Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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FXUS66 KMTR 022208
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
208 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A
GRADUAL WINDING DOWN OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SOUTH OF
THE SF BAY AREA. AS THE LOW MOVES WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE DRYING AND WARMING TREND ACROSS THE AREA
BY MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:06 PM PST MONDAY... LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWS THE CENTER OF OUR WEATHER SYSTEM IS PRESENTLY
PASSING VERY CLOSE TO SAN FRANCISCO. THIS IS GENERALLY IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WHERE COMPUTER MODELS INDICATED IT SHOULD BE
AROUND THIS TIME. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS ACTIVE AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. SMALL HAIL HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN MOST OF THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS AS FREEZING LEVELS REMAIN FAIRLY LOW. TEMPERATURES HAVE
UNDER PERFORMED EXPECTATIONS TODAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
HOLDING READINGS DOWN. THE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ITS
SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT DOWN THE COAST AND BY LATE THIS EVENING WILL BE
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER WILL EXPECT AT LEAST SOME
SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING SOUTH OF THE SAN FRANCISCO
BAY AND WILL KEEP A MENTION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY THE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD BRING MORE SUN TO THE AREA
FOR TUESDAY AND THUS WARMER TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD BE IN THE
60S. THIS DRIER AND QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
PACIFIC BUILDS INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE EACH DAY
WITH HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 70S ACROSS INLAND AREAS FOR THE MIDDLE
AND LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN COOL
WITH THE DRY AIRMASS AND SO LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FROST. THIS
TOO WILL MODERATE AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND SO BY THURSDAY
NIGHT READINGS OVERNIGHT WILL WARM MORE INTO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOW/MID 40S. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN AND
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN NOT IN THE FORECAST UNTIL LATE MONDAY OR
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:40 AM PST MONDAY...LATEST OBS/TRENDS INDICATE
POPCORN SHOWERS...SOME OF THEM INTENSE...AND SCATTERED BKN-OVC
CIGS AROUND THE BAY AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE CASE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM SLIDES DOWN THE
COAST. GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED FROM N TO S THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. FORECASTING MAINLY VFR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

VICINITY OF KSFO...TRICKY CIGS AROUND SFO...BUT CONF IS GROWING
THAT ANY CIGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 2K FT. WILL KEEP SOME CIGS IN THE
3500-5000 FOOT RANGE THROUGH 20-21Z THEN LIFTING. OAK WILL REMAIN
TRICKY WITH THE WINDS. WILL HOLD ONTO SE TO S WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE SW IN THE 19-20Z TIME PERIOD. CIGS WILL LINGER LONGER AT OAK
THIS AM AS WELL.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONT TO IMPACT
MRY AND SNS THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. BETTER CHANCE FOR CLEARING
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. VFR TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 01:46 PM PST MONDAY...A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY RATHER QUICKLY. THE PASSING STORM
WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WIND AND SEAS FORECAST FROM MIDWEEK
AND BEYOND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: JOHNSON
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

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