Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
FXUS62 KTBW 231132
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
732 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016
.AVIATION (12z TAFs)...
VFR flight conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Light north winds will shift more to the northeast this afternoon,
becoming gusty. Winds will then decrease around sunset with clear
.Prev Discussion... /issued 401 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016/
SHORT TERM (Today-Monday)...
Weak mid/upper level ridging will move over Florida while surface
high pressure holds over the southeast states. This will setup a
low level northeast to east flow with Atlantic moisture beginning
to spread west into the peninsula. The moisture will be slow to
return and as is typical this time of year it will become trapped
under the subsidence inversion leading to some scattered to
occasionally broken stratocumulus/altocumulus by Monday afternoon.
This pattern will also lead to a gradual moderating trend with
high temperatures today climbing into the upper 70s to around 80
and then mostly into the lower 80s on Monday. Lows tonight will
remain relatively cool, but not quite as cool as this morning,
and range from the mid 40s far north to the lower 60s near the
coast from around Tampa Bay southward.
MID TERM/LONG TERM (Monday night-Saturday)...
High pressure will continue to be in place across the region
through Tuesday night. A weak front will then move through the
area and may allow for a few showers Wednesday afternoon. High
pressure returns for the rest of the period with moisture
increasing from the south and in the easterly flow. Slight rain
chances will be possible Friday and Saturday afternoons as a
result. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 80s each
day and lows will be warming from the lower to mid 50s north to
the upper 50s to mid 60s central and south on Monday night, to the
60s through the rest of the week.
A northeast to east flow will persist through the week with
nocturnal increases to exercise caution possible for a few hours
Relative humidities will drop below 35 percent for a few hours
across Levy and northern Citrus county today and again on Monday,
but ERC values and winds will remain below critical thresholds.
Otherwise, low level moisture will slowly increase through the
upcoming week keeping relative humidities above 35 percent, but
also leading to some patchy late night fog.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 79 60 81 62 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 80 61 82 62 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 79 58 81 59 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 79 59 82 61 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 78 51 81 51 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 78 62 81 67 / 0 0 0 0
FL...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for Coastal
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/Close
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...24/Hubbard