Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 291100
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
700 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN
SLIDE OFFSHORE SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 7 AM FRI...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1025MB HIGH PRESSURE
OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC...WITH 1014MB LOW PRESSURE OVER WV AND
ASSOCIATED AND COLD FRONT FRONT PUSHING OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST
THIS MORNING. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING
AND SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE CWA BY MID-MORNING...AS WEAK AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD TODAY AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL.

PRECIP HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AND EXPECT FAIRLY PLEASANT DAY
DESPITE THE CLOUDS EARLY. LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG CONTINUES TO
SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN NC FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS MORNING. FOG
SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS
GRADUALLY LIFTING LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
AND N/NE FLOW SUPPORT HIGHS 65-70 DEGREES ALONG THE OUTER BANKS
AND 70S TO AROUND 80 DEG INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...INCREASING MOISTURE OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH...BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH AND APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE MID-WEST. AREA WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT...THOUGH
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP. OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY 55-60 DEGREES WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT E/SE
FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY, UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DEEP MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON
S/SW FLOW SATURDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SURGE TO 1.5 TO
1.75 INCHES. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL AFFECT MAINLY AREAS WEST OF
HIGHWAY 17 ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES
NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. DEEP MOISTURE AND
AXIS OF STRONG H7-H5 LIFT ACROSS EASTERN NC ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT LEADS TO HIGH CHANCE POPS INLAND TO LOW CHANCE COAST WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY.
CONTINUED HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA MONDAY GIVEN LIFT
AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. DESPITE CLOUD COVERAGE,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST CONTINUES
FOR THIS PERIOD GIVEN SOME MODEL INCONSISTENCIES. GFS CONTINUES
DRY FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WHILE THE ECMWF IS
RATHER WET...WITH THE CANADIAN IN BETWEEN. CONTINUED PREVIOUS
FORECAST TREND WITH LOW CHANCE POPS TUESDAY. BETTER AGREEMENT OF A
DECENT COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE SOME DRYING
THURSDAY AS AXIS OF DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION. FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES...WHILE COOLER FOR THE MID/LATE WEEK PERIOD...WILL
STILL BE PRETTY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM FRI...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH
LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG. THE STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BETWEEN
13-15Z...GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
SUB-VFR FOG AND STRATUS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE AND MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION SKIRTING WEST OF THE REGION...SATURDAY SHOULD
GENERALLY VFR ACROSS THE REGION. PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
WITH LOWER CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL BEGIN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A MOIST SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW AND DEEP LIFT SET UP ACROSS
THE REGION WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
THE BEST CHANCE OF POOR CONDITIONS WILL BE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM FRI...LATEST OBS SHOW N WINDS 10-20KT NORTH OF
OCRACOKE AND W/NW WINDS 5-15KT SOUTH OF OCRACOKE WITH SEAS 2-4FT.
FRONT IS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND SHOULD BE
SOUTH OF THE WATERS BY MID-MORNING...WITH ALL WINDS BECOMING N/NE.
COULD SEE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO 20KT BEHIND THE FRONT INITIALLY BUT
THINK THAT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. N/NE WINDS 5-15KT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH STRONGEST WINDS NORTH OF OCRACOKE. WINDS INCREASE TO
10-15KT OVERNIGHT AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SEAS 2-4FT...WITH LOCALLY
UP TO 5FT ON THE OUTER WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
NORTH...EXPECT GENERALLY NORTHEAST WINDS AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SEAS AT 3-5 FEET OR LESS. AS
THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...WINDS VEER TO S/SW SUNDAY AT 10-15 KNOTS
AND CONTINUE THAT WAY INTO TUESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE
NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO 15-20
KNOTS AND A FEW 6 FOOT SEAS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER CENTRAL
WATERS...ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. WINDS
BECOME NW/N AND DROP OFF TO 5-15 KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD/CTC
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CQD/CTC
MARINE...CQD/CTC


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