Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301714
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1214 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL PLAGUE THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND DIMINISH THE
SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE A DRY SATURDAY BEFORE LOW
PRESSURE SPREADS MORE PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR CHGS FOR THE ERLY AFTN UPDT. A GRADUAL DCRS IN SNW SHWR
COVG IS EXPD THRU THE AFTN AS AN UPR TROF EXITS AND THE MOISTURE
DEPTH DCRS. THE EXCEPTION WL BE IN THE RIDGES SE OF PIT WHERE
UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOISTUR IN THE SNW GROWTH RGN WL CONT
ACCUMULATING SNW THRU THE AFTN. WITH COLD ADVCTN...FALLING TEMPS
ARE EXPD THRU THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPDT TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH SUN/MON AFT REVIEW OF 12Z
GUIDANCE AND COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

PREVIOUS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL END IN THE RIDGES THIS EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE THAT BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY SATURDAY.

MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO AGREEMENT FOR ANOTHER SNOW
PRODUCING STORM SUNDAY. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE AREA WILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW. MODEL
DEPICTIONS OF THIS SYSTEM HAVE VARIED GREATLY OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS...SO THERE STILL IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY OF WHAT WILL BE THE
FINAL SOLUTION. FOR NOW WILL LEAN CLOSE TO THE 21Z SREF SOLUTION
AS IT SEEMS TO BE A NICE MIX OF THE 00Z NAM AND GFS. IF THIS
SYSTEM AND ITS TRACK COMES TO FRUITION...HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD...WINTER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE LATE IN
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WITH IFR VSBY IN SNOW SHWRS WL CONT THIS AFTN. GENL
IMPROVEMENT CAN BE ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER AS DRY ADVCTN AND SBSDNC
INCRS.  SFC WIND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO GUST FROM THE W AND NW
AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY.  FURTHER IMPROVEMENTS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES BLDS THROUGH SATURDAY MRNG.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SUNDAY LOW PRES AND
WITH A MONDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR MDZ001.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059.
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-073>076.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ008-009-015-016-023-074-076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR WVZ001>003-023-041.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ023-041.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ023-
     041.

&&

$$

07/15






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