


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
678 FXUS62 KTBW 160712 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 312 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 312 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Invest 93L is in the process of moving to the west away from the state after trekking across near our northernmost counties, who received plentiful amounts of precipitation. In contrast, most of the area further south saw subdued rainfall, as a drier slot covering much of West Central and Southwest Florida worked to stifle and delay convection until the late afternoon, where scattered storms were relatively short-lived due to the impending sunset. New showers and thunderstorms formed along the coast and will continue to be pushed to the north by onsetting SSE flow, but most are offshore and over the marine zones at the moment, rather than interacting with land. Inland areas should be quiet for the rest of the morning. With the new flow pattern setting in behind the low pressure system, Sea Breeze Flow Regime 7 us expected through the end of the week, which will bring a more historically familiar Florida summertime pattern of showers and thunderstorms mainly occurring in the afternoon. Today, with more SSE flow than SE, the onset of activity should begin first in our southern counties, potentially in the early afternoon, before moving up through our area a few hours later. Convective activity is expected to die down shortly after sunset. Precipitation chances are quite high today with values around 70%-80%, so the Weather Prediction Center has tagged our area with a Marginal Risk (at least 5%) of excessive rainfall, and therefore a possibility of localized flash flooding exists. Climatologically, the distribution of precipitation under this type of flow is typically concentrated along the west coast of the state. This pattern should stay intact through the end of the week, but a slight difference could be a shift to more SE flow, which would lead to more inland coverage. With this pattern of primarily afternoon showers and thunderstorms back in place, highs are expected to rise in the mid 90s for the end of this week and into the weekend due to relatively less cloud cover and rainfall during the peak hours of sunlight. Lows could climb up a few degrees as well towards the mid 70s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 140 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Held VCTS mention for TPA/PIE to open period as overnight lingering convection slides north along the coast, with TEMPO restrictions before VFR expected to return. Otherwise, S/SE flow regime over the area today will favor VFR through the morning, however, a few showers possible prior to main afternoon convection as moisture surges northward across the area, but excluding mention for now due to lower confidence. VC mention beginning early afternoon with highest MVFR/LCL IFR potential mid afternoon through early evening with showers/storms directly affecting terminals before diminishing later in evening. Winds S/SE 5-10 knots overnight into morning before increasing to 10-15 knots with higher gusts mainly in afternoon, diminishing in the evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 312 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 South to southeast winds expected through the remainder of the week as a tropical disturbance slowly moves along the northern Gulf coast and away from the local waters. Winds will remain elevated over the next day or two, potentially approaching cautionary levels, before gradually decreasing into the weekend. Daily showers and storms remain likely, with locally higher winds and seas in/near storms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 312 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Aside from elevated dispersions today mainly across parts of the Nature Coast, typical summertime minimal fire concerns expected with ample moisture remaining in place across the area along with daily shower and storm chances through the forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 91 79 92 79 / 80 30 80 30 FMY 91 76 93 76 / 70 30 80 20 GIF 92 76 93 76 / 70 20 80 10 SRQ 91 76 92 76 / 70 30 80 30 BKV 91 72 93 73 / 80 30 80 20 SPG 88 78 90 79 / 80 30 80 30 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 7 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 7 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Poggiali AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Hurt DECISION SUPPORT/CLIMATE...Close