Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSTO 301028
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
328 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND DRY WEATHER AGAIN TODAY WITH A SLOW COOLING TREND INTO
NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS MONSOON MOISTURE
IS PULLED NORTHWARD...OTHERWISE CONTINUED DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST BRINGING FAIR SKIES TO THE
CWA THIS MORNING. MARINE LAYER A BIT DEEPER THIS MORNING AT ABOUT
1500 FEET WITH DELTA BREEZE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES IN THE DELTA INFLUENCED AREAS ARE
RUNNING A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES LESS THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME UNDER A WARMER AIRMASS.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIPS INLAND FROM JUST OFF THE COAST TODAY
BRINGING A SLIGHT WARM UP MOST AREAS. IN THE DELTA INFLUENCED
AREAS AN INCREASED DELTA BREEZE WILL BRING DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY
DOWN A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES. SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING MONSOON MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND MAY SEE AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NORTHERN SIERRA CREST SOUTH OF US
50. MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY WITH
TPW ESTIMATES AROUND AN INCH REACHING NORTHWARD TO ABOUT THE
REDDING AREA. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOUNTAIN CRESTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INLAND ON FRIDAY BRINGING
DECREASED SUBSTANCE AND A LITTLE COOLING MOST AREAS.

A WEAK UPPER LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WILL EDGE A BIT
CLOSER TO THE COAST ON SATURDAY BRINGING A BIT MORE COOLING MOST
AREAS WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE DELTA AND NEAR DELTA AREAS
DROPPING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
INDICATING A SHORT WAVE ROTATING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE OFFSHORE
LOW MOVING THROUGH NORCAL SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD SHUNT ANY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FROM
THE COAST RANGE ON SATURDAY BUT MAY ALSO PRODUCE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SIERRA CASCADE RANGE AND THE MOUNTAINS OF SHASTA COUNTY. ONLY
MINOR CHANGES ARE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY SO EXPECT OVERALL PATTERN TO
BE SIMILAR OVER BOTH WEEKEND DAYS WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND SIERRA CASCADE RANGE AND
NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

ONE MORE DAY OF SIERRA THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS MONSOON
MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA. TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE LIKELY REMAINING EAST OF THE CREST...ENDING
THE CHANCES FOR ANY CONVECTION BY TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RULE
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK AS AREA REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN TROUGH TO
THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR THE WEEK AS AIRMASS COOLS AND
ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS. CEO
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS FOR TAF SITES. POSSIBLE LOCAL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS NEAR CURRENT FIRES DUE TO SMOKE. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10-15 KTS FOR TAF SITES. WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE
INVOF DELTA.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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