Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 261152

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
651 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Issued at 651 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Updated aviation discussion only.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

The models continue to forecast a mid level shortwave approaching
and moving through the Midwest, including the PAH forecast area,
today and tonight, damping out a bit as it moves east. An
attendant surface low will also move through IA and northern parts
of IN/IL/OH and begin to fill.

As return moisture remains limited, the highest PoPs (40+%) for
showers will continue to be over southern IL and most of
southeastern MO, near the better energy aloft. Parts of western KY
may not receive any rainfall at all, despite a surface cold front
moving through the region late tonight/early Thursday morning. The
models have backed off slightly with the onset of pcpn; the
daylight hours today are expected to be dry for all but the
farthest northwestern counties. Thunderstorm activity is not
expected to be common, but instability parameters suggest it is
possible tonight ahead of the front.

A area of high surface pressure will follow later in the week,
before low level return flow re-establishes itself under zonal
flow aloft. This will cause a robust warming trend into the
weekend. Except for Thursday/Thursday night, well above average
temps can be expected in the short term, with low to moderate
humidity. Enjoy the weather, as we are now in mid-autumn.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Confidence in the extended portion of the forecast is high.

The four state region will be on the northern fringe of high
pressure aloft throughout the period. Meanwhile, there will be a
progressive mainly zonal flow over the northern tier of states and
southern Canada. Disturbances in this flow will have little impact
on the area through the period.

At the surface, the cold front will remain north of the region,
resulting in dry and warm conditions through the period. However, it
may try to dip into northern portions of the area in response to
disturbances moving eastward through the Great Lakes. The 00Z model
consensus has this occurring late Sunday and again late Tuesday.

The 00Z models keep the area dry with the potential frontal
intrusion Sunday afternoon and night, as high pressure aloft will be
nudging north into the region. The 00Z GFS and the GEFS mean spit
out some very minor QPF with the intrusion Tuesday afternoon and
night primarily along the I-64 corridor, while the 00Z ECMWF is dry.
We are in a dry period, and would normally try to keep the forecast
dry, but for collaborative reasons will introduce a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms along I-64 Tuesday afternoon and night.
The 00Z GFS has slightly negative Showalter and Lifted Indices,
thus the thunder mention.

Temperatures throughout the period will be well above normal with
lows mainly in the 50s, and highs mainly in the 70s throughout the
area. Saturday will be the hottest day with lower 80s possible, to
go along with gusty southwest winds. Will not be surprised to see
some 80s Monday through Wednesday, especially if the boundary stays
completely north of the region.


Issued at 651 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Weather conditions will continue to be predominantly VFR, with only
high clouds for much of the 24 hour TAF period, lowering to around 5
kft in some locations after nightfall as a cold front approaches.
Sustained winds will be out of the southwest after sunrise today,
generally below 10 knots but with possible gusts into the teens.
Scattered shower activity (and possibly a tstm or two) is expected
in some locations, but at the TAF sites it is predicted to be sparse
enough to necessitate a mention only at KCGI this evening. Vsby
restrictions, if any, are expected to be brief.




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