Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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524
FXUS61 KPHI 052302
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
602 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT, THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS
THEN EXPECTED TO TRACK OFFSHORE AS IT MOVES NORTH LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE
NEAR THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY NUDGE ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA
FROM THE WEST DURING THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A CLEARING SKY. WINDS WILL ALSO DECREASE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A RELAXING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THIS WILL STAGE FOR FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY THOSE WITH SOME SNOW COVER STILL IN PLACE.
WHERE SNOW IS PRESENT THE FORECAST GOES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THE
MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SETS AND EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
ELSEWHERE THAN GUIDANCE. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20`S
TONIGHT. SOME REFREEZING MAY OCCUR TONIGHT WITH ANY RESIDUAL
MOISTURE RESULTING IN A FEW SLICK SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC TOMORROW. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS
THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER WITH LESS POTENTIAL FOR MIXING
AS WELL, ONLY TOPING OUT AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY FROM A CHILLY MORNING INTO THE
LOWER 40`S FOR MOST, A LITTLE COOLER FURTHER NORTH AND IN AREAS
THAT STILL HAVE SOME SNOW COVER IN THE MORNING. NOT MUCH DEVIATION
FROM MET/MAV GUIDANCE HERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
PUNCTUATED BY A DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...THEN INTO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY BY EARLY
TUESDAY.

WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE FAIRLY BENIGN AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
AT MID- LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
THEN A SURFACE LOW OFF THE GEORGIA COAST IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO CREATE AN INTENSIFYING STORM AS IT MOVES
OVER THE GULF STREAM AND PARALLEL TO THE EAST COAST. CURRENT MODEL
GUIDANCE SEEMS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE EFFECTS OF THIS
STORM JUST OFFSHORE, BUT WE`LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS THE
TREND FOR STORMS SO FAR THIS YEAR SEEMS TO BE FURTHER WEST. IN ANY
CASE, THIS STORM MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME TIDAL
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE`S A NEW MOON ON MONDAY. THEN
LATER MONDAY A DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DIGS FURTHER SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. ENERGY SWINGING AROUND THIS
TROUGH COULD FIRE UP ANOTHER LOW NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY, BUT THE SPECIFICS THIS FAR OUT ARE HARD
TO PINPOINT. CONSEQUENTLY WE WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AND RAIN SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH FOR MONDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN AS A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW
DISSIPATES WHEN THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NUDGE IN FROM THE
WEST...BENIGN WEATHER SHOULD ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO THE AREA FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY, THEN BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TAFS VFR THROUGHOUT. SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH THE DEPARTURE OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. NORTHWEST WIND WILL DECREASE AND BECOME WESTERLY
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THROUGH THE
DAY ON MONDAY AS A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER AT
THE SURFACE MOVES INTO THE REGION. LOWER CIGS AND LOWER VSBYS MAY
OCCUR IN RAIN/SNOW, LASTING FROM LATE-DAY MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR DELAWARE BAY HAS EXPIRED. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS UNTIL 400
AM SATURDAY. NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING.
WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS MAY LINGER ON OUR OCEAN WATERS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SEAS ARE STILL CLOSE TO 6 OR 7 FEET OFF THE
NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTLINES. THIS IS A BIT OVER WHAT
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE ADVERTISES FOR THIS EVENING. WILL LOWER SEAS A
BIT SLOWER TONIGHT THAN WHAT THIS GUIDANCE SHOWS. SEAS SHOULD FALL
TO AROUND 4 FEET BY SUNRISE. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DECREASE ON SATURDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TWO COASTAL STORMS...ONE
POTENTIALLY WELL OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND A
SECOND ONE POTENTIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST LATER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...MAY RESULT IN SCA OR EVEN GALE FORCE WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...GAINES/MIKETTA
MARINE...GAINES/MIKETTA



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