Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 221738
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1238 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

UPDATE...MORNING UPDATE.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING VERY CLOSE TO WHERE THEY WERE 24 HOURS
AGO IN A VIRTUALLY IDENTICAL ATMOSPHERE. EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OUT
GENERALLY AROUND 95 TO 97 DEGREES WITH HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100
AND 104. A FEW AREAS MAY BRIEFLY REACH 105...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
AND HEAT ADVISORY FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
WILL REMAIN DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY SEE A
DEGREE INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DEWPOINTS REMAIN MORE
CHALLENGING TO PIN DOWN...GIVEN THE DEEP AFTERNOON MIXING LAYER.
NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS FROM CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S TODAY...WITH HEAT INDICES
PEAKING AT 100 TO 104 OVER MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. WITH THIS IN
MIND... AND THE THE FACT THAT MOST AREAS WERE COOLER THAN 75 THIS
MORNING...HAVE DECIDED AGAINST A HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAY BE A DIFFERENT STORY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIM UNDER THE HEIGHT RIDGE. SOME WEAKER
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION MAY EDGE INTO THE TN RIVER VALLEY BY SUNDAY...
AS THE RIDGE MIGRATES TO THE WEST A BIT.

FOR THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIODS...STRENGTHENING RETURN
FLOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER TROF OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
BEST CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY ENHANCED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO
THE MS RIVER DELTA BY TUESDAY. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL ERODE
FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS AND
STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE.

MIDLEVEL TROF PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
OCCUR THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL END THROUGH THE DAY...
AS DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR SETTLES IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL
SITES. THERE MAY BE TEMPORARY MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS IN FOG AT KMKL
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 7 KTS OR LESS.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







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