Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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991
FXUS65 KPSR 221230
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
530 AM MST FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION TODAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY WILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS FROM SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARIZONA. DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL THEN TAKE OVER THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW SWING THROUGH
ARIZONA INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH THE MAJORITY OF OUR CWA
STAYING DRY...BUT WITH CONTINUED BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW CENTER RIGHT OVER LOS ANGELES WITH
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND MAINLY ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. A 110 KT UPPER JET MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY WITH A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST ARIZONA BY 18Z AND INTO NORTHEAST ARIZONA BY
00Z SATURDAY. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THIS MORNING WILL
ALLOW FOR A NARROW BAND OF MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO MOVE
INTO ARIZONA AHEAD OF A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEST
CHANCES...ALBEIT STILL ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE...FOR ANY SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
FROM JTNP EASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN MARICOPA COUNTY AS A STRONG PV
ANOMALY LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA.

THE LOW CENTER WILL REACH INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SATURDAY WITH
INCREASINGLY SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TAKING OVER ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL HOWEVER STILL REMAIN SPREAD OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST KEEPING RELATIVELY COOL AIR IN PLACE. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL IMPROVE OVER FRIDAY/S MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S...BUT
ONLY BY A COUPLE DEGREES. A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THEN SHOWN TO
QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...ONLY SINGLE DIGITS POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL START TO GET A BOOST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT WE WILL STILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES SHY OF NORMAL.

NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE MORE ON THE QUIET SIDE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON. QUASI-ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING UPPER HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
REACH NEAR NORMALS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND POSSIBLY NEARING
100 DEGREES IN A FEW LOWER DESERT SPOTS FOR NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MOJAVE DESERT TODAY. MAIN
AVIATION WEATHER IMPACT ACROSS THE PHOENIX METRO AREA WILL BE A
CONTINUATION OF THE BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
5-10 KT CROSSWINDS AT KPHX. WINDS WILL VEER THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE
WILL ALSO RESULT IN FEW-SCT STRATOCU THOUGH BASES WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ABOVE 6K FT.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CA...MAINLY AT KIPL
WHERE GUSTS WILL LIKELY REACH 30-35 KT THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ALSO IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM KBLH NORTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AS WINDS SUBSIDE
AFTER SUNSET.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SEVERAL WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DISTRICT
NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER DRY WEATHER WILL STILL PREVAIL. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL ALSO GRACE THE REGION BRINGING TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL NORMAL. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
LIGHT FOLLOWING TYPICAL DAILY PATTERNS LEADING TO MINIMAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...MO



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