Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 201810
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
410 AM CHST TUE OCT 21 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW PATCHY AREAS
OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. VAD GRADIENT WINDS ARE NE/10-15 KT.
LOCAL BUOYS SHOWS COMBINED SEAS 3 TO 4 FT FROM NE TO ENE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SHEAR-LINE WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS AND CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS MODEL IN
PARTICULAR INDICATES THAT SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE COULD ARRIVE
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY AS A WEAK TRADE-WIND TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH SHORES WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLY HAZARDOUS SURF
IN THE COMING DAYS. ADJUSTED NORTH SWELL GRIDS SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SINCE WW3 MODEL INDICATES THAT NORTH SWELLS OF 3 TO 6 FEET WILL
ARRIVE ACROSS THE AREA BY TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WIND GRIDS WERE REFRESHED WITH LATEST GFS DATA.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A WEAK CIRCULATION IS STILL EVIDENT IN THE MODELS AND THE 12Z ASCAT
ANALYSIS CENTERED NORTHEAST OF KOSRAE. IR SATELLITE SHOWS FAIRLY DRY
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION EXCEPT NEAR THE CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED
TROUGH. THERE IS ENOUGH FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM TO PRODUCE A SMALL
SWATH OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FORM SOUTH AND EAST OF KOSRAE TO NEAR
KWAJALEIN ATOLL. MODELS MAINTAIN A DRY BIAS THROUGH MIDWEEK...
GENERALLY WASHING OUT THE CIRCULATION INTO AN OPEN INVERTED TROUGH
AS IT HEADS SOUTHWEST. IN THE MEANTIME..ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY AT MAJURO AND KOSRAE...CONTINUING THROUGH
THURSDAY AT KOSRAE. EASTERLY TRADES WILL BUILD IN AT MAJURO ON
THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TRADES WILL
BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS KOSRAE AND POHNPEI ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

KALO BUOY SHOWS COMBINED SEAS BETWEEN 4 AND 5 FEET. PART OF THIS
COMES FROM A SOUTH WELL AT ABOUT 8 TO 10 SECONDS. MOST OF THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHEAST WINDS. TIDES WILL INCREASE WITH THE
UPCOMING NEW MOON PHASE THIS WEEKEND...BUT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY BENIGN.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE INHERITED FORECAST. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE SEEN NORTHEAST OF YAP WITHIN THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT STRETCHES
EAST TO WEST JUST NORTH OF YAP AND KOROR. MODELS STILL SHOW THIS
TROUGH MEANDERING IN THE AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS SO ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT YAP FOR TODAY. OTHERWISE...TRANQUIL
WEATHER WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED AT THE THREE FORECAST
LOCATIONS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A TRADE-WIND TROUGH FROM THE EAST WILL
APPROACH CHUUK ON FRIDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SIMPSON/M. AYDLETT





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