Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 031506
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1005 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DENSE FOG LINGERING ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF VOLUSIA AND
BREVARD COUNTIES AS WELL AS INLAND THROUGH ORANGE...NORTHERN
OSCEOLA AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES. STRATUS WILL BREAK UP INTO
LATE MORNING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THEREFORE HAVE ALLOWED DENSE
FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. HOWEVER MAY SEE FOG CONTINUE TO LINGER
ALONG THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND BEACHES FROM MELBOURNE NORTHWARD
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE.

ONSHORE FLOW IS LEADING TO A FEW CONVERGENCE INDUCED CLOUD BANDS
OVER THE WATERS WHICH ARE PRODUCING ISO LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE
WATERS. WHILE A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE TO REACH THE
COAST THIS MORNING...SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE IN THE AFT
WILL WEAKEN ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY AS IT NEARS THE COAST. WILL
THEREFORE KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST OVER LAND.

HIGHS STILL FORECAST TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 70S
OVER COASTAL SECTIONS NORTH OF THE CAPE TO LOW 80S SRN AREAS AND
OVER THE INTERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...ANY LINGERING IFR CONDS IN STRATUS WILL RAPIDLY
IMPROVE TO VFR BY NOON AS DAYTIME HEATING MIXES OUT THIS LOWER
CLOUD COVER AND PATCHY FOG. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTH TONIGHT WHICH STILL MAY LEAD TO LOW CIGS IN STRATUS BUT
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG CONDS LOOK LESS LIKELY.


&&

.MARINE...AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
SHOULD ERODE THEREAFTER. (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) TODAY...E WINDS
NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL VEER TO THE ESE THIS AFTERNOON AND SE TONIGHT.
A LINGERING EAST SWELL IS FORECAST FROM 3-4 FT NEAR SHORE TO 4-5
FT OFFSHORE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE ACROSS THE
WRN ATLC WITH INCREASING LOW LVL SE/S FLOW OVERNIGHT. DRYING IN THE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR.
SHOULD SEE SOME FOG AND STRATUS REDEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN
THE 60S.

WED-THU...WARM AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA MAINTAINS WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE LOW AND MID 80S HIGHS FORECAST EACH DAY ARE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THE CLIMATE NORMALS OF MID 70S. NO PRECIP
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MAY BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST
LAKE AND NORTHWEST VOLUSIA COUNTIES.

THU NIGHT...FRONT DRAWS CLOSER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER VOLUSIA AND NORTH LAKE COUNTIES. LOWS FRI
MORNING FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTHERN VOLUSIA AND
NORTHERN LAKE COUNTIES TO THE MID 60S SOUTH BREVARD AND OSCEOLA
COUNTIES SOUTH.

FRI...MODELS INDICATING THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SLOW ADVANCING FRONT REMAINS OVER NORTH FLORIDA. PAINTED HIGHEST
POP OVER NORTHERN AREAS WHERE BEST MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER LEVEL
VORTICITY AND JET DIVERGENCE ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. HIGHS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES TO THE
UPPER 70S AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

SAT-MON...BOTH THE GFS AND CANADIAN LONG TERM INDICATING BETTER
MOISTURE AND INVERTED TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THAN THE
ECMWF LONG TERM. MOISTURE RIBBON SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ENOUGH
TO KEEP SLIGHT TO CHANCE...20 TO 30 POP...THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS IN THE IFR/LIFR CATEGORY WILL AFFECT
CSTL TERMINALS AT TIMES FROM KDAB-KFPR AND SHOULD ALSO SEE INTERIOR
TERMINALS WITH STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND FOG DEVELOPING THROUGH
SUNRISE. FOG/STRATUS SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY
MORNING AND SHOULD LIFT INTO MID MORNING. VFR CONDS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...E WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL VEER TO THE ESE THIS AFTERNOON
AND SE TONIGHT. A LINGERING EAST SWELL IS FORECAST FROM 3-4 FT NEAR
SHORE TO 4-5 FT OFFSHORE.

WED-THU...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS OVERTOP OF THE AREA. WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND
SEAS TO 5 FEET WELL OFFSHORE THU. THU NIGHT-SUN...EASTERLY WINDS TO
15 KNOTS THROUGH SAT THEN THE FORECAST BECOMES UNCLEAR WITH THE GFS
AND CANADIAN DEVELOPING AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC WHILE
THE ECMWF DOES NOT. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.


&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY MARCH 4TH:
         RECORD HIGH
DAB 4-MAR  88 1953
MCO 4-MAR  88 1989
MLB 4-MAR  87 1982
VRB 4-MAR  89 2001

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLAGLER
     BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-
     BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WEITLICH
LONG TERM/IMPACT WEATHER....GLITTO


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