Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 070239
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
939 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SUNDAY AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE NC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON MONDAY. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL
BUILD IN TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 935 PM SAT...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1028MB HIGH PRESSURE
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST...WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE FL
COAST. NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR UPDATE.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE SOUTH OF THE
AREA...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH OVERNIGHT. A STRONG
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH STATES
OVERNIGHT, INDUCING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
COAST WITH A SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENING TO NEAR 1000 MB BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT WELL NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT, THOUGH SURFACE WINDS
WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY. LIGHT PRECIP WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING DUE TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. POPS
AND PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MIDNIGHT, THEN BEGIN
TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY SUNRISE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SATURATION OF THE SNOW GROWTH REGION BY 06Z THOUGH LOWER
LEVELS REMAIN DRIER. SURFACE TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT AROUND 33-36 F
ACROSS INLAND AREAS WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING SUPPORTING AT LEAST A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES FROM ROUGHLY
07-14Z. THOUGH GIVEN THE THICK CLOUD COVER AND WIND...SFC TEMPS
MAY NOT BE ABLE TO DROP LOWER THAN MID 30S. SURFACE WETBULB TEMPS
FALL TO NEAR ZERO LATE TONIGHT SUPPORTING FROZEN P-TYPE. LITTLE TO
NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, THOUGH CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF DUSTING LATE TONIGHT EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE RAIN OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT, HIGHEST
ACROSS THE CRYSTAL COAST/SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND OUTER BANKS
WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...THE STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL
EXIT OFF THE GA/FL COAST SUNDAY AND BECOME SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY
TILTED AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN SUNDAY, DROPPING TO SUB-990MB BY
LATE AFTERNOON WHEN IT IS PROGGED TO BE A FEW HUNDRED MILES OFF
THE SOUTHEASTERN NC COAST. A STRONG NORTHERLY/NORTHWESTERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW
AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30-40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH FOR THE
OUTER BANKS AND DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY, WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 40
MPH, GUSTING NEAR 45 MPH, FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 17
ADJACENT TO THE ALBEMARLE/PAMLICO SOUNDS. HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE
IN EFFECT FOR OUTER BANKS DARE/HYDE AND CARTERET COUNTIES. WIND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE SOUNDS
AND EAST OF HWY 17 WHERE SATURATED SOILS FROM A SYSTEM THAT
RECENTLY PRODUCED 3-5 INCHES OF RAIN, MAY LEAD TO A FEW DOWNED
TREES OR POWERLINES. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO PRODUCE MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS, SEE COASTAL FLOODING
SECTION BELOW.

THE LOW SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST QUICKLY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH THE AXIS OF HIGHEST
RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS CARTERET AND OUTER BANKS DARE/HYDE
COUNTIES. POPS INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL ALONG/EAST OF HWY 17 WITH
CHANCE FAR INLAND BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE RAIN/SNOW MIX
FOR GREEN/PITT/MARTIN COUNTIES THROUGH ROUGHLY 14Z WHERE EVAPORATIVE
COOLING MAY SUPPORT MIXED P-TYPE, THEN ALL LIQUID EXPECTED BY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPS WARM. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
RANGE NEAR ONE QUARTER INCH INLAND TO 1.5 INCHES ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. LOCALIZED FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR CARTERET/OUTER BANKS, BUT MAY NOT BE DISTINGUISHABLE
FROM COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
40S WITH LOW 50S ALONG THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...SUN NIGHT: A MAJOR AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL
OFF OF THE NC COAST SUN EVENING WILL BE MOVING RAPIDLY OUT TO SEA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. VERY STRONG WINDS/HEAVY COASTAL RAINS/COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD BUT WILL
BE WANING LATE AT NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY AND THE WINDS
DIMINISH AND PCPN ENDS.

MON THROUGH FRI: A DEEP EASTERN US UPPER TROUGH BECOMES
ESTABLISHED NEXT WEEK THOUGH THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
DEAMPLIFY TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH DURING THE PERIOD BUT DEEP WESTERLY
FLOW WILL TEND TO INHIBIT PCPN DEVELOPMENT. THE MODELS INDICATE
MARGINAL MOISTURE DEPTH FOR PCPN ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS LATE
MON THROUGH TUE SO WILL CARRY MINIMAL POPS BUT ANY PCPN WILL BE
LIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING FOR MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE
WEEK. THE MAIN RESULT OF THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL BE TO PRODUCE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 40S. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 50S
FRI AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES.

