Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 211941
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
341 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Offshore high pressure with an inland trough will be the
dominant weather features through the weekend producing hot and
humid conditions. A weak cold front will move into the region
early next week and become stationary.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Fri...Latest analysis shows upper ridging across the
area with high pressure anchored offshore and weak surface
trough inland. Latest radar imagery shows isolated showers/tstms
trying to develop across the NC coastal plain this afternoon.
Will keep isolated pop mention for the next few hours, but
expect coverage to remain pretty isolated and dissipate with
loss of heating. Most locations have seen heat index values
105-109 degrees this afternoon, and will continue advisory
through 7pm this evening. Lows overnight 75-80 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
As of 3 PM Fri...Heat and humidity will continue again Sat with
heat index values 105-109 degrees. Low level thickness values
and 850mb temps around 20C support highs in the mid 90s inland
and upper 80s/low 90s along the coast. Will issue another Heat
Advisory for most of the cwa. Isolated showers and storms will
be possible again during the afternoon and evening, but think
the best chance will late, with ridge suppressing convection.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 3 PM Fri...No significant changes to the forecast. One
more oppressively hot day Sunday then cooler and wetter for the
early part of the week. May dry a bit mid week as front tries
to push S of region briefly, with a return northward and more
unsettled weather later in the week.

Saturday night through Sunday night...Dry through most of this
period with the main thunderstorm activity well north across the
Mid Atlantic, with a possible MCS. Beyond an isolated sea breeze
storm Sunday afternoon, if we were to see anything organized the
best chance would be across the far north. Continued low chance
pops across the far north to account for this as these areas
could be on the outer edges of a dying MCS. We remain in a
marginal risk for severe weather across the far north. Limiting
factor remains the convection making it this far south.

Models cont to show low level thicknesses around 1435-1440
meters Sunday. This will support max temps easily reaching the
mid 90s one last day. With dewpoints forecast to be in the 70s,
critical Heat Index values AOA 105 degrees are expected once
again Sunday afternoon.

Forecast max temps will generally be below record highs at most
sites during period.  See Climate section below for details.

Monday through Tuesday...

Upper level heights will lower in the east Monday, as a massive
upper level high over Arkansas today retreats west toward the
four corners area of the southwest US. The result for us will be
cooler and unsettled weather. On Monday a cold front will
approach and while not as hot as this weekend, temps will again
climb into the 90s one more day with the southwest flow ahead of
the front. The front looks to move through our area Monday night
into early Tuesday, bringing the entire area a decent chance for
showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday through Friday...Front mentioned above should be south
of our area by early Wednesday that we may see a brief break in
the unsettled pattern. The front returns by Thursday and Friday
with a return to slightly better chances for thunderstorms each
day, especially during the peak heating of the day. Highs
through the period mainly in the 80s, to near 90 inland.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term /through Saturday/...
As of 3 PM Fri...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
period. Light SW winds should inhibit fog development overnight.

Long Term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 330 PM Fri...VFR expected through the weekend. Next
significant weather would be late Monday and Tuesday with
restrictions possible in showers and thunderstorms. VFR
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Saturday/...
As of 3 PM Fri...High pressure will continue offshore with
troughing inland through the period. Latest obs show S/SW winds
10-20 kt and seas 2-3 ft. SW surge to 15-20 kt this evening,
with seas building to 2-4 ft, up to 5 ft for the outer central
waters. Gradient tightens Sat, mainly in the afternoon and
evening with SW winds 10-15 kt increasing to 15-25 kt. NWPS and
Wavewatch show seas building to 3-6 feet late. Will initiate SCA
headlines for the Pamlico Sound and central waters, Oregon
Inlet to Cape Lookout for gusty winds and elevated seas.

Long Term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 330 PM Fri...

SCA headlines for the central waters, Oregon Inlet to Cape
Lookout for gusty winds and elevated seas will continue through
Sunday night. Gusty SW flow expected through the weekend as the
gradient between an approaching cold front and high pressure
well out to sea increases. Through Sunday night southwest winds
of 20 to 30 kts and seas 3 to 6 feet are expected over the
central waters. Used wave watch as guidance with NWPS running a
bit high on the waves, given our current wind forecast.

By Monday the gradient slackens as bit as the cold front
mentioned above approaches the waters. Southwest winds will
still run 15 to 20 with gusts to near small craft (25 kts), and
seas 3 to 5 feet. Based on the wind speeds waves were capped at
5 feet or less with model guidance still running 1 to 3 feet too
high.

With the passage of the cold front early Tuesday, winds will
continue to decrease to 10 kts or less. Southwest winds will
linger over the southern waters, but veer into the north and
eventually northeast northern waters by Tuesday evening. Winds
pick up a bit Wednesday behind the front and remain out of the
northeast at 10 to 15, with seas 3 to 4 feet.



&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Max Temps for 07/21 (Fri)

Location        Temp/Year
New Bern        103/1952  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    94/1977  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      102/1977  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    98/1987  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         106/1926  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    100/1987  (KNCA AWOS)

Record Max Temps for 07/22 (Sat)

Location        Temp/Year
New Bern        106/1952  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    92/1987  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      102/2011  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   100/1987  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         105/1932  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     99/2011  (KNCA AWOS)

Record Max Temps for 07/23 (Sun)

Location        Temp/Year
New Bern        100/1952  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    92/1972  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      103/1932  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    98/1987  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         103/2011  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     97/1995  (KNCA AWOS)

Record Max Temps for 07/24 (Mon)

Location        Temp/Year
New Bern         99/1952  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    90/2016  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville       99/2011  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    96/1999  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         101/1952  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     97/1995  (KNCA AWOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ095-
     103-104.
     Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ029-044>047-
     079>081-090>095-098-103.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Saturday for NCZ029-
     044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 1 AM EDT Sunday for
     AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Monday for
     AMZ152-154-156.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD/HSA
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF/EH
AVIATION...EH/CQD
MARINE...EH/CQD
CLIMATE...MHX



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