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000
FXUS65 KTFX 250354
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
950 PM MDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.UPDATE...
Other than some low clouds along/just east of the Rocky Mtn Front,
skies are clear across the region.  Unfortunately, winds are still
gusting in the 40-50 mph range near Cut Bank, so the high wind
warning remains in effect until midnight there.  Likewise, the Red
Flag Warning over Chouteau/Fergus/parts of Blaine County remains in
effect as humidities in some spots have yet to recover above 25%
with winds still gusting 30-40 mph.

Current satellite imagery shows the upper-level low pressure system
causing the gusty winds has drifted more north than east and is
nearly stationary in south-central Alberta.  Forecast models show
the low center drifting gradually eastward tonight, but the longer
that takes, the longer the breezy-to-gusty winds will continue,
especially across the Hiline counties.

Going forecast in good shape.  Only adjustment made was to limit any
mention of precipitation to the northern Rocky Mtn Front and reduce
cloud cover across the region to match current observations.
Waranauskas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Saturday...A closed upper low and associated trof
will continue to move rapidly east across southern Canada
overnight. A surface cold front is currently moving east across
the Hi-Line with thunderstorms developing ahead and along the
front. Some of these storms are strong with gusty winds and hail.
Most of the convective activity should be out of the area by 00z.
Gusty westerly winds are occurring behind the front with the
strongest winds along the Northern Rocky Mountain Front and over
Glacier and Toole Counties. A high wind warning remains in effect
for this area until midnight. The Red Flag Warning also continues
until midnight. Ridging develops on Friday and will last into the
weekend bringing dry and warmer conditions.

Saturday night through Wednesday...Models agree with the idea of
having a strong ridge aloft over the western U.S. For the lower
elevations in the forecast area, highs in the 80s Sunday and Monday
will warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s Tuesday and Wednesday.
The ridge will result in dry conditions with the possible
exception of isolated thunderstorms over the western mountains and
southwest Montana. For fire weather, this pattern will lead to
increased curing of fuels. Winds will be less than 10 mph and
lightning activity should be minimal.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2246Z.
Brisk winds aloft and a tight surface pressure gradient are causing
very strong winds across the Rockies and adjacent plains.  Gusts in
excess of 60 mph are expected through late this evening. Winds will
diminish during the night but become brisk again by noon Friday. VFR
conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The Red Flag Warning continues until midnight for zones 113 and
115. RH values are expected to drop into the teens when winds are
near their strongest values with most locations seeing sustained
winds at 20 to 30 mph with gusts around 40 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  51  78  49  79 /  10  10   0   0
CTB  50  74  47  76 /  10  10  10   0
HLN  53  81  53  83 /  10   0   0   0
BZN  44  81  44  81 /  10   0   0   0
WEY  33  73  34  75 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  44  78  46  80 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  53  80  52  79 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  49  79  49  77 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight Blaine...Chouteau...
Fergus.

HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Eastern Glacier...Toole.

&&

$$

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