Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 191227

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
727 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017

Dry and warm conditions will continue until a frontal system
crosses the region Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning. Well
above normal temperatures are expected through the end of the
work week.


Adjusted sky grids for stratus closer to satellite and surface
observations for the morning update. No other changes and
previous discussion follows.

Expect some morning clouds, mainly over the southern half of
the area, as a period of weak cold air advection swings through
behind the exiting shortwave trough. Most of the clouds will
decay by the afternoon. With the cloud cover and weak cold air
advection, temperatures will not be as warm as Saturday but will
still be well above normal.


Strong ridging builds in the wake of the departing low through
this period, with 500mb heights approaching 576dam by Tuesday
morning. With nearly clear skies and warm advection, expect the
continuation of very warm temperatures through Tuesday, before
a cold front approaches Tuesday afternoon/night.

With such a strong ridge in place over the east, have slowed the
onset of showers from previous forecast.


Long term continues to highlight an above-average temperature
trend, as has been suggested by long-range guidance. Despite
the passage of the front Tuesday night, mid-level ridging will
quickly build back over the eastern CONUS as the trough
amplifies over the southwestern US and then ejects into the
central Plains by the end of period.

Looks like a return to more normal temperatures by the weekend.


MVFR stratus has developed across southern ports and is
spreading north and east, especially up the front side of the
ridges. With weak cool advection to continue this morning, have
kept stratus in southern ports until 16-18Z, and have added MVFR
to KPIT and AGC, as well as KDUJ. Uncertainty is with sunrise
how quickly status can be mixed, and this may be too pessimistic
for KPIT and surrounding ports. Southwest winds will become
west near 10 KTs through the day.

The next chance for widespread restrictions will be with a Tuesday
cold front.




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