SAT: THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SIGNALING THAT THE EASTERN UPPER
TROUGH COULD RE-AMPLIFY NEXT WEEKEND SENDING A STRONG BUT DRY
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT
COLD CANADIAN AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM SAT...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY...WITH BKN-OVC MID
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY E OF THE TERMINALS.
RAIN WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY. COULD SEE A MIX OF -RA/SN AT ISO/PGV SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO PRED -RA. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING. COULD SEE PRED IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP
EARLY AFTERNOON MAINLY AT OAJ/EWN BUT KEPT MVFR FOR NOW. WINDS
INCREASING OVERNIGHT...BECOMING NORTHERLY WITH GUSTS 25-30KT BY
LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY N WINDS COULD RESULT IN
CROSSWIND IMPACTS FOR EWN RUNWAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...IMPROVING CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON BUT VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. DRY/VFR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS MONDAY...WEST
15-20 KNOTS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 935 PM SAT...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE N/NE
WINDS 10-15 KT NORTH OF OREGON INLET...AND INCREASING TO 15-25KT
SOUTH...WITH SEAS 4-6 FT. NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR UPDATE. A STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST LATE TONIGHT AND LIFT
NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AS IT DEEPENS BELOW 990 MB. PREVIOUS GALE WATCHES AND STORM
WATCHES HAVE BEEN REPLACED WITH GALE WARNINGS AND STORM WARNINGS.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 35-45 KT ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND
AND SOUTH OF OREGON INLET LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT, WHERE STORM WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT. ELSEWHERE, GALES
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERLY WINDS 25 TO 35 KT, WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 FT BY SUNDAY MORNING AND PEAK
AT 15-20 FT SUNDAY NIGHT. WAVES ACROSS THE EASTERN END OF THE
PAMLICO SOUND WILL INCREASE TO 3-6 FT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE NORTHERN
FLORIDA COAST WHICH WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS AND PAMLICO
SOUND WITH WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 20-30 KT RANGE. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 8-10 FEET BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
WATERS AND UP TO 6 FT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS. NO CHANGE TO
CURRENT MARINE HEADLINES, THOUGH CONVERSION FROM GALE WATCH TO
WARNING AND STORM WATCH TO WARNING EXPECTED WITH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...VERY POOR BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST...WITH WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND/OR ROUGH SEAS
ON THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS AND ONLY SLIGHTLY BETTER
CONDITIONS ON THE RIVERS. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY THE CAROLINA
COAST SUNDAY FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A FAST- MOVING FRONT MONDAY.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW SUNDAY WILL BACK TO NORTHWEST SUNDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK FURTHER TO WEST THEN SOUTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 630 PM SATURDAY...RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OFF OF THE NC COAST WILL PRODUCE GALE TO STORM FORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, LEADING TO MINOR TO MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL BE MAINLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND BASIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WATER
LEVELS OF 3 TO 5 FT ABOVE NORMAL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM AREAS
ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND/NEUSE RIVER ALONG DOWN EAST CARTERET
COUNTY (INCLUDING CEDAR ISLAND) TO OCRACOKE AND OVER PORTIONS OF
HATTERAS ISLAND VULNERABLE TO NORTHERLY WINDS. ADDED COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR CRAVEN COUNTY...WITH POSSIBLE WATER LEVEL RISES 2 TO
3 FT ABOVE NORMAL.

ON THE OCEAN SIDE, WATER LEVELS OF 3 TO 5 FT ABOVE NORMAL WILL
BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS. SHORE BREAK IN EXCESS
OF 10 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE AND THIS WILL LEAD TO BEACH EROSION AND
SOME OCEAN OVERWASH.

PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING/ADVISORY FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ046-
     047-080-081-092>094-098.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     NCZ095-103-104.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NCZ103-104.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NCZ095.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR NCZ093.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ136-
     137.
     STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ135.
     GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ130-
     131-150.
     STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ152-
     154.
     STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...CQD/DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/CQD/DAG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX


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