Area Forecast Discussion
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
424 PM CHST THU MAY 26 2016

.Synopsis...
Gentle trades and isolated showers are seen across the Marianas
this afternoon. Combined seas are running around 3 ft at the
buoys.

&&

.Discussion...
Over the next few days the models are showing slowly decreasing
winds and seas...and a slow decrease in atmospheric moisture.
Previous forecast had this well in hand...so stayed with partly
cloudy and isolated showers...then slight chance of showers by
Monday. Light winds Sun-Tue may result in island showers for Guam
on those days...if there is enough moisture. Left those out of the
forecast for now as there is still lots of uncertainty about that.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Fuels remain tinder-dry with the KBDI extreme at 788...but light
winds will continue to inhibit red flag conditions.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
A trade-wind disturbance continues to generate showers and
thunderstorms near Kosrae and just south of Pohnpei. Farther
east...a surface trough just east of Majuro is producing showers
primarily north of 7N. Neither of these weather features are
expected to bring much rainfall to the 3 forecast points the next
couple days. The disturbance near Kosrae will continue west...but
pass just south of Pohnpei. The surface trough near Majuro will
continue west the next couple days. This feature will bring spotty
but much needed rain to central and northern islands of the
Marshall Islands tonight and early Friday. In the long-term...GFS
shows a trade-wind convergence zone developing from east to west
along 5 to 7N that could bring some showers late in the weekend.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
A benign weather pattern remains in place across the region. Fair
weather is seen from Koror to Chuuk. A weak disturbance southeast of
Yap and Koror near 140E could bring an uptick in clouds and showers
Friday and Friday night to both locations...and lingering into
Saturday at Koror. Weak ridging next week will keep winds light and
weather pleasant at Yap and Koror. However...should there be enough
atmospheric moisture...Koror could see some brief island
thunderstorms. Expect pleasant conditions at Chuuk through Friday
night. A passing surface trough could bring isolated showers and
thunderstorms to Weno on Saturday.

&&

.GUM Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
GU...None.
Marianas Waters...None.

&&

$$

Middlebrooke/M. Aydlett



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