Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 181451
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
950 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2017

.UPDATE...

Current...Surface ridge axis now extends WSW from the Atlantic high
center offshore the Carolinas into north-central Florida. Skies are
currently clear save for some marine stratocumulus over the Space
and Treasure Coasts. Pre-dawn mist was quite spotty and shallow. 12Z
RAOB from KXMR shows a stout subsidence cap of about 4C just above
H850, beneath which the aforementioned marine clouds are pancaking
out. Moisture remains shallow/limited (~0.8" PWAT) and quite dry
aloft. 9AM temps were mainly in the U60s.

Remainder of today...another dry day is on tap with light SE flow
becoming southerly, and sunny/mostly sunny skies in the afternoon
after some morning coastal cloudiness. Max temps will be around 80
along the coast and lower 80s inland.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. CIGs SCT-BKN045-050 already starting to dissipate,
so expect SKC to FEW-SCT050. There does appear to be a little higher
chance for MVFR VSBYs in MIFG/BR 09Z-13Z tonight. Will re-evaluate
for the 18Z TAF package.

&&

.MARINE...Current buoy obs are around 3.5FT, once again indicating
that local and national wave model guidance continues to slightly
underestimate the rate of wave decay over the local Atlantic. With
the surface ridge moving, overhead, don`t see a premise for having
5FT seas offshore, so Will be capping off at 4FT through early
Sunday.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Cristaldi
MID TERM...Combs
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...Ulrich



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