Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA

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FXUS66 KOTX 250531
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1031 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moves into the Inland Northwest through mid-week,
providing scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and
smaller chances in the morning and night. Locally heavy rain,
small hail and gusty winds will be possible in storms. Some chance
of showers continues into the second part of the week into next
weekend, especially in the mountains. Next weekend also looks to
warm with summer-like temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Satellite imagery this evening indicates a closed low over
southern BC slowly moving south. Earlier today afternoon heating
helped destabilize the atmosphere leading to the development of
showers and thunderstorms over the Northern Cascades, Okanogan
Valley and Highlands, extending south into the Upper Columbia
Basin and Waterville Plateau this evening. Meanwhile a secondary
area of showers and thunderstorms was found over the Central
Panhandle Mountains.

While surface based instability is on the decrease this evening...plenty
of mid level moisture and instability is present across Northeast
Washington and North Idaho. The main area of shower and
thunderstorm activity stretching from the Upper Columbia Basin and
NE Washington Mountains is shown by the GFS, HRRR, and NAM to
swing towards N Idaho through the overnight hours. Convection
between Coeur D`Alene and Shoshone county will also get drawn
north with the approaching low. Thus...POP`s were increased in
these areas. Models also show a general increase in showers across
the Spokane area possibly extending into the palouse late this
evening and overnight. Areas along and north of I-90 over NE
Washington and N Idaho will have the best opportunity for
nocturnal thunderstorms with MUCAPE values of 300-600 J/KG during
the overnight hours. Cloudy skies will result in mild overnight
lows in the mid 50s for NE WA and N Idaho and low temps were
increased.  JW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A closed low in southern BC will drop south into
northern WA through Monday. This will result in showers and
scattered thunderstorms especially for the northern mountains and
Idaho Panhandle given the cold pool aloft with the low over the
area. The highest coverage of thunderstorm activity will be during
peak heating (20z Mon-02z Tue) but isolated nocturnal
thunderstorms will continue overnight into Monday morning with mid
level instability in place over Northeast Washington and North
Idaho. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        55  71  51  73  52  77 /  60  50  40  60  40  30
Coeur d`Alene  55  70  49  73  50  75 /  70  70  40  60  40  40
Pullman        49  69  45  71  47  73 /  20  20  10  40  30  40
Lewiston       55  77  52  78  55  79 /  10  20  10  20  20  30
Colville       55  74  50  76  50  81 /  90  90  60  70  40  30
Sandpoint      54  70  48  72  49  74 /  80  70  60  60  50  40
Kellogg        53  70  46  72  47  73 /  60  80  50  60  50  50
Moses Lake     54  79  54  80  53  84 /  10  10  20  20  20  20
Wenatchee      56  78  56  79  59  84 /   0  20  20  40  30  20
Omak           50  77  50  78  51  84 /  20  50  50  60  40  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$


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