Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
FXUS62 KMHX 220836
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
336 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2017
High pressure will extend over the area from offshore through
Friday. A cold front will move through on Saturday. High
pressure will build in Sunday then slide offshore Monday into
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday, widespread high cloudiness will remain
in place today across eastern NC as surface ridge continues
offshore. The combination of some weak mid-level energy and
moisture around the periphery of the ridge will lead to a slight
chance of a few showers over the far western CWA this afternoon.
This is shown by the NAM12 and NSSL WRF in particular. Any
rainfall amounts will be very light and coverage will be spotty.
Thicknesses support temperatures that are a few degrees warmer
than yesterday, despite the cloud cover, with highs in the
mid/upper 60s Outer Banks and low/mid 70s elsewhere.
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 335 AM Wednesday, whatever precipitation that is able to
form should end quickly, but with a moist SE flow and plentiful
cloud cover, would expect milder low temperature readings for
tonight. Lows should be in the mid 50s for most of the CWA, with
a few upper 50s along the Outer Banks, closer to the normal high
readings for late February.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 315 AM Wed...Spring-like pattern through the extended
with much above climo temps expected before a stronger front
moves through by late Saturday. Temps temporarily back down to
near climo second half of the weekend into beginning of the work
week next week then warming above avg mid week.
Thursday through Friday...Closed low tracks into the SW
Atlantic in vcnty of the Bahamas on Thur. This feature will be
far enough away with continued high pres ridging in from the
east bringing dry conditions to the area. Some iso showers may
skirt the OBX from time to time as moisture convergence inc a
bit over the coastal waters. Temps will warm further into the
mid/upr 70s interior zones Thursday and again on Friday, and
remain in the upr 60s immediate coast with light southeasterly
onshore flow. Low lvl thicknesses between 1370-1380 meters on
par with ECMWF MOS values, with GFS MOS a bit too warm. Lows
will be mild as well and remain in the 50s with increasing TD
vals and light E to SE winds bringing threat for patchy fog each
Saturday...Upr trf and deep sfc low will track through Quebec on
Sat, which will drag a cold front through E NC by Sat evening.
Good agreement amongst 22/00Z global model suite (ECM/GFS/CMC)
with respect to timing and available moisture with this system.
The aforementioned closed low across the SW Atlantic will cut
off rich GOM moisture advection ahead of this front, so very
little chance of precip with the fropa. This is evident with
model instability vals lower than this time yesterday. Have
trimmed back pops to just slgt chance and confined to wrn/nrn
portions of the FA. Sat looks like the warmest day of the period
as low lvl thicknesses rise to between 1380-1390 meters under
partly cloudy skies yielding highs around 80 for interior zones
which will threaten some record highs.
Sunday through Tuesday...Front will have swept offshore
bringing cooler/drier air courtesy of building high pres across
the region. Highs will be near climo in the 55-60 degree range
on Sunday. Lows drop back down into the 30s by Mon morning under
mo clear skies and calm winds. Monday will already begin a
warming trend once again as high pres shifts offshore and SW
flow sfc and aloft develops. Temps will rise through the 60s on
Monday. Further warming into Tuesday as heights/thicknesses rise
well above climo once again and yield high temps in the 70s
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short term /Through 06z Thursday/...
As of 1255 AM Wednesday, some patchy fog already being observed
at KEWN and will continue previous trend of showing some MVFR
vsbys in patchy fog through the early morning hours as low-level
flow becomes SE with minimal temperature/dewpoint spread. A few
areas of IFR/LIFR are also possible. Any fog should dissipate
fairly quickly Wednesday morning. Would expect to see some
scattered to broken ceilings in the 4000-5000 foot level during
the late morning into the evening hours on Wednesday. Patchy
showers will be possible, but mainly west of the TAF sites.
Long term /Thursday through Monday/
As of 315 AM Wed...Mainly VFR through the extended period as
high pres ridges into E NC from the Atlantic. Exception will be
during the overnights where patchy FG/BR possible with rising
dewpoints and light E to SE winds. Mainly dry cool front will
pass through late Sat with much drier/cooler air mass building
in Sunday. This will limit overnight fog threat Sat night
through Sun night.
Short Term /Today and Tonight/...
As of 340 Am Wednesday, winds are beginning to veer to more
ESE/SE but speeds remain at or below 10 knots. Some residual
swell continues around Diamond Buoy with combined seas are in
the 3-4 foot range with some 5 footer over the far outer waters.
Expect generally SE winds 5-10 knots and seas 3-4 feet today,
dropping off to 2-3 feet tonight. Minimal changes made to
Long Term /Thursday through Monday/
As of 315 AM Wed...Light winds forecast through Friday as
sprawling high pres ridges in from the east. Southeasterly swell
from a low pres near the Bahamas will build seas to 6+ feet
Friday night into Saturday, with SW winds increasing on
Saturday ahead of approaching cold front. The front will sweep
offshore Sat night with strong NW winds 20-30 kt developing in
its wake which will keep seas elevated. High pres builds into
the waters Sunday through Monday bringing diminishing winds/seas.