Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 250149 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
849 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014

.UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE OF FLORIDA ON THIS
CHRISTMAS EVE. EARLIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED
THANKS TO THE LOSS OF UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICAL SUPPORT AND DIURNAL
HEATING. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ALONG THE
LINE AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT. A SECONDARY LINE OF
SHOWERS TRAILS THE FIRST...AHEAD OF THE DRIER AIR. NOT EXPECTING
ANY LARGE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM EITHER LINE OF SHOWERS OR
ANY TRAILING CONVECTION TONIGHT. FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK...WITH UPDATED ZONES TRANSMITTED TO REMOVE HEADLINES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING WITH SOME SITES SEE
BOUTS OF MVFR AND IFR OVER THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS VFR BY CHRISTMAS MORNING IS EXPECTED...WITH
IMPROVEMENT COMING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WINDS SHOULD LIGHTEN
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH CONVECTION COULD CAUSE VARIABLE GUSTINESS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHERLY ON CHRISTMAS
DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY NEAR VENICE AT 02Z AND MOVING SOUTH.
STILL SOME WINDS GUSTS TO THE 20 KT RANGE AROUND FT MYERS. ALL
AREAS TO THE NORTH ARE BEHAVING NICELY AND TURNED WEST AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. CLOUDS AND LINGERING SHOWERS WILL LAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND BY CHRISTMAS MORNING THE AFFECTS FROM THE
FRONT WILL END. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH INTO THURSDAY AND
VEER AROUND TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER
TO EASTERLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY TO THE
NORTH. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SETUP SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE
HIGH MOVES OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A STORM SYSTEM TAKES
SHAPE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM FOR THE OUTER WATERS NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  61  69  55  75 /  40   0   0  10
FMY  64  74  60  80 /  50   0   0  10
GIF  60  70  54  76 /  60   0   0  10
SRQ  63  70  56  76 /  50   0   0  10
BKV  59  69  46  74 /  30   0   0  10
SPG  62  67  58  73 /  40   0   0  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60
     NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...02/GARCIA
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...13/OGLESBY





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