Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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FXUS66 KMTR 091322
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
522 AM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY TREND COOLER THROUGH THE
THE REST OF THE WEEK. OUTSIDE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER
THE FAR NORTH BAY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST INTO AT LEAST THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST TUESDAY...MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW
THIS MORNING AT THE SURFACE HAS ALLOWED US TO START THE DAY WITH
CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING COOLER THAN NORMAL YESTERDAY
PARTIALLY DUE TO CALM WINDS. IN ADDITION, THE RIDGE AXIS HAS
SHIFTED A BIT TO OUR EAST ALLOWING 500 MB HEIGHTS TO DROP AROUND
10 DM COMPARED TO YESTERDAY PLUS 850 MB TEMPS HAVE LOWERED 1-2C.
DESPITE THIS, ANOTHER ROUND OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH WALL-TO-WALL SUNSHINE. ONLY REAL QUESTION IS WILL
WE BREAK ANY RECORDS TODAY? UNLIKE YESTERDAY`S SLEW OF RECORD
HIGHS, TODAY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO JUST A FEW AT BEST SINCE HIGHS
ARE FORECAST TO BE 3 TO 6 DEGREES COOLER IN MANY SPOTS. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF RECENT TRENDS HOLD AND THE MODELS
OVERESTIMATE THE COOLING AFTER A DAY OF RECORD HEAT. WE HAVE BEEN
CAUGHT OFF-GUARD WITH A FEW RECENT EVENTS WITH THE HEAT STAYING
ONE EXTRA DAY. RECORD VALUES ARE IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB HEIGHTS WILL SLIGHTLY DECREASE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A LONGWAVE TROF NEARS THE COAST. BY FRIDAY
THE TROF WILL ADVANCE TO THE COAST WITH RAIN STRETCHING FROM
NORCAL UP TO THE BC COASTLINE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN TO MOVE TO THE NORTH BAY ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, EVEN THAT LOOKS UNLIKELY AT BEST. LEFT POPS IN THE 15 TO
20% RANGE FOR THAT PERIOD. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 60S TO
THE MID 70S.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK TOWARD OUR REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND AND TO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
FORCE THE STORM TRACK MORE TO THE NORTH. AGAIN HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.

RAIN MAY RETURN TO OUR REGION BY NEXT WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY AS
MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ECMWF/GFS/GEM ALL INDICATE
RAIN IN OUR CWA NEXT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY LEADING TO A HIGHER
CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN THE DAY 8-9 TIME FRAME FOR THE RETURN OF
MOISTURE. HALF OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO INDICATE RAINFALL
DURING THAT PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:20 AM PST TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH TUESDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW HAS
WEAKENED SO WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5-10 KT
AFTER 21Z.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR TUESDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 9TH HIGH AND YEAR
--------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        74 IN 1945
SAN RAFAEL       70 IN 2006
NAPA             75 IN 2006
SAN FRANCISCO    74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   74 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  69 IN 2006
RICHMOND         75 IN 1988
LIVERMORE        77 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         74 IN 2006
GILROY           78 IN 2012

SANTA CRUZ       78 IN 2006
SALINAS          84 IN 2006
SALINAS AIRPORT  81 IN 2006
KING CITY        86 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:43 PM PST MONDAY...A STRONG AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN GAPS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN
TUESDAY AS THE HIGH WEAKENS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: W PI
CLIMATE: BELL


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