Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 091047

347 AM PDT FRI OCT 9 2015

High pressure over the southwest U.S for dry conditions and above
normal temperatures through the middle of next week. A slight
cooling over the weekend. A slight chance of mountain showers the
end of next week.


Upper level ridge over the west coast for mainly fair skies this
morning. High cloudiness over the north state on Thursday has
moved east of the forecast area so clearer skies are expected
today. Little change in overall airmass is expected today but may
see a degrees or two increase in temperatures some areas with less
high cloudiness overhead. A Pacific frontal system moving through
the Pacific Northwest will bring a few high clouds and a little
cooling over the weekend but daytime highs will still remain a
little above normal. Breezy winds are likely Saturday afternoon
and evening as this system moves through to the north. High
pressure rebuilds on Monday for clearer skies and warmer


Medium range models extend upper ridging from the Desert SW over
NorCal with closed upper low off the Baja coast Tuesday. Low
progged to gradually meander slightly northward through midweek
but differ with how far north. 00z ECMWF lifts low to near 24N
late Wednesday into Thursday, and then fills it as it tracks
across far SoCal Friday. EC keeps associated QPF south of the CWA.
Oper GFS and multiple ensembles keeps it basically from 20N
southward and quasistationary which would keep it far enough south
to have little impact for our forecast area. GEM leans more
towards the EC solution. NAEFS QPF probability shows 10 to 20
POPs over the higher elevations. Given model differences, will
leave in mention of a slight chance of showers over the higher
terrain of the Coastal Range and Sierra Nevada Thursday into


Upr rdg movs E with incrsg SWly alf into Sat. VFR conds ovr Intr
NorCal nxt 24 hrs.



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