Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 010842

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
242 AM MDT Sat Oct 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today Through Sunday Night)
Issued at 242 AM MDT Sat Oct 1 2016

Current surface analysis shows weak low pressure over eastern MT,
with warm front extending south across the Black Hills area into
western Neb. Upper level analysis continues to show stationary low
over the Ohio Valley, with upper low off the Pacific NW coast. A
weak ridge is in place over the plains, with west- southwest flow
in place over the the Rockies and high plains. Satellite shows
some clouds over eastern portions of the cwa, with clear skies
over far western SD and northeast WY. Temps are in the 50s and
lower 60s with winds mostly light from the south or southeast.

The weekend still looks to be warm and mainly dry as ridge holds on
through much of the period. For today, highs will be well above
average, upper 70s to mid 80s across the plains and 70s over the
Black Hills. Mostly sunny skies across the area as clouds move out
of eastern portions of the cwa later this morning. Have removed the
chance for a shower over the northern Black Hills late today, as
chances now look very low. South to southeast winds will continue
through the day.

Warm front slides east of the forecast area on Sunday as a cold
front remains northwest of the area. Upper low moves ashore across
the Pacific NW and digs into the Great Basin region Sunday night.
Stronger southwest flow will push ridge east of the region late
Sunday. Thermal ridge also begins to shift east of the area, with
highs ranging from the lower 70s over northeast WY and the Black
Hills to the mid 80s over portions of southwest and south central
SD. The daytime hours look to be mainly dry, with a shower or storm
possible over the Black Hills and far northwest SD. However, chances
for showers and storms will increase Sunday night, especially over
northeast WY and far western SD, as a shortwave rides northeast
across the area.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Through Friday)
Issued at 242 AM MDT Sat Oct 1 2016

Fast southwesterly flow aloft will develop over the forecast area
on Monday as a strong upper low moves out of southeastern Idaho
and into north central Wyoming, then into northeastern Montana on
Tuesday afternoon. Instability to the east of the upper low will
create chances for showers and thunderstorms over much of the area
on Monday and Monday night with lesser chances for showers from
Tuesday through Wednesday associated with instability due to cold
air aloft and precipitation wrapping around the back side of upper
low as it departs to the northeast. The models differ greatly on
the chances of precipitation on Wednesday night/Thursday morning,
generally trending drier. However, at this time it appears that
there is still a slight chance of precipitation, and temperatures
will be cold enough to include a slight chance of light snow over
the higher elevations of the Black Hills for that period. Dry
weather is expected on Friday and Saturday. Monday will be the
last day of much warmer than average temperatures with highs
remaining slightly cooler than average through the rest of the


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued At 242 AM MDT Sat Oct 1 2016

VFR conditions will continue today and tonight.




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