Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 222212
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
412 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD TROUGH WILL IMPACT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.




&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY)...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON...AS A FALL-LIKE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM HAS
BEGUN IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL UTAH AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS ABOUT
CEDAR CITY THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME MODEL
DEPICTIONS HAVE SHOWERS ENDING ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER THE PRIMARY
COLD FRONTAL BAND PASSES...BUT IT LOOKS MORE LIKELY THAT PERIODS
OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL MOVES OVERHEAD.

THE MODELS HAVE HELD ONTO THE QUICKER SOLUTION THAT THEY
INTRODUCED LAST NIGHT...WHICH BRINGS THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS
OVERHEAD AROUND 18Z SATURDAY...AND THEN INTO WYOMING AND COLORADO
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD HELP TAPER OFF MOST SHOWERS
FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SUN PERHAPS COMING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON IN SOME LOCATIONS. DESPITE
700MB TEMPERATURES GETTING AS LOW AS 1 DEGREE CELSIUS OVER FAR
NORTHERN UTAH AT 18Z SATURDAY...SOME WEAK WARMING AND ADDITIONAL
SUNLIGHT LATE IN THE DAY COULD HELP MANY VALLEY TEMPS IN NORTHERN
UTAH REACH 70 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.

SUNDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE A BREAK BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS...WITH
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND SLOW WARMING. THE NEXT TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO DIG INTO NORTHERN UTAH ON MONDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH THE
BEST PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY LOOKING TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS IN THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM (BEGINNING 06Z TUESDAY)...THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. THERE IS DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS
AND THE EC REGARDING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
EC SPREADS PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN UTAH...WHILE THE GFS IS QUITE DRY
DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...BRINGING A WARMING...DRYING TREND. TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING...THE GFS AND EC SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE WESTERN US TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH 03Z TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...A 60
PERCENT CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER
CELLS THROUGH THAT TIME. THE COLD FRONT IS THROUGH AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE STATE WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN UTAH THIS EVENING AND CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE
INTO TOMORROW MORNING...AND WILL TAPER OFF TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
WETTING RAIN WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON MOST OF
THE STATE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EXTREME SOUTHERN UTAH...WILL HAVE
SEEN WETTING RAIN. TOMORROW WILL BE COOL...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. THERE IS
DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AS TO HOW WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL EXIST ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
UTAH.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHOENING `
LONG TERM/FIRE WEATHER...HOSENFELD
AVIATION...MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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