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000
FXUS64 KMRX 050809
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
259 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SNOW MELT COMBINED WITH ONGOING
PRECIP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW VA CONTINUES TO CAUSE HIGH RIVER LEVELS
AND LOCAL FLOODING.  VARIOUS FLOOD WATCHES/WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT.  COOLER AIR MOVING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL DURING
THE DAY...AND AS READING DROP BELOW FREEZING...SNOW MELT SHOULD SLOW
SIGNIFICANTLY.  MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE CONTINUES TO BE
THE SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION.  AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
MOVE THROUGH.  MUCH COLDER AIR ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT WILL CHANGE
RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN TOWARDS SUNRISE.  ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND
A TENTH OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE TN VALLEY...WHILE
UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND UP TO WISE COUNTY VA.  THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...AS THE COLD AIR OVERTAKES THE WARM AIR ALOFT...FREEZING RAIN
WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET AND/OR SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3
INCHES ARE EXPECTED FROM THE NORTHERN PLATEAU UP TO SOUTHWEST
VA...AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW SHOULD FALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN TN VALLEY AND LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY.
WINTER WEATHER WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THESE
AREAS.  SNOW SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
A FEW POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW LINGERING OVER THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S
ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
EARLY ON...BUT SOLUTIONS DIVERGE BY THE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
TIME FRAME AND MODEL CONSISTENCY IS POOR AS WELL.  FORECAST
CONFIDENCE STARTS OUT HIGHER THAN AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...BUT SLIPS BELOW AVERAGE LATE IN THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...ALONG WITH A
WARMING TREND.  A WEAK WAVE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP...MOST
LIKELY MAINLY RAIN IF IT OCCURS...SUNDAY NIGHT...SO WILL CARRY
SLIGHT CHANCE POP. MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON TIMING OF NEXT
SYSTEM...WITH ECMWF AROUND TUESDAY AND GFS MAINLY WEDNESDAY.  FOR
NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHEST POPS WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT
CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY AS WELL.  THIS PRECIP LOOKS TO BE
ALL RAIN AGAIN GIVEN EXPECTED THERMAL PROFILES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             36  21  46  26 / 100  10   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  32  17  39  23 / 100  10   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       31  17  42  23 / 100  10   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              32  14  38  20 / 100  10   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANDERSON-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-
     MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR BLEDSOE-MARION-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE.

VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

MJB/LW