Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 250930

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
330 AM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...No big changes to the forecast update for this
week. Mid to high level moisture is expected to move over the
region today into Tuesday from British Columbia. This will
translate to possible afternoon and evening mountain showers,
clouds and continued cooler than normal temperatures. Model
guidance appears a little overdone for precipitation chances with
this pattern, so the chance for precipitation especially in the
valleys is low.

Wednesday through Friday look to be spectacular days as the warm
upper level ridge becomes more entrenched over us. This will
equate to plenty of sunshine, temperatures warming into the 60s
and 70s most places with the exception for a few central Idaho
valley locations possibly cracking 80. One trend in the weather
models has been to speed up the Pacific system later Friday into
Saturday. This could mean that high clouds could move over central
Idaho Friday a little faster diffusing the sunshine a little bit.

The aforementioned frontal system and associated trough
occurrence has been in question for the past few days. It appears
that ensemble guidance would say it is more legit. Due to this
increased confidence, we have increased the the chance for
precipitation Saturday.

Beyond that, an upper level ridge may build back briefly bringing
mild weather near the start of October but may not last very long
as models hint at yet another incoming Pacific front.


.AVIATION... Minimal impacts to aviation are expected from some
mid-level moisture in the area today. Ceilings will remain well
above VFR thresholds, however, there may be some mountain
obscurations. Especially along the Continental Divide.



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