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000
FXUS62 KTBW 290835
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
435 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.NEAR TERM (TODAY-TONIGHT)...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO THE
REGION. DEEP MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATER GREATER THAN 2
INCHES...AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
THE AREA TODAY LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NATURE COAST TONIGHT REACHING THE
INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR TOWARD SUNRISE. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO
THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE NATURE COAST OVERNIGHT WHILE FURTHER
SOUTH THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND NEAR THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE
COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S FAR NORTH TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST.

.MID TERM (WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY)...
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL
SUPPORT A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL NOT BE ANY COOLER DURING THE DAY...
BUT SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR COULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE
MIDDLE 60S FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST BY THURSDAY
MORNING. OUR RAIN COVERAGE WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAYS...BUT
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN WE MAY SEE NO SHOWERS AT ALL OVER THE
NATURE COAST. WE WILL SEE A SLOW RETURN OF MOISTURE BEGINNING
THURSDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT THE NATURE COAST WHERE THEY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN
NATURE.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY ON FRIDAY BUT GRADUALLY WEAKENS/FILLS AS WE HEAD INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND
ALLOWING THE SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK OVER THE STATE. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR NORTH THE SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES... BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING US INTO EASTERLY FLOW
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OVER OUR SIDE OF THE STATE...POTENTIALLY NEAR
THE I-75 CORRIDOR WITH CONVERGING SEA BREEZES EACH AFTERNOON.
TAKING A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE STILL PUTS MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TO THE EAST OF I-75...SO MY FORECAST FOLLOWS
SUIT.

AN INTERESTING FEATURE IN THE MODELS THIS MORNING IS A SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF ON MONDAY. BOTH MODELS
RESPOND BY INDICATING A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER BEGINNING SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.
SINCE THIS IS A SYNOPTIC-SCALE SYSTEM RATHER THAN OUR TYPICAL
MESO-SCALE AFTERNOON STORMS DUE TO HEATING/SEA BREEZES...SHOWERS
AND STORMS COULD OCCUR AT ANY TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WHICH WILL CAUSE
SOME MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. COULD ALSO SEE SOME AREAS OF MVFR
CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES SOUTH AND
DAYTIME HEATING GETS UNDERWAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY DURING TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS
AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST
WEDNESDAY THEN BECOME RATHER LIGHT WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
NEAR THE COAST EACH DAY AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP OVER
THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. DURING WEDNESDAY SOME DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE AS FAR SOUTH AS ABOUT THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR
LEADING TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES APPROACHING 35 PERCENT
FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH NO OTHER
FIRE WEATHER PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  78  92  76 /  50  30  10   0
FMY  92  78  93  77 /  40  50  50  20
GIF  93  75  95  74 /  50  30  20  10
SRQ  91  79  92  76 /  50  40  30  10
BKV  93  71  94  67 /  50  20  10  10
SPG  90  80  92  79 /  50  30  20   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...63/JILLSON