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000
FXUS62 KTBW 100744
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
244 AM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - THURSDAY)...THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT
IS CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN LOUISIANA AND WILL
REACH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SOON. AT 2 AM...TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ARE IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S WHILE BEHIND THE
FRONT IT DROPS OFF INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. THERE IS A NARROW BAND OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WATERS SOUTH OF LOUISIANA.
OUR LOCAL MODELS HAVE CAPTURED THE FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION FIELD FAIRLY WELL...SO DECIDED TO USE THE HIGHER CAM
POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THIS YIELDS RAIN CHANCES RANGING FROM
ABOUT 20 PERCENT AROUND BROOKSVILLE TO 60 PERCENT IN NORTHERN LEVY
COUNTY.

THE FRONT SHOULD REACH THE NATURE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND SETTLE
INTO THE TAMPA BAY AREA THIS EVENING. MOISTURE BECOMES VERY SHALLOW
AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY BASICALLY VANISHES. WE
WILL BE LUCKY TO SEE ANY MEASURABLE RAIN ANYWHERE SOUTH OF THE
NATURE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR WILL BE
PASSING BY TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION...BUT AT LEAST SOME OF THE
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA BUT
COULD SERVE AS A CATALYST FOR A FEW SHOWERS AROUND FORT MYERS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT TO REMAIN DRY. THE COOLER AIR WILL KEEP THE NATURE
COAST IN THE 70S...BUT WE WILL STILL SEE 80 OR BETTER SOUTH OF TAMPA
BAY.

THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER WE WILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A SECOND PUSH OF
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. WE WILL HAVE A STRONG RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE...ABOUT 1030 TO 1035 MBS SETTLING IN TO THE
NORTH...SO IT WILL GET A BIT BREEZY ON THURSDAY. WITH STRONG
NORTHEAST FLOW THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE LIGHT SHOWERS WOULD BE
INLAND AND SOUTH. IN ANY CASE...ANY SHOWERS THAT DO OCCUR WILL NOT
LAST LONG NOR AMOUNT TO MUCH.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN ON FRIDAY WITH LONGWAVE
TROUGHING EXITING THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. GLOBAL
OPERATIONAL RUNS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
MORE ZONAL OR EVEN SLIGHTLY RIDGED MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
DEVELOPING IN THE TROUGHS WAKE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING FOR
OUR REGION OF THE CONUS. THIS SETUP ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE PARKED
TO OUR NORTH SHOULD PROVIDE SEASONABLE TEMPS AND GENERALLY RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE PATTERN AND FORECAST BECOME MORE COMPLEX OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTS EASTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. IT IS WITH
THIS SYSTEM THAT WE BEGIN TO SEE DIVERGENCE IN THE RELIABLE LONG
RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE
MEAN SEEMS TO BE A REASONABLE BLEND BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS IS A BIT FASTER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH ITS FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH FLORIDA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ONCE AGAIN...A
BLEND IS LIKELY TO BE THE MORE APPROPRIATE FORECAST IN TERMS OF
FRONTAL TIMING AND PRE-FRONTAL POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME DEGREE
OF SURFACE RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD TO OUR NORTH OVER GA/CAROLINAS.
THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE PROVIDING MORE OF A GRADIENT
OVER THE FL PENINSULA AND ROUGHER CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN GULF
COMPARED TO SOME OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE MEMBERS. WILL USE THE GFS
PATTERN...BUT TAPER WINDS BACK SOMEWHAT...AND AWAIT A BETTER
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IN FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS ARE FORESEEN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TIME
PERIOD...WITH THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE FRONT APPEARING
LOW...AND NO SIGNIFICANT RISK OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO PATCHY GROUND FOG AFTER 08-09Z.
TERMINALS AT MOST RISK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF VIS MVFR/IFR VIS
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE KLAL AND KPGD. ANY EARLY MORNING FOG WILL BURN
OFF BY 14Z WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE DAY. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY
TURNING WINDS FROM SOUTH TO WEST AND EVENTUALLY TO THE NORTH THIS
EVENING. A SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE FOR THE I-4 TERMINALS LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING WITH THIS FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO OUR NORTHERN WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL GET CLOSE
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT. NORTH OF TARPON SPRINGS.
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN WINDS ON WEDNESDAY...A SECONDARY FRONT WITH A
STRONGER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY THEN INTO THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY
RESULTING IN A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...TO
EASTERLY ON FRIDAY...THEN SOUTHEASTERLY OR EVEN SOUTHERLY ON
SATURDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT COULD BE APPROACHING THE EASTERN
GULF BY LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HUMIDITIES MAY DROP TO NEAR 35 PERCENT OVER LEVY
COUNTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES BY
MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH. OTHERWISE...NO FIRE WEATHER PROBLEMS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  82  62  79  64 /  10  10  10  10
FMY  85  66  84  66 /  10  10  20  20
GIF  83  59  80  62 /  10  10  10  10
SRQ  83  63  81  65 /  10  10  10  10
BKV  82  56  79  59 /  20  10  10  10
SPG  81  65  78  65 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JILLSON
LONG TERM/AVIATION...MROCZKA