Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 240739
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
239 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today - Wednesday)...
The upper level trough will push east off the Atlantic coast today
as a ridge of high pressure builds into the Gulf of Mexico and
slides east into Florida tonight and Wednesday. At the surface, a
tight pressure gradient between the deep low off the Mid-Atlantic
coast and weak high pressure over the southern Gulf is still
producing some breezy winds, but winds will quickly subside this
morning as the low pulls away. With the breezy onshore flow today,
the high surf will continue along area beaches until early this
afternoon, with the rip current risk continuing through at least
sunset. Surface high pressure will then build into the region
tonight and Wednesday with fairly calm conditions taking control.
Under light winds and mostly clear skies tonight, patchy fog will
be a possibility, although dew points still look a bit too dry for
widespread fog development.

Temperatures today will run cooler than they have recently,
although they will really be near the climatological normals for
late January. Highs this afternoon will top out in the upper 60s
and low to mid 70s, and lows tonight are expected to range from the
mid 40s to upper 50s. Temperatures will warm up by 3 to 5 degrees
on Wednesday, generally reaching the mid to upper 70s.

.MID TERM/LONG TERM (Wednesday Night-Monday)...
During the second half of the week through the weekend broad
mid/upper level troughing will setup over the eastern half of the
CONUS with a series of shortwaves moving through the trough. This
will initially push a cold front southward across the region
Thursday bringing some additional clouds and a few showers with it.
The boundary will stall across the Florida Straits and the
southern Gulf of Mexico Friday into Monday and as some of the upper
level energy moves by just to the north moisture will get pulled
north overrunning the boundary. This will lead to an increase in
clouds Saturday and then a chance of rain for Saturday night into
Monday with most of the rain remaining rather light in the
overrunning pattern. Monday night and Tuesday the mid/upper level
troughing will weaken and shift out into the Atlantic with surface
high pressure building in from the northwest helping to clear
skies. Temperatures will start the period above normal Thursday
night and Friday then cooler drier air will move south behind the
front and this combined with the increasing clouds and rain chances
will lead to below normal temperatures, especially daytime highs,
for the weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to hold through early Wednesday morning.
Breezy northwest winds will gradually subside today under mostly
clear skies. Patchy fog will be possible late tonight/Wednesday
morning, but is not expected to develop until after 06z.

&&

.MARINE...
Breezy northwest winds are continuing over the Gulf waters early
this morning, but will quickly subside through the morning as high
pressure builds in from the west. Even as the winds die down, seas
will take a little longer to moderate, but should improve from
north to south and be below advisory criteria over all waters by
this afternoon. High pressure will then hold across the waters
until Thursday, when another cold front moves southeast across the
region, although winds will only pick up to around 15 knots behind
the front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Relative humidity will stay above 35 percent through Thursday.
Patchy fog will be possible tonight and into Wednesday morning,
and will be even more likely Wednesday night.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  70  56  75  66 /   0   0   0  10
FMY  75  56  78  63 /   0   0   0  10
GIF  72  51  78  60 /   0   0   0  10
SRQ  70  56  74  63 /   0   0   0  10
BKV  70  48  77  60 /   0   0   0  10
SPG  70  59  74  64 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal
     Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     High Surf Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-
     Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20
     to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for
     Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters
     from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-
     Tampa Bay waters.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out
     20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs
     FL out 20 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee
     River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...18/Fleming
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...69/Close



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