Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
000
FXUS62 KMLB 281942
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
342 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight...TD2 forecast to be nearing landfall some where along the
South Carolina coast Sunday morning per the latest NHC messages.
The system is forecast to have only marine and beach effects if any.
Long periods swell increases the rip current risk...especially
during the afternoon when tidal influences will be maximized.

Sea breeze component to the wind at the coast should diminish
rapidly with the setting sun. Weak pressure gradient between the
"troughing" extending southwest from TD2 and weak high pressure
ridging from the Southeast U.S. into the north and northeast Gulf of
Mexico will result in light to calm winds after midnight. Noon time
dew points in the mid and upper 60s with some outliers around 70 are
an indication of overnight lows which would be around 70 give or
take a degree or two which is around their climo upper 60s to around
70. Any lingering showers and/or storms will weaken and dissipate by
midnight.

Sun-Sun night...Some of the moisture wrap around from the tropical
system as it moves slowly northeast/paralleling the South
Carolina coast makes its way down into East Central Florida and
increases the overall moisture field a little. The best
moisture...hence higher POP... will be located from South
Brevard...Osceola counties south to Lake Okeechobee and Martin
County where the large/synoptic scale wind is southwest rather
from the west further north where the wrap around circulations
from TD2 are stronger. Highs in the upper 80s where there would
more cloudiness to low 90s north where there should less cloud
cover. Lows Monday and Tuesday mornings in the upper 60s in the
usual cooler location from Vero Beach to Fort Pierce west to the
Kissimmee River western Osceola and Okeechobee counties to around
70 for the remainder of East Central Florida. Highs Monday
expected to be upper 80s Brevard to Martin and to Okeechobee
counties and lower 90s to the north.

Memorial Day-Mon Night...Troughing from whatever is left of TD2
stretching along the U.S. East Coast is sandwiched between high
pressure in the west Atlantic and Southeast U.S. The resulting light
wind field will allow for sea breezes forming late morning and early
afternoon.  The pressure gradient remains weak with light offshore
morning winds becoming onshore along the east coast in the late
morning and afternoon. A similar day to Sun with mainly afternoon
SCHC-CHC convection favoring inland areas. Highs in the L90s inland
and U80s at the coast. Overnight lows continue in the U60s to L70s.

Previous Extended

Tue-Fri...A persistent pattern continues with weak id-upper level
troughing still across the FL peninsula during this time. At the
surface the pressure pattern continues weak and we will see a daily
sea breeze regime with boundary collisions across the interior. Will
continue CHC afternoon/early evening storm chances with convection
favoring the interior. The storm motion will be fairly weak with
main storm threats of locally heavy downpours, lightning, and gusty
winds. Consistent highs/lows with maxes U80s/90 degrees interior and
M-U80s at the coast, mins in the U60s/L70s areawide.


&&

.AVIATION...

Tonight-Sun... VFR conds will be primary over the forecast area over
the next 24H. There will be isold shra along the coast with
development of sct shra and afternoon TS inland bringing brief mvfr
conds mainly S of KISM to KMLB.


&&

.MARINE...

Tonight...Once the sea breeze circulations shut down the wind will
become light...5 to 10 knots...offshore due to the wrap around flow
associated with TD2 nearing the SC coast/beaches. A northeast to
east long period 2 to 4 foot swell from TD2 and the long fetch
easterly flow over the southern waters and south enter the coastal
waters during the night. Seas look to be long period "rollers"
rather than the more choppy wind wave seas.


Sun-Sun night...Weak pressure gradient over the area with offshore
morning winds transitioning to onshore at the coast with sea breeze
formation and push inland. Mainly isolated shra/tsra chances. Wind
speeds generally AOB 10 kts. Seas 2-3 ft near shore and 3-4 ft
offshore.

Memorial Day-Wed...Favorable wind speeds generally 6-12 kts.
Isolated shra/tsra chances. Seas generally 2 ft near shore and 3 ft
over the open Atlc.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  70  89  70  90 /  20  20  20  20
MCO  70  91  71  92 /  20  30  20  30
MLB  71  86  72  88 /  20  40  30  20
VRB  69  87  69  88 /  30  40  30  20
LEE  71  92  70  92 /  20  20  20  30
SFB  71  91  71  92 /  20  20  20  20
ORL  72  91  71  92 /  20  30  20  30
FPR  68  87  69  88 /  30  50  30  20

&&

.MLB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

IMPACT WX/DSS/AVIATION...Kelly
FORECASTS...Wimmer



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.