Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 200638
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
438 PM CHST SAT DEC 20 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FOUND OVER THE
MARIANAS WATERS. SATELLITE SHOWS A SHEAR LINE ACROSS PAGAN AND
AGRIHAN ISLANDS...BUT NOT MAKING ANY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. SEAS ARE
RUNNING 9-10 FEET AT THE IPAN BUOY AND NEAR 12 FEET AT RITIDIAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO IMPORTANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. BREEZY CONDITIONS
AND ISOLATED TRADE-WIND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...POSSIBLY UNTIL TUESDAY IF THE LATEST GFS IS CORRECT.

&&

.MARINE...
BASED ON BUOYS...BOOSTED TOTAL SEAS AND NORTH SWELL A FOOT OR SO
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH NOON ON SUNDAY. ALSO EXTENDED THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY THROUGH NOON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST
IS THE SAME AS PREVIOUS...WITH 10-FOOT OR HIGHER SEAS AND WINDS
NEAR OR ABOVE 22 KT INTO MID-WEEK.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED NEAR POHNPEI AND KOSRAE THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT COVERAGE REMAINS GENERALLY ISOLATED WHILE MAJURO REMAINS DRY.
THE LATEST MODEL RUN INDICATES INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS MOVING OVER POHNPEI A
BIT EARLIER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE GFS40 DOES NOT
INITIALIZE WELL WITH THE CURRENT PRECIP FOOTPRINT SO CHOSE TO
MAINTAIN THE INHERITED FORECAST WITH ONLY MINOR SHORT TERM
CHANGES. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND THE ADDITION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDER WORDING FOR SUNDAY AT POHNPEI AND REDUCING NEAR
TERM THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR MAJURO FROM ISOLATED TO SLIGHT
CHANCE. OTHERWISE...THE OVERALL FORECAST AND REASONING FOR ALL
THREE FORECAST POINTS REMAINS UNCHANGED.

INCREASING SWELL AND WIND WAVES ARE STILL EXPECTED FROM POHNPEI
TO MAJURO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
RIP CURRENTS AND SURF HEIGHTS...ESPECIALLY ON EASTERN SHORELINES
AND REEFS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT
BY MONDAY FOR MAJURO AND POHNPEI AND BY TUESDAY FOR KOSRAE. AS
THE SEAS INCREASE...HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP SUNDAY OR MONDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS LIKELY FOR
ALL THREE FORECAST POINTS EARLY IN THE WEEK AND A HIGH SURF
WARNING IS EVEN A POSSIBILITY FOR MAJURO. AS HIGH SURF CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT MAJURO IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SPRING HIGH
TIDE CYCLE...COASTAL INUNDATIONS ARE LIKELY ON MAJURO AND NEARBY
ATOLLS. RESIDENTS OF POHNPEI AND KOSRAE SHOULD ALSO REMAIN ALERT
TO THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON CHUUK FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON MONDAY...THE TRADE-WIND SURGE AFFECTING
MOST OF EASTERN MICRONESIA IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING
SHOWERS TO CHUUK. SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ISOLATED...BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ENTER THE PICTURE.
THIS INCREASED CONVECTION WILL STICK AROUND A COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH FAIR WEATHER RETURNING TO WENO BY MIDWEEK. FOR
YAP...A SERIES OF WEAK TRADE- WIND DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION NEAR 8N WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS TO YAP THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND TO KOROR BY SUNDAY EVENING.
MAINTAINED THE INHERITED FORECAST FOR YAP CALLING FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT SHORT PERIODS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THERE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF JAPAN WILL HELP MAINTAIN FASTER
TRADE WINDS OVER WESTERN MICRONESIA THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...THOUGH THE WINDS ARE A BIT LIGHTER TODAY THAN EXPECTED. A
DRIER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO BOTH LOCATIONS BY MIDWEEK.

HAZARDOUS SURF WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU AND YAP
STATE THRU TONIGHT AS RESIDUAL NORTH SWELL LINGERS IN THE REGION.
BUILDING TRADE-WIND SWELL AND WIND WAVES WILL HELP SEAS REMAIN
HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CHST SUNDAY FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CHST WEDNESDAY
     FOR PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/KLEESCHULTE







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