Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KMHX 041648
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1248 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM TUE...WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS ALG COASTAL SECTIONS
THIS AFTN WITH MENTION OF HVY RAFL PSBL AS HIGH RES MODELS CONT
SHOW BEST COVERAGE OF PRECIP THERE. ALREADY HAVE HAD SCT
CONVECTION ACRS INLAND AREAS. INCREASED POPS ACRS THE COASTAL
PLAIN TO CHC 25-40% POPS...WITH HIGHER CHC POPS ACRS INTERIOR
SXNS. ALSO MADE MINOR T/TD TWEAKS TO INIT.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. WELL DEFINED UPPER
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA AT PRESENT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THIS AFTN ALONG THE COAST.
SETUP SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO NEWPORT TO
JACKSONVILLE. SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES POSSIBLE AGAIN
THIS AFTN WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING PSBL. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE IN
FROM THE LOWER 90S INLAND TO THE MID AND UPR 80S COASTAL
SECTIONS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...SURFACE/UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS OUT QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AND HAVE TAPERED OFF PRECIP FROM THE WEST ACCORDINGLY.
EXPECT ALL OF THE AREA TO BE PRECIP-FREE AFTER 06Z. LOWS MAINLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...DRIER AND HOT WED AS HGTS ALOFT RISE A BIT WITH
LIMITED FORCING FOR PRECIP. COULD BE SOME SHRA NEAR CST EARLY
THEN WILL SEE SOME WDLY SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY
AND CONT INTO WED NIGHT AS STRONG HEATING PRODUCES DECENT INSTAB.
HIGHS WED AROUND 95 INLAND TO UPR 80S/LOW 90S CST. MUGGY WED NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

THURSDAY...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INLAND...COUPLED WITH SEA BREEZE INTERACTION, WILL LEAD TO A
BETTER CVRG OF SHRA/TSRA THURSDAY AFTN ESPCLY INLAND. WILL REMAIN
HOT WITH INLAND AREAS LOW TO MID 90S WITH UPR 80S TO AROUND 90
BEACHES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SCT SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED
THRU THIS PERIOD AS A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES WITH A
FRONTAL BNDRY NEAR OR JUST TO THE W. MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIP
COMBINED WITH LOWER THICKNESSES WILL KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 85
TO 90 DGR RANGE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...KEPT PREV FCST OF ONLY SLIGHT POPS WITH
UPR TRF SHIFTING OFF THE CST WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERING
OVER THE REGION. WILL CONT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES OF UPR 80S/AROUND 90 INLAND AND MID
80S CST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1245 AM TUE...SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY MORE
NMRS ALG COASTAL SECTIONS. HOWEVER...SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS PSBL AT
ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z TONIGHT. WINDS S 10-15 KNOTS THIS AFTN.
RAIN CHANCES END QUICKLY AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING WITH LOW CLOUDS
CLEARING OUT LEAVING SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SO SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AFTER AROUND
08Z.

LONG TERM /WED THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...MAINLY VFR WED THRU THU MORN WITH LIMITED
THREAT OF CONVECTION...AS USUAL PATCHY FOG/ST POSS EARLY IN THE
MORN. SHRA/TSRA SHLD INCREASE LATER THU AND CONT INTO SAT AS UPR
TRF DEVELOPS TO THE W WITH FRONTAL BNDRY IN THE AREA. WILL STILL
SEE MAINLY VFR HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME PDS OF SUB VFR WHEN
CONVECTION CROSSES. AREAS THAT GET RAINFALL WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE
MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1245 PM TUE...NO CHANGES NEEDED ON UPDATE. CURRENTLY S-SW
WINDS ACRS THE COASTAL WATERS AND SEAS LIKELY 3-6 FT. HIGHEST
WINDS AND SEAS ACRS THE SRN COASTAL WATERS WHERE A SCA IS NOW IN
EFFECT FROM OCRACOKE S. SCA FOR CNTRL COASTAL WATERS FROM OCRACOKE
TO OREGON INLET WILL BE IN EFFECT AT 3 PM THIS AFTN. MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM AND USED A BLEND OF THE 03/12Z
ECMWF AND 00Z GFS. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE COAST THIS
AFTN AND MOVE QUICKLY OUT TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS ALL ZONES THIS AFTN THEN VEERS TO
WEST TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE TONIGHT
AS LOW MOVES AWAY AND GRADIENT LOOSENS.

LONG TERM /WED THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...TRICKY FCST AS MDLS DIFFER ON TIMING AND
LOCATION OF WEAK FRONTS IN THE REGION MAKING WIND DIR/SPEED
DIFFICULT.

ANY LINGERING SCA SEAS SHLD END EARLY WED CNTRL WTRS WITH W WINDS
5 TO 15 KTS BECOMING MORE SW IN THE AFTN. BNDRY WILL SAG INTO THE
REGION WED NIGHT AND THU WITH SW WINDS CONT SRN TIER AND MORE E
WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE N...SPEEDS MAINLY BELOW 15 KTS. SEAS
OF 3 TO 5 FEET WED MORNING WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET LATE WED
AND THU. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE FRI AS AS STRONGER TROF/LOW
DEVELOPS TO THE W...FOR NOW HAVE SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KTS FRI
AFTN/EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT. AS FRONT REACHES
CST SAT WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH VARIABLE DIR...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
TO 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...JAC/HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...JAC/RF/HSA
MARINE...JAC/RF/HSA



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.