Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 271532
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
932 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM EASTERN
ND TO CENTRAL SD AND INTO FAR WESTERN NEB. HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OVER EASTERN MT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE TROF
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE.
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED OVER FAR EASTERN MT.
SHORTWAVE RIDGE STILL TRYING TO HOLD ON OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
INTO MN. SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND MUCH OF
WESTERN SD...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. KUDX
RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT SHOWERS FROM NORTHEAST WY
THROUGH THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND ACROSS NORTHWEST SD. TEMPS RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S OVER NORTHEAST WY AND THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS...TO
THE UPPER 50S AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF MOSTLY 10 TO 20 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

UPDATED FORECAST TO RAISE POPS OVER THE BLACK HILLS AREA INTO
NORTHWEST SD FOR THIS MORNING AND TO ADJUST POPS SOME FOR THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN SD. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY AND A GOOD PORTION OF WESTERN SD...WITH
THEM BEING MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE BLACK HILLS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A TENTH OF AN INCH OR MORE OF
RAINFALL OVER THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR THE AFTERNOON IN MOST AREAS
WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FINALLY
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK RIDGING HOLDING ON OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA...WITH CUT-OFF LOW STILL SPINNING
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. SKIES REMAIN
CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND MUCH OF WESTERN SD. KUDX RADAR
SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS OVER FAR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEAST WY WITH
POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK
HILLS. TEMPERATURES AT 2 AM RANGE FROM THE 30S OVER NORTHEAST WY
AND THE BLACK HILLS TO THE 40S OVER THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS.

TODAY...CUT-OFF UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO TEXAS AS RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST. NORTHERN STREAM TROF WILL SLIDE
ACROSS MONTANA AND ENTER NORTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA LATE IN THE DAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WHERE SOME SUN CAN BE
EXPECTED AGAIN. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S OVER NORTHEAST
WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TO NEAR 70 OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. BEST
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL STRETCH FROM NORTHEAST WY INTO
THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND NORTHWEST SD...AS ENERGY CONTINUES TO
LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROF.

TONIGHT...NORTHERN STREAM TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...FINALLY PUSHING SHOWERS AND MOISTURE TO THE EAST
OVERNIGHT. CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
AREA...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH. WITH RECENT MOISTURE AND SKIES
CLEARING...SOME AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST SD AND
PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WITH LIGHT WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOMING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES LATE IN THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING. LOWS WILL
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST THURSDAY/FRIDAY
LEAVING WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL BRING
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR -SHRA/-TSRA STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE HIT AND MISS WITH UNCERTAIN TIMING GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST
WY/FAR NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL SD DUE TO ST/-RASN. AS A DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THESE CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY AND LIFT/MERGE INTO AN AREA OF
MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE REST OF WESTERN SD. SUBSIDENCE/DRYING
WILL TAKE HOLD LATE TODAY/TONIGHT RESULTING IN MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON


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