Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 250426
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND THIS WEEKEND WITH COOLER
CONDITIONS...GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...AND
THE MARINE LAYER RETURNING. THE MARINE LAYER MAY DEEPEN ENOUGH FOR
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD ACROSS THE WEST WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SKIES WERE CLEAR OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH MARINE LAYER LOW
CLOUDS WEST OF SAN CLEMENTE AND CATALINA ISLANDS. THESE CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARDS THE COAST TONIGHT. RECENT AIRCRAFT
SOUNDINGS FROM COASTAL AIRPORTS INDICATE A VERY SHALLOW MARINE
LAYER...AROUND 300 FT OR SO. DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS MOVE IN. THE MARINE LAYER WILL
DEEPEN SLIGHTLY BY MORNING...WITH DENSE FOG SPREADING INTO THE
HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN AND COASTAL MESAS.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
ON SATURDAY...BRINGING STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION. MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING A SHALLOW LAYER OF
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE. THIS WILL JUST BRING A FEW
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH SOME
CU DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES IN THE AFTERNOON. THE COOLING
TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE WEST COAST. THE MARINE LAYER WILL ALSO
DEEPEN QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO
THIS TROUGH...PUSHING WELL INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS AND POTENTIALLY
PRODUCING SOME DRIZZLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WEST
WINDS TO DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE WEST COAST FOR MONDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...BRINGING GRADUAL WARMING AND DRY
CONDITIONS. WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY TUESDAY...BUT WILL
LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE FAVORED CANYONS AND PASSES. HIGH TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. UNCERTAINTY
STILL LINGERS TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE GFS IS QUICKER TO BRING IN A TROUGH
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE EC IS SLOWER AND KEEPS A STRONG
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND MAINTAINS OFFSHORE FLOW INTO SATURDAY.
OVERALL TEMPS WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON HALLOWEEN
BEFORE MODERATING OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
250400Z...COAST...LOW CLOUDS...WITH BASES AROUND 400 FT MSL AND TOPS
NEAR 800 FT MSL...WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AND A FEW MILES
INLAND TONIGHT. VIS AT OR BELOW 1SM DUE TO BR/FG WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE LOW CLOUDS NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN.
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE MAY HELP RAISE CEILINGS A FEW HUNDRED FEET
BY MID-SATURDAY MORNING. STRATUS WILL CLEAR TOWARDS THE COAST BY
LATE SATURDAY MORNING...THEN REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATE SATURDAY
EVENING...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOPS AND BASES.

VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...FEW/SCT CLOUDS AOA 6000 FT
MSL...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SAT
EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
900 PM...PATCHY DENSE FOG...WITH VISIBILITY OF ONE MILE OR LESS...IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AT TIMES TONIGHT. BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS NEAR 20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE
SATURDAY INTO LATE SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
900 PM...AN ELEVATED NW...MID-PERIOD SWELL WILL CREATE ABOVE NORMAL
SURF OF 3-5 FEET...WITH SETS TO 7 FEET...ALONG WESTERLY FACING
BEACHES SUNDAY. HIGHEST SETS WILL BE ON BEACHES IN NORTHERN ORANGE
COUNTY AND SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR
ELEVATED SURF AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENT REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SS
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...JJT





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