Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 231713
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
Issued by National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
913 AM PST Thu Feb 23 2017



SYNOPSIS...It will be unseasonably cool today and Friday under a
dry northwest flow aloft. A series of disturbances will then keep
the region cool and unsettled through the weekend and into early
next week.

&&

.UPDATE...Locally breezy conditions and below normal temperatures
are on track. A few clouds and instability showers still possible
from central Nevada/Utah northward. No updates anticipated until
the afternoon forecast package.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued at 303 AM PST Thu Feb 23 2017/

SHORT TERM...through Saturday night.

Satellite shows cold upper low over northern Utah early this morning
with some cloudiness lingering across southeast Nevada and northwest
Arizona. Broad cyclonic flow will be in place across the Great Basin
today with embedded disturbances leading to a chance of instability
showers from central Nevada/Utah northward. Southern Nevada, eastern
California and northwest Arizona will be dry but cool with
temperatures running about 10 degrees below normal. As one trough
lifts east out of the Great Basin Friday models showing our next
weather maker begins to take shape along the Pacific Northwest
coast. Temperatures won`t be much different than Thursday.

Model in decent agreement dropping trough from the Pacific Northwest
southeast into southern Nevada/California Saturday night. Preceding
the trough look for winds to increase across the Mojave Desert
Saturday afternoon with gustiness persisting areawide behind the
cold front Saturday night. Right now, models showing a broken line
of precip along and behind the cold front Saturday night primarily
affecting south central Nevada, Inyo County and northern Mohave
County. Precip will be falling as snow above 3500-4000 feet. Would
not be surprised to see some flurries possible down to 2500-3000
feet due to wet bulb effect.

LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday.

As mentioned in the previous discussion...model consensus has
trended towards a drier but still cool and unsettled forecast for
the extended range.  Low chances of showers remain Sunday through
Tuesday with breezy and cool conditions expected. In fact, with the
cold trough carved out across the West, temperatures will average
around ten degrees below normal, with overnight lows frequently
falling below freezing above 3,500 feet...and into the upper and 40s
across the lower deserts.   While precipitation potential is reduced
thanks to the trough tracking move over land than over water,
occasional instability driven showers will be possible Sun-Tues and
given the cool airmass, snow levels will occasionally be seen at or
below 4,000 feet, but little accumulation is foreseen at this time.
The trough will begin to shift eastward on Wednesday with rising
heights and gradually warming temperatures expected, but
temperatures will still remain slightly below average through
midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Winds should fluctuate between west-
northwest direction today with speeds 8-12 kts. Tonight winds look
to go more westerly with speeds less than 8 kts. Some residual
cloudiness over the higher terrain during the day.

For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast
California...A strong westerly flow will continue across the Mojave
Desert with gusts 25-30 kts much of the day. A stronger northwest
flow will be funneled down the Owens Valley with gusts to 25 kts at
KBIH. Elsewhere, winds will favor a northwesterly direction with
speeds 10-15 kts. Mainly clears skies are expected.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to
report any significant weather or impacts according to standard
operating procedures.

&&
$$

Short Term/Aviation...McCollum/Pierce
Long Term....McCollum/Outler


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