Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 251106
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
405 AM PDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A fast moving low pressure trough will produce showery
weather and gusty winds today then pull away to the east tonight
leaving dry and mild conditions Sunday. A few more rounds of showers
and gusty winds are expected next week as additional disturbances
pass across the region.
&&

.SHORT TERM...through Monday night.

The trough and associated moisture plume moving overhead look more
impressive on satellite loops than what is actually occurring. Some
light precipitation returns were showing up on radar through from
central San Bernardino County up through southeast Inyo County and
into nearby southwest Nevada zones. Surface obs from Bicycle Lake to
Desert Rock were picking up clouds bases of 8-12 Kft but no
precipitation yet. The latest HRRR indicates this south to north
oriented  band of light showers or virga will quickly move across
Clark County between by 5 AM and 8 AM and the Vegas Valley may see
some light precip. Lincoln County will see more widespread showers
through about noon then slowly diminishing in the afternoon. The
cold pool will move over southern Nevada this afternoon and we
should see scattered showers over the Spring Mountains which may
blow over parts of the Las Vegas Valley then showers will quickly
diminish late this afternoon and early evening. Southwest winds
generally gusting 20-25 mph will veer to the northwest later this
morning and afternoon on the back side of the trough and highs will
be several degrees lower than Friday`s readings.

The progressive pattern will provide a shortwave ridge with fair
weather quickly moving over the area tonight and Sunday before a
colder and potent closed low slides down across southern Nevada from
the Pacific Northwest Monday and Monday night. The ECMWF has come
around to the slower and deeper GFS solution and the most notable
effect this system will have is gusty north winds of 30-40 mph
developing over southern Nevada behind it late Monday night. There
will also be a chance of showers across south central Nevada and
northwest Arizona Monday. Stay tuned for additional details and
potential for significant winds from this system.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday.

Models are in fairly good agreement Tuesday showing an upper low
over Arizona exiting to the east. We may still see a few light
showers Tuesday morning across the far eastern portions of the
forecast area, but the majority of the shower activity is expected
to be over by at least mid day. In its wake we will see gusty north
winds across much of the forecast area and especially down the
Colorado River where the strongest winds will occur. This will also
bring in another reinforcing shot of cooler air to the region. High
pressure will quickly build over the region Wednesday, but it still
looks like gusty north winds will persist at least over the eastern
half of the area. We will also see a few degrees warming under the
ridge with temperatures just a few degrees above normal.

Another system is expected to impact the area Thursday and Friday,
but the models are vastly different in the timing and position of
the upper low. The GFS Thursday afternoon has the low over WA/OR
while the ECMWF places it over northeast Nevada. Even the Canadian
model has the low over central Nevada. Occuring to the ECMWF and
Canadian models we could see showers entering our northern zones as
early as Thursday afternoon while the GFS doesn`t bring any precip
into the area until Friday morning. The one thing the models do
agree on is a slower onset of the initial precipitation and have
backed off on precipitation Thursday morning, but have generally
left everything else alone after that. Outside of the Canadian which
brings the low directly over southern Nevada, the EC and GFS both
slide the low center across eastern Nevada and into Northern
Arizona. This track would bring precipitation chances to mainly the
eastern zones with gusty wind being the main factor. If this patten
does take shape then we could see some rather gusty north winds
toward the end of next week, especially down the river. With the
continued active pattern through the extended, temperatures will
remain close to normal.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...A band of showers moving over Clark
County will produce some brief showers and ceilings 6-8 Kft in the
terminal area through about 7 AM before it pulls away to the east.
Cloud bases of 8-10 Kft will persist today along with some showers
near the Spring Mountains. Southwest winds gusting 15-20 knots will
become northwest later this morning and should persist through the
day then become light after sunset with clouds clearing out.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...A trough moving across the region today will produce
scattered to numerous showers across southern Nevada and northwest
Arizona. Winds will become west to northwest generally 10-20 knots
late this morning through this afternoon. West winds gusting 25-30
knots can be expected across the western Mojave Desert. The system
will pull away this evening leaving light winds and clearing skies
through Sunday morning.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

Short Term/Aviation...Adair
Long Term...Gorelow

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