Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 200017
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
517 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...PLEASANT WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE FORECAST AREA BY MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:34 PM PDT FRIDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AROUND THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS BEGINNING TO POP UP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF SAN JOSE. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH
LOWER 80S IN THE EAST BAY AREA.

THE SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE IS SHOWING YESTERDAYS STORM
SYSTEM CENTERED OFF OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WHICH IS
RESULTING IN LIGHT NORTH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER OUR AREA. THESE
WINDS ARE ADVECTING DRIER AIR INTO THE CENTRAL COAST...LOWERING
THE HUMIDITY SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PLEASANT WEATHER AROUND
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE 1200Z ECMWF AND GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. BOTH MODELS ALLOW YESTERDAYS STORM SYSTEM...LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...TO LINGER OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH
TOMORROW PROMOTING PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE CENTRAL COAST. THE LOW
PUSHES OFF INTO NEVADA SUNDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.

BOTH MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS APPROACHING TROUGH
AND A DEEPENING LOW OFF OF THE BC COAST. THIS DEEPENING LOW WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN BY MID WEEK AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONALLY...NORTHWEST WINDS RANGING
BETWEEN 45 AND 50 KT OFF OF THE BC COAST ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
STORM MAY GENERATE THE FIRST LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL OF THE WINTER
SEASON WITH WAVES IN THE 10 TO 15 FOOT RANGE REACHING THE COAST
MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:15 PM PDT FRIDAY...EXTENSIVE STRATUS ALONG
THE COAST. ONSHORE GRADIENTS MORE E-W THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
SUPPORTS AN EARLY RETURN OF STRATUS INTO SFO. LATEST FORECAST
BRINGS MVFR CIGS TO SFO BY 03Z.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR BY 03Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...STRATUS IS ALREADY POURING INTO THE
SRN MRY BAY AREA. MVFR CIGS LOWERING TO IFR AFTER 04Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:37 PM PDT FRIDAY...MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A FAIRLY LONG PERIOD
SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WATERS INTO THE
EVENING BUT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A LONGER PERIOD WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELL IS FORECAST TO IMPACT OUR
AREA STARTING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: BELL

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