Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 051730
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 AM PST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER...WITH BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS AT
TIMES...WILL DEVELOP THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK
AT 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. SLOW COOLING AND
A RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW AND NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEXT WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

...EL NINO ADVISORY ISSUED THIS MORNING BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER. SEE THE HEADLINE ON OUR WEBPAGE FOR DETAILS...

THE 05/0000 UTC ECMWF AND 05/0600 UTC GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM AND DIFFER SOMEWHAT IN THE LONG-TERM.

AT 9 AM PST...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN CA...AND A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW
AROUND 250 MILES SW OF SAN DIEGO. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SW CA...WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER
THE AREA. A 1034 MB HIGH OVER WESTERN CENTRAL NV AND A 1022 MB LOW
NEAR SAN DIEGO WAS CREATING BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH. BREEZY WINDS WILL DIMINISH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY RISING 5 TO 10
DEGREES F WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
NORTHERN CA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS...ALONG WITH THE CUT-OFF
UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO OUR S-SW AND STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN...WILL CONTINUE BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH
MOUNTAIN PASSES...CANYONS AND COASTAL MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS THROUGH
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE MORNINGS AND SLIGHTLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH FRIDAY MORNING FORECAST TO
BE THE WINDIEST. GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY...WITH
WINDIER LOCATIONS SUCH AS SILL HILL...POSSIBLY OBSERVING GUSTS
NEAR 60 MPH AS OFFSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS PEAK AT -16 MB
FROM EASTERN IDAHO TO SAN DIEGO. DOWNSLOPING SURFACE WINDS AND
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL INCREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES TO 5 TO 15
DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY SUNDAY.

ON MONDAY...THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN...AND THE CUT-OFF LOW
TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW
NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP ALOFT...START A SLOW COOLING TREND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND REDEVELOP MARINE LAYER STRATUS AND FOG
ALONG THE COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOW A TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN CA NEXT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AND GENERATE
COOLER WEATHER AND LIGHT PRECIP OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH
THE PERIOD. AS OF NOW...PRECIP DOES NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD NEXT
WEDNESDAY WITH THE BRUNT OF THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAINING
TO OUR NORTH. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS LOWER HEIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY
GREATER INSTABILITY OVER SW CA COMPARED TO THE GFS. BOTH CONTINUE
TO HINT A SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVER SW
CA...THEREFORE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR MAINLY
MOUNTAINS AND INLAND VALLEYS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
051630Z...CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY. AREAS OF NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT
TIMES...STRONGEST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. THESE WINDS WILL PRODUCE LOCAL
LLWS AND ISOLATED STRONG UP/DOWNDRAFTS.

&&

.MARINE...
800 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE...23


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