Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 200646
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
246 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

The TUTT low currently centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will
continue to move westward through the period, with moisture
gradually advecting back into the region on the eastern periphery.
The 00Z RAOBs from TAE and JAX continue to suggest a tight moisture
gradient between the two site, with drier air prevailing from
Tallahassee westward. Though moistening is expected today, shower
and thunderstorm chances will remain more prevalent across the
eastern third of the forecast area. Expect showers and storms to
develop along the east coast sea breeze early this afternoon and
move eastward into the area by late afternoon/early evening.
Afternoon high temperatures will likely soar into the mid to upper
90s, barring any surprise cloud cover during the day. Heat indicies
will once again range from 100 to 105F.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

TUTT low will continue to move westward towards the upper Texas
coast by late Tuesday. East to west mid level ridging will build
across the southeast US into the mid south. Deep east to southeast
flow will advect tropical moisture into the southeast and
overspreading the region this period. Column moisture and PWATs
will increase leading to near normal (40-50%) chances for
rainfall for mid August especially in the afternoon and early
evening hours. High temperatures will be more towards the low 90s
with anticipated cloud cover and rainfall Monday/Tuesday.


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

Ridging shifts towards the Gulf coast in response to a deepening
and digging east US trough. This trough will support a front that
will make a run at the southeast towards the end of the work week
and into next weekend. Increasing rain chances is expected with
favorable moisture levels and mid/upper level support. 50-60%
chance for rainfall is expected each afternoon Thursday through
Sunday. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Monday]...

VFR conditions expected through the period, with the exception of a
brief period of IFR to LIFR CIGS and vsby at VLD prior to sunrise.
Light southeasterly winds will prevail today, with iso to sct TSRA
developing around VLD this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...

Generally light winds will continue through the period resulting
in low seas. Isolated showers and storms are possible each day,
especially in the overnight hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Outside of marginally low dispersions across the Big Bend of Florida
this afternoon, hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected
through the next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Only isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected through
Sunday. Rain chances will increase to near normal levels on Monday
through Wednesday, when some localized flooding in urban areas
would be possible with the strongest storms. However, coverage
will not be sufficient to result in any river flooding.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   95  75  92  75  92 /  20  20  50  20  30
Panama City   93  78  90  77  89 /  20  20  40  20  30
Dothan        96  75  93  74  90 /  10  10  50  20  30
Albany        96  75  93  74  92 /  10  10  40  20  30
Valdosta      95  74  91  73  92 /  50  30  40  20  30
Cross City    95  74  91  74  92 /  40  30  40  20  10
Apalachicola  91  77  90  77  89 /  10  30  30  30  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Pullin
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM...Scholl
AVIATION...Pullin
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Pullin
HYDROLOGY...Godsey



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