Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 230018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
818 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017


...Chance for Heavy Rain along the Coast Tonight...
...Hazardous Boating and Surf Conditions This Weekend...

Tonight into Saturday morning...While east central Florida received
local rainfall amounts 1-3 inches this afternoon/early evening,
satellite and radar suggest we dodged a bullet with respect to more
widespread heavy rain. Doppler radar rainfall estimates show an
extensive area of 1-3 inch amounts just to our east over the
Atlantic waters. There`s been a weak inverted trough there focusing
convergence, and this will need to be watched overnight.

The general pattern with a mid-upper level trough in the eastern
Gulf of Mexico and moist, breezy onshore flow suggest a chance for
heavy rain along the coast.  It`s difficult to discern where a
boundary will set up to focus convection.  The mesoscale models have
been showing various solutions and the 18z GFS forecast 1-3 inches
of rainfall just offshore in the next 24 hours.  To have the GFS
model crank out that much precip is noteworthy.  It also shows a
southward progression down the coast of the higher amounts, which is
common with coastal rain events.  While we won`t hang our hat
entirely on that solution just yet, plan to bump up coastal PoPs and
precip amounts, while carrying a mention of the potential for heavy
rain in the HWO.  The chance for heavy rain along the coast should
extend into Sat. morning.


Main concern for the TAF period is onshore moving showers overnight
tonight into Saturday morning.  Some could make it to the interior
terminals but not expecting that to continue past late evening. MVFR
ceilings of 1500-2500 ft are also possible through Saturday morning.
Will have to watch coastal terminals for the potential of more
widespread coverage of MVFR or possible IFR late tonight into Sat
morning as the models suggest. Shower chances continue Saturday
morning with scattered to numerous thunderstorms and breezy
conditions beginning early in the afternoon.


Tonight-Saturday...Buoy 41009 has had east/northeast winds around 20
knots since about 18z.  Surface analysis shows a bit of tightening
of the pressure gradient along the north half of the Florida east
coast.  The geostrophic approximation suggests the gradient
supporting closer to 15 knots though.  Considerable marine
convection might have played some part in locally producing this
period of stronger winds.  In any event, conditions will be
deteriorating as Hurricane Maria gains latitude near longitude 72W.
East/northeast winds up to 15-20 knots and building swells generated
by Maria will lead to hazardous conditions for small craft.
Scattered-numerous showers and isolated lighting storms will also
affect the Atlantic waters.


AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for Flagler Beach to
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County
     Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.


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