Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 160803
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
403 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY/TONIGHT...RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS TO RETREAT WESTWARD AS MID
LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG FARTHER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. TODAY. DEVELOPING W/NW FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL PULL IN
DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF A STALLED FRONT NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS
WILL LEAD TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ALONG THE DEVELOPING EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE THAT WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO AREAS FROM THE
CAPE SOUTHWARD. GREATEST RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED FROM LAKE COUNTY
EASTWARD TOWARD VOLUSIA AND NRN BREVARD COUNTY WHERE MOISTURE WILL
BE HIGHEST.

ONE LIMITING FACTOR IN GREATER PRECIP CHANCES TODAY...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHERN AREAS...WILL BE EXPANDING UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK FROM
CONVECTION CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE TO THE NORTHWEST. IF THIS CLOUD
COVER PERSISTS IT COULD LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY INTO
THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 DEGREES WITH LOW 90S FORECAST OVER INTERIOR AREAS SOUTH OF
ORLANDO WHERE MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED INITIALLY TODAY.

CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE DECREASE INTO THE EVENING AS IT PUSHES
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

WED-THU...
A 70-90KT H30-H20 JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEYS
INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL PRODUCE STRONG UPR LVL DIVERGENCE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH. THIS WILL INDUCE A BROAD SFC LOW ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY CRANK IT THRU CENTRAL FL ON WED...THEN INTO S
FL ON THU. FRONTAL MOTION WILL BE SLOW BUT STEADY AS THE ATLC RIDGE
OVER FL AND THE FL STRAITS IS QUITE WEAK AND WILL NOT BE ABLE STALL
THE ADVANCE.

DEEP MOISTURE POOLING WITHIN THE TROF WITH PWAT VALUES RUNNING BTWN
2.1"-2.2". THIS MOISTURE...COUPLED WITH A RESPECTABLE H85-H50 VORT
BAND IN THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT AND H50-H70 LAPSE RATES BTWN
5.5-6.0C/KM WILL PRODUCE A WET WED WITH POPS ABV 50PCT AREAWIDE.
POPS WILL DROP BACK TO 20-30PCT ON THU AS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA
GAINS THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT AND STEERING WINDS VEER TO THE N/NW
AND PULL DRIER AND MORE STABLE MID LVL AIR ACRS THE CWA WITH PWATS
DROPPING BLO 1.5".

ON WED...MODELS INDICATE A NEARLY SATURATED AIRMASS ABV H50 THAT
SHOULD PRODUCE MID/UPR LVL CLOUD DECKS THAT WILL HINDER SFC HEATING.
HOWEVER...RUC40 REGIONAL ANALYSIS SHOWS H50 TEMPS NEAR THE FRONTAL
TROF RUNNING ARND -8C THAT SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO
KEEP SCT TSRAS IN THE FCST. OVERALL INSTABILITY LOOKS MODEST AT
BEST...STRONG/SVR TSTM THREAT WILL BE QUITE LOW.

CLOUD COVER AND RAIN COOLED AIR WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS NEAR AVG
(M/U80S) ON WED DESPITE THE USUALLY WARMER WRLY FLOW THAT WILL
PREVAIL. LOW PRECIP/CLOUD COVERAGE ON THU WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO
WARM BACK INTO THE U80S/L90S. MIN TEMPS NEAR AVG (L70S) AS WELL AS
LIGHT NRLY WINDS PUSH SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO CENTRAL FL.

FRI-MON...
FRNTL BNDRY WILL REMAIN OVER S FL THRU FRI AS THE POST FRONTAL HI
PRES RIDGE WORKS ITS WAY ACRS THE ERN CONUS AND OFF THE MID ATLC/NEW
ENGLAND COAST. N/NE SFC/STEERING WINDS WILL KEEP THE RELATIVELY DRY
AND STABLE MID LVL AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH RELATIVELY LOWER PRECIP
CHANCES THRU THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT
WILL DRIFT BACK NWD ON SAT AS THE H100-H70 FLOW VEERS MORE TO THE
E/NE...BUT BY THEN IT WILL BE HAVE LITTLE MORE THAN A MID LVL
THETA-E REFLECTION THAN TRUE FRONTAL PROPERTIES. POPS ON SAT MAY
CREEP UP TO THE 50PCT MARK ACRS THE TREASURE COAST...BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL REMAIN AOB 40PCT FOR MOST OF THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS BROAD HI PRES REESTABLISHES ITS HOLD OVER THE GOMEX/WRN ATLC.

