Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 240204

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1004 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

High pressure will continue south of the region through Monday. A
dry cold front will move offshore Monday night followed by high
pressure through the middle part of next week. A cold front will
approach from the west on Thursday and cross the area Friday. High
pressure will build over the region next weekend.


As of 1000 PM significant changes with this update. a
ridge of high pressure extending over the area from the southwest
will slowly weaken tonight as a cold front well to the N slowly
approaches the area. We should have enough of a gradient to keep a
a light breeze inland with stronger flow near the coast. Mixing
will lead to a bit milder temps with lows ranging from mid 40s
cooler inland spots to mid/upr 50s OBX.


As of 230 PM Sunday...Dry cold front will approach from the NW
thru the morning then pass through the area in the aftn. Main
surge of cooler air will hold off til tomm evening so cont to
expect mild temps in the 75 to 80 dgr range with cont mainly sunny


As of 330 AM Sun...Long term period will feature mainly dry
conditions and more seasonably cool late October temperatures.
Next chance of showers does not arrive until late in the week.

Monday Night...Winds turn NW behind the dry front Mon night with
temps dropping back into the 40s (50s beaches).

Tuesday through Thursday...Seasonably cool conditions for this
period as Canadian high pres ridges into the region from the
north bringing high temps 65-70 under sunny skies. Night time
temps will be cool as ideal radiational cooling in place with
clear and calm conditions. Lows will be in the 40s across the
interior with 50s on the beaches.

Thursday Night into Friday...Maintained the chance of rain
showers for this period as next progressive short wave appears set
to translate across the Eastern CONUS. The 23/00Z operational GFS
continues to be a drier outlier with continued lack of support
from the CMC/ECMWF, as well as its NCEP ensemble mean. Bulk of the
energy should pass across the Mid Atlantic states so not expecting
too much rain with this system. Temps will warm back into the 70s
by day and 50s by night as return flow develops.

Saturday...Appears that heights/thicknesses do not fall all that
much behind the low amplitude progressive short wave and thus
temps appear like they will be above climo next weekend though at
this time conditions look to be on the dry side.


Short Term /Through Monday/...
As of 730 PM Sunday...High confidence of VFR conditions will
prevail through the TAF period and beyond. Dry high pressure will
continue to dominate the region and limit the development of fog
tonight. Light W to SW winds through much of the TAF period.
Continued potential for LLWS for KPGV/KISO as forecast soundings
are showing a brief increase of winds starting around 8z at around
2k ft.

Long Term /Monday Night through Thursday/...
As of 330 AM Sun...VFR SKC is expected over the area through
Thursday as dry high pressure prevails across the region. Winds
will be light through the period.


Short Term /Through Monday/...
As of 1000 PM changes with this update. With high
pressure to the south and low pressure well to the north expect
WSW winds at 10 to 20 kts overnight...highest central and northern
waters where some gusts 20 to 25 likely late. A dry cold front
will cross the region later Monday with flow becoming NW around
15 kts in the afternoon. Seas will continue at mainly 2 to 4
feet, however some 5 footers are expected in the outer central
and northern waters early this evening and again late tonight and
early Monday when winds peak.

Long Term /Monday Night through Friday/...
As of 330 AM Sun...Winds turn northerly and inc to 15-20 kt late
Mon night with marginal SCA conditions developing across the
northern and potentially central waters with the surge of N winds
building seas to around 6 ft. The winds and seas will diminish by
Tue afternoon as high pres begins to build in. The high will
remain north of the area through Thursday with NE winds generally
10-15 kt. Winds will turn E then SE late Thursday in advance of
next cold front.




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