Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 300140
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
940 PM EDT Mon May 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will drift into the region tonight then drift
back north on Tuesday. The front will stall near the area
through mid to late week then dissipate.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 940 PM Monday...A weak front has settled into the
northern portion of eastern NC as evidenced by easterly flow to
the north of it and southerly flow south. Several weak areas of
low pressure will move along it during the next 48 hours causing
the boundary to meander north and south across the region. This
boundary is likely to be the focus of the heaviest
precipitation through Wed night or Thu but it`s location will be
difficult to forecast as it will be strongly modulated by
convective outflows. As expected conditions are becoming more
favorable for convection with showers and storms advancing
toward the region from the south and west as a mid level
shortwave approaches the area. Expect current activity to
rapidly develop into our region between 11 PM and 1 AM /3-5Z/
becoming most numerous from 1 AM through 5 or 6 AM with the best
coverage of showers and storms still expected over the northern
portion of the area. SPC has lowed the severe threat to
"Marginal". 0-6km bulk shear will be increasing but instability
should tend to weaken after midnight with loss of heating and
increasing surface CINH. The loss of instability might be
counteracted by increasing moisture advection as PW values
increase to around 2" and as warm advection aids lift overnight
so will still have a chance for an isolated marginally severe
wind gust or hail. Could see some minor localized flooding in
low lying and poor drainage areas that receive frequent
downpours. Another warm night with low temperatures in the upper
60s to lower 70s inland and northern Outer Banks and the lower
to mid 70s along the southeast coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
As of 3 PM Monday...The combination of a stalled frontal
boundary near our CWA, strong mid-level shortwaves, and a deeper
plume of moisture in place versus recent days, will lead to a
decent chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday.
Expect more cloud cover with temperatures a few degrees cooler
than today. That cloud cover and increased precip will limit the
severe weather threat tomorrow and SPC has removed our area from
the Marginal threat for Tuesday. Will have PoPs in the 40-50 pct
range Tuesday...perhaps tapering a bit in the afternoon. High
temperatures will be in the mid 80s for most spots.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 pm Mon...An unsettled pattern will be the rule through
most of the long term period as shortwaves/disturbances move
through the region aloft, with a weak front lingering across or
near the area. These features will lead to continued low
confidence through the period due to timing and exact locations
of subtle short waves passing through the region. Models are
hinting at a better chance for showers/storms Sunday as a rather
deep upper trof pushes a surface cold front through the area.
Will cap PoPs at 50% for now on Sunday but later shifts may need
to increase to likely. Temps through Saturday continue quite
warm with 85-90 interior to around 80 on the beaches, with lows
in the upper 60s/lower 70s. Temps cool a bit Sunday into Monday
with highs lower to mid 80s with lows in the mid 60s to lower
70s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term /through Tuesday/...
As of 940 PM Mon...Looking at the potential for periods of sub
VFR conditions from around midnight to 5 or 6 am tonight as
showers and strong thunderstorms develop and move across the
area. The NAM BUFKIT soundings indicated a period of IFR
ceilings at the TAF sites after 5 AM through much of Tuesday
morning as easterly low level flow develops over the area in the
wake of the overnight convection. The models differed on the
extent of the easterly flow and thus the extent of these
potential low clouds so will hold off from including them in the
forecast and continue to monitor. VFR conditions are then
expected from late Tue morning through the afternoon outside
scattered showers and storms which are forecast to redevelop
with diurnal heating.

Long Term /Tuesday Night through Saturday/...
As of 3 pm Mon...Mainly VFR through the period, though
occasional periods of sub-VFR in mainly aftn/evening showers
and storms each day. Surface winds will be from the west to
southwest, less than 10 knots Wed and Thu, and 10-15 knots Fri
and Sat.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Tonight and Tuesday/...
As of 940 PM Monday...A weak front has drifted south into the
northern waters this evening and will likely stall along the
coast on Tuesday. Speeds are forecast to be 15 kt or less all
waters through Tuesday but the wind direction forecast is more
problematic due to the differing model solutions on frontal
location late tonight and Tuesday. South of Cape Hatteras and
over the southern half of the Pamlico Sound the flow should be
S/SW through the period. To the north wind direction will be
more variable with E/SE flow tonight becoming NW Tuesday. Seas
are forecast to remain 2-3 ft through Tuesday.

Long Term /Tuesday Night through Saturday/...
Waters north of Ocracoke...Mainly southwest winds Tue night
through Wed night, then shifting winds Thu as a front moves in
and becomes stationary along the coast. Winds will begin to veer
to south once again Thu night into Fri, then southwest on
Saturday. Speeds will be 5-15 knots and seas 2-4 feet through
Friday. On Saturday a stronger front will approach from the
north. Speeds will increase a bit to 10-20 knots with seas 2-5
feet.

Waters south of Ocracoke...Mainly southwest winds 5-15 kt
through Friday. Winds will increase to 15-20 knots Saturday as a
strong front drops south toward the area. Seas mainly 2-4 feet
through Friday, building to 3-5 feet Sat.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME/CTC
NEAR TERM...JME/CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JME/HSA/SGK
MARINE...JME/CTC/HSA



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