Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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000
FXUS66 KMFR 310607
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1000 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...EVENING UPDATE. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE GRANTS PASS
AND ROSEBURG ARE WILL BECOME LOWER AND MORE DENSE QUICKLY TONIGHT
WITH THE MEDFORD AREA SEEING A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT. CURRNE FORECAST
ON TRACK AND WILL NOT UPDATE THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW CLOUDS AROUND GRANTS PASS AND UMPQUA BASIN
ARE SLOW TO BREAK UP AND IT`S POSSIBLE IT REMAIN OVERCAST IN THESE
AREAS INTO THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE THE CLOUDS IN LAKE COUNTY ARE
BREAKING UP AND IT SHOULD CLEAR OUT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
ELSEWHERE IT`S CLEAR.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE SAME LOCATIONS AS THIS
MORNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING. SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR EAST OF THE CASCADES.

FINALLY WE`LL SEE A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN STARTING TO UNFOLD
SUNDAY. THE FIRST OF TWO FRONTS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INLAND, SO WERE NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF QPF, BUT MOSTLY
INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN. HOWEVER THE FRONT SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO MIX OUT THE ATMOSPHERE WITH THE AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY FINALLY
COMING OT AN END.

WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH RESULTING IN A BRIEF
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION, THEN A SECOND AND STRONGER FRONT ARRIVES
MONDAY MORNING SPREADING MORE RAIN INTO THE AREA. QPF AMOUNTS WITH
THE SECOND FRONT WILL BE HIGHER ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL
RANGE, COAST AND CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH ONLY
CRATER LAKE EXPECTED TO GET ACCUMULATING SNOW.

THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AND WILL BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS
ON TUESDAY WILL BE TRICKY AND MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT
POSITION OF THE FRONT. FOR NOW KEPT SNOW LEVELS HIGH EXPECT FOR
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS
MAY BE NEEDED DEPENDING ON HOW THE MODELS TREND WITH THE LOCATION
OF THE FRONT.

THE GFS SHOWS THE FRONT LIFTING NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. THE EC KEEPS
THE FRONT OVER THE AREA, THEN LIFTING NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE ALL POINTING TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE`S EVEN EVIDENCE
WE`LL HAVE A DECENT WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY PER THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. SO
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WE`LL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS AND HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS HIGHER TO REFLECT THIS. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 31/06Z TAF CYCLE...WEST SIDE VALLEYS WILL
FALL BACK INTO IFR TO LIFR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AGAIN TONIGHT,
PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE CLEARING AROUND 21Z.
EXPECT CLEARING TO BE FASTER TOMORROW DUE TO A LOWER INVERSION AND
FAVORABLE WIND TRAJECTORY. AREAS OF IFR TO MVFR LOW CLOUDS WITH
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL IMPACT FAR NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND
LAKE COUNTY NORTH AND EAST OF LAKEVIEW TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE, VFR
PREVAILS, INCLUDING THE COAST AND 5 NM FROM SHORE. SVEN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 900 PM PST FRIDAY, JANUARY 30, 2015... HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH STRENGTHENING ALONG THE COAST
WILL CONTINUE BRING MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND A PERIOD OF STEEP SEAS
TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. THE THERMAL TROUGH
AND HIGH WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL THEN
APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE WATERS ON SUNDAY BRINGING
WEAK SOUTH WINDS...WITH MODERATE WEST SWELL BUILDING LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL FRONTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH GALES POSSIBLE BEGINNING THURSDAY. SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ376.

$$



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