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000
FXUS62 KTBW 061903
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
203 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015


.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK AND SHALLOW COLD FRONT WAS SOUTH OF NAPLES. REAL PUSH OF COOL
AIR SHOWED UP AS A LINE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM NEAR DAYTONA BEACH
TO SAINT PETERSBURG. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
EAST AND SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 50S IN
CEDAR KEY TO THE LOWER 80S IN FORT MYERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY)...
COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS OVERNIGHT AS COOL AIR
AND LOW CLOUDS SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. DRIER AIR SLOWLY
BEGINS TO WORK INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA SATURDAY BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TO REMAIN.

.MID/LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
CHANGES IN STORE AS THE PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF
THE U.S. FILLS AND FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ALOFT. A LOWER LATITUDE SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO TEXAS MONDAY
THEN SLOWING DOWN. A PERSISTENT MID/UPPER RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA AND
THE BAHAMAS WILL KEEP THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER TO THE WEST
UNTIL NEXT FRIDAY.  ON SUNDAY THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL STREAM
CLOUDINESS AT TIMES ACROSS THE PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY WHEN THE
WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE.  BY FRIDAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED LOW CLOUDS OFF TAMPA BAY AND TO THE NORTH.
PATCHY FOG PERSISTED OFFSHORE OF FORT MYERS. NORTHEAST WINDS TO PICK
UP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WILL ISSUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 20-60
NM OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN ZONES AND A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
(SCEC)ELSEWHERE. WINDS AND SEAS RELAX A BIT SATURDAY BUT SCEC TO
REMAIN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS FLORIDA OVER THE WEEKEND AND
KEEPS FRONTS OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT IN FAR SOUTH FLORIDA BUT PUSH OF COOL AIR LAGS BEHIND AND
SHOWED UP AS A NARROW LINE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM TAMPA TO
DAYTONA. EXPANSIVE DECK OF IFR CIGS TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
BY 04Z...BUT VISIBILITY EXPECTED TO BE P6SM. VFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER
14Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY DIPS BELOW 35 PERCENT NEAR CHEIFLAND SATURDAY BUT
FUEL MOISTURE RELATIVELY HIGH SO NO FLAG NEEDED. HUMIDITY INCREASE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  53  72  59  79 /  10   0  10  20
FMY  61  80  64  82 /  10  10  10  40
GIF  54  72  58  78 /  10   0  20  20
SRQ  57  75  60  79 /  10   0  10  30
BKV  49  71  52  79 /  10   0  20  10
SPG  57  71  62  77 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60
     NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...72/NOAH
DECISION SUPPORT/LONG TERM...03/PAXTON
MARINE...07/DOUGHERTY