Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 240210
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
910 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather can then be expected until the approach of the next
front on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mid and high clouds are lingering north and east of Pittsburgh
this evening as an upper level weave traverses the eastern
Great Lakes region. Trajectories suggest these clouds may linger
along and north of I-80 for a few more hours before the entire
area eventually clears overnight. Model soundings indicate a
dearth of moisture below the mid-levels, so precipitation is
not expected from this wave as it passes...just clouds. During
the overnight hours, clearing skies in the wake of the wave and
rapid boundary layer decoupling/radiational cooling will result
in yet another cold night. Fries

Warm air advection begins in earnest Friday morning, which
should bring a quick warmup once mixing commences after
daybreak. Highs should recover to near normal or even slightly
above average readings.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Clouds will increase Friday night ahead of the next cold front.
While models have maintained the broader details of the frontal
passage, some of the finer details have been modified over the
last 24 hours. Higher rain chances along and ahead of the cold
front will still be largely confined to the northern 1/3 of the
forecast area, but will move in during early morning hours.
Current thinking is that southerly flow and increased cloud
cover will keep Friday night lows a few degrees warmer than
previous forecast.

Cold air aloft won`t move in until Saturday afternoon in the
wake of the cold front. This should help blossom shower activity
in the afternoon/evening, but relatively warm surface
temperatures should keep these showers in the liquid form. By
the time the column cools enough to support snow, late Saturday
evening, mid-level moisture will be non-existent and low-level
moisture will be on the decline. Snow showers will certainly be
possible north of I-80 and in the Ridges, but the window of
solid cold air advection in northwest flow Sunday morning is
shorter than previously indicated. Snow showers will be be
limited outside of the previously mentioned areas. Still
looking for little to no accumulation.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will be the dominant feature Sunday and through
the first part of next week...resulting in dry conditions and a
warming trend in temperatures. The next system is progged to
impact the region in the middle of next week. SuperBlend was
utilized heavily in the construction of the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions will dominate through the TAF period. Wind will
back slightly towards the southwest with time, and remain
generally light.

.Outlook...
Restriction potential returns with a Sat cold front, and
subsequent cold NW flow and upper troughing through early Sun.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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