Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 270142
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
942 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend over the area from offshore through
Friday night. A weak area of low pressure will approach from the
southeast Saturday then impact the southeast coast Sunday through
the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 942 PM Thursday...High pressure surface and aloft continues
to control the weather across eastern nc tonight. Diurnal cumulus
have dissipated with the loss of heating with clear skies now
expected overnight. Winds should decouple late tonight especially
over the southern portion of the area. No changes to the low
temperature forecast with readings in the lower to mid 60s
expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
As of 3 PM Thursday...Surface and upper ridge continue over the
area...while surface low strengthens north of the Bahamas...resulting
in another warm and dry day across Eastern NC. Low level winds
shift early Friday as high weakens over the area, becoming NE
south of Hatteras early...then becoming more SE across the entire
forecast area by afternoon. Low level thickness values support
highs in the low to upper 80s inland and lower 80s for the Outer
Banks.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 315 PM Thursday, latest operational and ensemble GFS/ECMWF
models continue in good agreement in showing potential
tropical/subtropical system to move slowly toward the coast and
move inland late in the weekend before slowly meandering N/NW
early next week. No real changes in current expected impacts for
eastern NC with enhanced chances of rain and a higher threat of
rip currents through midweek.

Friday night/Saturday...Ridge to extend west from Bermuda Friday
night into early Saturday which should delay the arrival of deeper
moisture in eastern NC. As tropical/subtropical low approaches the
coast, deeper moisture arrives in the afternoon Saturday with
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Seasonal temperatures are
expected with lows mid 60s and highs mid 80s.

Saturday night through Thursday...Consensus of medium range models
show circulation moving inland across SC Saturday night/Sunday
then meandering to our south and west before slowly moving north
and gradually and eventually dissipating by late week. Deep feed
of moisture associated with the surface low and the attendant
clumps of vorticity associated with the mid-level circulation
with lead to continuing high chance of showers and thunderstorms
from Saturday night into the middle of next week. As the surface
system slowly dissipates, rain chance should diminish starting
Wednesday into Thursday. Despite the high coverage of rain,
temperatures should be near normal with lows in the mid 60s and
highs in the mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term /Through Friday afternoon/...
As of 7 PM Thursday...VFR conditions expected to prevail through
the TAF period. Afternoon cu dissipating quickly this evening and
expect mainly clear skies overnight. Fog potential very low
overnight but cannot rule out patchy ground fog developing late...
however it should be brief and shallow and have minimal effects to
aviation. Sct cu possible inland Friday afternoon with bases aoa
5K ft.

Long Term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 320 PM Thursday...Surface/upper ridging should delay
arrival of precipitation into eastern NC until Saturday afternoon.
VFR conditions should prevail Friday night through midday
Saturday. With subtropical/tropical surface low pressure moving
into the SC coast late Saturday night/Sunday and meandering to our
south, increased moisture will lead to a good coverage of showers
and thunderstorms and likely periods of sub-VFR conditions from
Saturday afternoon into midweek.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Friday/...
As of 942 PM Thursday...S/SW winds will continue 5 to 15 kt
overnight over the waters with seas 2 to 3 ft as high pressure
surface and aloft remains over the waters through Friday night.
Weak pressure gradients will allow a land breeze to form early
Friday morning with winds veering to a northerly direction south
of Cape Hatteras. Winds are then expected to become more E to SE
around 5-15 knots across all the waters by afternoon with seas
remaining 2-3 feet.

Long Term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 325 PM Thursday, little change in the overall thinking for
the marine forecast at this time as potential subtropical/tropical
low pressure will move slowly toward the SC coast by late in the
weekend. Winds are expected to be SE/S at 10-15 knots through most
of the period. Guidance from SWAN/Wavewatch guidance indicate a
period of 4-6 foot seas will be possible, over mainly the central
and southern waters Saturday into Sunday, before subsiding to 3-5
feet Sunday through the middle of next week as the weak low
meander over South Carolina.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC/CQD
NEAR TERM...JME/SK/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/SK
MARINE...JME/CTC/CQD


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