Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 261139
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
739 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 334 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016/

SHORT TERM (Today and Friday)...
A potent upper trough continues to gradually shift eastward
across the Central and Southern Plains regions. Further south and
east, broad upper ridging continues to slowly build in across the
Gulf of Mexico and southeast states. Along the eastern periphery
of this ridge, a weak upper low is meandering across the far
western Atlantic and Bahamas.

For today, A persistent surface high extending from the western
Atlantic into the northern gulf coastal region will continue to
generate low level east to northeasterly flow. Despite several
days of such flow, moisture has been slow to deepen across the
region. This is tied to a large ribbon of dry air from 850-500mb
along the western edge of the upper trough. While low level
easterly flow would generally tend to favor scattered seabreeze-
induced showers and thunderstorms across the west Florida coast,
this area of drier air off the surface will greatly suppress
convective development, and expect today will generally be dry.
With little in the way of cloud cover, expect rather warm
temperatures with highs in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees.

As relatively dry air remains in place tonight, expect another
mainly cloud-free night with lows near to slightly below average
for late May.

Friday will be much the same as today, though additional
moistening may lead to at least a slight chance of showers and a
stray thunderstorm mainly south of I-4 along the Suncoast. Highs
look very similar as well, with upper 80s and low 90s common.

While it won`t be an immediate threat to Florida, all eyes will
be on a developing surface low over the Bahamas and western
Atlantic as we near the weekend. The National Hurricane Center
maintains a low chance of tropical/subtropical development with
this feature over the next two days, with increasing odds of
development thereafter.As this feature looks to be relatively
small and will remain off the Florida east coast, it appears to
have little effect on sensible weather over the next two days,
but we will need to monitor it closely moving into the weekend
and early next week.

LONG TERM...
MID/LONG TERM (Friday night through Wednesday)...An amplified upper
level pattern has set up over the U.S. with deep troughing through
the central U.S. and ridging extending from northwest Bermuda to the
Great Lakes region. A little closer to Florida, a closed upper low
develops north of the Bahamas. This will support a developing
surface low that the hurricane center is keeping a close eye on for
tropical development. Models are in fair agreement with the location
and intensity of this low taking it toward the South Carolina
coastline on Sunday. None of the models have this low coming toward
Florida so not much concern for the system to impact Florida. It
looks as if the weather over the next week in Florida will be
primarily sea breeze driven with afternoon storms and showers
possible each day. Temperatures will remain just around average with
daytime highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and overnight lows in the
upper 60s to low 70s.

AVIATION (06z TAFs)...
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Light east to
northeast winds will increase slightly during the afternoon,
becoming northerly by late afternoon at near-coastal terminals as
the sea breeze gets going. Winds shift back to the east after 00z
Fri.

MARINE...
A large area of high pressure will remain north of the waters,
promoting persistent easterly flow. This will generate modest
easterly wind surge activity during the overnight and early
morning hours through Saturday. This may bring periods of
cautionary level winds, especially for offshore waters. Over the
weekend, the surface pressure gradient will weaken, allowing for
weaker winds over the waters.

FIRE WEATHER...
As relatively dry air remains in place across the region, a few
hours of critically low relatively humidities will be possible
this afternoon. Despite high ERC values at a few counties across
southwestern Florida, durations and winds appear borderline for
red flag headlines. Similar conditions will exist tomorrow, though
gradually increasing moisture should prevent widespread critically
low humidities. As moisture further increases, showers and
thunderstorms will become increasingly possible through the
weekend and into early next week. This should prevent any fire
danger concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  88  70  88  72 /   0   0  10   0
FMY  89  69  90  70 /   0  10  20  20
GIF  87  67  88  69 /   0   0  10   0
SRQ  87  68  88  71 /   0   0  10  10
BKV  89  62  89  64 /   0   0  10   0
SPG  87  72  88  74 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.TBW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...05/Carlisle


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