Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 042004
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
404 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY/TONIGHT...COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND ITS
ASSOCIATED STEEPENING OF THE LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTED TO AN EARLIER
START TO CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...INITIALLY ALONG THE
BREVARD COAST AND SINCE THEN TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. AS NOTED
PREVIOUSLY...THIS MORNINGS CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW
KEPT CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM FROM CAPE CANAVERAL TO SANFORD AND
POINTS NORTH. GIVEN THE EARLIER START...AM EXPECTING THINGS TO
QUIET DOWN A BIT SOONER THIS EVENING. PLAN ON REMOVING POPS FROM
THE FORECAST SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH GENERALLY DRY AND HUMID
CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...SURFACE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA KEEPING
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL
ALOFT WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND MOISTURE REMAINS
ABUNDANT...THOUGH GFS DOES INDICATE SOME LESSENING OF PWATS DURING
THE AFTERNOON..ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE A BIT WEAKER AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES CLOSER TO THE
AREA..SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SLOWER MOVING STORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE DRIER AIR INTRUDING IN FROM THE NORTH...HAVE
PAINTED THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA
WITH A FOCUS ON THE INTERIOR...GENERALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 95.
FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 40 AND 45
MPH WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM TOMORROWS STRONGEST
STORMS.

SUNDAY-THURSDAY (FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHEAST U.S/NEW ENGLAND RIDGES ALONG THE EAST COAST AND INTO
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM
NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE
SOUTHEAST GULF MOVES LITTLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY. WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS TO THE SOUTH A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND SHOULD BE THE
RULE EACH MORNING. EARLY SEA BREEZES SHOULD ADD A COUPLE OF
MPH/KNOTS TO THE LARGER SCALE WIND PATTERN. THE ONSHORE WIND FLOW
IN THE MORNING WILL ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM EARLY
AND PUSH INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY...THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS FROM THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS AND SOUTH FLORIDA NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM FLORIDA. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE MID ATLANTIC HIGH TO BUILD WEST OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS
FLORIDA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND FLOW. LIKELY RAIN CHANCES IN THE INTERIOR ON
TUESDAY DROP SOME TO 50 TO 40 PERCENT BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 AT THE COAST AND LOW 90S
INTERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGHEST COVERAGE OF TSRA/SHRA REMAINS ACROSS INTERIOR
TERMINALS AND THE STUART AIRPORT THROUGH 21Z. EXPECT CONVECTION
TO SHIFT WESTWARD WITH TIME AND BE WEST OF THE EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA TERMINALS BY 22Z. OVERNIGHT...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THANKS TO THIS AFTERNOONS CONVECTION OVER THE
MAINLAND...WILL TRANSITION TO OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
EXPECT NORTHERLY FLOW AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS AT
OR BELOW 2 FEET.

SAT-MON....LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT AND IN THE MORNING. SEA
BREEZES ADD A FEW KNOTS IN THE THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 1 TO 2 FEET
NEARSHORE AND 3 FEET OR LESS WELL OFFSHORE.

TUE...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
SOUTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. SEA BREEZES ADD A KNOT OR TWO TO THE
ONSHORE WIND AT THE COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  88  75  88 /  20  40  20  40
MCO  75  90  75  89 /  20  60  20  50
MLB  75  88  75  88 /  20  50  20  50
VRB  75  88  75  88 /  20  50  20  50
LEE  75  91  74  89 /  20  50  20  50
SFB  75  90  74  89 /  20  50  20  40
ORL  75  91  75  89 /  20  60  20  50
FPR  74  89  74  88 /  30  50  20  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECASTS...ULRICH
RADAR/IMPACT WEATHER....WEITLICH
AVIATION....SEDLOCK



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