Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 172106
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
406 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF SATURDAY
AND MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY. A STRONGER LOW WILL MOVE
NORTH OF THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TOWARD MORNING WHICH WILL REINFORCE
THE COOL AIR IN PLACE OVER EASTERN NC. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO
THE MID/UPPER 30S OVER MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL SPREAD OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY IN A FAST
ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR HIGHS...SOME 10-12 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY`S READINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY...MEANWHILE A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD CROSS THE REGION.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S/MID
50S ON FRIDAY.

ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN A
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW THIS WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE THE
LOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TX/GULF OF MEXICO BORDER AND
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE GULF STATES ON SATURDAY. LOW IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY OFF THE SE COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS AS 12Z/GFS HAS THE LOW A FARTHER AWAY FROM THE NC COAST AND
00Z/ECMWF HAS IT CLOSER. OVERALL...BOTH MODELS ARE DEPICTING A WEAK
SYSTEM AND IMPACTS REMAIN SMALL FOR THE AREA...AT THIS TIME. EXPECT
RAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT MORNING...THEN TAPERING OFF SUNDAY
MORNING. SUN WILL MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE...AS LOW MOVES OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT LOW SYSTEM
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP MONDAY MORNING DRY AND STARTING POPS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER DYNAMICS INCREASE TUE AS
THE LOW WILL LIKELY PUSH NORTHEAST...AND STRONG UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. STRONG LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED
OVER THE GREAT LAKE REGION AND WILL PUSH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MID WEEK BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS ARE SUGGESTING HIGHS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK...IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY MID 30S TO 40S.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THIS TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT DESPITE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FRI. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND WITH LIKELY
POSSIBLE OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS
EVENING WITH SEAS GENERALLY 1 TO 3 FEET. WINDS INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND LEAD TO A PERIOD OF WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS LATER
TONIGHT WITH SEAS INCREASING TO 3 TO 5 FEET LATE. EXPECT GENERALLY
NW/N WINDS ON THURSDAY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 2 UP TO 5
FEET OVER THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM WED...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY FROM
THE NW. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NW 10-15 KTS WITH SEAS 2-3 FT.
USED A BLEND OF BOTH WW3 AND NWPS AS NWPS WAS SLIGHTLY OVERDONE WITH
THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOW TO IMPACT THIS WEEKEND. MODELS
HAVE THE LOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TX/GULF OF MEXICO
BORDER AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE GULF STATES ON SATURDAY. ITS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OFF THE SE COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS
WILL BE N/NE WINDS 10-15KT EARLY SAT AND PEAKING 15-20KTS LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. FLOW BECOMES N/NE 10-15 ON MONDAY. WAVES WILL
INCREASE 3-4 FT SATURDAY AND PEAKING 5 FT...NORTH OF OCRACOKE. AT
THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE MONITOR IF SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...CTC/BM
MARINE...CTC/BM





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