Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 310136 AAA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1136 AM CHST SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING WEST OF THE MARIANAS AND DIVERGENT FLOW
NORTHEAST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED WEST OF GUAM NEAR
14N141E ARE COMBINING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
NORTH OF GUAM THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 756 AM CHST SUN AUG 31 2014/

MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS
WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SHOWN JUST NORTH AND JUST SOUTH OF
THE COASTAL FORECAST ZONES. THE VAD WIND PROFILE REVEALS SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF 5 TO 8 KNOTS THROUGH THE LOWEST 2 THOUSAND FEET OF THE
AIR.

DISCUSSION...
WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAVING MOVED AWAY AND THE MONSOON TROUGH
NOT ARRIVED YET...THERE WERE NO THUNDERSTORMS LAST NIGHT AND THERE
HAVE NOT BEEN ANY YET THIS MORNING. WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF UP TO
8 KNOTS...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. LEFT THEM IN
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MONSOON TROUGH MUSCLES ITS
WAY IN. SEA HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH THE WEEK.

EASTERN MICRONESIA...
FAIR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER EASTERN MICRONESIA THIS MORNING.
PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. ON MONDAY...A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION TO
MAJURO MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD...BRINGING THESE
CONDITIONS TO KOSRAE MONDAY NIGHT AND POHNPEI TUESDAY. FAIR WEATHER
WILL THEN RETURN TO MAJURO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND SPREAD WESTWARD WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO KOSRAE WEDNESDAY AND POHNPEI
THURSDAY.

LONG PERIOD SOUTHEAST SWELL PRODUCED BY PERSISTENT MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS NEAR FIJI AND SAMOA IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT KOSRAE AND POHNPEI STATES FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS. SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED SURF AND RIP CURRENT RISKS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST FACING SHORES BUT HAZARDOUS SURF IS NOT EXPECTED.

WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A MONSOON TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN MICRONESIA. IT EXTENDS
EASTWARD FROM NEAR 10N130E THROUGH A BROAD CIRCULATION CENTERED WEST
OF CHUUK NEAR 7N144E...THEN CONTINUES EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO END NEAR
5N156E. CONDITIONS REMAIN PLEASANT TODAY NORTH OF THE TROUGH. THIS
INCLUDES BOTH YAP AND CHUUK. UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER KOROR WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MOST OF THE CONVECTION THIS
MORNING IS SOUTH AND WEST OF KOROR AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THE DAY. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE ACTIVITY...DECIDED TO
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR KOROR TODAY. CONVECTION
IS THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY. PERIODS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK...THOUGH TIMING OF THESE
EVENTS IS DIFFICULT AT THE PRESENT TIME. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF YAP THROUGH THE WEEK...THOUGH THE TROUGH DOES DRIFT
CLOSE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THERE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AT CHUUK FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. CHUUK WILL BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION
WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHES THE STATE FROM EASTERN
MICRONESIA.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/KLEESCHULTE/CHAN





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