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000
FXUS65 KSLC 180355
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
955 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM AND DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH TUESDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE SOUTH
REMAINS WARM AND DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
BASIN THIS EVENING...DOWNSTREAM FROM AN UPPER LOW SPINNING JUST
OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS
MAINTAINING A VERY DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND THIS
WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HIGH
BASED CU WHICH DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE UINTAS/WASATCH
PLATEAU PROVED TOO SHALLOW TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING OR
PRECIPITATION...AND IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. WILL UPDATE THE GRIDS TO REMOVE ANY LINGERING POPS FOR
THIS ACTIVITY.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY FURTHER DRYING AN ALREADY DRY AIRMASS. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN UT WEDNESDAY BEFORE STALLING OVER
CENTRAL UT WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL COOL THE NORTH WHILE THE
SOUTH REMAINS VERY WARM AND DRY. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND AND STALL ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR
THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...ALBEIT A BIT WEAKER AND COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE WINDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THESE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
TUESDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
ONLY A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF A LAKE BREEZE AFTER 20Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AHEAD OF THIS LOW...WINDS WILL INCREASE
NEARLY DISTRICT-WIDE TUESDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO BE QUITE LOW.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO NEARLY STALL ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH...WHICH WILL
BRING YET ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES TO AREAS
SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

GIVEN THE THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A RED FLAG WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FROM NOON TUESDAY THROUGH 10 PM THURSDAY FOR ALL
ZONES WITH CRITICAL FUELS. IF ADDITIONAL ZONES BECOME CRITICAL
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THEY WILL NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE RED
FLAG WARNING. WINDS MAY REMAIN SOMEWHAT STRONG ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN UTAH FRIDAY AND THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING MAY NEED TO
BE EXTENDED FURTHER.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 10 PM MDT THURSDAY BELOW
     7000 FEET FOR UTZ488-489-493-494.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 10 PM MDT THURSDAY BELOW
     9000 FEET FOR UTZ496.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 10 PM MDT THURSDAY BELOW
     6000 FEET FOR UTZ495.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 10 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR
     UTZ497-498.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)