Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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FXUS66 KMTR 251805
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
1105 AM PDT THU AUG 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Very little change is forecast to occur through the
weekend and into next week. Temperatures will be near or slightly
below normal, with the coolest day expected to be Friday. Areas of
night and morning low clouds will give way to sunny skies by
midday for inland areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...As of 9:30 AM PDT Thursday...Quiet weather can be
expected across our entire region over the next several days as an
onshore flow at the surface combined with a marine layer close to
2,000 feet and a very weak flow aloft will all combine to keep
a very repetitious pattern going. Temperatures will average near
to a bit cooler than normal with typical summer-time seabreezes
expected.

Current forecast appears to be on track, so no major changes
anticipated.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...The marine layer hasn`t changed much over
the past 24 hours and still hovers at around 1600 feet deep, per
the Fort Ord profiler. Satellite shows a similar pattern compared
to yesterday at this time with coastal low clouds filling most
inland valleys. Currently temperatures are running a few degrees
cooler than 24 hours ago, with readings mainly in the 50s.

High pressure aloft over the Eastern Pacific will weaken as an
upper trough edges southwestward from the Northern Rockies. As a
result, today will be warm like yesterday, but slightly cooler
temperatures are expected beginning on Friday. Also on Friday and
Saturday, low-level winds are forecast to switch from the south,
and this will bring smoke from the wildfires in Monterey County
northward which will result in deteriorating air quality as far
north as Santa Clara County perhaps even through the weekend. Winds
are expected to return to a northwesterly direction early next
week as an upper level trough approaches California, which will
reverse this trend and bring improving conditions to the Bay Area.
A long-wave upper level trough is then forecast to remain along
the West Coast through the remainder of next week keeping slightly
cooler conditions in place.

&&

.AVIATION...As of 11:05 AM PDT Thursday... Currently IFR to VFR
cigs across TAF sites due to the marine layer stratus. Stratus
deck will retreat/mix out by 18-21Z depending on location with the
holds being around Monterey Bay and portions of the northern SF
Bay. Winds generally light today with slightly increased afternoon
sea breeze. Marine layer returns tonight with LIFR to MVFR cigs
between 130-4Z depending on location

Vicinity of KSFO...VFR after 1830Z. Afternoon sea breeze. IFR
returns overnight.

SFO Bridge Approach...VFR.

Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR through 19-20Z then VFR. Low cigs
return later this afternoon and become LIFR overnight through
sunrise.

&&

.MARINE...as of 11:01 AM PDT Thursday...Fair weather will bring
predominately light winds and seas over the next few days. Light
northwest to west winds today will shift to become southerly on
friday and through saturday. Locally stronger and gusty winds
north of the bay bridge in the pm hours. A mixed swell will
continue as a long period southerly swell impacts the coastal
waters.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tday...SCA...SF Bay from 1 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: Bell/Sims
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP


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