Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 290710
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
210 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE APPALACHIANS WILL SLIDE EAST OVER
THE ATLANTIC...AS A SHORT WAVE DRIVES A COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ALONG
AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...AND WORK THEIR WAY
SOUTH ACROSS THE FA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL HAVE
NEARLY COMPLETELY MADE PASSAGE BY 06Z...WITH SHOWERS EFFECTIVELY
ENDING BY/AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MID MISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT`S DEPARTURE MONDAY. THIS WILL HELP
TEMPS THAT WERE IN THE 50S SUNDAY...RECOVER INTO THE 60S FOR
MONDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO
NUDGE THE MERCURY UPWARDS TOWARD 70 DEGREES FOR TUESDAY HIGHS.
LOWS LIKEWISE WILL MODERATE FROM THE 30S TONIGHT TO 40S TOMORROW
NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER ON AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG WITH
THE WARM ADVECTION...SO FOR NOW WE WILL LEAVE TUESDAY DRY IN THE
FORECAST...BUT A SMALL POP MAY EVENTUALLY BE WARRANTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED IS RELATIVELY POOR...SO FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS CORRESPONDINGLY LOWER THAN AVERAGE. A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN WILL START OFF THE LONG TERM...WITH THE FORECAST AREA
NESTLED BETWEEN BOTH ACTIVE STREAMS. AS A RESULT...MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD CARRY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
SOME MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THE POTENTIAL THAT WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY COULD AGGRAVATE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE VERY LOW AT
THIS POINT.

A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE
REGION WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE OHIO RIVER AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE APPROACH OF THE LOW WILL KEEP
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. WHILE STILL TOO EARLY FOR AN ACCURATE ASSESSMENT...SEVERE
WEATHER CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE WEEK...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW.

DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BUT UNTIL THEN...TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM. DAYTIME READINGS SHOULD AVERAGE 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH NIGHTTIME READINGS SOME 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH LATER TODAY...ALLOWING
CLOUDS TO INCREASE WITH MID DECK CIGS DEVELOPING BY THIS PM. THESE
CIGS MAY PRODUCE A PASSING SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS THE
FRONT MAKES ITS PASSAGE. CLOUDS SHOULD DISPERSE AGAIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT DEPARTS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ITS
WAKE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$



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