Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 210209
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
909 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...

...HAZARDOUS BEACH/BOATING CONDITIONS LATE FRI THROUGH WEEKEND...

TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR NORTH WAS
PRODUCING AN ONSHORE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...WHICH HAD RECENTLY
DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY AS THE RIDGE TEMPORARILY WEAKENED.  THIS ALLOWED
FOR A LAND BREEZE TO FORM WITH LIGHT TO WEAKLY WEST SURFACE FLOW
ALONG THE COAST.  A COASTAL TROUGH WAS INDICATED AND RADAR WAS
SHOWING THE BOUNDARY MOVING BACK TOWARDS THE BREVARD COAST.  THE
TROUGH WAS JUST ONSHORE IN MARTIN COUNTY AS THE WINDS THERE HAD
VEERED TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS WAS CAUSING A WIDE RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES AT 9 PM WITH READINGS FROM 50 DEGREES AT LEESBURG AND
DELAND TO THE UPPER 60S AT STUART.

MANY PLACES FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD ARE ALREADY CLOSE TO THEIR
OVERNIGHT LOW.  THE NORTH COAST WILL NOT LIKELY SEE ANY ONSHORE WIND
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT THOUGH WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE SHOULD SWING AROUND
TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS ALONG WITH SOME CIRRUS STREAMING ACROSS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR JUST A LITTLE FURTHER COOLING TOWARDS UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S.  THE SAME CAN BE SAID FOR THE INTERIOR WITH JUST A
LITTLE ADDITIONAL COOLING THE REST OF THE NIGHT. OVERALL THE CURRENT
MIN TEMPS LOOK GOOD...THOUGH IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO GET THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES CORRECT EVERYWHERE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

CURRENTLY WE HAVE A SMALL POP FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST.  THE DEPTH OF
ONSHORE FLOW IS SHALLOW BUT THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING THE MOISTURE DEPTH.  THE LOCAL WRF
GENERATES AN AREA OF PRECIP BUT KEEPS IT SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
TREASURE COAST.  THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS LIGHT PRECIP SOUTHEAST OF
MARTIN COUNTY.  THOUGH SKEPTICAL OF THE 30 PERCENT MOS POPS FOR
STUART...AIR MASS MODIFICATION WILL CERTAINLY BE OCCURRING ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST SO WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT 20 PERCENT RAIN CHANCE THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MVFR SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH OF KVRB
FRI MORNING.  NORTHEAST/EAST FLOW WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE LATE
MORNING ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST AND MAYBE EVEN AT SOME OF THE
INTERIOR TAFS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-FRIDAY...A LITTLE BIT OF AN EASING GRADIENT HAD OCCURRED IN
THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TEMPORARILY WEAKENED.  THE RIDGE
WILL STRENGTHEN BACK UP FRI MORNING...SO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK
UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND PROBABLY WILL TOUCH 20 KNOTS IN THE
AFTERNOON.  WILL CONTINUE THE EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT IN THE GULF
STREAM...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED OVER ALL OF THE WATERS FRI.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS PROBABLE FOR AT LEAST THE GULF STREAM
BY LATE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WX...VOLKMER





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