Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 181049 CCA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
249 AM PST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS A STORM SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
PASS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY GUSTY NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WINDS ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HOWEVER AN ADDITIONAL STORM SYSTEM MAY
AFFECT THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

THERE ARE STILL A FEW SHOWERS AROUND MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN LINCOLN
AND NORTHERN CLARK COUNTIES AS WELL AS IN SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY
EARLY THIS MORNING ON RADAR. OUR AREA REMAINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
DEPARTING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THIS MORNING. ONE LAST JET STREAK
WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND
WORK WITH WHATEVER MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
IS LEFT TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS CLARK, LINCOLN,
MOHAVE AND FAR EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES. WHATEVER WE SEE WILL
NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH AND IN REALITY THE POP GRIDS THAT I CAME UP WITH
LOOK OVERDONE WITH THE AREAL COVERAGE OF POPS, BUT IT IS HARD TO
PINPOINT WHO WILL SEE ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THIS SORT OF
PATTERN. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 5500 FEET. ANY CLOUDS THIS
MORNING SHOULD BREAK UP AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE TOWARD THE
AFTERNOON WITH LESS IN THE WAY OF LOWER AND MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
FOR TONIGHT. BOTH STATISTICAL MOS AND CONTINUITY LOOKED DECENT FOR
TEMPS TODAY AND TONIGHT. IF MCCARRAN DROPS BELOW 40 TONIGHT IT WOULD
ONLY BE THE SECOND TIME THIS MONTH AND 11TH TIME THIS YEAR THIS MARK
HAS BEEN REACHED.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL TRANSITION EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND OPEN THE DOOR FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM TO ADVANCE IN FROM THE PACIFIC
ON FRIDAY. CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL FILL IN FROM THE WEST AND SPREAD EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. OVERALL THIS IS A RATHER MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM
AND WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS EXCEPT ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD BE AROUND 6000 FEET. HIGH TEMPS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO BE NEAR WHAT WE SEE TODAY AS THE THERMAL PROFILE IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGE.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE STORM TRACK WHICH HAS BEEN AFFECTING SOUTHERN NEVADA/SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THE PAST TWO WEEKS WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS CALIFORNIA/NEVADA. BUT
BEFORE IT DOES SO, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEVADA SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE SPREADING AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN INYO, ESMERALDA, CENTRAL NYE
AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE REGION WILL LIE UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN QUITE `DIRTY` WITH CLOUDINESS ON
SUNDAY, MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED MONDAY/TUESDAY. NEXT WAVE OF CLOUDS
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY PRECEDING THE NEXT TROUGH. SURFACE HIGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
NORTH BREEZES DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SOUTH OF HOOVER DAM
SUNDAY-TUESDAY. WATERS ON AREA LAKES WILL BECOME CHOPPY, OTHERWISE
NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

FOR THOSE TRAVELING AROUND CHRISTMAS, TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE PAC NW CHRISTMAS EVE AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN CHRISTMAS
DAY MAY CAUSE SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS. STAY TUNED!
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...UNLESS ANY SHOWERS PASS ACROSS OR NEAR
THE AIRPORT THIS MORNING CIGS SHOULD STAY BETWEEN 6K AND 8K FEET AND
GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY ABOVE 10K FEET. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
TRANSITION TO MORE IN THE SCT RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW CLOUDS
AOB 10K FEET MAY LINGER INTO TONIGHT, HOWEVER ANOTHER ROUND OF
CLOUDS AOA 25K FEET WILL START TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS
LOOK TO TREND TOWARD TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS AT 5 KTS OR LESS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CLARK, LINCOLN,
MOHAVE AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES THROUGH 18Z TODAY AND
THEN ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. UNLESS ANY SHOWERS
PASS ACROSS OR NEAR A TERMINAL THIS MORNING CIGS SHOULD STAY BETWEEN
6K AND 8K FEET AND GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY ABOVE 10K FEET.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD TRANSITION TO MORE IN THE SCT RANGE BY THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW CLOUDS AOB 10K FEET MAY LINGER INTO TONIGHT,
HOWEVER ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDS AOA 25K FEET WILL START TO SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST. WINDS LOOK TO TREND TOWARD TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS
AT 5 KTS OR LESS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...PIERCE

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