Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 240510 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
110 AM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

A stagnant mid-level trough will keep very humid conditions over
the region today with a continued threat for showers and
thunderstorms. Dry conditions are expected Tuesday through early


For the overnight period, will need to rely heavily on radar and
satellite trends and updated hires guidance. All indication are
that rain will diminish in intensity overnight as the shortwave
trough spins toward Eastern Pennsylvania. Will keep the highest
PoPs overnight ahead of this wave and also continue the mention
for heavy rain.

Another shortwave trough sweeps through this afternoon which
will keep in the risk for showers and storms. Coverage of the
activity looks to be limited as the strongest large scale ascent
will be well to the north of the region and the atmosphere
aloft will be drying quickly. Additionally, the lower levels
will not be nearly as unstable as it has been over the weekend.
Isolated strong storms could still develop this afternoon as
forecast soundings are showing notable speed shear, and if we
can get some sun this morning, we should be able to approach
convective temperatures.


Upper level heights will rise on Tuesday, and a broad surface
high will build into the Great Lakes. This will finally bring a
stretch of dry weather and sunshine for Tues/Wed.


A deep upper trough and associated surface cold front will
settle south from Ontario on Thursday, bringing the threat for
showers/storms during the afternoon and evening.

Forecast for Friday into the weekend gets a bit muddy. If the
aforementioned wave progresses into the Southeast, then the
weekend is shaping up to be spectacular with dry conditions and
highs around 80. Some model solutions open the upper wave up
across the Appalachians keeping the threat for clouds and
precipitation (especially over the eastern ridges) into Friday
and Saturday.


Behind the showers/thunderstorms deterioration back to MVFR and
possibly IFR is expected. A mix of morning stratus and fog is
expected over much of the area, with fog favored in the clearing
further west.

Improvement to VFR through the morning. The very slow moving
boundary will sag south today, re-invigorating showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon, mainly south of FKL and DUJ.

VFR is expected to prevail toward midweek as high pressure
builds in.




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