Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 221907
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
307 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-TONIGHT...SEA BREEZE FORMED AND WAS PUSHING WESTWARD OVER
THE COASTAL AREAS FORT PIERCE NORTH. SOUTH OF FORT PIERCE THE SEA
BREEZE HAD MADE IT INLAND MUCH FURTHER...WEST OF THE INTERSTATE
TURNPIKE CORRIDOR...WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS BEING DETECTED WEST
OF THE SAINT LUCIE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES
AND A SLOW STORM MOTION OF 5 TO 10 MPH WILL LEAD TO HEAVY SLOW
MOVING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. ANY SEA BREEZE COLLISION OVER THE INTERIOR LOOKS TO BE
TOWARD SUNSET AND WEST OF THE ORLANDO AREA. IN THE MEAN TIME...SLOW
MOVING STORMS DROPPING A LOT OF RAIN OVER LARGE AREAS WILL MAKE FOR
A WET EVENING COMMUTE HOME LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
DIFFERENT STORY SOUTH OF FORT PIERCE WHERE THE SEA BREEZE HAS PUSHED
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE TURNPIKE CORRIDOR AND IN MOSTLY RURAL AREAS
EXCEPT FOR INDIANTOWN AND JUST WEST OF THE MAIN TRAFFIC CORRIDOR
WHERE HEAVY RAINS WILL IMPACT THE EVENING COMMUTE AND PERHAPS LARGE
AMOUNTS OF TEMPORARY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND LOW SPOTS.

STORMS AND SHOWERS DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT AND SKIES BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY TOWARD SUNRISE. WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AS THE LOWER LAYERS
DECOUPLE AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW AND MID 70S LOOKING AT ANOTHER
MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW AND MID 70S AWAY FROM THE OCEAN AND
BEACHES.

WED-THU...
MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND TROUGHING CENTERED OVER THE
MOBILE/WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AREAS RETROGRADES SLOWLY TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN LOUISIANA COAST...THEN WEAKENS AND BECOME STRETCHED
OUT NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND PICKS/ABSORBS UP THE WEAKENING LOW. THE MID LEVEL
RIDGES OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND FLORIDA/BAHAMA ISLANDS MERGE
LATE THU INTO FRI. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SUPPRESSED TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST LIFTS INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AND BUILDS ACROSS THE
PENINSULA AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. STILL LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL
FLORIDA.

HIGHS LOW WITH SOME MID 90S INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 AT THE
COAST. LOWS LOW AND MID 70S WITH SOME UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES COCOA
BEACH SOUTH.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION
FRI-MON...MID-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN CONUS
DURING THIS TIME AS A LARGE RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...THE DAILY SEA BREEZE REGIME AND
VARIOUS OTHER AFTERNOON BOUNDARY COLLISIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A 40 TO
50 PERCENT CHANCE POP THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE WESTERLY STEERING
FLOW...WHILE REMAINING LIGHT...WILL STILL PUSH STORMS TOWARDS THE
EAST COAST LATER IN THE DAY AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST PRESENTING ISSUES FOR MARINERS. AFTERNOON
HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN LINE WITH NEAR SEASONAL CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
TEMPO MVFR/IFR IN/VC SHOWERS/STORMS INTERIOR TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z
LIGHT SHOWERS FROM DEBRIS CLOUDS THROUGH 04Z THEN VFR REST OF THE
NIGHT AND THROUGH 16Z WED. ISOLATED SHOWERS MORNING POSSIBLE ALONG
THE COAST KCOF SOUTH MIGRATING ONSHORE AROUND 16Z TRANSITIONING TO
STORMS/SHOWERS COASTAL TAF SITES. TEMPO MVFR/IFR INTERIOR TAF SITES
20Z-24Z.


&&

.MARINE...
CURRENT...STORMS BY BUOY 010 AT 120NM OFFSHORE KICKED SEAS UP TO 5
FEET AND WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. BUOY 009 WAS RECORDING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND 2 FOOT SEAS. THE TWO SCRIPPS BUOYS
WERE STILL RECORDING 2 FOOT SEAS.

TONIGHT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST OF SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND 2 FOOT SEAS. SCATTERED STORMS
MAINLY AROUND THE GULF STREAM BECOME ISOLATED AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

WED-SAT...THE FAIRLY WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES EACH
DAY WITH FORECAST SEA BREEZE FORMATION AND MARCH INLAND EACH
AFTERNOON. WINDS AOB 10 KTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT PERIOD...EXCEPT NEAR
10-12 KTS NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON FOLLOWING SEA BREEZE
FORMATION. WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM SSE TO SSW. SEAS AOB 3 FT.
THE MAIN MARINE CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE STORMS NEAR THE
COAST/NEAR SHORE WATERS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING AS OVERALL MOISTURE
REMAINS HIGH AND SOUTHWEST STEERING WINDS WILL TEND TO PUSH ANY
STORMS OVER THE COASTAL AREAS BACK INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS.




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  92  75  93 /  30  30  20  30
MCO  75  94  76  95 /  20  40  20  30
MLB  76  91  76  91 /  30  50  20  30
VRB  74  91  75  91 /  30  50  20  30
LEE  76  95  77  95 /  20  30  20  30
SFB  77  96  77  96 /  20  40  20  30
ORL  77  94  78  95 /  20  40  20  30
FPR  75  89  74  91 /  40  50  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

IMPACT WX...BRAGAW
PUBLIC SERVICE...CARTWRIGHT
FORECASTS...WIMMER



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