Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 191355
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
955 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH DEEP
MOISTURE FILLING BACK INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ALSO EVIDENCED IN
REGIONAL MORNING SOUNDINGS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF ARE PUSHING INTO THE COAST...THOUGH
FOR RIGHT NOW...RAINS ARE NOT MAKING IT TOO FAR INLAND EXCEPT OVER
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS A BIT HIGHER AND CAN
SUSTAIN SOME WEAK CONVECTION. THE KTBW 12Z SOUNDING DOES SHOW A
POCKET OF DRIER AIR BELOW 600MB...SO EXPECT THIS LAYER TO
MOISTEN UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND ALLOW THE RAIN COVERAGE TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE. CLOUDY SKIES AND LONG PERIODS OF RAIN WILL
LIKELY PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM RISING OUT OF THE LOW TO MID 80S
AT MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE BUMPED DOWN ABOUT A DEGREE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
POINT AND CLICK FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED AND ZONE FORECASTS
WILL BE SENT OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT RAINS OVER THE GULF ARE SPREADING
INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
FILL IN THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. FOR
KTPA/KPIE/KSRQ/KLAL...RAIN SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT...AND ANY
CEILING OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
MVFR RANGE. FOR KRSW/KFMY/KPGD...A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AND BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WINDS WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST NORTHEAST IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH
SEAS LESS THAN 3 FEET. THE TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. EVEN THOUGH THE
FORECAST WILL BE A WET ONE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THEN NEXT FEW
DAYS...THE ONLY EXPECTED HAZARDS WILL BE HIGHER WIND GUSTS AND
SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY PASSING THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  86  72  86  73 /  80  30  40  40
FMY  87  72  86  72 /  80  50  50  40
GIF  86  70  87  71 /  80  30  50  50
SRQ  86  72  84  72 /  80  40  40  40
BKV  85  68  87  68 /  70  20  50  50
SPG  85  74  85  76 /  80  30  40  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
MARINE...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE




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