Area Forecast Discussion
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639
FXUS61 KPBZ 310707
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
307 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and seasonably warm weather can then be expected into mid
week. A disturbance will increase rain chances Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Sunshine with only a few cirrus today under high pressure. High
temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees above average, but with dew
points in the 50s it will be a more comfortable afternoon.

Clear skies and light winds tonight will allow temperatures to
fall into the 50s most locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Dry and a bit warmer Wednesday as surface ridge shifts east.
Models remain in overall agreement for a mid level trough and
associated cold front to approach Wednesday night and slowly move
east into the region Thursday. Little change with precipitation
probabilities, which will continue to increase later Wednesday
night and into Thursday. Above average temperatures are
anticipated given the warm, moist advection in advance of the
front.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Little change to previous thinking as model guidance suggests
that the front will lag in complete passage through Friday with
chance pops maintained. While differences in evolution of the
pattern over the weekend into early next week remain, overall
trend of developing and deepening mid and upper level trough
continues in all models, as a series of shortwaves move through
the base of the trough. Will keep shower chances through the
period. Temperatures will trend 5 to 10 degrees below average by
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
General VFR for the forecast period. Exception will be the risk
for pre-dawn fog. Confidence is low on the extent and density of
possible fog, so used yesterday`s obs as a guide. With the
exception of LBE forecast mvfr fog, with lifr possible at LBE. Any
fog that does form will burn off quickly with sunrise.

.OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Restrictions are likely with a late week cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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