Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 240810

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
410 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 410 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

Upper air pattern consists of a closed 500 mb low over Southern
Saskatchewan and a shortwave over the upper Mississippi River
valley. This shortwave moves into the area today and the 500 mb low
opens up and becomes a trough over the northern plains 12z Thu. NAM,
GFS and ECMWF show some deeper moisture and some 850-500 mb q-vector
convergence moving through today. Overall, did not make too many
changes to the going forecast for temperatures or weather. Did keep
highest pops across the southern cwa and lowest in the far north.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 422 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016

A shortwave and SFC cold front will lead to some remnant showers and
thunderstorms exiting early Wed night. Otherwise, may see some
showers late Thu night into Fri morning over the west as a weaker
shortwave may pass through, but confidence in overall coverage is

Next chances for showers and thunderstorms will be Sat into Sun as a
more substantial shortwave looks to move through the region.
However, as is normal with shortwaves at this time frame, models
vary on timing/track. Consensus guidance was used given the level of
uncertainty and needed broadbrushing. Unsettled weather early next
week, but confidence in precip is low, so continued to use consensus.

No significant impacts expected from conditions in the extended.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 108 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

Later tonight, the SSW flow wl tap increasing llvl moisture ahead of
an approaching disturbance and frontal system. The combination of
the increased moisture advection as well as moistening fm -shra that
develop ahead of the disturbance wl result in deteriorating
conditions into at least the MVFR range on Wed mrng, especially at
IWD and SAW where there is a better chc for the -shra. Not out of
the question there could be some IFR cigs at both SAW and IWD by
late morning. Behind the passing disturbance and assoc sfc
trough/front, expect improvement to VFR by late Wed afternoon/Wed
evening as drier air works in from the west.

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 410 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

S to SW winds up to 20 kts will persist today ahead of an
approaching cold front. Winds will shift to the W following the
frontal passage tonight and then increase up to 30 kts on Thu as the
gradient tightens a bit. As trailing high pressure approaches and
the gradient slackens, winds will veer to the NW and diminish to
under 15 kts on Fri. Expect SE winds up to 20 kts to prevail over
the weekend between the departing high pressure and a low pres
approaching from the SW.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


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