Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 251846
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
246 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.Short term (tonight and tomorrow)...
A few showers have developed in the Plateau...but convection is
having a hard time developing elsewhere in the CWA. For the
evening...will carry just a slight chance pop in the northern
Plateau before midnight. The storms farther west in KY and West TN
are likly to dissipate before reaching our area.

Tomorrow...we may have a little better chance of showers and storms
as dewpoints will be a little higher and midlevel lapse rates are
slightly steeper. NAM forecast soundings show an inversion at TYS
and CHA that should act as a cap...but it is weaker at TRI. The GFS
puts out more QPF and has higher pops than the NAM and SREF...but
seems overdone given the lack of forcing and limited moisture.
Stability parameters favor the mountains and northern sections for
convective development. Thus will lean toward the NAM/SREF and keep
southern and central sections dry tomorrow...with low to slight
chance pops north and in the terrain areas. Temperatures will
continue their upward trend...with highs in the mid to upper 80s in
the Valley.

.Long term (Thursday night through Wednesday)...
A ridge of high pressure centered off the east coast will be the
dominant weather feature into the weekend. Beneath this
ridge...increasing low level moisture and diurnal heating will
allowing isolated to scattered convection to develop each period
with best chances during the late afternoon and evening. We will
also be watching an area of low pressure just off shore. Model
consistency has been poor with the track of this feature and
depending on if and where it moves onshore...it could effect our
weather...increasing cloud cover and the chance of convection. The
most likely time frame for this feature to move in will be around
Sunday or Monday. Through the rest of the extended...will remain in
an unsettle weather pattern as a series of short waves track across
the region for a chance of shower and thunderstorm activity each
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             65  88  67  88 /  10  10  10  20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  63  86  65  85 /  10  10  10  20
Oak Ridge, TN                       64  85  65  85 /  10  10  10  20
Tri Cities Airport, TN              60  85  62  84 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

DGS/MJB


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