Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMEG 042315
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
615 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER CONTIGUOUS U.S.
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. IN THE INTERIM...A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL LIFT
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING...TO THE MIDATLANTIC COAST. THE
MIDSOUTH WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND LITTLE TO NO CHANCES OF RAIN FOLLOWING THIS
AFTERNOON/S SHOWERS EAST OF MEMPHIS.

THE OMEGA BLOCK WILL BREAK DOWN ON SATURDAY...AS THE EASTERN U.S.
UPPER LOW IS OVERTAKEN BY NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW BRIEF UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD INTO
THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...BRINING WARMER AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPS
TO THE MIDSOUTH THIS WEEKEND.

BY SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL DOWNSTREAM FROM AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE
MIDSOUTH BY EARLY MONDAY...AS DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES ARE EJECTED FROM THE MAIN UPPER LOW TO THE WEST. PERSISTENT
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR CONTINUED
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK...MODULATED BY
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES LIFTING INTO
THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF SET

LINGERING SHRAS NEAR KTUP WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT. STRATO-CU AROUND 4000-5000 FT
WILL LIKELY BEGIN REDEVELOPING AROUND 15Z. EXPECT KMKL AND KTUP TO
GO BKN BETWEEN 18-21Z. STRONG AND GUSTY N-NW WINDS BEHIND COLD
FRONT WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT THEN PICK BACK UP AROUND 15Z.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 16-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 28 KTS CAN BE
EXPECTED.

KRM

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



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