Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago

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000
FXZS60 NSTU 210100
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
200 PM SST MON FEB 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH LINGERING NEAR THE SAMOAN
ISLANDS...PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH. GROWING CUMULI ARE STILL SHOWN
OVER NORTH AND SOUTH SURROUNDING WATERS AS WELL AS OVER MANU`A IN
THE PAST HOURS. CURRENT MODELS FORECAST THE TROUGH TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE SAMOAN ISLANDS THROUGH THE
WEEK. WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH ARE A COUPLED OF EMBEDDED LOWS THAT
ARE SHOWN TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE
WEEK...AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE SAMOAN ISLANDS.
HENCE...WITH THE RELOCATION OF THE TROUGH...THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED. HOWEVER...SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO
THE SAMOAN ISLANDS.

ALTHOUGH THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TODAY...WE ARE CONTINUING THE
WIND ADVISORY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PICK UP TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO THE
TIGHTENING OF PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH ENHANCES AND MOVE CLOSER TO THE SAMOAN ISLANDS WHILE THE
RIDGE TO THE NORTH STRENGTHENS.

.LONG TERM...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CURRENT MODELS SHOW THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH REMAINING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE LONG TERM WHILE THE
RIDGE WEAKENS. HENCE...EXPECT WINDS AND RAINFALL COVERAGE TO
BE LOWER VERSUS TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED THIS PAST WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WAVE WATCH III SOLUTIONS SHOW SEAS BRIEFLY DIMINISHING
TONIGHT THEN REBUILDING TO 7 TO 9 FEET AS ANOTHER LARGE WESTERLY
SWELL REACHES THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS ARE
ALSO FORECAST TO SATISFY ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HENCE...WILL MAINTAIN ADVISORIES FOR SMALL CRAFT
AND HIGH SURFS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL TUESDAY
HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW CANCELLED

&&

$$

LUTU-MCMOORE/MEREDITH





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