Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 221747

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
147 PM AST Wed Feb 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A seasonable weather pattern is expected to prevail
during the next several days with passing showers across windward
areas followed by limited afternoon convection across the western
quadrant of Puerto Rico each day. Above normal temperatures are
likely by the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend.


.DISCUSSION...Partly cloudy skies and brief passing showers along
the coastal areas of northeast Puerto Rico as well as the USVI
prevailed during the morning hours and early in the afternoon.
Temperatures were generally in the low to mid 80s under a
northeasterly wind flow at 15 mph.

A seasonable weather pattern will continue to prevail across
the local islands through early next week under a building mid
level ridge and near normal precipitable water. In fact, the
day with the best moisture advection is tomorrow during mid
day. Latest guidance suggests that precipitable water may reach
the above normal range on Monday. However, through the forecast
period the mid levels will remain dry. At lower levels, the
northeast winds will continue to prevail through tonight becoming
southeast Thursday morning as a surface low prevails across the
southwest Atlantic and a surface high north of the area shifts
further east.

Therefore under the aforementioned pattern, continue to expect
trade wind showers in the morning and evening hours followed by
limited afternoon convection. The southerly wind flow will likely
to result in above normal temperatures along the northern slopes
of Puerto Rico Thursday and into the upcoming weekend.


.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions expected across the local
flying area for the next 24 hours. Some light and brief showers
can be expected in the vicinity of the terminals tonight. Low
level winds are expected to be from the NE to ENE after 22/22Z
at about 10 KT.


.MARINE...A gradual increase in winds and seas is expected later
today and for the rest of the week with seas up to 7 feet expected
to approach the offshore Atlantic waters by Thursday and Friday
due to pulses from a northerly swell. The increasing winds and
seas will again cause the risk of rip currents to become high
Thu night and into Friday.


SJU  73  87  73  87 /  30  30  20  20
STT  74  85  73  82 /  40  40  20  20




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