Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
FXUS62 KTBW 301136
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
736 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016
.AVIATION...No real changes since the last update. Light winds
will continue through the morning, then turning to the SW/W through
the late morning and afternoon with scattered storms developing and
continuing through around 00z. Winds again become light and variable
overnight. VFR will generally prevail, with MVFR to IFR conditions
in any storms that move over a terminal.
.Prev Discussion... /issued 344 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016/
SHORT TERM (Today-Sunday)...
Surface high pressure will ridge across the area through Sunday.
At the upper levels, ridging will shift NW as an inverted upper
trough/weak TUTT low approaches south FL this evening. The trough
will then move over the peninsula for Sunday with a little dry air
moving in over the Nature Coast. Light S/SE flow will prevail with
an afternoon sea breeze turning winds to the west each afternoon
and evening. This will allow generally scattered thunderstorms to
develop each afternoon and evening with the highest rain chances
across the south. Highs will be in the lower to mid 90s, and lows
will be in the mid 70s north and inland to the upper 70s to near
80 along the coast.
LONG TERM (Sunday Night-Friday)...
Not much change to the ongoing longer-term forecast. Weak upper
ridging will generally remain across the region through the latter
part of the week. At the surface, the Atlantic ridge axis will hold
across the central peninsula, keeping a south to southeast wind in
place, with the sea breeze turning winds onshore along the coast in
the afternoon. Global models are showing some drier air moving over
the forecast area from the southeast for Monday, so rain chances are
only in the isolated range. Otherwise, scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms can be expected each day through the rest of the
Light winds through the morning. Winds will then turn to the SW/W
through the late morning and afternoon with scattered storms
developing and continuing through around 00z. Winds again become
light and variable thereafter. VFR will generally prevail, with
MVFR to IFR conditions in any storms that move over a terminal.
High pressure will ridge across the waters at the surface from the
Atlantic through the period. This will keep a generally S/SE flow
across the waters with an afternoon sea breeze turning winds
onshore each day. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are also
possible each day. Winds and seas will remain below cautionary
levels through the period with winds and seas locally higher near
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 92 78 92 77 / 40 20 30 30
FMY 93 76 91 76 / 40 40 60 20
GIF 94 75 93 75 / 40 30 40 20
SRQ 92 77 91 76 / 30 10 30 30
BKV 93 74 93 73 / 40 20 30 30
SPG 91 79 91 79 / 30 10 20 30
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...74/Wynn
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...14/Mroczka