Area Forecast Discussion
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569
FXUS62 KTAE 102012
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
312 PM EST Sat Dec 10 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

High pressure situated across the Tennessee Valley this afternoon
will shift eastward to the mid-Atlantic by morning. Across the CWA,
this will bring the northeast winds to east overnight. The main
impact will be an increase in cloud coverage with the easterly
surface winds and southerly 850mb winds bringing in more low level
moisture. This will also help to moderate overnight lows which will
be in the mid to upper 30s inland to the low to mid 40s along the
coast. Any isolated spots that reach freezing would most likely be
across the northwest portion of the CWA.  With increasing moisture
and isentropic lift, a few showers will be possible across the
marine area for the second half of the night, but these showers
should remain south of the land area through tonight.


.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

Split zonal flow at upper levels across the eastern half of the
CONUS on Sunday will yield to a broad upper trough on Monday,
along with a strengthening upper level jet stretching from the
mid-Mississippi Valley through the Ohio River Valley region. As
this occurs, the broad surface high that was in place over the
eastern states will move offshore and moist southerly flow will
occur over our area. This will increase PWAT values to 1.0-1.5"
from Sunday night into Monday morning, and along with decent
isentropic lift, this will result in a slight chance of showers
for much of our area. By Monday afternoon, isentropic lift will
likely weaken, so most of our area except far northern locations
should remain dry.

A warming trend will occur through this period, with Sunday`s
highs mainly in the 60s (some lower 70s possible in the eastern FL
Big Bend), and lows in the 50s. On Monday, highs will warm into
the mid 70s across most of our area, and Monday night`s lows will
be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

The broad upper level trough and strong jet to our north mentioned
in the short term discussion will persist over the eastern CONUS through
Thursday, before transitioning to an upper ridge Friday and
Saturday. As the upper trough axis moves through our area, a cold
front will move southeastward at the surface and bring increasing
rain chances into our area Tuesday through Wednesday. The best
chance for isolated thunderstorms will occur on Tuesday afternoon,
with SBCAPE increasing above 500 J/kg across much of our area. 0-6
km shear of 40-50 kts is possible during this time, so a few
strong wind-producing storms cannot be ruled out if CAPE is
sufficient. Cooler, drier air will prevail Thursday behind the
front, with slight chances of rain returning Friday through
Saturday as moist southeasterly/southerly flow returns to our
area. Temperatures will remain fairly mild throughout most of this
period with highs in the 60s and 70s; the strong, persistent jet
to our north will likely keep arctic air bottled up across the
northern half of the country through next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Sunday]...

VFR conditions today will deteriorate tonight as low clouds move
into the TAF sites from east to west. This is expected to result in
MVFR cigs across the area and these clouds will persist into Sunday.
Northeast winds this afternoon will become more easterly tonight.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds will remain elevated through tonight, out of the east around
15 to 20 knots with seas generally from 2 to 3 feet. Winds will
gradually decrease through the next few days, although seas could
remain at 2 to 3 feet through Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A moist airmass will return to the region Sunday, with RH values
rising into the 60s and approaching 70 on Monday. Dispersions in the
upper teens will be possible across portions of the Florida
Panhandle, Southeast Alabama and Southwestern Georgia Sunday
afternoon. Otherwise, no hazardous fire weather conditions are
expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Chances of rain will exist over parts of our area from Sunday
night through Wednesday, but heavy rain is not expected.
Therefore no flooding is anticipated at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   39  69  54  76  61 /   0  10  10  10  10
Panama City   44  67  59  72  64 /   0  10  30  20  20
Dothan        35  62  52  73  60 /   0  10  30  20  30
Albany        36  63  51  74  59 /   0  10  20  20  30
Valdosta      38  69  54  76  59 /   0  10  10  10  10
Cross City    43  73  56  76  58 /   0  10  10  10  10
Apalachicola  46  67  60  73  63 /  10  10  20  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Fieux
SHORT TERM...Lahr
LONG TERM...Lahr
AVIATION...Fieux
MARINE...Lahr
FIRE WEATHER...Pullin
HYDROLOGY...Lahr



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