Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 282054

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
154 PM PDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions along with above normal temperatures are
expected Monday and Tuesday before a weak system brings a slight
chance of showers and storms back into the forecast Wednesday and

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday.

It`s been a relatively quiet day across the region. A stray
thunderstorm was noted over northern Lincoln county early this
afternoon but has since dissipated. Slight chances of showers/storms
still exist there as well as across northern Mohave County and the
southern Sierra through this afternoon.

High pressure will take control Monday and Tuesday, keeping the
region dry and allowing temperatures to warm above normal once
again. A trough will push into the west by Tuesday afternoon. As a
result, south/southwest winds are likely to increase both Tuesday
and Wednesday. This trough will also pull some moisture back into
the region by Wednesday afternoon, bringing a slight chance of
convection to Mohave County.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Saturday.

The second half of the week will see a broad trough along the West
Coast gradually move inland resulting in an increasingly dry
southwest to west flow and a cooling trend with breezy afternoons.
There is good general agreement among the medium range models with
this pattern, but there are some differences in the details with
respect to moisture advection up through northwest Arizona...
particularly Wednesday through Friday.

An inverted trough is forecast to lift up through northwest Mexico
and into Arizona by Thursday. The ECMWF is farther west with the
moisture than the GFS and depicts precipitation over Mohave County
Thursday and Friday before the West Coast trough progresses inland
and the flow becomes dry westerly. Even though the ECMWF indicates
the best potential for thunderstorms over northwest Arizona would be
Thursday. Then again, if the GFS solution is more correct,
thunderstorm potential would mainly be confined to far northeast
Mohave county and areas to the east. Temperatures will trend
downward a couple degrees each day under the influence of the trough
and southwest winds should kick up each afternoon with areas gusting
15-25 mph.

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Light winds favoring typical diurnal
trends are expected through the period. No significant weather is
expected through at least Tuesday.

For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast
California...Light winds favoring typical diurnal trends are
expected through the period. Outside of a stray thunderstorm over
the high terrain, no significant weather is expected through at
least Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
significant weather according to standard operating procedures.


Short Term/Aviation...Wolcott
Long Term.............Adair

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