Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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FXUS65 KPSR 252132
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
232 PM MST SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF EXITING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER WELL-ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURE DAY OVER THE SOUTHWEST
DESERTS. A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
MAKE A RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS HAS TRANSITIONED FURTHER TO OUR EAST TODAY AS
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE WEST COAST. TROUGHING
STRETCHING DOWN THROUGH NORTHERN BAJA WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST
STATES...KEEPING SOME AREAS OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE
STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EARLIER CU FIELDS HAVE THINNED AND
DISSIPATED OVER THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS WHILE PICKING UP
CONSIDERABLY IN THE COVERAGE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA...CLOSER TO THE
WEAK NORTHERLY JET STREAK AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH BODY. EVEN WITH
DECREASING RIDGE HEIGHTS...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO READINGS ON
PAR WITH THOSE AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. SOME FORECAST LOCATIONS COULD
PUSH NEAR THEIR RECORDS FOR THE DAY...PHOENIX`S RECORD AT 96F AND
YUMA`S RECORD AT 100F. GIVEN THE QUICK DISSIPATION AND VERY LOW
TOPPED NATURE OF CU TODAY...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME
LIMITED AMOUNTS OF VIRGA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. ANY
PRECIPITATION OF INTEREST SHOULD STAY WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN AZ.

UPPER LOW FEATURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN STATES
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY WILL INCREASE THE USUAL AFTERNOON
WESTERLY BREEZES A BIT ACROSS SE CA AND SW AZ. HOWEVER SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY AOB 10 KTS. A SLOW
DRYING/CLEARING TREND WILL TRANSITION INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AS THE
MAIN MOISTURE PLUME MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH DRIER AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

ALTHOUGH A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO
TUESDAY AS THE LONG-WAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROF SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...IT STILL APPEARS THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL AROUND OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. GREATEST AMOUNT OF COOLING OCCURS
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE 850MB TEMPERATURES STABILIZE. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL ABOUT 4-5C FROM TODAY/S
READINGS...WITH EVEN LESS COOLING INDICATED AT 700 AND 500MB.

AS FAR AS THE FORECAST OF THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK IS
CONCERNED...THE GFS IS NOW COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE EURO
ON THE IDEA OF A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION...BUT IT IS STILL NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS
THE EURO IS ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE UPCOMING WARMING TREND. WHILE THE
EURO CONTINUES TO PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...THE GFS STILL
HOLDS HIGHS BACK DOWN IN THE UPPER 80S DUE TO ITS FORECAST OF
SOMEWHAT LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS. AT THIS POINT STILL GIVING THE NOD TO
THE BETTER-PERFORMING EURO WITH MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS SEEING AT
LEAST 90F ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITUATED WELL OUR NORTHWEST WILL BRING SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUD DECKS TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL CIGS FROM 9-12K FEET.
MID LAYER CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS LIKELY MOVING IN. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES

DATE         PHOENIX
----         -------
SAT OCT 25   96 IN 1990

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE
WEEK...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL
CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 90 BY THURSDAY ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT
RANGE EACH DAY ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE/PERCHA
AVIATION....KUHLMAN
CLIMATE...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN





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