Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
FXUS62 KMLB 251821
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
222 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016
Current-tonight...The 15Z KXMR sounding remains moist a with a PWAT
of 1.81 inches. Temperatures at 500mb remain very warm and lapse
rates are not impressive. 700/500mb temps respectively at +7.0C/-
4.1C. Cape wind profilers continue to show a generally light south
to southeast directional component across the atmospheric column
with speeds 5 to 10 kts, except near 15 kts above 6.5 Kft. Nexrad
88D showing struggling convective signatures along the inland moving
Coverage for remainder of afternoon/early evening to be ISOLD-low
end SCT. It appears the warmer air at 500 mb is squashing what could
have been. Coverage and intensity may still increase some into the
interior as boundaries collide/merge.
Storm threats continue to be frequent cloud to ground lightning in a
few storms, locally heavy downpours, and gusty outflow winds.
Current storm motion of SSE toward the NNW is still forecast to
gradually veer becoming SSW toward the NNE later in the afternoon
and early evening at 5 to 10 mph.
Continued mild with lows generally in the L-M70s areawide. Cloud
debris from earlier storms will thin through the night.
...Previous Extended Forecast Discussion...
Tue-Sun...The mid and upper level low will shift west to the western
Gulf of Mexico Tue which will allow the Bermuda Ridge to reassert
itself and dominate our weather thru the remainder of the week.
Position of the low level ridge axis will adjust across the central
FL peninsula, resulting in a light but steady S/SE flow, enhanced by
the sea breeze each afternoon. This will favor interior counties for
rain chances each day but coverage should be no more than 40
percent, closer to 30 percent most days, due to subsidence and dry
air aloft. Much below normal rain chances are expected along the
coast as sea breeze convection pushes steadily inland away from the
coast. Above normal temps in the mid 90s expected over the interior,
more seasonable upper 80s/lower 90s coast. Lows in the low to mid
.AVIATION...Continued VFR outside of ISOLD-WDLY SCT aftn/early
evening convection. Higher coverage of showers/storms inland from
the coast along the westward moving ECSB. A few convective cells
could hold on into mid evening. Light ESE/SE winds will become
light/variable to calm again this evening/overnight. ESE/SE winds
again for Tue with WDLY SCT aftn storms favoring the interior, more
ISOLD along the coast.
.MARINE...Current-Tonight...ESE/SE winds will become more southerly
this evening, then perhaps more SSW late in the night near the east
coast. Generally favorable small craft boating conditions with
minimal seas...1-2 ft near shore and up to 3 ft well offshore,
mainly north of Sebastian Inlet. Dominant wave periods around 8-9
seconds. Isolated showers/storms...mainly south of Sebastian inlet
where deepest moisture resides.
...Previous Extended Marine Forecast Discussion...
Tue-Fri...Favorable boating conds this week as the Bermuda Ridge
axis settles across the central FL peninsula. Light to gentle S/SE
breeze will prevail from Cape Canaveral southward...S/SW flow north
of the Cape, becoming E/SE near the coast each aftn with the
formation of the east coast sea breeze. Seas 2-3FT. Storm chances
look below normal with only isolated coverage expected as most
convection will occur and stay on land.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 75 91 75 93 / 10 30 20 20
MCO 74 94 75 94 / 30 40 20 30
MLB 77 91 78 91 / 10 20 10 20
VRB 75 91 74 91 / 10 20 10 20
LEE 76 94 77 94 / 30 40 20 30
SFB 75 93 76 94 / 20 40 20 30
ORL 75 93 76 94 / 30 40 20 30
FPR 75 91 75 91 / 10 20 10 20