Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 060308
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
808 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ALONG THE WEST COAST
WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND GENERALLY WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DUE TO MECHANICAL ISSUES...THERE WAS NO 00Z KSLC RAOB THIS
EVENING.

WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A RIDGE DOMINATING THE WESTERN CONUS. AMDAR
400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS PLACE A ANTICYCLONIC 65-125KT JET FROM
WESTERN CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. GOES/GPS/RAP INDICATE THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE RANGES BETWEEN 0.05-0.10" MOUNTAINS...TO
0.20-0.25" MOST VALLEYS. BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT
INDICATES AN ABNORMALLY DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE WEST...WITH A
MOISTURE TAP ACROSS WESTERN CANADA.

WITH RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT GOING FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE. A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPILL OVER THE RIDGE INTO NORTHERN UTAH...BUT
SOUTHERN UTAH SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE CURVE BASED
ON OBSERVATIONS AND LAMP GUIDANCE. REST UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT LOCKED IN ON THE WEST COAST MAINTAIN
STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR 700MB WARMING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WILL KEEP THE WARMING
TREND GOING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE DAYS.

WEAK SHORTWAVES CRESTING THE WEST COAST RIDGE WILL DO LITTLE TO
WEAKEN THE RIDGE. AS A RESULT THESE SHORTWAVES WILL TAKE A SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST TRACK THROUGH UTAH THIS WEEKEND. THE THREAT OF PRECIP
STILL LOOKS TO BE REMOTE AS THE DYNAMIC LIFT IS MINIMAL AND THE
AMBIENT AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE DRY. MODEST LOW-LEVEL COOLING
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH ON SUNDAY.

THE WEAK WAVE ON SUNDAY WILL LEAVE A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS IN
PLACE...BUT WARMING RETURNS QUICKLY ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE RE-
AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST COAST. THAT RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE GREAT
BASIN ON TUESDAY...AND COMBINED WITH A SLOWLY INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING TEMPERATURES AT LEAST 10 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT ABOVE
NORMAL ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MODELS HAVE
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT THE INITIAL TIMING OF THE NEXT
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN INTO THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF UTAH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH CLOUD COVER
WILL START TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES
COULD STILL BE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...WITH GOOD MIXING AND EVEN
STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WITH BETTER AGREEMENT IN THIS
APPROACHING TROUGH...HAVE WARMED TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WITH DECENT SOUTHERLY WINDS.

THE TROUGH LOOKS TO BRING COOLER AND MOISTER AIR INTO THE FORECAST
AREA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...MODELS AGREE THAT THE
BULK OF THE TROUGH...INCLUDING THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL...STAYS
OVER CALIFORNIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH ONLY
WEAKER AND SHALLOWER FORCING OVER UTAH. AS SUCH...HAVE KEPT POPS
RELATIVELY CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW...ESPECIALLY WITH THE 18Z GFS
TRENDING DRIER WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE. BEYOND THURSDAY...DETAILS
BEGIN TO DIFFER BETWEEN THE MODELS...WITH THE TROUGH WANDERING
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE WEST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE
MINIMAL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...ROGOWSKI/CONGER/SCHOENING
AVIATION...SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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