Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 060622
AFDPQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
417 PM ChST Tue Dec 6 2016

.Synopsis...
Satellite shows patchy clouds and just a few light showers nearby
and upstream. Radar shows very isolated light showers over the
coverage area. VAD gradient winds are from east at 15 to 20 kt.
Buoys show combined seas of 6 to 7 feet across the Marianas.

&&

.Discussion...
Mostly cloudy skies were pushed ahead to Wednesday through Thursday
night. The GFS still indicates a little deeper mositure along with
some cloudiness and a few showers early Wednesday and again Thursday
through Thursday night. Otherwise, pleasant trade-wind weather is
expected this week. The area of disturbed weather just southeast of
Koror is poorly organized today, but will be monitored in the coming
days. Only minor changes were made to the forecasts and gridded
data.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
Showers and thunderstorms persist this evening near Pohnpei and
Chuuk. Drier weather at Majuro is building in towards Kosrae pushing
isolated convection there to the southwest. Drier weather will build
in at Pohnpei tomorrow and Thursday, and Chuuk by the weekend. A
weak trade-wind trough could bring a few more showers across the
region late in the week. Otherwise, no significant weather features
are expected the next several days.

Winds and seas continue a slow decline across the region. High surf
and small craft advisories have been dropped at Pohnpei, but surf
advisories remain in place at Chuuk and Kosrae. Based on 00Z ASCAT
pass, winds will remain hazardous to small craft through tonight.
Based on latest trends, the remaining advisories should be able to
be dropped early Wednesday.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
Reasoning for the Chuuk forecast can be found under the Eastern
Micronesia discussion above.

A near-equatorial trough and disturbance centered near 4N139E will
keep unsettled weather across Yap and Koror the next several days.
The trough and disturbance will generally move northwestward. GFS
and ECMWF show two different scenarios with GFS depicting a tropical
cyclone developing while ECMWF does not. For now, have not made much
change in the long-term forecast as the long-term scenarios remain
uncertain, and thus have kept with just isolated showers and
thunderstorms through the weekend.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

Simpson/M. Aydlett



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