Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 270913
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
413 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SWING THROUGH TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE HEADS OFF THE EAST COAST. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE
CONDUCIVE TO WAA...SHOVING WHAT`S LEFT OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT WELL
TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN
MODELS WITH THE SPEED OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND HOW MUCH SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY. WILL LEAN TOWARD A BIT
SLOWER OF A SOLUTION...AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS WELL TO THE
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A DRY FORECAST TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TIMING AND LOCATION OF FRONT AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD BECOME AN
ISSUE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. FEEL CONFIDENT THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE
SHOWERS TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE DECREASES SUNDAY ON LOCATION OF THE PRECIP SHIELD AND
HOW FAST THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE WARMER AIR MASS...MEANING MOSTLY SHOWERS. BUT BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE COLDER AIR BEGINS TO DIVE SOUTHWARD...
MODELS ARE HINTING THAT SOME PRECIP MAY LINGER TO THE NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD MEAN THAT ANY PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL CHANGE TO SNOW. ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL BE LIGHT AND IT WILL
TAKE TIME FOR SURFACE TEMPS TO REACT TO THE COLDER AIR ALOFT...SO
ANY SNOWFALL SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE...BUT IT DOES MAKE FOR A
DIFFICULT FORECAST.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES AND SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SHOVE THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH...AGAIN DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS HERE
MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT FORECAST. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTION
BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

ON MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. SUNDAY`S
FRONT WILL HAVE STALLED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND A SURFACE WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN US. A LARGE PORTION OF THE
CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTH MONDAY. THE WRENCH
IN THE FORECAST WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A JET STREAK WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE FAR SOUTH INCREASING THE LIFT AND MOISTURE. MODELS
ARE SPITTING OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
RIDGES...MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN TEMPS ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE WILL BECOME CRUCIAL. WILL USE A BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS
HERE AND LEAVE IN CHC/SCHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED WILL LARGELY BE DRY WITH A DECREASING TREND IN
TEMPERATURES AS A BROAD TROUGH IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN SLOWLY SAGS
SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CROSSING SHRTWV IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SUFFICIENT RELATIVE MSTR TO
SPAWN SOME STRATOCU EARLY THIS MRNG. LOW END VFR...MVFR CIGS
FORECAST WL THUS BE RETAINED FOR SVRL HRS WITH DOMINANT VFR
QUICKLY RTNG BY LATE MRNG.

CONDITION DETERIORATION TO GENL MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED AFTR DARK AS
CDFNT DRAWS NR THE REGION.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK WITH...AND IN THE WAKE OF A CDFNT PASSAGE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






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