Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 021323
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
923 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES INTO THE REGION FROM OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM TUE...REMOVED MORNING POPS. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 400 AM TUE...PERSISTENCE FCST ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE TO SFC AND UPR LVL PATTERN FROM MONDAY. ISOLATED TSTMS
PSBL INLAND AND NRN SECTIONS THIS AFTN WITH SEA BREEZE/THERMAL
TROF INTERACTIONS.

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE HOT TEMPS WITH INLAND SECTIONS AND NRN OBX SEEING
MAX TEMPS 92-96...AND 87-91 FOR SRN BEACHES AND OBX S OF OREGON
INLET. HEAT INDICES WILL BE MAINLY AROUND 100 DEGS BUT A FEW
LOCATIONS WILL SEE HI PEAK AROUND 105 FOR AN HOUR OR SO...BUT NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT HEAT ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM TUE...ONLY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FCST WAS TO INCREASE POPS
OVERNIGHT TO 30% FOR NW HALF OF AREA. ANOTHER SHRT WV WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS NRN PORTION OF UPR RIDGE WITH GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON SCT
CONVECTIVE THREAT WRN AND NRN SECTIONS OVERNIGHT...AND ISOLATED
THREAT REST OF AREA. ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS
LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND NEAR 80 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUES...MINIMAL CHANGES FOR THE MORNING PACKAGE AS
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN AND
FEATURES INTO SATURDAY. WILL HAVE WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WED FOLLOWED
BY THE  SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA THURS INTO FRI.
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WED INTO THURS AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS
INTO AND STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN RATHER
WEAK WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER JET REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY INVOF THE FRONT WHERE BETTER SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL RESIDE. SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN
RATHER WEAK SO SEVERE CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW BUT COULD SEE LOCALLY
HEAVY PRECIP WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW AND HIGH PWATS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DISSIPATES LATE THURS INTO FRI WITH HIGH PRES STRENGTHENING
OFFSHORE AND EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FRI
INTO SAT.

THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIVERGE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LEADING TO
BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS CONTINUE TO BE
MORE PROGRESSIVE PUSHING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ON MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HANGS
THE FRONT UP JUST BARELY MAKING IT INTO OUR AREA. CONTINUE TO FOLLOW
CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE WHICH USES A BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF ENS MEANS
WHICH SLOWLY BRINGS THE FRONT INTO THE AREA AND JUST THROUGH ON
MONDAY. WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONT AND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD SEE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED. WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE WED WHEN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
ARE GREATEST. SLIGHT COOLING THURS WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER...
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREA WHERE NE/ELY FLOW EXPECTED NORTH OF THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...HOWEVER WINDS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT.
WILL SEE MORE OF A COOL DOWN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM TUE...LCL AREA OF IFR STRATUS CIGS AND VSBYSS FROM VCTY
KOAJ AND KDPL TO JUST W OF KEWN WILL LIFT AND BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS
MORNING. VFR EXPECTED MID MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SCT ACTIVITY PSBL OVERNIGHT WITH SHRT WV MOVING
IN AND INCLUDED A VCSH AT KPGV. PERSISTENCE FCST LATE TONIGHT WOULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS AT MOST TAF SITES AND IFR
VSBY/CIG AT KOAJ.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUES...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM ALTHOUGH PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ISOL-SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH BEST
CHANCES WED THROUGH THURS AS A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 AM TUE...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 400 AM TUE...CYCLICAL SW WINDS WITH BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROF
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15
KT THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING...DIMINISHING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

WW3 INITIALIZED BETTER WITH SEAS MAINLY AROUND 3 FT...AND ADJUSTED
FCST ACCODINGLY. HEIGHTS BUILDING TO AROUND 4 FT OUTER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NRN WATERS THIS AFTN AND EVENING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUES...THE BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL BRING S/SW WINDS
GENERALLY AROUND 5 TO 15 KT WED. A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE
REGION LATE WED THROUGH THURS BRINGING LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY 10 KT
OR LESS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY FRI WITH SLY FLOW
AROUND 5 TO 10 KT..INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT BY LATE SATURDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT WED SUBSIDE TO AROUND 2
FT THURS AND FRI WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS...THEN INCREASE
TO 2 TO 3 FEET SATURDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...HSA/JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JBM/SK
MARINE...JBM/SK





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