Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47
000
FXUS62 KTBW 040348
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1148 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
RADAR RETURNS ARE SHOWING THAT CONVECTION IS TAKING LONGER TO
SETUP THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE NDFD FORECAST GRIDS AND
ZONE FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO SHOW A SLOWER START TO THE
STORMS MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE TIMING WILL CONTINUE TO
BE EVALUATED AS THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST PACKAGE GETS UNDERWAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 831 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

UPDATE...
SCATTERED SEA BREEZE SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPED OVER THE INTERIOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE ALREADY MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...A FEW STORMS DEVELOPED OVER THE LOOP
CURRENT AND STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...BUT QUICKLY
DISSIPATED BEFORE REACHING THE COAST.

THE FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY REMAINS THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. REGIONAL METARS SHOW THIS FRONT
IS STILL NORTH OF TALLAHASSEE...AND IS ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CLEAR THE AREA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ALREADY UP TO 1.58
INCHES ON THE KTBW 00Z SOUNDING...AND ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 2 INCHES WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...WHICH IS
RATHER IMPRESSIVE FOR FLORIDA IN MAY. WITH THIS EXTREMELY MOIST
AIRMASS...THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA HAS VIRTUALLY A 100 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SEEING RAIN OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LOOKING AT VARIOUS SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCES
SOLUTIONS...THE CURRENT FORECAST OF STORM TIMING LOOKS
REASONABLE...WITH NO APPARENT REASON FOR MAKING MAJOR CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL AND RADAR TRENDS AND WILL ADJUST
THE RAIN TIMING AS NEEDED.

AVIATION...
A FEW COASTAL ASOS SITES HAVE SHOWN BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS COMING OFF
THE GULF...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDNIGHT. BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE...A BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE TAMPA BAY REGION...WITH
AREAS OF MVFR OR BRIEF IFR CEILINGS AHEAD OF THE STORMS...AND MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IN THE STORMS THEMSELVES. THE STORMS
WILL QUICKLY WORK SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BY SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. BY LATE AFTERNOON...STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE
TAMPA BAY AREA TERMINALS...THOUGH THE THREAT OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

MARINE...
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS AT TIMES THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  79  66  79 / 100 100  10  10
FMY  74  82  67  84 /  30 100  50  10
GIF  72  78  62  80 /  50 100  10  10
SRQ  75  78  65  80 /  70 100  20  10
BKV  70  79  58  78 / 100 100  10  10
SPG  75  79  68  78 / 100 100  10  10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...18/FLEMING
UPPER AIR...74/WYNN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  79  66  79 / 100 100  10  10
FMY  74  82  67  84 /  30 100  50  10
GIF  72  78  62  80 /  40 100  10  10
SRQ  75  78  65  80 /  70 100  20  10
BKV  70  79  58  78 / 100 100  10  10
SPG  75  79  68  78 / 100 100  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...18/FLEMING



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.