Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 230528 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
128 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Sunshine and moderating temperatures today. Rain chances return
this weekend with a continued warming trend.


No changes needed to the overnight period.

As the surface high moves toward the Chesapeake Bay today, warm
advection will take over. This will allow for temperatures to
rebound toward more seasonal levels. Plenty of sunshine today as
a very dry atmosphere remains in place. May be some passing
cirrus this afternoon, but any real cloud increase will hold off
until the evening.


Models are continuing the trend of pushing the deep moisture,
large scale ascension and measurable precipitation further
north. In addition to the shift northward, precipitation onset
is slowing. This is all in response to a slowly strengthening
ridge over the Upper Ohio Valley tonight. This is allowing for
a rapidly warming atmosphere, and in turn a drier and more
stable atmosphere. As heights rise tonight, most, if not all,
of the shortwave energy will be shoved northward toward the
Great Lakes. Because of this, have shifted PoP coverage
northward tonight and removed the mention of freezing rain.

Main shortwave will pass quickly to the east Friday morning and
the warm advection and rising upper level heights will continue.
Any linger showers will quickly end during the morning. The
push northward of the eastern ridge will also shove the warm
front further to the north, engulfing the entire area in the
expanding warm sector. This will help to keep the rest of Friday
dry and temperatures above normal.

With the possible exception of the far north, Saturday looks
dry as well. Plenty of subsidence with the eastern ridge firmly
in place and any upper level waves will be shoved well to the
north of the area. There will be additional cloud cover
Saturday, as the atmosphere slowly becomes more saturated. Even
warmer temperatures are expected on Saturday.


An upper low ejecting from the Plains into the Great Lakes will
push a front our way on Sunday with good rain chances. The
front may linger near the area on Monday with some showers,
before another low threatens to bring higher rain chances once
again Monday night or Tuesday. Dry weather and high pressure may
then return by the middle of next week. Above normal
temperatures are a strong possibility throughout.


Building high pressure will ensure VFR and light, variable wind
through much of tonight. A crossing shortwave in conjunction
with a warm front may generate some light rain for FKL and DUJ
in the post 06z period of Friday.

The next chance for widespread restrictions is not expected
until the approach of low pressure early on Sunday.




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