Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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FXUS66 KMTR 312048
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
148 PM PDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A ridge of high pressure will promote a warming trend
across the forecast area which is expected to stretch into
Saturday. Inland temperatures will warm into the mid 80s to upper
90s with even a few 100s. Meanwhile coastal locations will remain
cool. An upper level storm system will approach the Southern
California Coast by the weekend bringing cooler temperatures to
our area on by Sunday.

&&

.Discussion...as of 1:49 PM PDT Tuesday...Mostly clear skies are
being reported across the forecast area this afternoon.
However...the current visible satellite image does show stratus
along the coast and the Fort Ord Profiler is indicating a marine
layer with a depth of 1000 feet. Under mostly clear skies the
forecast area has warmed into the mid 80s to low 90s inland.
Temperatures remain in the upper 50s to low 60s along the
immediate coast.

Currently the satellite water vapour image is showing a ridge of
high pressure positioned over California with a low pressure
center pushing through the Desert Southwest. Additionally, a low
pressure system remains centered approximately 1000 miles off of
the Southern California coast.

The 1200Z ECMWF and GFS20 have initialized well with the current
synoptic weather pattern and remain in good agreement through the
weekend. Both models maintain a ridge of high pressure over
California through at least Friday. Generally light winds are
expected at the surface through weekend. The combination of high
pressure aloft and light surface winds will result in a warming
trend this week. For the most part temperatures will peak on
Friday, but the inland areas will remain hot on Saturday. Again the
warmest temperatures are expected to occur inland with coastal
temperatures remaining on the cool side. During this period of hot
weather the airmass will remain dry, allowing temperatures to cool
quickly at night. Therefore, no excessive heat messages are needed
at this time. One exception to the cool overnight temperatures
will be the Big Sur area where overnight temperatures will remain
in the mid to upper 70s on Thursday night through Saturday night.

As previously discussed the forecast models have been moving an
upper level low pressure system towards Southern California which
will bring an end to the hot weather by Sunday. The low is
expected to slide across Southern California on Sunday promoting
an unstable atmospheric environment. However, nearly all of the
forecast models are currently forecasting a dry atmosphere.
Therefore, have removed the mention of showers from the forecast
for the Saturday and Sunday time period. We will continue to
assess this situation as the models evolve, keeping an eye out for
any source of moisture that could fuel thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...as of 10:50 AM PDT Monday...VFR conditions persist
this morning over all terminals as low clouds and fog over
portions of the region have lifted and/or retreated to the coast.
Wind speeds will increase slightly through late morning and early
afternoon and persist into the early evening before diminishing
tonight. A shallow marine layer will once again bring low clouds
and potentially fog to the Monterey Bay Area terminals as well as
the North Bay terminals late tonight into early Wednesday morning.
Do expect most of the San Francisco Bay terminals to remain VFR
through the forecast package, yet few/sct low clouds cannot be
ruled out.

Vicinity of KSFO...VFR conditions. West-northwest winds increase
this afternoon and diminish slightly tonight. High confidence
overall, low confidence for any return of lowering ceilings or
visibilities early Wednesday morning.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions. Onshore flow will
increase slightly this afternoon and diminish this evening.
Shallow marine layer will likely allow for a return of low
ceilings and visibilities beyond 03Z Wednesday that will continue
through about 15Z. Moderate to high confidence.

&&

.MARINE...as of 8:48 AM PDT Tuesday...Northerly winds will
persist across the coastal waters as high pressure remains
positioned along the West Coast. A mixed swell will continue to
impact the coast with a moderate short period northwest swell and
a longer period southerly swell.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tngt...SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
             SCA...SF Bay until 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: Larry
AVIATION: RGass
MARINE: RGass


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