Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago

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FXZS60 NSTU 050051
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
151 PM SST SUN DEC 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SAMOAN
ISLANDS IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A
TROUGH DEVELOPS NEAR THE TERRITORY. LATEST FORECAST SHOW A LOW
LEVEL PRESSURE DEVELOPING FAR SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS WITH THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SAMOAN ISLANDS BY MONDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL FORM TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MIDWEEK. HENCE...EXPECT
AN UPWARD TREND IN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AS
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO BE UNSTABLE DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE
TROUGH...THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY.

LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MONDAY...THEN BECOME NORTHERLY
THEREAFTER AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND RIDGE.

.LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LATEST MODEL DATA SHOW THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. BY THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER TROUGH IS DEPICTED TO FORM
NEAR THE ISLANDS BRINGING AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS. HOWEVER...I WILL
NOT REFLECT THIS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST AS MODEL SKILLS TEND TO
DIMINISH GREATLY BEYOND DAY 3.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WAVE WATCH III MODEL OUTPUT SHOW AN INCREASE IN SEAS MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS WINDS PICK UP. HOWEVER...THIS INCREASE IN
SEAS AND WINDS WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HENCE...WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ADVISORIES FOR MARINERS THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

LUTU-MCMOORE





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