Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 232021
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
120 PM PDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO MAINLY MOHAVE AND SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HARDLY A CLOUD IN SKY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
AS THIS UNCHARACTERISTICALLY DRY JULY CONTINUES. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN
TODAY IS THE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES THAT PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE A VERY SLIGHT (READ: A
DEGREE OR TWO) COOLDOWN STARTS EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO EXPAND AND REPOSITION ITSELF ON MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
A MORE FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR SOME LOW GRADE MONSOON MOISTURE TO
BEGIN WORKING BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BE MOST
IMPACTFUL FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES, SPECIALLY MOHAVE COUNTY AND SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTIES, AND LESS SO FOR AREAS FURTHER NORTH . THE
NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BY THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER CENTRAL NEVADA WHICH WILL ESSENTIALLY
BLOCK THE NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT, AND SHUNT THE MORE FAVORABLE
EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF OUR REGION.  THE RESULT WILL BE 20-30 PERCENT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 ALMOST EVERY
DAY NEXT WEEK, WITH LOWER CHANCES FURTHER NORTH.  SOME DAYS WILL
LIKELY END UP BEING MORE ACTIVE THAN OTHERS, AND RIGHT NOW
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY ARE LOOKING LIKE THE MOST FAVORABLE DAYS FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

SINCE TODAYS MODEL RUNS ARE TRENDING SLIGHTLY DRIER FOR NEXT WEEK,
TEMPERATURES MAY END UP BEING HIGHER AND WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF EXCESSIVE HEAT FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS
OF THE WEEK.  THIS HEAT MAY BE EXACERBATED BY ELEVATED HUMIDITY
LEVELS.  THEREAFTER, A MORE SUBSTANCIAL INCREASE IN MONSOON MOISTURE
IS ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS, BUT HARD TO HAVE TOO MUCH CONFIDENCE
AFTER SO MANY TEASES. STAY TUNED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A MODEST INCREASE IN MONSOON MOISTURE MAY PROMOTE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY, AND
EXPAND ACROSS SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED, AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE
HOT.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES THIS EVENING BUT
WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET. WEATHER CONDITIONS TOMORROW WILL BE QUITE
SIMILAR TO TODAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...TYPICAL HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH WINDS
FAVORING DIURNAL TRENDS. WINDS MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES NEAR KDAG THIS
EVENING AND SLOWLY SUBSIDE IN THE EARLY MORNING. VERY SIMILAR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT NEEDED
TODAY OR TONIGHT. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE MORE NECESSARY NEXT
WEEK. &&

$$

OUTLER

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