Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 201445
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1045 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The 7 am EDT regional surface analysis showed a relatively strong
ridge across the Piedmont and south GA, helping to give our region
east to northeast winds. An ill-defined, quasi-stationary front
extended from the central FL coast to the central Gulf of Mexico,
though its exact position is subject to debate. Vapor imagery and
upper air data showed a broad closed low centered over northeast
FL, with strong drying/sinking air aloft over most of our forecast
area. Local radars showed scattered showers along the northeast FL
coast. With such strong drying/subsidence, it seems doubtful that
much deep moist convection will develop today. The exception will
be around Valdosta, which is still under the influence of weak
rising motion and slightly better thermodynamics. Our PoP, which
is a blend of the latest MOS, our previous forecast, and our
latest WRF runs, ranges from 40% at Valdosta to 20% at Albany &
Tallahassee (and 10% or less westward). Highs will only be in the
mid 80s, as it will take some time to mix out the low stratocu
enshrouding much of our region.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Sunday] The Widespread low-end MVFR cigs (1-1.5k ft)
will slowly improve to around 3k ft by early afternoon, then
become VFR or scattered by mid afternoon. Scattered SHRA/isolated
TSRA will affect mainly KVLD this afternoon. Otherwise, once the
cigs scatter out later today, VFR conditions and PoPs of 10% or
less are expected through Sunday.

&&

.Prev Discussion [315 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...

Isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm could linger into the
evening hours tonight over the SE 1/2 of the CWA before clearing
skies, along with cooler and drier air move in from the NW
overnight. Before sunrise, low temperatures are expected to drop
into the seasonably cool lower to middle 60s to the N, and middle to
upper 60s to the S. A very warm and dry day is in store for Sunday,
with highs around 90 degrees away from the immediate coast. This
will be followed by a similarly cool and dry period on Sunday night,
with a slightly hotter and more humid day on Monday, which will also
feature 20-30% chances of showers and thunderstorms over the NW 2/3
of the interior during the afternoon as the next cold front
approaches from the NW. Lows on Sunday night will be in the middle
60s across much of the interior with upper 60s near the coast, and
highs on Monday will generally be in the lower 90s.


.Long Term [Monday Night Through Friday]...

Not much has changed with respect to the expectations for next
week from our forecast yesterday. There is still some run-to-run
model inconsistency with the upper level flow pattern over the
CONUS, but models largely agree on an extended period of low-level
easterly flow for our area. There is likely to be a surface high
centered over or near the Northeast US, and we will be on the
southern periphery of the surface ridge. Therefore, some small
rain chances are likely to persist through the week, with
temperatures slightly below normal.


.Marine...

The strong easterly winds which developed over the coastal waters
on Friday have gradually weakened overnight, and the Small Craft
Advisory over the offshore legs will now expire at 4 AM EDT this
morning. However, the cautionary conditions will continue over the
entire marine area through the morning hours, with winds and seas
diminishing by this afternoon. Thereafter, light winds and low
seas should return for the remainder of the weekend and Monday of
next week, before increasing once again later on Tuesday and
Wednesday as a strong ridge of high pressure builds in to the
northeast of the region behind a cold front.


.Fire Weather...

Relative humidity values will remain above critical thresholds over
the next several days despite the intrusion of drier air. Thus,
hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected.


.Hydrology...

Only light rainfall amounts are expected to fall across the region
over the next several days, creating little or no impact on our
area rivers and streams.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   85  67  90  65  92 /  20  20   0   0  10
Panama City   85  71  87  72  90 /  10  10   0   0  10
Dothan        84  65  90  65  90 /  10  10   0   0  30
Albany        84  64  90  65  91 /  20  10   0   0  30
Valdosta      83  65  90  64  92 /  40  20  10   0  10
Cross City    85  65  88  67  92 /  40  20  10  10  10
Apalachicola  85  72  85  72  87 /  20  20   0   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...GOULD
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GOULD






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