Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 050304
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
800 PM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM IS CROSSING CALIFORNIA
AND WILL CONTINUE THE DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW AND DEEP MARINE LAYER.
ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY. THE TROUGH
WILL WEAKEN AS ENERGY LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SLOWLY BUILD WESTWARD. THIS WILL BRING A
WARMING TREND AND DECREASING LOW MARINE CLOUDS FROM SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK. MARGINAL MID LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY ALONG THE MEXICO BORDER.


&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

DEEP MARINE LAYER OBSERVED THIS EVENING AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS
CROSSING OVER CALIFORNIA. TODAY HAD NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO A COUPLE
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THE COAST AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR ALL INLAND VALLEYS...MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. MARINE CLOUDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY FILL BACK INTO THE COAST...INLAND VALLEYS AND INLAND
EMPIRE WITH TOPS AROUND 3000 FEET. ON SATELLITE...TROPICAL STORM
KEVIN IS GETTING SHEARED AND PULLED NORTHWARD INTO THE ELONGATED
UPPER TROUGH. MODELS PICK UP THE REMNANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE
(PRECIPITABLE WATER) AND DRAW IT ACROSS THE BAJA AND INTO FAR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS TO
BE MARGINAL (AROUND 1 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND CAPE INTO IMPERIAL
COUNTY) FOR MOIST CONVECTION BUT ISOLATED CELL COULD FORM NEAR THE
BORDER FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY. ANY CELL WOULD GET PUSHED INTO IMPERIAL
COUNTY DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW.

THE AIR MASS WILL NOTABLY WARM SUNDAY AND THEN GRADUAL INTO NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER HEIGHTS RELAX AND THEN BUILD OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LEADING TO A WARMING TREND. THIS WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL STARTING TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY...WHILE THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH LOWERS NOTABLY
STARTING SUNDAY AND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

050300Z...COAST/VALLEYS...PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS ARE FORMING ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH BASES 2000-2500 FT MSL AND TOPS TO 3500
FT MSL. LOW CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD INLAND
OVERNIGHT...REACHING KONT BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE IS HIGH BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS ONLY MODERATE. EXPECT
AREAS OF VIS 3-5SM WHERE CLOUDS AND TERRAIN INTERSECT. CLEARING TO
THE COAST LIKELY BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z SAT.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA FL150 AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

800 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...

800 PM...A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING...PEAKING SUNDAY MORNING
AT 3 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 20 SEC. SURF WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FEET BY
LATE SATURDAY...WITH SOME SETS TO 7 FEET ALONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FACING BEACHES BY SUN MORNING. THE SURF WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A MIX OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH SWELLS. STRONG RIP AND
LONGSHORE CURRENTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HIGHER SURF...CREATING
DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A BEACH
HAZARD STATEMENT WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM MID MORNING ON SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TARDY
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...PG


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