Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 301731
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1230 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE WET PATTERN SET UP IS ONGOING/DEVELOPING. ON THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE...WE SEE A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROF IN THE EAST. OVER
THE COURSE OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD...SEVERAL SHOTS OF
VORTICITY/ENERGY WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MEAN LONG WAVE
TROF SET UP ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. A BOUNDARY WILL LAY OUT
BY MID WEEK...AND WITH THE WNW FLOW ALOFT BY THAT TIME...IT SHOULD
LEAD TO TRAINING OF DAILY THUNDERSTORMS THAT RESULTS IN SOME NICE
RAINS FOR OUR AREA GIVEN HIGH PW`S. WED-THU LOOKS PARTICULARLY WET
AS LIKELY POPS THREATEN CATEGORICAL AND QPF AMOUNTS RANGE FROM
1-3". A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO...BUT IT`LL BE GOOD TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE/RAINS SET
UP FOR FORECAST AND AREAL CERTAINTY BEFORE WE PULL THAT TRIGGER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH THE
PERSISTENT LOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. THIS WILL KEEP
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A SURFACE REFLECTION OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MEANDER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONE GOOD THING IS
THERE IS LOW QPF EXPECTED WITH THE EXTENDED. OF COURSE WITH PW`S
RANGING BETWEEN 1.5" AND 2" ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. LI`S REMAIN NEGATIVE WITH CAPE`S REMAINING
1K AND 2K J/KG2...SO A FEW STRONG STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. IN
ADDITION WITH A FRONT IN THE AREA ALONG WITH ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...SEVERE STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

AS FOR TEMPS THEY WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY BUT WARM TO
AROUND NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A BLANKET OF SMOKE OVER OUR REGION IS DUE TO WILDFIRES IN THE
PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA. PER TELEPHONE CONVERSATION WITH THE
KMWA AIRPORT MANAGER...THE BASE OF THE SMOKE LAYER IS AROUND 5K FEET
AND A PILOT REPORTED A TOTAL OBSCURATION. THEREFORE...WILL INCLUDE A
BROKEN DECK AT 5K FEET. THIS WILL ACCOUNT FOR THE SMOKE AS WELL AS
CUMULUS CLOUDS...WHICH WILL BE BASED ABOUT THE SAME HEIGHT.

VARIOUS COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WABASH VALLEY AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WILL
INTRODUCE VCTS FOR THE KEVV/KOWB AREAS THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD BYPASS THOSE SITES TO THE NORTH AND EAST.

EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE VERY LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVER
MISSOURI TONIGHT...AND MAY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN IL TO THE
KEVV/KOWB AREAS WED MORNING. ELSEWHERE...WILL BRING A MID LEVEL CIG
IN VERY LATE TONIGHT...BUT HOLD OFF ON PRECIP MENTION.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...MY


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