Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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000
FXUS66 KMFR 041434
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
635 AM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN QUIET AND DRY FOR
MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK, LONGER TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL SUGGEST
THAT A STRONG WET TROUGH IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MORE ON THAT LATER. THE MAJOR FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE STEADILY WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A
SOUTHERLY MARINE LAYER PUSH ALONG THE COAST.

TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE NEXT WEEK,
WITH LOWS NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL QUICKLY WARM TO THE LOW 60S ON
THE WEST SIDE AND THE LOW TO MOD 50S EAST OF THE CASCADES. THIS IS
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE WHAT WE WOULD EXPECT THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL STEADILY WARM EVEN FURTHER,
REACHING A PEAK SATURDAY AND SUNDAY OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS. THIS MEANS HIGHS WEST OF THE CASCADES NEAR OR
AROUND 70 DEGREES AND IN THE MID 60S ON THE EAST SIDE.

MEANWHILE, SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST, PUSHING
AREAS OF FOG, LOW CLOUDS, AND PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE INTO AREAS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING. THIS LAYER
OF CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND UNTIL OFFSHORE FLOW
RETURNS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. FOG COULD ALSO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO SOME OF THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
ALTHOUGH THIS LATE IN THE SEASON, DO NOT EXPECT CLOUDS TO LAST
LONG OR BE WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE.

ASIDE FROM INCREASED CLOUDS RESULTING FROM THE PASSAGE OF A VERY
WEAK TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL UNTIL A
VIGOROUS TROUGH MAKES AN INLAND PUSH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. THERE
IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS SYSTEM, AS THERE IS
LITTLE MODEL AGREEMENT CONCERNING TIMING OR STRENGTH. DO NOT HAVE
A GREAT DEAL OF CONFIDENCE IN EITHER THE GFS OR ECMWF SOLUTIONS,
AS BOTH HAVE CONSISTENTLY PRODUCED A SYSTEM AT A WEEK OUT THAT
NEVER SEEMS TO MATERIALIZE. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, HAVE OPTED FOR
A GENERAL BLEND OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS, WHICH PRODUCES A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF FURTHER FORECAST SHIFTS PUSH BACK THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION EVEN FURTHER.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 04/12Z TAF CYCLE...EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG SOUTH OF KRBG THAT MAY BUILD BRIEFLY INTO THE AIRPORT
THIS MORNING... THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. -SVEN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 6 AM PST, WEDNESDAY, 4 MAR, 2015...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE AND A THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WILL KEEP NORTH WINDS
AND STEEP SEASON GOING THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE THERMAL TROUGH WEAKENS AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT ON
FRIDAY. -SVEN


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     PZZ376.

$$

BPN/FJB



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