Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 271049

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
449 AM MDT Thu Oct 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 449 AM MDT Thu Oct 27 2016

An upper level ridge will be over the state today and will keep the
weather dry and warm.  High temps today will be well above average,
with upper 70s to lower 80s along the I-25 corridor, lower to mid
80s across the southeast plains and upper 60s in the high valleys.
The record high at Alamosa today is 69, at Colo Spgs is 79, and at
Pueblo is 87. Surface winds this afternoon over the far southeast
plains will likely be gusty from the south-southwest. It looks like
RH values ovr the far southeast plains will stay above 15 percent
this afternoon, and thus should not require a fire wx highlight.

Tonight a weak upper level disturbance will move over northern
portions of CO.  The weather is expected to remain dry across
southeast and south central CO overnight, but there should be an
increase in some high level clouds.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 449 AM MDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Primary longer term meteorological challenges include the potential
for near critical to critical fire weather conditions on Monday, gusty
winds and pops at times and temperatures.

Latest longer term PV analysis, computer simulations and forecast
model soundings indicate that a continued warm and relatively dry
southwesterly to zonal upper flow pattern will prevail over the
majority of the forecast district into Tuesday evening(outside of
the western mountains Monday, where some precipitation will be
possible) in advance of a system impacting the CWFA from
Wednesday into Thursday.

Near critical to critical fire weather conditions will be
possible on Monday due to well above seasonal temperatures,
projected low minimum relative humidity levels, increasing winds
and existing dry conditions(primarily over portions of the eastern
mountains/foothills, Interstate 25 corridor and southeastern
Colorado plains). WFO will monitor closely and issue fire weather
highlights if/as needed.

In addition to the previously addressed fire weather concerns,
have depicted cooler temperatures and increased pops from
Wednesday into next Thursday as an upper system impacts the
forecast district. As always, WFO Pueblo will closely monitor the
the development, strength and track of this potential incoming system.

Maximum and minimum temperatures are projected to run above
climatological averages over the majority of the forecast district
into at least Tuesday morning with cooler temperatures then
anticipated from Tuesday into next Thursday. Warmest maximum
temperatures should be noted Friday with coolest temperatures
projected Wednesday and next Thursday. Also, the highest potential
for gusty winds during the longer term are expected Friday night,
from later Sunday into Monday and then again by Wednesday


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 449 AM MDT Thu Oct 27 2016

With an upper level ridge being over the area, VFR conditions are
expected today and tonight, with mainly just some high level clouds.
Winds will be diurnally driven.





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