Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 231126
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
626 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR NEW ORLEANS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
TODAY. ALTHOUGH...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR BY
MID-MORNING WITH CHANCES INCREASING BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER.

MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. EXPECT
SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TO AFFECT NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL THIS
MORNING. CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS AREA
AND INTO NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MIDSOUTH TONIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI BY THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...PLEASANT WEATHER WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
FRONT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE MIDSOUTH. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST
BY FRIDAY BUT EVEN THOUGH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY THE DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THUS NOT FEELING AS WARM.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

BEAUTIFUL WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE BEGINNING AND MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS LIKELY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING ENHANCING RAIN CHANCES.
HOWEVER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SIGNIFICANT. WILL INCLUDE VCSH OR VCTS AT JBR AND TUP AND JBR.
WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND AMEND MEM IF IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS
WILL IMPACT THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY FOR MOST OF THE
DAY...SHIFTING FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







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