Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 191430
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
930 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will continue to move through the area
early this morning and move offshore by afternoon. High pressure
will build in tonight and Monday and then move offshore
Tuesday. Low pressure will move northeast near the coast early
Wednesday and again Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 930 AM Sunday...No significant changes with update, just
tweaked grids to reflect current trends with precip shifting
offshore and dewpoints falling rapidly inland behind the front.
Latest sfc analysis shows front now right along Hwy 17 this
morning. Latest radar imagery shows showers over the Pamlico
Sound and Outer Banks moving eastward, and should be offshore in
the next hour or so. Winds have diminished a bit this morning,
and will allow Wind Advisory for Carteret and Outer Banks to
expire at 10 am. Temp forecast a bit problematic as expect
current mild reading to continue just past sunrise, then will
drop 5-10 degrees after frontal passage. Temps then likely
steady rest of day as insolation and downsloping W-NW winds will
offset cold air advection. Steady temps in mid 50s to lower 60s
late morning through afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Sunday...Cold and dry air mass will continue to
spread in through the night. Lighter winds and better
radiational cooling conditions will allow temps to drop to lower
30s inland while breezy conditions will keep coast in low-mid
40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 am Sun...High pressure moves in from the west Monday
then off the coast Tuesday. A cold front will move through
Wednesday morning and become stationary off the coast of the
southeast states. Areas of low pressure will move northeast
along the front Thanksgiving Day into Friday.

Monday and Tuesday...High pressure will build in from the west
Monday and then move off the coast on Tuesday. Cold air aloft
will lead to much below normal highs on Monday, but then warmer
southerly flow on Tuesday will lead to milder highs. Highs
Monday will be in the lower to mid 50s, and on Tuesday highs
will reach the lower to mid 60s. Low temps will be in the lower
to mid 30s inland both Monday and Tuesday mornings, with mid to
upper 30s further east, and low to mid 40s along the coast.

Wednesday thru Friday...A cold front will move off the coast
Wednesday morning and stall over the offshore waters of the
southeast states. A few waves of low pressure will move
northeast along the front during this time. The best chance for
rain during this time will be mainly east of Highway 17 with
PoPs no higher than 40-50%

High temps will be in the lower to mid 60s Wednesday, and then
the lower to mid 50s Thursday and 55-60 Friday. Low temps Wed
will range from the upper 40s inland to the mid to upper 50s
along the south coast and Outer Banks. Lows Thursday will be
around 40 on the coastal plain to 45-50 south coast and OBX.
Lows Friday morning will be in the mid to upper 30s coastal
plain to mid/upper 40s south coast and OBX.

Saturday...The offshore front will move off to the east as a
deep upper trof sweeps in from the west. Highs will be around 60
after morning lows in the upper 30s inland, with upper 40s to
lower 50s Outer Banks.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term /Through 12Z Monday/...
As of 700 AM Sunday...Strong cold front moving through area with
mainly light showers and brief period of MVFR VSBYs and CIGs and
on track to move east of TAF sites by 14Z. VFR mostly SKC
conditions rest of period. Winds will shift to NW behind front
with gusts up to 25 KT through afternoon.

Long Term /Mon through Thu/...
As of 230 am Sun...VFR conditions forecast Monday and Tuesday.
Sub-VFR in light rain Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day, with the
best chance at EWN and OAJ. Only isolated activity at PGV and
ISO.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 930 AM Sunday...No sig changes with morning update. Latest
obs show W/SW winds 15-25 kt, stronger 20-30 kt with gusts to 40
kt on the outer central and southern waters...with seas 3-6 ft
north of Oregon Inlet and 6-12 ft south. The strong cold front
will move across waters by late morning with SW winds gusting up
to 35-45 KT ahead of front and NW winds gusting to 30 KT this
afternoon into evening. Gale Warnings continue for coastal
waters and Pamlico Sound and SCA rest of waters. Winds will
shift to NW behind the front with gusts to around 25 KT likely
for Pamlico Sound and outer waters into tonight. Seas 6-12 feet
this morning, subsiding this afternoon but likely linger around
6 feet outer portions into early Monday.

Long Term /Mon through Thu/...
As of 230 am Sun...Winds Monday morning will be NW 15-20 kts,
subsiding to 10-15 kts in the afternoon. Winds Tuesday will be
SSE 5-10 kts. Another front will cross the waters Wednesday
morning, with winds becoming north 15-20 knots and continuing
through Thanksgiving Day.

Seas will subside Monday as high pressure builds in from the
west, with seas on Tuesday only 1-2 feet. However, seas will
very quickly build to 5-8 feet north of Cape Lookout and 4-6
feet south following the passage of the cold front Wednesday
morning.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NCZ095-103-104.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ130-
     131-136-137.
     Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ135-150-152-
     154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM/CQD
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JBM/HSA
MARINE...JBM/CQD/HSA



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