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000
FXUS62 KTBW 090200
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
900 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

.UPDATE (TONIGHT)...
00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A BENIGN UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS/GULF OF MEXICO CONSISTING
OF MAINLY ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY RIDGED FLOW. DEEP AND ENERGETIC
TROUGHING IS SEEN UPSTREAM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/NORTHERN
MEXICO...HOWEVER THIS ENERGY WILL NOT BOTHER US FOR SEVERAL DAYS AT
LEAST...OTHER THAN SOME PERIODIC BATCHES OF HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS
STREAMING OVERHEAD IN THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW.

00Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY DRY COLUMN
THROUGH THE TROP WITH A PW AROUND 0.6". THE LACK OF COLUMN MOISTURE
AND VIRTUALLY NO SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR LIFT IS LEAVING UP WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...AND THIS WILL HOLD AT MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT.

A COOL NIGHT UPCOMING...BUT NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS WAS SEEN INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. MOST SPOTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR
WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...WHILE MUCH OF THE
NATURE COAST SEES 40S BY THE TIME THE SUN RISES SUNDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER FAIR AND PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO MODERATE. MORE ON SUNDAY IS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
SECTION BELOW. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT!

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD IN PLACE ACROSS THE FLORID PENINSULA THROUGH
THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF
AND WITH A STRONG WEST-EAST ORIENTED UPPER JET RUNNING ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...WOULD EXPECTED SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND
HIGH CLOUD TO INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL SHOW INCREASING
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TO BE THE RULE. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ANTICIPATED. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES AND IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT AROUND 50 ACROSS THE NATURE
COAST...AND IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ZONES. HIGHS MONDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES...AND IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS
THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
09/00Z-10/00Z: VFR. LIMITED LATE NIGHT BR WILL LIKELY IMPACT
LAL...PGD...FMY...AND RSW. OTHERWISE SKC GIVES WAY TO SOME CUMULUS
LATE DAY SUN. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...EASTERLY
SUN...THEN SHIFT TO WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW HEADLINE THRESHOLDS.
STRONG TERRESTRIAL HEATING WILL FORCE SEA-BREEZES EACH OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...SO MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT WINDS NEAR THE COAST TO
TURN ONSHORE EACH AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO EXERCISE CAUTION OR
ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  54  75  59  76 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  55  81  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  53  79  57  81 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  53  75  58  76 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  43  77  49  79 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  56  76  60  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MROCZKA
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...JELSEMA
AVIATION...RUDE