Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 041954
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
354 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY)...
RADAR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY TO THE EAST WITH A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE.
STORMS WILL WIND DOWN TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING.

FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WILL BUILD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
LINGERING OVER THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. COULD SEE A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE GULF AND NEAR COASTAL AREAS IN THE
MORNING WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH. WIND FLOW WILL BE A BIT MORE
NORTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY AND CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED ACROSS
THE INTERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN A BIT WESTWARD TOWARD THE
EVENING HOURS...SO WILL SHOW THE BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THESE
LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A MID LEVEL CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND THEN DRIFT SOUTHWEST OUT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
BY MIDWEEK BEFORE WEAKENING AND OPENING UP LATE IN THE WEEK.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE WEAK TROUGHING WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST OVER
DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...TO EASTERLY MONDAY...AND THEN
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN
LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS RAIN CHANCES IT APPEARS THAT WE SHOULD HAVE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND ALONG WITH SOME OF THE COOLER AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF LOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO SEE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. BY MIDWEEK A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN SHOULD
RETURN WITH MORE SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD NEAR KTPA AND KPIE
IN THE MORNING...WITH INCREASING COVERAGE EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MAIN HAZARD FOR MARINERS WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EACH DAY AS WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
HEADLINES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  90  76  90 /  20  50  30  40
FMY  77  91  75  90 /  10  50  40  50
GIF  75  91  74  90 /  20  60  20  50
SRQ  77  90  75  90 /  10  40  30  40
BKV  73  91  72  90 /  20  60  20  40
SPG  79  90  77  89 /  10  40  30  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...05/CARLISLE
LONG TERM...69/CLOSE



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