Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 282006

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
206 PM MDT Sun May 28 2017

...Well above normal temperatures to continue through mid next

.DISCUSSION...The Northern Rockies can expect another hot and dry
day, other than a few scattered showers and thunderstorms in the
higher terrain through this evening. Highs for most valleys in
western Montana and north-central Idaho, will remain 10 degrees or
more above normal for this time of year. Other than the
occasional shower or thunderstorm drifting off of the mountains,
most valleys will stay dry until the ridge of high pressure begins
to break down mid week next week.

As the ridge begins to break down and moves east of the area
Wednesday, a southwesterly flow with an embedded shortwave will
develop over the Northern Rockies. While details are yet to be
ironed out, confidence has increased that many locations of
north-central Idaho and western Montana will see widespread rain
showers, along with scattered thunderstorms. Atmospheric
conditions could be conducive for some of these thunderstorms to
become quite strong.

After Thursday, the overall weather pattern will remain unsettled
and not as warm as what we`ll see at the beginning of the week,
but not seeing a well organized with disturbance influencing the
region. Likely just scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms
with temperatures around normal to slightly above.

Due to all the above normal temperatures we have seen and expect
to see in the coming days, rivers and streams will continue to run
high and swift. Use caution when around bodies of water, the air
temperature maybe very warm, but the water is still cold.


.AVIATION...A building ridge is keeping most of the convection
today limited to fair weather cumulus clouds, and mostly over the
mountains. However, radar indicates a few showers organizing,
mainly east of the Mission and Sapphire mountains this afternoon,
and some very isolated  lightning has been observed. Expect
convection to cease quickly after sunset.



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