Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KMLB 310147 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
945 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CONVECTION HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED THIS EVE BUT A STRONGER SW FLOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS COMBINED WITH DIFLUENCE ALOFT IS
MAINTAINING SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS SOUTH OF ORLANDO. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF OSCEOLA AND OKEECHOBEE LATE THIS
EVE BEFORE DISSIPATING. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT AND FRI MORNING WITHIN MOIST AIRMASS. LOW CLOUDS ARE PROB
MORE LIKELY THAN FOG GIVEN THE WARM TEMPS AND ENOUGH AIR MOVEMENT TO
KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED.

FRI/FRI NIGHT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE CURRENT WEATHER PICTURE
AS THE TROUGHING OVER FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST MOVES
LITTLE. THE CURRENT SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEST TO EAST MOTION OF
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THE EMPHASIS ON SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS AND THE EAST SIDE OF CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE LAYER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AT 2 INCHES OR
HIGHER. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH/LIKELY AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES EACH
DAY. UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN -6 TO -7C AND
ALONG WITH THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE ATMOSPHERE
WOULD SUGGEST LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WILL BE A THREAT MAINLY TO
BOATERS ON INLAND LAKES...INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE ATLC WATERS.
HIGHS AROUND 90/LOW 90S...LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION... THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR IFR/MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AND
FRI MORNING IN MOIST AIRMASS. HIGH COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED
AGAIN FRI MAINLY AFT 17Z SPREADING EAST.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT COASTAL WATERS FCST.

FRI/FRI NIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH.
MAINLY SSW/SW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. SEAS GENERALLY AOB 3 FT.
WINDS/SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER INVOF OF STRONGER CONVECTION. OFFSHORE
MOVING STORM CELLS REMAIN A THREAT AND COVERAGE WILL BE HIGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  89  73  86 /  40  70  50  70
MCO  75  89  74  87 /  20  60  40  70
MLB  74  90  75  86 /  50  70  50  70
VRB  72  90  74  87 /  50  70  50  70
LEE  77  89  76  87 /  20  60  40  60
SFB  76  90  74  87 /  30  60  50  70
ORL  76  90  74  87 /  20  60  50  70
FPR  72  90  74  88 /  50  60  50  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

KELLY/WEITLICH


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.