Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 221835
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
235 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN
EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER SOUTHWEST VA AND NORTHEAST TN THIS
AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT...BUT THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THESE CLOUDS OVER SOUTHWEST
VA AND NORTHEAST TN MAY LINGER UNTIL SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. AS
A RESULT...THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH FROST FORMATION OVER THESE AREAS
TOWARDS SUNRISE...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU...SOUTHEAST TN AND SOUTHWEST NC SHOULD HAVE CLEARING SKIES
AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL
LET THE FROST ADVISORY CONTINUE FOR SOUTHWEST VA AND NORTHEAST TN
SINCE THERE STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF ENOUGH CLEARING TOWARDS
SUNRISE FOR SOME PATCHY FROST DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
WITH A WARMING TREND DEVELOPING ON FRIDAY AS TEMPS RISE BACK TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. AS FOR TEMPS...GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WILL COMPROMISE
WHERE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BE IN PLACE TO START OUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE WEEKEND
WILL BE A DRY PERIOD ALBEIT WITH A FEW CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE DRY WEATHER MAY
LAST ALL THE WAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN STATES SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS FLATTEN OUT THE RIDGE
BY MID WEEK WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WITH SOME MOISTURE AND FRONTAL LIFT INDICATED IN THE PROGS. IN
TERMS OF THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST...STAYED BETWEEN THE COOLER ECM
AND MILDER MEX MOS NUMBERS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             41  67  43  70 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  39  65  41  68 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       39  65  41  68 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              34  62  35  66 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
     MORGAN-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SCOTT TN-SEVIER
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-WASHINGTON TN.

VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

DMG/



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