Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 250027
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
827 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Regional radar composite is showing a broken band of
thunderstorms just north of the forecast area, which is
forecast to push south through the area overnight ahead of
the cold front. The HRRR is forecasting that this line will
intensify somewhat after midnight as it moves into the
Tampa Bay area, although a much more compact line of storms
is forecast than what was seen earlier.

Apart from the next round of thunderstorms, the biggest
area of concern remains the wind, although winds are
gradually subsiding. The Lake Wind Advisory is still up
through 10 PM, and coastal flood statements and rip current
advisories are still in effect until Thursday morning.

Some additional tweaks were made to the rain chances and
weather grids from what was updated earlier this evening. No
other changes are planned for the evening update.

&&

.AVIATION...
Most of the storm activity has moved away from the TAF
sites, but another band of showers or storms is forecast to
pass north to south through the overnight hours with the
front, with brief IFR conditions possible. Widespread MVFR
ceilings will continue to impact the area TAF sites through
the overnight hours, although occasional VFR periods will
be possible. Otherwise, winds will turn to more westerly by
Thursday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will start to subside through the next few hours, but
seas are expected to remain at or above advisory levels
through the overnight hours as the cold front passes through
the area. West to northwest winds of 15-20 knots are still
expected Thursday morning, so cautionary headlines will
still be needed after the advisory is dropped, with
conditions continuing to improve through the rest of the
day.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  74  82  68  86 /  40  20   0   0
FMY  76  83  69  90 /  70  50   0   0
GIF  71  83  65  89 /  50  20   0   0
SRQ  76  82  68  84 /  60  20   0   0
BKV  70  80  59  86 /  40  20   0   0
SPG  75  81  71  85 /  50  20   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal
     Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     Lake Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-
     Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal
     Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-
     Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland
     Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-
     Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-
     Polk-Sumter.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for Charlotte
     Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from
     Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters
     from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out
     20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to
     Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to
     Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon
     Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...18/Fleming
UPPER AIR...27/Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...25/Davis


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