Area Forecast Discussion
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750
FXUS62 KTAE 170521
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
121 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Wednesday]...

A broken low cloud deck currently resides over SW Georgia, with
MVFR cigs at VLD. Current obs show that most locations around VLD
have VFR conditions, and the MVFR cigs are expected to be short-
lived at that terminal with VFR conditions returning within a
couple of hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions will likely prevail
through the end of the period across our area. Northerly winds
will gradually become northeasterly around 10 kts during the
morning, with gusts to around 15 kts possible throughout the day.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [759 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Scattered showers and weak thunderstorms have developed along and
ahead of the cold front that is draped across the region at this
hour. Convection is expected to remain shallow, keeping any
instances of thunder isolated. The pre-frontal environment will
continue to be a limiting factor in shower and storm coverage, with
weak shear and modest CAPE (500-1000 J/KG) in place, keeping storms
on the weak side. Shower and thunderstorm chances will sharply
decrease with the passage of the front, with low to mid-level clouds
expected to filter in post-frontal this evening and tonight. With
it`s current pace, the front should clear the CWA no later than mid-
evening, giving way to cloudy and much cooler conditions. Expect
overnight lows to fall into the lower 50s across the northern half
of the CWA under mostly clear skies, with low to mid 60s across the
southern half, where cloud cover will remain prevalent overnight.


.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

Broad upper-level troughing will prevail through the period, with
ridging at the surface and the front just south of our southeast
Big Bend counties. Northeasterly low-level flow will keep a
relatively dry airmass in place allowing overnight lows to fall
into the 50s each night (away from the coast). Afternoon highs
will be about 10 degrees below normal on Tuesday, though warm back
to normal (low 80s) by Wednesday as the cold pool aloft erodes.


.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

Deep layer ridging will build in over the extended forecast
period, with low-level flow shifting more easterly on the
southwestern periphery of the ridge. This pattern will result in
moderating overnight lows and warming afternoon highs. Above
average temperatures across the board are expected by Friday.


.MARINE...

In the wake of a cold front and at the base of a surface ridge,
expect marginal Advisory conditions for most of the week. Showers
and isolated storms will be possible across our offshore waters
each day.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Drier air will move into the area behind a cold front. However,
minimum RH values are not expected to drop below critical
thresholds, and red flag conditions are not expected.


.HYDROLOGY...

No flooding concerns as no rain is expected (after today`s front)
for the next week or so.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   73  54  81  60  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   75  58  80  62  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        72  50  78  54  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        72  49  77  54  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      72  53  78  58  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    75  59  82  63  85 /  10   0  10   0  10
Apalachicola  74  60  81  64  83 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for Coastal Waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Pullin
LONG TERM...Harrigan
AVIATION...Lahr
MARINE...Barry
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...DVD



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