Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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000
FXUS66 KMFR 301621
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
921 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NO UPDATES NECESSARY THIS MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER REMAINS ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE COAST AND IS LIKELY TO TAKE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS
AFTERNOON TO RECEDE TO NEAR THE BEACHES NEAR BROOKINGS AND ALONG
THE COOS COAST.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MODOC AND SOUTHEASTERN LAKE COUNTIES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE, ANOTHER ROUND OF RECORD BREAKING HEAT WILL BE THE MAIN
IMPACTING WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL LOOKS AS IF IT WILL PROBABLY INCREASE FIRST OVER
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK, AND
THEN POSSIBLY A BIT FURTHER NORTHWESTWARD AS WE GO INTO THE
WEEKEND. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/12Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL BURN BACK TO THE COAST BY LATE MORNING
TUESDAY...THEN CLEAR A BIT OFFSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OVER INLAND
AREAS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A THERMAL TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN NEAR THE COAST TODAY AND THEN
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ADVISORY LEVEL NORTH
WINDS AND STEEP SEAS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TODAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. GALES AND VERY STEEP
HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL DEVELOP IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS THERMAL TROUGH
WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER UTAH THIS MORNING...AND UPPER
RIDGING WILL EXTEND WESTWARD AND BUILD WITH TIME...REACHING OUR
CWA AS A 595DM HIGH ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES. WE HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY AT NPWMFR FOR WEST SIDE
INTERIOR VALLEYS. DAILY RECORDS WILL LIKELY BE BROKEN...WITH
THURSDAY BEING THE HOTTEST DAY. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST ABOVE THE LAST ROUND OF RECORD
BREAKING TEMPERATURES THAT OCCURRED LATE LAST WEEK. IN
GENERAL...THIS HEAT EVENT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A ONCE IN 5 YEAR
EVENT. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS WILL BE THE HOTTEST JUNE ON RECORD FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH PREVIOUS RECORDS BEING DESTROYED BY 3-4
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE MINIMAL TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY...MOISTURE...OR SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY.
TODAY WE HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER MAINLY MODOC AND LAKE
COUNTIES DUE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRANSITING FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST...AND 850MB COMPUTED LI VALUES NEAR ZERO. TOMORROW THE
SHORTWAVE SWINGS FURTHER NORTH...AND WE HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FAVORED AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
CASCADES NORTH OF CRATER LAKE.

BY THURSDAY THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS RIGHT OVERHEAD...AND THIS WILL
KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONFINED TO CALIFORNIA AND LIMITED TO
SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH SOME INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE BUT LITTLE TO NO
TRIGGER.

MODELS DIVERGE SOME FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
EC REMAINING PLAIN HOT WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS GRADUAL COOLING BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
     ORZ023.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
     ORZ024-026.

CA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
     CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
  PZZ350-356.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT
  WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
  PZZ370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM PDT FRIDAY
  FOR PZZ370-376.
- GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ376.
- HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

BTL/NSK/RES


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