Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 231921
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
321 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT-SAT NIGHT...SHORTWAVE ALOFT FINALLY LIFTS AWAY FROM
CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT AND IS REPLACED BY RIDGING AND A DRIER
NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS RIDGES SOUTHEAST OVER
FLORIDA AND REMAINS OVER FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PERSISTENT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TRANSPORT A STABLE MARINE AIR
MASS INTO THE COASTAL AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ANY PRECIP
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WOULD BE LIMITED TO MARTIN COUNTY AND THE
ADJOINING COASTAL WATERS THEN RAIN CHANCES DROP TO 10 PERCENT OR
LESS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS LOW 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S FROM AROUND DAYTONA...INTERSTATE 4 AND
WEST. LOWER 60S FROM AROUND ORLANDO SOUTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE
95. MID 60S EAST OF INTERSTATE 95.

PREVIOUS EXTENDED ZONES DISCUSSION.

SUN-WED...DEEP LAYER RIDGING MOVES FROM THE GOMEX TO ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE DEVELOPS SUN WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW DEEPENING INTO NEXT WEEK. LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM THE
MARINE INFLUENCE MAY ENTER THE PICTURE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE-WED.
GREATEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION WOULD BE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER BY AROUND
MID-WEEK WITH THE 12Z ECMWF FORECASTING A LOW OVER THE GULF WITH
DEEP MOISTURE BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SOME HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE ADDED CHANCE
POPS TO THIS DAY BUT WILL WAIT FOR FURTHER MODEL CONSISTENCY TO SEE
IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT. TEMPERATURES WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
CLIMO FOR THIS PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. TEMPO MVFR VCSH POSSIBLE KSUA SOUTH THROUGH MIDNIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
CURRENT-TONIGHT...BUOYS CURRENTLY RECORDING NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS AND 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS OUT TO 120 NM. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND LOWER
PRESSURES OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS...THE FLORIDA STRAIT AND
CUBA SHOULD SUPPORT NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS
NEARSHORE FLAGLER BEACH TO SEBASTIAN. SLIGHTLY STRONGER PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS FLAGLER
BEACH TO JUPITER INLET. SEAS AVERAGING 3 TO 4 FEET NEARSHORE...4
TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE WITH OCCASIONAL 6 FOOT SEAS IN THE GULL STREAM.

FRI-SAT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS
RIDGES OVER THE SOUTHEAST ND INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF AND FLORIDA.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND 3 TO 4 FOOT SEAS NEAR
SHORE AND 4 TO 5...OCCASIONAL 6 FOOT WAVES IN THE GULF STREAM...
OFFSHORE.

SUN-MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL WITH DEEPENING ONSHORE
FLOW BOTH DAYS. WIND SPEEDS AOB 15 KTS. SEAS 2-3 FT POSSIBLY
BUILDING MON OVERNIGHT TO 3-5 FT AWAY FROM THE COAST.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRI-SUN...MIN RH`S WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 PCT OVER THE NRN
INTERIOR FOR 1-3 HOURS EACH AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  59  80  58  79 /   0   0  10   0
MCO  60  82  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  66  80  63  80 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  68  82  64  82 /  10   0   0   0
LEE  58  81  58  80 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  60  81  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  62  81  61  81 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  68  82  63  81 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

IMPACT WX...GLITTO
FORECASTS...WIMMER






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