Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 231444

East Central Florida Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
944 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2017

Currently-Today...Surface low pressure currently analyzed from south
central FL to just N of Grand Bahama Island is forecast to move
slowly north and east away from the area into tonight. It is
expected that the stronger onshore gradient winds currently along
the NE FL coast will wrap southward to at least the Volusia Co
marine and coastal areas and perhaps briefly south to Mosquito
Lagoon by mid afternoon.

Needless to say, a pronounced N-S gradient in coastal winds and
other weather parameters will exist as one goes from N-S along the
central FL coast. The lake wind & high surf advisory for coastal
Volusia appears good at this time. In considering the expected
onshore conditions a highest POP (60 percent) will be confined to
the Volusia coast with significantly lesser coverage along the coast
and inland sections south of there.


.AVIATION...Becoming prevailing MVFR across coastal Central FL N of
KVRB this morning with brief IFR in showers and low stratus. Expect
VFR conds and brief MVFR conds elsewhere. Areas south of KISM-KMCO-
KTIX should have more breaks in clouds. There will be low stratus
developing again late tonight with conditions MVFR-IFR expected in
the pre-dawn hours Friday.


Today-Tonight...(Modified prev disc) Elongated low pressure is
expected to transition slowly away from the coast with a tight
pressure gradient over the northern waters of Volusia Co. The models
show boundary layer winds near 35 knots in the far north, so have
gone with a Gale warning there through evening. The middle zones
should have lighter winds this morning but breezy northeast winds
may build down to around Mosquito Lagoon this afternoon while
northeast swells increase, so will maintain the current small craft
advisory there through tonight. The southern waters will have a
westerly wind component with speeds around 10 knots today, then
become more northerly tonight at 10-15 knots. Northeast swells will
also build late, but will not extend the small craft advisory south
of Sebastian Inlet.


FL...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Coastal
     Volusia County.

     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Coastal
     Volusia County.

AM...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for Flagler Beach
     to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for Volusia-Brevard
     County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard
     County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.



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