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000
FXUS62 KTBW 191345
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
945 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.UPDATE...
The upper low continues to spin just to the west of Florida. This
will be the dominant weather feature over the next 24 hours. The
morning sounding is showing a drastic decrease in moisture with a
PWAT of only 1.50 inches. This combined with decreased CAPE of 898
will limit any storm potential this afternoon. The radar has been
quiet this morning and model guidance is indicating that minimal
rain chances can be expected through the day. The main weather issue
today will be hot temperatures with heat indices over 100 degrees
expected in many areas. Forecast is looking good for now with no
changes needed.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions can be expected through much of the day with drier
mid to upper levels. Isolated and VCTS late this morning through
early afternoon with localized and brief restrictions possible from
15Z-18Z. No other aviation impacts expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Weak Bermuda high pressure ridge axis remains across central FL with
weak tropical waves in the region through the weekend with light
winds and seas 2 feet or less. The pressure gradient slightly
tighten early to mid next week with easterly wind surges for slight
increase in seas with increasing rain chances. The main concern will
be dangerous lightning, locally higher winds and choppy seas near
thunderstorms.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  93  80  92  78 /  20  10  30  30
FMY  95  77  91  77 /  20  20  50  30
GIF  96  76  92  76 /  20  20  40  20
SRQ  92  78  92  78 /  10  10  30  30
BKV  94  74  94  76 /  30  10  30  20
SPG  93  80  92  79 /  20  10  30  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...74/Wynn
UPPER AIR...42/Norman
DECISION SUPPORT...57/McMichael