Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA

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FXUS66 KOTX 302349
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
449 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Dry and hot weather will persist for the next several days. High
temperatures in the 90s to near 105 will be common through the
beginning of next week. A gradual cooling trend will take place by
mid week. A more dramatic change to the hot pattern is possible by
the middle of next week with an increasing threat of thunderstorms
each day from Monday through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Friday....The slight amplification of the ridge over
the area allows hot and dry conditions to continue and peak Friday
with a number of locations heating up to and slightly over 100
degrees Fahrenheit. A weak weather disturbance tightens the
pressure gradient across the cascades up a bit late in the
afternoon Friday which will allow for some of the gap winds to
increase and be gusty. This gusty wind along with the hot an dry
conditions warrants a highlight with a fire weather watch which is
in effect for Friday afternoon and evening for parts of the fire
weather forecast area which includes the Wenatchee
area...Waterville Plateau....and the Kittitas and Yakima valleys.
/Pelatti

Friday night through Sunday: Upper level ridge remains in place
with very hot temperatures expected to continue through the
weekend. Daytime temps 10 to 12 degrees above average will be
seen...or widespread 90s in all the valleys with 100-105 across
portions of the Columbia Basin...Lewiston/Clarkston Valley and
Wenatchee up along the Highway 97 corridor towards Entiat.
Overnight lows will be about 5 to 8 degrees above average. Skies
will remain mostly clear Friday and Saturday. By Sunday we start
to see more cloud cover as some moisture from the south creeps up
into the southern portions of WA and the central ID Panhandle.

...UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Monday through Thursday: Monday an upper level low pressure system
moves out of the Gulf of Alaska and towards British Columbia. This
will push our ridge axis east and open up the Pacific Northwest to
south or southwesterly flow. Both the GFS and EC are showing
energy and associated moisture moving up from the desert
southwest. The models do not agree very well on specific timing,
but it looks as though we are entering a period of more unsettled
weather starting Monday and continuing on through most of the
week. The timing of these waves moving through is important,
because it could mean the difference in a widespread thunderstorm
or gust front outbreak verses some isolated thunderstorms moving
through. Models seem to agree on a Wednesday timeframe for a
potential cold front moving through for currently the best day of
potential widespread thunderstorms. For now the changes that have
been made are bringing the chance of thunderstorms just a bit
further west than previous forecast. Increased cloud cover given
the increase in moisture. Have kept temperatures very warm Monday
and Tuesday and then show a gradual cool down for Wed and Thur
towards more seasonal averages. /Nisbet

&&

.AVIATION... 00Z TAFS: High pressure will continue to bring VFR
conditions including clear skies and relatively light winds the TAF
sites through Friday afternoon. Only possible issue could be smoke
from Wolverine fire reaching Wenatchee later tonight. Model runs
keep most of the smoke confined to Lake Chelan and points north of
Wenatchee through the night so we will leave out of forecast for
now. fx


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        64  98  64  96  66  95 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  59  96  58  96  61  95 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        57  98  56  96  58  95 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       68 105  69 104  69 103 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       57 100  57  98  59  97 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      52  93  52  93  54  91 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        57  96  57  95  58  94 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     62 102  63 101  66 100 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      70 103  68 100  72 100 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           62 102  62 101  65  99 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...FIRE Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for East Washington Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 677)-East
     Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East
     Washington South Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 676).

&&

$$


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