Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 171915
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
215 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...

TONIGHT....BOUNDARY HAS WASHED OUT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WITH
WEAK FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
TREASURE COAST EXPECTED TO THIN AND CLEAR OUT BY THIS EVENING.
WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST.

THURSDAY...WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP WINDS LIGHT. EXPECT SOME SEMBLANCE OF A SEA BREEZE TO PUSH
INLAND...ALLOWING A WEAK ONSHORE BREEZE TO DEVELOP ALONG OUR
COASTAL COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR
70 ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED WITH JUST A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD.

THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...RATHER FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS FORECAST
WITH ZONAL FLOW DOMINATING THIS PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LIE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRI BEFORE IT IS SHUNTED
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST FRI OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS EAST TEXAS ON THU/THU NIGHT. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD FRI-FRI NIGHT REACHING THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY SUNRISE SAT MORNING. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL
EXTEND SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW. INITIAL LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL VEER EAST ON FRI AND
EVENTUALLY SE/S FRI EVENING/OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FRI...STARTING TO
WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL FRI NIGHT.

SAT-TUE...PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION...SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WX
PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTG INTO NEXT WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE
TROF OVER THE WEST COAST WORKS ITS WAY ACRS THE SRN TIER STATES. AN
H30-H20 JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA TO THE MID ATLC
COAST WILL PROVIDE THE UPR LVL SUPPORT TO ALLOW THE SHORTWAVE TO
DVLP A CLOSED SFC LOW AS IT PUSHES ACRS THE ARKLATEX. HOWEVER...MAX
WINDS ASSOCD WITH THE JET ARE ONLY 80-100KTS WHILE ITS ORIENTATION
IS EITHER ZONAL OR LIFTING. NEITHER OF THESE FACTORS ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR RAPID OR STRONG STORM DVLPMNT. FURTHERMORE...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE W ATLC... IT WILL DEFLECT THE
SFC LOW OFF TO THE NE BUILD SIMULTANEOUSLY BLOCKING OUT ITS ASSOCD
COLD FRONT.

THE RESULT WILL BE A FRONT THAT SHOULD STALL OVER CENTRAL FL AS THE
WEAK STORM SYSTEM LIFTS UP THE ERN SEABOARD. DEEP MOISTURE POOLING
WITHIN THE TROF WILL RETURN TO THE STATE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH
THE RIDGE ANCHORED NE OF THE BAHAMA BANK...A DEEP SW FLOW WILL
PREVAIL THRU THE COLUMN THAT WILL GENERATE GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT.
WHILE THIS USUALLY GENERATES A MORE STRATIFORM TYPE OF RAIN
EVENT...H50 TEMPS BTWN -10C/-12C WILL HELP GENERATE SOME FAIRLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THAT COULD TRIGGER ISOLD
TSRAS.

WILL KEEP SOME MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE FCST THRU THE PD BUT BLO
50PCT. A PROLONGED PD OF S/SWRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS ABV AVG...THOUGH CLOUDS AND RAIN COOLED AIR WILL HELP
OFFSET THIS EFFECT. AFTN MAXES GENERALLY IN THE L/M70S N OF
I-4...M/U70S TO THE S. MIN TEMPS M/U50S INTERIOR/VOLUSIA COAST AND
U50S TO M60S ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHALLOW GROUND
FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS A FEW OF THE TERMINALS BEFORE
SUNRISE...HOWEVER...NO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT/THURSDAY...WEAK RIDGING WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO
GENTLE NORTHWEST BREEZE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS 2 - 3 FEET
OVERNIGHT BECOMING AT OR BELOW 2 FEET THURSDAY.

THU NIGHT...LIGHT NW FLOW WITH WIND SPEEDS MAINLY 5-10 KTS. SEAS AOB
3 FT.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WEAKENS WITH THE APPROACH OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FRI OVERNIGHT. NNW/N MORNING WINDS WILL VEER TO
NE/E THRU THE AFTERNOON...THEN SE/S OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL
MAINTAIN AOB 10 KTS DURING THE DAY AND 7-12 KTS FRI NIGHT. SEAS
CONTINUE AOB 3 FT.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FL PANHANDLE EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WILL WEAKEN AND RACE ENE. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COOL FRONT WILL
MAKE PROGRESS INTO NORTH FL BY LATE IN THE DAY AND PERHAPS AS FAR AS
N/C FL BY DAYBREAK SUN MORNING. S WINDS NEAR 12 KTS OVER THE OPEN
ATLC WILL VEER SSW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MORE SW OVERNIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS STILL AVERAGING 7-12 KTS AWAY FROM THE COAST SAT NIGHT. SEAS
AOB 2 FT NEAR SHORE AND TO 2-3 FT SAT AFTN/NIGHT.

SUN-SUN NIGHT...FORECAST STILL HINGES ON EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH
DURING THIS PERIOD THE FRONT IS ABLE TO PENETRATE. FIRST GUESS IS
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. EXPECT SW/WSW WINDS SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY AND PERHAPS A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT BEHIND IT. SEAS
STILL AOB 3 FT. WIND SPEEDS STILL 6-12 KTS AT BEST. GREATEST SHOWER
CHANCES NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT FORECAST AT
THE PRESENT TIME FOR SUN AND UP TO 40 PERCENT NORTH OF THE CAPE
SUN NIGHT. NO TSRA CHANCES ENTER THE PICTURE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PERHAPS SOME LOW RH`S THU-FRI AFTN IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S (INTERIOR)...BUT A BUMP UP IN MOISTURE IS FORECAST FOR
AFTERNOON RHS THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DISPERSION INDICES LOOK TO STAY FAIR AT BEST.
ONLY VISIBILITY CONCERNS WILL REVOLVE AROUND EXISTING FIRES OR
SMOLDERING BURNS FOR SOME EARLY MORNING (SHALLOW) PATCHY FOG.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER ABOVE LAKE HARNEY (GENF1) HAS
FALLEN TO ACTION STAGE AT 6.50 FT AS OF 2 PM (6.50FT). PROTRACTED
DRY WEATHER WILL ALLOW THE RIVER TO DROP BELOW ACTION STAGE BY
TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  48  67  47  69 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  47  70  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  49  69  50  72 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  47  71  48  72 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  44  68  47  69 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  47  69  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  47  69  51  71 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  50  70  47  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/SHORT TERM...ULRICH
IMPACT WX/LONG TERM....SEDLOCK





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