit wetter by Thursday with enhanced pops continuing
through next weekend. Northwest flow today and tomorrow will
deamplify by midweek becoming zonal across the Midsouth. Surface
high pressure will set up along the East coast resulting in
return flow over the Southern Mississippi River Valley.
Temperatures are now expected to rebound to near normal by
Wednesday...near 90 degrees. Afternoon thunderstorms will become
increasingly likely after midweek. The midsouth will be on the
Northwest edge of High pressure centered over the Deep South with
a shallow trough over the Western Great Lakes/Northern Plains. A
series of disturbances will track to our North with a cold front
stalling to our North late in the work week. Scattered
thunderstorms...most numerous in the afternoon are expected
Thursday through the weekend. Temperatures will be near to
slightly below normal.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

/18z TAFs/

Dissipating area of -SHRA should mainly stay north of KTUP this
afternoon. Otherwise, VFR expected this afternoon and into the
evening with 100-120 SCT-BKN. A shortwave in the northwest flow
aloft should move over TAF sites overnight. Upper support should be
strongest at KJBR and KMKL, so will include tempo SHRA and cigs 030-
040 for portions of the 03-09Z period. Will keep VCSH at KMEM, and
believe precip should stay north of KTUP. Winds generally less than
6 kts for most of the forecast.
GW

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$



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