Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 011440
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1040 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE NORTHWEST AND ONSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH WITH THE FORECAST UPDATE LATE THIS MORNING.
RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL AND KEPT IN THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWERED HIGHS TODAY GIVEN THE EXPECTED AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE AND CLOUDS. PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOVE 2 INCHES IN RICH
TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED ATOP INLAND MOVING SFC BNDRY WILL LEAD TO
A CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN THREAT TODAY (AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND). HEAVY RAIN OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUND WILL
LEAD TO FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

ROTATING CELLS HAVE BEEN NOTED ON RADAR THIS MORNING AND ONE OF
THE MORE INTENSE COUPLETS PRODUCED A WATERSPOUT OFF FORT MACON
AROUND 8 AM. WEAKLY ROTATING CELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INSTABILITY MAY BE AIDED BY DIURNAL HEATING IN ANY
SUNNY BREAKS THAT DEVELOP. OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS
TO BE LIMITED HOWEVER GIVEN WIDE COVERAGE OF STORMS AND LIMITED
INSTABILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM FRI...COULD SEE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM RAIN FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ALOFT SHIFTS OFF THE COAST...THOUGH
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS INLAND TO LIKELY POPS ALONG THE COAST
GIVEN THE MOISTURE-RICH SW FLOW WITH PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES FOR THE
REGION. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS MBE VECTORS FALL BELOW 10 KNOTS FOR THE
SHORT TERM. SW FLOW STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT WITH THE SURFACE FRONT
LOCATED WEST OF THE CWA...NEARLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. GUIDANCE
INDICATES CHANNELED WEAK VORTICITY ALOFT WILL SHIFT OVER THE
REGION AND MAY AID IN MAINTAINING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM FRI...THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE WEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A RICH SUPPLY OF DEEP GULF/CARIBBEAN MOISTURE
CONTINUING TO TRAIN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THE AREA
CONTINUES TO BE IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET WITH
PWATS REMAINING ABOVE 2 INCHES...AND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN QUITE WET AS AN INVERTED TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE AREA. ECMWF/WPC QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE IN
THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE...AND AS HIGH AS 5 INCHES. WITH MUCH OF
EASTERN NC HAVING RECEIVED COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL WEEKS...WITH PLACES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND CRYSTAL COAST
AREAS AT 150-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL RAINFALL...SO FLOODING CONCERNS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN BY THE ABUNDANT CLOUDS
AND RAIN...WHICH WILL ALSO ACT TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION SO NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S.

THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT NEXT WEEK WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND EXPECT MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION TO RETURN BY
MIDWEEK WITH TEMPS CLIMBING BACK TO SEASONABLE NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY ACROSS
EASTERN NC TAF SITES. THE OFFSHORE INVERTED TROUGH WILL SHIFT
TOWARDS THE COAST THIS MORNING THEN SHIFT NW THROUGH THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A SHORTWAVE IN DEVELOPING MOIST
UPPER SW FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS (AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS) ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT GIVEN MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM FRI...AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH ENC IN FAVORABLE
REGIME FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY. THE TROUGH BEGINS TO
WEAKEN GRADUALLY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 655 AM FRI...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE E/ESE
FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS 10-15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS OFFSHORE...AND
SEAS 3 FT OFF THE NORTH OUTER BANKS TO 5 FT OFF ONSLOW BAY. THE
INVERTED TROUGH WELL OFFSHORE WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
WATERS TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS MORE SE 10-15 KT TODAY. WINDS SHIFT
MORE SE/S TONIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS WELL INLAND FROM THE COAST.
SEAS REMAIN 2-4 FT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS TO 3-5 FT FOR THE
SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 520 AM FRI...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL RESIDE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM BRINGING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN SUB SCA THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL REMAIN THE 2
TO 4 FOOT RANGE MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MIGHT START TO SEE BUILDING SEAS
TUE...UP TO 5FT...WITH INCREASING SWELL FROM DISTANT TC BERTHA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-
     090>095-098-103-104.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...CQD/DAG
MARINE...CQD/DAG





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