Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
916
FXPQ60 PGUM 300543
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
343 PM CHST SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED ISLAND SHOWERS NEAR AND WEST OF GUAM...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SEEN IN THE MARIANAS WATERS...WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS EAST OF THE
MARIANAS WATERS SEEN ON SATELLITE. SEAS ARE ONLY 2-4 FT AT THE
BUOYS WITH MODERATE TRADES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO WINDS...BUT REFRESHED MANY OF THE WAVE
GRIDS TO SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS IN THE LATEST WW3 FROM 00Z.
MADE QUITE A FEW CHANGES TO WEATHER AND SKY COVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE THAN IN RECENT
WEEKS. NOW LOOKING FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LATER TONIGHT WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRYING SUN NIGHT
AND MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS. BUT THEN
MOISTURE RETURNS MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. FROM THURSDAY ON...BACK TO PARTLY
CLOUDY BUT KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST BASED ON ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR MORE THAN JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WHILE FUELS ARE VERY DRY OVER MUCH OF THE ISLAND...SOUTHWEST GUAM
HAD A SOAKING RAIN OF OVER AN INCH LATE THIS MORNING...AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS...ALONG WITH
ONLY MODERATE WINDS...SHOULD PREVENT RED FLAG CONDITIONS FROM
DEVELOPING.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE SHOWS TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN A LARGE AREA FROM NEAR KOSRAE TO JUST SOUTH OF
MAJURO. SPOTTY SHOWERS WERE ALSO OVER SOUTHERN POHNPEI STATE AND
ALONG THE EQUATOR FAR SOUTHEAST OF MAJURO. MODELS INDICATE THE AREA
OF CONVERGENCE AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL SPREAD WEST ACROSS KOSRAE
STATE INTO POHNPEI STATE DURING THE COMING DAYS. SOME OF THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP NORTHWARD UP TO 7N-8N AND PROVIDE
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FOR BOTH LOCATIONS. RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER
WILL PREVAIL FOR MAJURO AND NORTHERN RMI DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AT LEAST...ALTHOUGH SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED FOR THE
SOUTHERN RMI.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CHUUK...A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE CENTERED SOUTH OF CHUUK NEAR 2N152E
ALONG WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS HELPING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN A LARGE AREA OVER CHUUK STATE...ALTHOUGH ONLY A
FEW TRADE-WIND SHOWERS WERE NORTH OF WENO. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS
WETTER THAN PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS AND INDICATES THIS AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER MAY REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN CHUUK STATE FOR NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE VARIABLE FOR THOSE AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF
WENO...BUT THE ISLANDS OF SOUTHERN CHUUK STATE SHOULD RECEIVE PLENTY
RAINFALL THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

YAP AND KOROR...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH RUNNING FROM SOUTHERN PALAU TO
NEAR YAP IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER NEAR YAP THROUGH SUNDAY...AND
NEAR KOROR THROUGH MONDAY AS THE TROUGH EDGES WESTWARD...THEN DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FAR WESTERN MICRONESIA MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/SIMPSON



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.