Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 251147
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
347 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN
APPROACH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE CENTRAL COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:29 AM PST SUNDAY...DESPITE THE STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FROM
THE CENTRAL VALLEY HAVE PUSHED ACROSS THE DELTA AND INTO THE NORTH
AND EAST BAY VALLEYS AGAIN THIS MORNING. WHILE THE FOG MAY BECOME
DENSE AT TIMES...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG FORMATION OVER
THIS REGION. REGARDLESS...THESE CONDITIONS (SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY)
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RAPIDLY WARMING UNTIL BURN-OFF OCCURS
LATE IN THE MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH AND ALONG THE COAST DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH A WARM/DRY AIR MASS ALOFT. WITH
THIS...NEAR RECORD WARMTH IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 SOUTH OF THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY SHOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S ACROSS THAT REGION WITH PORTIONS OF THE EAST BAY AND NORTH BAY
REACHING INTO THE LOWER 70S.

THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY INLAND EARLY IN THE WEEK
AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL BY A FEW DEGREES. MEANWHILE...A
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTHWARD ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THE
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS DEEPER
MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE BAY AREA...MAINLY OVER
MONTEREY...SANTA CRUZ...SANTA CLARA AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES TUESDAY
MORNING. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO BECOME SHEARED
APART AND SHIFT FURTHER INLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT...ENDING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION. ANY RAINFALL THAT DOES FALL OVER THE
REGION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT AND DO VERY LITTLE (OR NOTHING)
TO HELP IN THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK AS ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
SOUTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF
THE WEST COAST. ANOTHER WARMING TREND CURRENTLY EXPECTED FOR LATE IN
TH WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND BUILDS OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:40 AM PST SUNDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS.
THERE`LL BE AREAS OF FOG OR HAZE IN THE EAST AND NORTH
BAYS...MAINLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND/OR MORNING HOURS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT SE WINDS EXCEPT UP TO
10-12 KNOTS AT KSNS.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
HERE IS THE LIST OF RECORDS ALONG WITH THE JANUARY WARMEST HIGH
TEMPERATURE READINGS AND THE LATEST YEAR THEY OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA...

LOCATION       TODAY (1/25)  JANUARY WARMEST
KENTFIELD        77/1934       79/1962
SAN RAFAEL       70/2014       82/1962
NAPA             83/1899       85/1962
SAN FRANCISCO    74/1899       79/1962
SFO AIRPORT      68/2011       73/2014
OAKLAND          73/2014       78/2014
OAK AIRPORT      70/2014       77/2014
RICHMOND         69/2011       76/1962
LIVERMORE        73/1911       77/1911
MOUNTAIN VIEW    72/2014       76/1948
SAN JOSE         71/2014       79/1962
GILROY           77/2014       80/2014

NORTH CENTRAL COAST...

MONTEREY         78/1942         84/2014
SANTA CRUZ       80/1899         84/2014
SALINAS          78/2014         87/2014
SNS AIRPORT      78/2014         86/2014
KING CITY        77/2014         86/1976

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:29 AM PST SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT GRADUALLY WEAKEN. WINDS
WILL BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FROM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY FOR A RETURN TO NORTHWEST WINDS. A LARGE LONG PERIOD
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL RESULT IN LARGE BREAKERS
NEAR BARS...SHOALS AND JETTIES LEADING TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
              SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA
CLIMATE: CANEPA/JOHNSON

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