Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 161900
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
500 AM CHST WED SEP 17 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
RADAR SHOWS AREAS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE COVERAGE AREA. SATELLITE SHOWS AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
FORECAST ZONES. ASCAT ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED
WITH INVEST AREA 96W IS NEAR 12N137E AND DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST.
VAD GRADIENT WINDS ARE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KT. LOCAL BUOYS
SHOW COMBINED SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FEET WITH MIXED DIRECTIONAL COMPONENTS
FROM SOUTHWEST...EAST-NORTHEAST AND SOUTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE WET MONSOON-TYPE WEATHER WILL PERSIST TODAY AS INVEST AREA 96W
GRADUALLY DEVELOPS AND DRIFTS AWAY WESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD.
RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY TODAY FOR SOME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY NEAR
ROTA THIS MORNING. MOST MODELS INDICATE RELATIVELY DRIER WEATHER
WILL ARRIVE BY TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT WIND REGIME DEVELOPING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SEA CONDITIONS WILL BE MIXED NEXT FEW DAYS WITH MODERATE RIP CURRENT
RISK ALONG MOST REEFS. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO WAVE GRIDS BASED ON
THE WW3 WAVE MODEL WHICH INDICATES SEVERAL DIFFERENT SMALLISH SWELL
COMPONENTS WILL AFFECT SEA CONDITIONS BESIDES THE BASIC E-NE AND SW
SWELLS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST. REFRESHED WIND GRIDS WITH LATEST GFS
MODEL DATA.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...WILL BE SENT LATER.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...WILL BE SENT LATER.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SIMPSON




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