Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 052343
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
743 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE FOR RADAR/HI-RES MODEL TRENDS. INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH 01Z OR SO. A RELATIVE LULL IN ACTIVITY
SHOULD TAKE HOLD DURING THE LATE EVENING...BEFORE SHRA ORGANIZE
AGAIN IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE/SHORTWAVE
SUPPORT CONCENTRATES THERE. UPDATED HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT CURVES
BUT LEFT MIN TEMP FORECAST ALONE FOR NOW.
CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH FRIDAY WHICH SUPPORTS KEEPING
LIKELY POPS IN THE RIDGES AND HIGH CHANCE POPS BACK TOWARD
PITTSBURGH...AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES ROTATE AROUND THE FILLING
UPPER LOW. AGAIN...THINK COVERAGE WILL INCREASE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...SO POPS ARE HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON. 850HPA
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM AS THE LOW FILLS SO TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY MAY BE JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO BE ABSORBED
BACK INTO THE UPPER PATTERN AND PUSHED EAST AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS
OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE POPS
FOR A BRIEF TIME SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE THE APPROACH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS IS RATHER GOOD WHICH SUPPORTS
LIKELY POPS SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAYS TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST
CLOSER TO OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WARM 850HPA
TEMPS RETURN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE LARGELY BE DRY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
TRANSITIONS OVER THE AREA. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE MONDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT...WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR
UNTIL THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES WEDNESDAY. WITH INCREASED
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS
EVENING AS THE SUN SETS. LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR SOUTH WILL PIVOT
TO THE EAST TONIGHT...BRINGING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH. THIS
WILL QUELL SHOWER CHANCES OVERNIGHT...AND KEEP CEILINGS FROM
DROPPING SIGNIFICANTLY. EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR OVERNIGHT...BUT
POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR LOW MVFR ALONG OUR EAST...WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND NORTHEAST FLOW SETS UP.

FRIDAY WILL BRING SIMILAR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY EAST. NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND
AT 10KTS OR LESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
TAX

.OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH A SATURDAY NIGHT COLD
FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



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