Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 260543
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1043 PM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TONIGHT WILL BE WARM WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AROUND
THE FORECAST AREA. A STRONGER SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND
WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH THE GREATEST COOLING
EXPECTED AT THE COAST. NO BIG CHANGES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES WITH DRY WEATHER OVER THE BAY AREA AND
CONTINUED SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT FRIDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
OVER THE SOUTHWEST EXTENDED INTO CALIFORNIA TODAY. THE WARM
AIRMASS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S AND 80S AT THE
COAST AND 90S TO AS HIGH AS 104 DEGREES IN PARTS OF THE NORTH AND
EAST BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS. A RECORD HIGH OF 85 DEGREES WAS SET IN
DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO.

THE HIGH WILL BE PUSHED EAST ON SATURDAY AS WEAK UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONGER SEABREEZE
RESULTING IN COOLING OVER THE DISTRICT. COASTAL AREAS WILL BE
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER SATURDAY WITH LESS SIGNIFICANT COOLING
INLAND. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN UP FROM THE SOUTH. AT
THIS TIME THE BEST DYNAMICS FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION APPEAR TO BE
EAST OF THE DISTRICT.

THE HIGH WILL PUSH A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHICH MAY BRING A VERY SLIGHT DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE
LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 PM PDT FRIDAY...THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT
FROM ACV TO SFO REMAINS QUITE STRONG AT 6.6 MB AND THE LOW LEVELS
ARE STILL WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY. THUS...LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT WILL EASE
OVERNIGHT AND LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD DEVELOP IN MOST COASTAL AREAS BY
LATE TONIGHT. BASED ON 00Z MODEL OUTPUT...ONLY PATCHY LOW CIGS/FOG
ARE EXPECTED AROUND SF BAY AND IN THE COASTAL VALLEYS. INLAND
CLEARING WILL OCCUR EARLY ON SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT WITH MODERATE SEABREEZE WINDS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY EXCEPT POSSIBLE PATCHY IFR CIGS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE
TERMINAL. LOW CIGS MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE MODERATE-HIGH. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...INCREASING TO ABOUT 17 KNOTS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIFR CIGS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY 08Z
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY. MVFR VISIBILITY IN
HAZE AND FOG LIKELY AS WELL. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CLEARING SHOULD
OCCUR BY LATE MORNING SATURDAY WITH EARLIER RETURN OF LOW CIGS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT FRIDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS ARE THEN
FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXCEPT
MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION/MARINE: DYKEMA

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