Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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FXUS65 KRIW 062015
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
215 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

SMALL BREAK IN THE WEATHER TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS
FORECAST AREA. A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE FAR WEST.
OTHERWISE...GENERALLY DRY AND A LITTLE HUMID TONIGHT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO PATCHY LOW CLOUDS OR FOG...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE.
THIS SHOULD NOT BE HIGH IMPACT AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

FOR TUESDAY...WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH ESTABLISHES OR MOVES OVER
WYOMING. WITH LIFT AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS CURRENTLY
INDICATING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
EITHER WAY...INSTABILITY OVER WEST CENTRAL WYOMING ON TUESDAY
LEADING TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER GOING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

CONTINUED COOLER AND UNSETTLED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT RAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS
WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD EASILY FALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
FAIRLY HIGH PW AIR OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH WILL INTERACT WITH OUR
COLD FRONT AND A COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING IN FROM THE WEST TO
PRODUCE QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THAT BEGIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CARRY OVER INTO MY PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WEST AND SOUTH. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND BE A FOCUS FOR MORE CONVECTION
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MORE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK
MOVING ACROSS MONTANA. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH IT...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL
AND WRN SECTIONS. ON THURSDAY...THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST WILL
MOVE ONSHORE WITH AN APPROACHING JET STREAK AND SHORTWAVE MOVING
TOWARDS SWRN WYO BY THURSDAY EVENING WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
THE ODDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALSO INCREASING FURTHER NWD THURSDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE ALONG THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT OPENS UP AND PASSES
ACROSS WRN WYO OR ERN IDAHO ON FRIDAY. THE NW WILL LIKELY SEE THE
HIGHEST PCPN CHANCES THEN. THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER...IF NOT HOT...AND GENERALLY DRY AS
HEIGHTS REBUILD AS THE MONSOONAL HIGH NUDGES TOWARDS THE 4-CORNERS.
SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAST AND HOW FAR NORTH THIS UPPER HIGH WILL
BUILD WITH THE GFS KEEPING IT TO THE SOUTH WITH SOME MONSOONAL
MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD ALREADY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF
BUILDS THE HIGH MORE OVER THE STATE FOR A DRY AND HOT MONDAY. WILL
LIKELY KEEP SOME ISOLD POPS IN YET...ESPECIALLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SURFACE WIND TO PREVAIL THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS BEING SAID...CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER MOST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS ARE EVEN POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AT LOCATIONS FROM KCPR TO KLND.
OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING WITH MORE SUNSHINE ON
TUESDAY. WITH THIS AFTERNOON HEATING...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WITH HIGH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WYOMING. OVERALL...THE AIRMASS WILL BE
STABLE WITH LIGHT SURFACE WIND. THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY
POOR SMOKE DISPERSAL THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES OVER
WEST CENTRAL WYOMING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY SURFACE WIND IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING INTO TUESDAY EVENING. EVEN A
BETTER CHANCE FOR WETTING RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS LATER WEDNESDAY
BOTH EAST AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE...AS THE COOL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONTINUES.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KPL
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...KPL
FIRE WEATHER...KPL


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