Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 230752
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
352 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY THEN
MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. A
SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL INTUITED STATES WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFF OF THE
COAST SHORTLY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE MOVING OFFSHORE
BEFORE SUNRISE WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TODAY. ALTHOUGH DECENT
COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY THIS WILL BE
OFFSET BY FULL SUNSHINE AND DOWN SLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THEREFORE
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR
THE OUTER BANKS WHERE READINGS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S. THE COLD
ADVECTION WILL AID DEEP MIXING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY INLAND DURING THE
EVENING EVENTUALLY DECOUPLING LATE. WITH SKIES REMAINING
CLEAR...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE STRONG AND THIS WILL PRODUCE
COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. THIS COULD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY LIGHT FROST IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT THE THREAT LOOKS TOO MARGINAL TO PUT IN
THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH
EASTERN NC THURS WHILE WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EAST OVER THE
REGION. WEAK CAA WILL RULE MOST OF THE DAY INHIBITING THICKNESSES
FROM BUILDING ABOVE 1350 METERS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON EVEN WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THUS MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE NEAR 70 INLAND TO
60 ALONG THE OBX COAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE LATE THURS INTO
THURS NIGHT WILL PRODUCE SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO INCREASE
MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FRI. THE FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN NC FRI
NIGHT WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES ENDING BY 06/09Z. TEMPS WARM TO
NEAR 80 INLAND ON FRI DUE TO PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW BUILDING
THICKNESSES TO 1375-1380 METERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PWATS INCREASE
TO NEAR 1.50 INCHES WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING WEAK
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING.

WINDS SHIFT W/WSW BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES BUILDING SAT ALLOWING TEMPS TO BUILD INTO THE LOW 80S
INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER TO TWO SAT NIGHT WITH A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NC FROM THE NORTH. THE
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL INDUCE MODERATE CAA IN N/NE FLOW WITH
THICKNESSES DROPPING TO 1350-1360 METERS SUN YIELDING HIGHS IN THE
LOW 70S INLAND TO 60S ALONG THE COAST/OBX...EVEN UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS WNW/NW SAT THROUGH MON.

SAT NIGHTS BACKDOOR FRONT WILL HANG UP WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
AND RETURN AS A WARM FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUES MORNING. CONTINUED
PREVIOUS TREND OF INCREASING POPS MON THROUGH TUES...THOUGH
DECREASED TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MON/MON NIGHT THEN CHANCE ON TUES
ONCE THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EASTERN NC. TEMPS SUN/MON/TUES
NIGHT REMAIN MILD DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS...AND MAX TEMPS MON/TUES
SLOWLY INCREASE DUE TO WINDS SHIFTING SE/S THOUGH REMAINING BELOW
CLIMO SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PREFRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED
AND NO ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AFTER 06Z. DRY
AND COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL AID MIXING AND
PRODUCE GUSTY NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AFTER SUNRISE. EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AROUND MIDNIGHT. SKIES
MAINLY SKC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WINDS GUST 20-25 MPH AS MIXING
INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC FRI NIGHT
WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT SHIFTING WINDS N/NE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...FRONT MOVING OFF OF THE COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH THE FLOW SHIFTING TO NW 15 TO 25 KT NECESSITATING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE AND THE
PAMLICO SOUND. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATTE TODAY TO 10 TO
20 KT BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY SURGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS.

LATEST NWPS WAVE FORECAST BUILDS SEAS TO 5 TO 8 FT TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM WED...WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE THURS AS A SURFACE
RIDGE TRAVERSES THE EASTERN NC WATERS. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT SCA
HEADLINE WHERE SEAS 6 FT OR GREATER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THURS AFTERNOON FROM DIAMOND SHOALS NORTH. WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT
WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND
SEAS AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS 4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE
SURFACE WINDS OPPOSING THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 00Z WAVEWATCH...USED A BLEND THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE THEN THE LATEST WAVEWATCH AS WINDS/SEAS APPEARED
REASONABLE COMPARED TO OUR FORECAST WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INLAND OF THE OUTER BANKS TODAY WITH MINIMUM RH 25-30% AND NW
WINDS 10-20 MPH. SPS REISSUED PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND NCFS. ON THURSDAY INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST DUE TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25%
FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL MUCH LIGHTER AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEUSE RIVER AT
KINSTON FOR MINOR FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG
FIRE WEATHER...JME
HYDROLOGY...BTC




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