Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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329
FXUS62 KTBW 080948
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
448 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PENINSULA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NATURE COAST ARE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S WITH LOW TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE. OUR CLEAR SKIES WILL
QUICKLY TRANSITION THROUGHOUT THE DAY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY/OVERCAST BY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. OUR 00Z SOUNDING WAS
VERY DRY WITH A PWAT VALUE NEAR A QUARTER INCH BUT WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE TODAY...ALBEIT VERY SLIGHT...AND MAY BE ABLE TO
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BEST
DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA SO NOT EXPECTING TO SEE ANY
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AS WITH THE LAST SYSTEM THIS PAST WEEKEND BUT
DEFINITELY CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS.

GREATEST CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE WIND...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE COASTAL WATERWAYS. MORE ON THIS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MARINE
SECTION BELOW. THE LONG FETCH AND DURATION OF STRONG WINDS WILL
CREATE LARGE BREAKING SURF ALONG AREA BEACHES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED AND THE RIP CURRENT
STATEMENT REMAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE EXTENT OF THE HIGH SURF MAY
RESULT IN AREAS OF BEACH EROSION...ESPECIALLY AT THE TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

TUESDAY SOME CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE WE SEE
GRADUAL CLEARING. LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON TUESDAY AS
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. TUESDAY WILL BE
ANOTHER COOL DAY FOR US WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS
AND MAYBE SOME LOWER 60S ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. KEEP THOSE
JACKETS HANDY AS THIS FRONT WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

.LONG TERM...
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS DURING
MIDWEEK WILL SHIFT EAST SOME LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE SETTLING BACK
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN DURING MIDWEEK AND SETTLE OVER FLORIDA
LATE IN THE WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A LARGE COLD HIGH PRESSURE
AREA DROPPING OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE EASTERN STATES. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALLOW A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND TO SETUP LATE IN THE
WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT BOUT OF COLD DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY REAL AVIATION
CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING LATE MONDAY. THESE WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE MONDAY
EVENING FOR KTPA/KPIE/KSRQ...AND POSSIBLY DOWN TO KFMY/KRSW. GUSTY
AND ELEVATED NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS EARLY TODAY WILL BE NEAR 10 KNOTS BUT WILL QUICKLY RAMP UP
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GALE WARNINGS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS. THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OFFSHORE ZONES WILL BE FIRST TO EXPERIENCE
GALE CONDITIONS BUT THE REMAINING WATERWAYS WONT BE TOO FAR
BEHIND. WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 25-30 KNOT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE
LATE EVENING INTO TUESDAY WITH FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS LIKELY.
SEAS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO 10-14 FEET ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT ON TUESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN WATERS SO THE GALE WARNING FOR NOW WILL RUN THROUGH 15Z
TUESDAY BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EVEN AFTER
THE GALE CONDITIONS SUBSIDE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN COOL AND DRY FOR MUCH OF THIS
WEEK. WHILE LOW HUMIDITIES AND BREEZY WINDS MAY OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FOR SEVERAL DAYS THIS WEEK...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL...AND ERC VALUES LOW. THEREFORE
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  64  49  58  45 /  20  20  10  10
FMY  65  56  65  48 /   0  20  10  10
GIF  66  45  59  42 /  10  20  10  10
SRQ  66  55  61  48 /  10  20  10  10
BKV  64  45  58  38 /  30  30  10  10
SPG  65  52  59  48 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
     COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER
     FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-
     TAMPA BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...11/MCKAUGHAN
LONG TERM...69/CLOSE



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