Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KRAH 251507
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1107 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
OFFSHORE THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM MONDAY...

A PRONOUNCED SFC RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION SHIFTS SLOWLY
EAST TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW /AIRMASS
DESTABILIZATION/ WILL BE CONFINED TO LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFT/EVE. TONIGHT...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
/WARM ADVECTION/ AND AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DPVA ATTENDANT
SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES IN NEWLY ESTABLISHED SW FLOW ALOFT MAY ALLOW
ELEVATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE FOOTHILLS AND
PERHAPS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH OVERALL CHANCES
WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG/WEST OF I-77. EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS
THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S...WARMEST IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...

FORMIDABLE MID-UPPER LEVEL UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS MORE SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS
RETURN ON TUESDAY OWING TO THE RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE/HUMIDITY...AND SUBSEQUENT STRONGER DESTABILIZATION
INSTABILITY ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING SFC RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE.

THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND
FTHLS...FUELED BY AN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. HOWEVER THE THE POTENTIAL
FOR WEAK SUPPORT ALOFT IN THE FORM OF WEAK DPVA ATTENDANT TO A
SHEARED SHORTWAVE ENERGY JUSTIFIES SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT...AND QUITE POSSIBLY INTO THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT
COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON...IF THE OVER-ZEALOUS GFS IS TO BE
BELIEVED. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST OF US 1.

WHILE IT FEEL WARMER DUE TO RISING HUMIDITY...TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY. HIGHS 83-87...WARMEST ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM MONDAY...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: NOT MANY CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM AS AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. RETURN FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM THAT WILL STAGNATE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. MODELS ARE WAVERING WITH JUST HOW FAR EAST
PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT WITH THE FAVORED SOLUTIONS CENTERING
AROUND THE ENSEMBLES AND A NOD TO THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION
WHICH HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE GFS IS A WET
OUTLIER...DUE TO FURTHER EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND ANY LACK OF FORCING OR JET SUPPORT...WHICH WILL BE
WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THEREFORE HAVE BEEN HESITANT TO REALLY
UP THE POPS AND QPF FORECASTS TOO MUCH. THAT BEING SAID...THE BEST
POPS WILL BE IN THE WEST EACH DAY WITH WED...THU...AND FRI...ALL
HAVING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST IN THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SOME CONVECTION
LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR THE WEEKEND THE SURFACE HIGH
BEGINS TO REALLY BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA AND THUS A DECREASING
CHANCE FOR RAIN. HAVE BACKED THE FORECAST OFF TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE NORTHWEST WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FURTHER EAST.

MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND APPROACHING 90
DEGREES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. LOWS CONSISTENTLY IN THE MID 60S
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1100 AM MONDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MIDNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
THE INT/GSO TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING...06-15Z TUE...
IN ASSOC/W THE ONSET OF A MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW /WARM
ADVECTION/. ANY LOW CEILINGS THAT DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WILL LIFT TO
HIGH-END MVFR OR VFR BY LATE TUE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AHEAD: CHANCES FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS
(MVFR/IFR CEILINGS) AND SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL INCREASE THROUGH
MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ADVECTS AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS INTO THE CAROLINAS. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...VINCENT



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.