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FXUS62 KTAE 100525
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1225 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Thursday]...

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period with clear
skies expected. Winds will be from the west northwest to
northwest today around 10-15kts with gusts to 20-22kts.

&&

.Prev Discussion [824 PM EST]...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Gusty winds will continue through the afternoon and diminish
around sunset. The Wind Advisory ended up being expanded earlier
as a few gusts in excess of 40 mph were measured in Leon county
with other sites in southern Georgia gusting just under 40 mph.
For temperatures, a light freeze is expected across a large part
of the area away from the coast. With winds around 10 mph, wind
chills will flirt with the local advisory criteria of 20 degrees
across the far northern portions of the area. However, since this
is expected to be brief and marginal, feel a Wind Chill Advisory
is not needed.


.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

We look to be in line for another light freeze on Wednesday Night,
although in this case it will be more due to efficient radiational
cooling (as compared to strong cold air advection tonight). The
low-level anticyclone will be centered more or less directly over
our forecast area 06-09Z Thursday.

Otherwise, deep westerly flow will set up through the period which
should allow for slow moderation in temperatures as warm air
advection persists. By Thursday and Thursday Night, temperatures
should be closer to seasonal normals. Sunny skies and dry weather
are expected to prevail.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

An upper level trough will gradually deepen in the eastern US.
Temps will begin a couple of degrees above normal with highs
reaching the 70s in the FL Big Bend. With the trough bringing
cooler temps and a weak frontal passage, temps will cool over the
weekend keeping lows in the 30s. On Monday, a cold front will make
its way through the southeast increasing the chance for rain.
Besides Monday, cool and dry weather is expected over the CWA.


.Marine...

With many buoy and coastal observations still gusting to near or
just over gale force, the Gale Warning was maintained. In fact,
some models show another burst of stronger gusts this evening as
deeper cold air arrives. Therefore, the warning was also extended
for all zone segments through 07Z. A Small Craft Advisory will
then go into effect. Winds and seas should subside on Wednesday.


.Fire Weather...

Red flag conditions will be possible across parts of north
Florida tomorrow as winds are expected to be near the 15 mph
threshold, coupled with low RH and elevated ERC values. Elsewhere,
fuel moisture criteria will not support red flag conditions
across Georgia and Alabama. In addition to red flag criteria,
dispersion indices will be marginally high tomorrow, and a bit
higher on Thursday.


.Hydrology...

Many rivers are high or in flood stage at this time. Most area
rivers are currently steady or falling. No significant rainfall
is expected through the next week.

On the Choctawhatchee River, Caryville has crested and is slowly
falling. Near Bruce, the river is in moderate flood and is
currently cresting near 15.5 feet.

The Apalachicola River at Blountstown has crested and is falling
slowly, but will remain in flood stage all week.

The Ochlockonee River at Concord has crested and will fall below
flood stage Wednesday night.

The Withlacoochee River at Valdosta has crested and is falling.
Further downstream the Withlacoochee is still rising.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   30  53  30  65  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   38  51  38  63  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dothan        27  49  30  64  43 /   0   0   0   0  10
Albany        27  49  28  62  41 /   0   0   0   0  10
Valdosta      29  50  29  62  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    32  54  28  62  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  38  53  36  62  52 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ Wednesday FOR Calhoun-
     Central Walton-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-
     Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-
     Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-North
     Walton-Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ Wednesday FOR
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday FOR Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Gulf.

GA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST Wednesday FOR Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-
     Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-
     Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST Wednesday FOR Coffee-Dale-Geneva-
     Henry-Houston.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday FOR Apalachee Bay
     or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River Fl
     out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
     Beach out 20 NM.

     Gale Warning until 2 AM EST Wednesday FOR Apalachee Bay or
     Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River Fl
     out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to
     Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee
     River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee
     River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday FOR Coastal Waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS/CHANEY
AVIATION...FIEUX
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...WESTON


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