Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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996
FXUS64 KMRX 261853
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
253 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday)...A shortwave in the NW
flow aloft will drag along a weak surface cold front with it as
it moves through the region Tuesday morning. Isolated to scattered
showers are possible mainly between 06z and 18Z, with fairly
rapid clearing expected during Tuesday afternoon. Clear and dry
weather is expected Tuesday night and Wednesday. The comfortable
temperatures we have enjoyed today will repeat again on Tuesday
before seasonably summertime temperatures return for Wednesday.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...Models in decent
agreement overall, although still differences in the details.
Forecast confidence is about average for this time of year. With
surface high pressure shifting to our east moisture will increase
early in the period. Still some uncertainty about how quickly
moisture/instability will increase, but for now looks like
isolated to scattered afternoon convection can be expected all but
northeast areas Thursday afternoon. Friday looks like there
should be a bit more coverage of mainly afternoon convection, then
a weak cold front is forecast to sag toward the area during the
weekend. It is unclear how far south this front will make it
before stalling, but it may not make it into our area. However,
the combination of the approaching front and some possible short
wave energy should bring more showers and thunderstorms for the
weekend. Still some scattered convection expected on Monday as not
significant drying forecast. Temperatures are expected to be
fairly close to normal for much of the period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             62  81  60  87 /  20  20   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  59  77  56  84 /  10  30  10   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       59  78  57  86 /  20  30   0  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              56  74  53  81 /  10  30   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

GC/LW
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