Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXPQ60 PGUM 301108 AAA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
900 PM CHST TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A TYPHOON WATCH REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR ALAMAGAN AND PAGAN.

&&

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A MONSOON TROUGH LOCATED OVER GUAM
AS TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE REMAINS ABOUT 115 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST
OF SAIPAN...OR ABOUT 240 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF GUAM. THE STORM
CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR
SAIPAN AND TINIAN ARE NO LONGER IN EFFECT. PHANFONE WILL BE CLOSEST
TO THE ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT...PASSING ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH OF
SAIPAN. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TYPHOON ON WEDNESDAY WHEN
IT SHOULD BE TRACKING SOUTH OF ALAMAGAN AND PAGAN...FOR WHICH A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A TYPHOON WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT. ONCE
PHANFONE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...EXPECT AN OVERALL SYNOPTIC FLOW
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP WET CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND BECOME LIGHTER ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PHANFONE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN...AND IS STILL EXPECTED
TO BECOME A TYPHOON BY TOMORROW AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST...PASSING
OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST
FORECAST FROM THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM
TO INTENSIFY TO A TYPHOON JUST AFTER IT PASSES WEST OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN. SAIPAN AND TINIAN ARE NO LONGER UNDER A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING. HOWEVER...ALAMAGAN AND PAGAN REMAIN UNDER A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND A TYPHOON WATCH. THE MONSOON TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT
NORTHWARD TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN MARIANAS.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS
PHANFONE CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWEST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. BREEZY
AND CONVERGENT SOUTHWEST MONSOON WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL UNTIL
FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
LIGHTER SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...AND FEWER SHOWERS...ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
COMBINED SEAS WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 7 FOOT RANGE IN THE SHORT
TERM...MAINLY FROM NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL FROM KAMMURI. EXPECT
INCREASING SHORT-PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELLS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH COMBINED SEAS INCREASING...TO NEAR 10 FEET IN GUAM
WATERS...AND TO NEAR 14 FEET IN SAIPAN WATERS...WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SAIPAN AND TINIAN WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
SHORT-PERIOD NORTHEAST SWELLS TODAY THAT DIMINISH TONIGHT...WITH
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DRIVING UP THE SHORT
PERIOD WAVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE JUST EAST OF MAJURO THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
SLOWLY BUT STEADILY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEK...
PASSING WELL NORTH OF KOSRAE AND POHNPEI FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS EAST OF THE
DISTURBANCE. FOR MAJURO...UNSETTLED WEATHER APPEARS MOST LIKELY ON
WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY EXTENDING INTO SATURDAY. KOSRAE AND POHNPEI
WILL REMAIN SEPARATED FROM THE MAIN IMPACTS OF THE DISTURBANCE.


&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CONSIDERABLE CONVERGENCE IN THE RELATIVELY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS KEEPING A BAND OF OVERCAST CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOUDY AND RATHER WET DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR KOROR AND YAP...AND LESS SO FOR CHUUK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
INCLUDING PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN.

TYPHOON WATCH FOR THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS INCLUDING PAGAN
AND ALAMAGAN.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR SAIPAN.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN WATERS
THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY.

&&

$$

REYNES






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