Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 031000
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
400 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

CURRENTLY...

POTENT BUT MOISTURE STARVED SHORT WAVE WAS LOCATED OVER THE CO/KS/NE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS WERE NOTED OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND A FEW SHOWERS WERE LIKELY OCCURRING....WITH MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY AT 3 AM EAST OF THE LONGITUDE OF KLHX.
OTHERWISE..SKIES WERE CLEAR OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION AND
TEMPS WERE RELATIVELY MILD.

TODAY...

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS THAT ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH
DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS. WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30+ MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.

OVERALL TEMPS WILL NOT BE TOO BAD...WITH HIGHS MAXING OUT BETWEEN 65
AND 70F MOST OF THE PLAINS...WITH COOLER TEMPS IN EL PASO COUNTY. IN
THE VALLEYS HIGHS WITH BE ABOUT 60....WITH 40S AND 50S IN THE MTNS.
EXCEPT FOR SOME ISOLD -TSRA IN THE MTNS...IT WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY
DRY.

TONIGHT...

CLEAR AND DRY WITH LOWS M/U30S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND 20S VALLEYS.
WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE GIVING WAY TO A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW. MANY DETAILS WILL
NEED TO BE WORKED OUT BUT THE FORECAST LOOKS TO TURN COOLER WITH
BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM. EXPECT WARMER CONDITIONS BOTH
DAYS WITH 70S ON WEDNESDAY...AND 80S ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS. MODELS ARE DEVELOPING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BOTH DAYS WITH
LIGHTNING BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE EAST WHILE
THE STORM OFF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND INTO COLORADO. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE STORM
WILL BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO COLORADO ON FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY...A DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO ROTATE NORTHWARD AROUND
THE MAIN LOW ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE
DRYLINE DEVELOPS...WITH THE LATEST SOLUTIONS IN WESTERN KANSAS.
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. SNOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN HIGH...WITH A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE 10
KFT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH UPPER
70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS COLORADO SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF
THE SOUTHERN COLORADO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS
LIKELY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN HIGH
BUT WILL LOWER TO NEAR 8 KFT WITH THE STORM SYSTEM OVERHEAD.
MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KCOS AND KPUB. WINDS WILL
DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT KALS. VFR
EXPECTED AT THE 3 TAF SITES NEXT 24H.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH



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