Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 231118
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
318 AM PST Mon Jan 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A strong low pressure system will bring scattered to
numerous rain showers and snow showers to the region today along
with areas of strong winds. Most mountainous areas will receive
significant snowfall. There is the potential for a few thunderstorms
as well today. Drier, cool and locally breezy conditions are then in
store for Tuesday and beyond.
&&

.SHORT TERM...through Tuesday night

Upper low will move over the area today with the extensive moisture
tap which was over the area Sunday shifting east of the area. There
will still be plenty of moisture around today along with cold air
aloft creating somewhat unstable conditions. This will keep a good
chance of showers over the area along with isolated thunderstorms
with snow levels generally between 3500 and 4000 feet. The models
still suggest the heaviest precipitation potential over Lincoln,
northeast Clark and northern Mohave Counties where a flood watch
continues. The flood watch for Death Valley will expire at 4 am. The
Winter Storm Warning also remain in effect until 4 pm this afternoon
as convective bursts could still lead to periods of heavy snow in
the higher terrain. Areas of strong winds have been observed early
this morning and winds still look they should reach advisory levels
at times today across portions of the Mojave Desert so kept the
advisory going. The upper low will weaken and start shifting east of
the area this evening with precipitation chances decreasing from
west to east. The latest models indicate a decent area of moisture
clipping eastern Lincoln and northern Mohave Counties so I increased
pops there a bit for this evening. The main trough energy will
continue to shift east Tuesday but cool cyclonic flow will keep a
slight chance of snow showers over some of the higher terrain.
Otherwise it will be dry and cool with some northerly breezes
starting to develop.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday

A drier northwest flow takes over for the long term on the back side
of the departing trough. This should allow for a gradual warming of
temperatures, though with some cold nights mixed in, especially
early in the period. As the weekend approaching, a ridge begins
building along the west coast, tilting into British Columbia, with
perhaps a weak trough sliding down the front side of the ridge into
the region. This is expected to be dry, with only breezy winds
expected. North breezes will start to get going down first down the
Colorado River Valley by Thursday, with much of the area seeing
northerly breezes by Friday and likely even Saturday.

Looking ahead beyond the long term...long range guidance indicates
the break from active weather will not last very long beyond the end
of January, with a more active west coast pattern possibly returning
for February. &&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Showers will be around today,
especially in the morning with cigs potentially dropping to 4-5 kft
at times. Cigs should remain above 6 kft this afternoon. South winds
will increase today to around 20 knots and gusting 30-35 knots,
possibly trending more southwesterly this afternoon. Cigs 6-10 kft
will still be possible early this evening before skies clear.
Southwest winds will decrease to 10-15 knots this evening.

For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast
California...Scattered to numerous showers are expected today with
mountains frequently obscured. Cigs 4-6 kft will be common dropping
to 2-3 kft at times. Much of the area will see southwest winds 15-25
knots gusting 30-45 knots today, decreasing tonight and becoming
west to northwest. Shower activity will also decrease tonight with
some clearing expected.&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
rain or snow amounts through this evening as a storm moves through
the region.
&&

$$

Short Term/Aviation...Harrison
Long Term...Steele

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