Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 241338

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
838 AM EST Fri Feb 24 2017

Upper low continues to slowly spin Nward in the W Atlantic
this morning while NW flow aloft filters dry airmass into
the region as seen in 12Z TBW sounding with pwats at 0.81
inches mainly trapped below 1200ft low level inversion.
Abundant low clouds this morning to burn off and mix out
shortly with partly sunny afternoon skies and warm and humid
surface conditions areawide.


Morning MVFR lcl IFR cigs to mix out shortly with generally
VFR conditions returning for the rest of today.


.Prev Discussion... /issued 300 AM EST Fri Feb 24 2017/

Upper-level low continues to move area from the area this morning.
Some low clouds and maybe even some patchy fog will be around until
shortly after sunrise as low-level moisture will remain trapped near
the surface. Upper ridging will build into the area during the day
today allowing for ample sunshine and warm temperatures. Highs in
the lower 80s can be expected with maybe even a few mid 80s across
the interior and SW Florida. Winds will be light overnight Friday
and into Saturday and with ample moisture in place fog will be a
concern. Setup looks more favorable then this morning so have areas
of fog mentioned in the forecast. The weather on Saturday looks
awfully similar to Friday although maybe a degree or two cooler but
temps are still running 5-7 degrees above normal.

Fast zonal flow will become established across much of the mid
section and southern tier of the U.S. as we head into the long term
period. This will occur between two broad upper cyclones, one over
eastern Canada, and the other across the Pacific Northwest. Within
this zonal pattern, a series of cold fronts will move across the
CONUS, bringing temporary blasts of cooler and drier air.

A cold front will surge across the region overnight Saturday night,
bringing a shot of cooler drier air into the region. Given extremely
limited moisture, this looks to be a dry frontal passage, though a
band of increased cloudiness will likely accompany the front as it
surges southward. Breezy north to northeast winds will fill in
behind the front, generating some marine issues, but otherwise
seasonably cool and dry conditions will carry into Sunday.

As we move into the first half of next week, a significant warming
trend will occur. Surface high pressure will remain intact across
the region with persistent easterly flow. A building ridge from the
Caribbean into the southern Gulf of Mexico will allow for subsidence
across the region. This will allow daytime highs to eclipse the mid
80s in many areas Tuesday and Wednesday, making it feel more like
April than February. A few locations across southwest and south-
central Florida may even flirt with 90 degrees.

A potent upper level storm system looks to move across the northern
tier of the country late next week with a trailing cold front. This
front looks to move through the region late Wednesday into Thursday.
As moisture will have increased substantially ahead of the front a
band of showers and embedded storms looks possible, though some
uncertainty remains in terms of timing and coverage of potential
rainfall. Cool high pressure will build in by Friday, beating back
the heat of mid week.

High pressure will build in from the northwest with benign
conditions expected into Saturday. Winds will pick back up to around
15 knots Saturday night as a dry cold front moves into the area.
Winds will increase briefly to near SCA levels behind the front over
the Gulf waters but this will be very short lived.

No fire weather concerns the next few days as RH values will remain
above critical levels.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  80  64  77  57 /   0   0   0  10
FMY  83  62  81  61 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  83  61  82  56 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  78  61  75  59 /   0   0   0  10
BKV  82  57  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  79  65  76  60 /   0   0   0  10


FL...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Sarasota.

Gulf waters...None.


UPPER AIR...42/Norman
DECISION SUPPORT...05/Carlisle is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.