NO SIG COOL AIR ADVECTION AS THE FRONT HAS BEEN MEANDERING OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. FURTHERMORE...WITH SFC/LOW LVL
WINDS SHIFTING ONSHORE...OCEAN MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR QUICKLY.
MAX/MIN TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVIATE FROM CLIMO AVGS BY MORE THAN
3F DEG.


&&

.AVIATION...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
TODAY WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM
LAKE COUNTY EASTWARD TOWARD VOLUSIA AND NRN BREVARD COUNTY. SCT/NMRS
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND PUSH E/SE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE ALONG
DEVELOPING EAST COAST SEA BREEZE SOUTH OF THE CAPE INTO EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON. TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS WILL OCCUR WITH ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE INTO THE EVENING BUT COULD
STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...

TODAY/TONIGHT...WEAK FRONT NORTH OF THE REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME ONSHORE AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY NEAR THE COAST FROM CAPE
SOUTHWARD WHERE SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON.
PREDOMINANT W/SW WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 1-2 FEET
TODAY WITH BUILDING SWELLS INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 3-4 FEET
TONIGHT.

MAIN CONCERN FOR BOATERS WILL BE FOR SCATTERED STORMS PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS AS THEY MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF SEBASTIAN INLET.

WED-WED NIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL TROF OVER THE DEEP SOUTH PUSH THRU
CENTRAL FL AND SUPPRESS THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS INTO THE FL STRAITS.
INTERACTION BTWN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL TIGHTEN THE LCL PGRAD
SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE A GENTLE TO MODERATE WRLY BREEZE ACRS THE
LCL ATLC...NO SEABREEZE IS ANTICIPATED. SEAS BUILDING TO 3-4FT
NEARSHORE AND 5-6FT OFFSHORE...LARGELY DUE TO A VERY LONG PD SWELL
(AOA 15SEC) FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST.

THU-FRI...FRONTAL TROF WILL PUSH INTO S FL ON THU...ALLOWING A LIGHT
TO GENTLE W/NW BREEZE TO VEER TO THE N/NE THRU THE DAY ON THU...THEN
GRADUALLY TO THE E/NE THRU FRI. SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY DAMPEN OUT ON
THU WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-33FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE BY
SUNSET THU...CONTG THRU FRI.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER THE S HALF OF THE
PENINSULA AS IT DRIFTS BACK TO THE N...LIGHT TO GENTLE E/SE
SFC/BNDRY LYR BREEZE WILL PREVAIL. A NEW SWELL TRAIN WILL WORK ITS
WAY INTO THE LCL ATLC AS A LARGE HIGH PRES RIDGE PUSHES OFF THE MID
ATLC/NEW ENGLAND COAST AND GENERATES A TIGHT PGRAD ALONG THE ERN
SEABOARD. SEAS 2-3FT AREAWIDE AT DAYBREAK...BUILDING TO 3-4FT
NEARSHORE AND 4-5FT OFFSHORE AFT SUNSET.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  74  86  73 /  60  40  60  30
MCO  90  74  88  73 /  60  30  60  40
MLB  89  76  86  73 /  50  40  60  40
VRB  89  74  87  72 /  50  40  60  50
LEE  89  74  89  73 /  60  40  60  30
SFB  90  74  89  74 /  60  40  60  30
ORL  90  75  88  74 /  60  30  60  40
FPR  89  73  87  72 /  40  40  60  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WEITLICH
LONG TERM....BRAGAW
AVIATION...WEITLICH





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