Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 030030
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Jul 03 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 2376 (N13E32, Eao/beta)
produced a C3/1n flare at 02/1530 UTC which was the largest event of the
period.  Region 2378 (S15E68, Cso/beta) appeared to undergo minor
development as it rotated into view on the east limb.  The remaining
four regions on the visible disk were either stable or in decay.

An eruptive prominence on the northeast limb was observed in SDO/AIA 304
imagery beginning at 02/1700 UTC and the associated coronal mass
ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery
beginning at 02/1800 UTC.  This event is not expected to impact the
Earth.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare activity over the next three days (03-05
Jul).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period.  A
CME from behind the west limb at 01/1436 UTC produced a greater than 10
MeV proton enhancement which peaked at 5 pfu at 02/0030 UTC but slowly
declined throughout the day, returning to near-background levels by the
end of the period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels on days one and two (03-04 Jul).  The onset of a co-rotating
interaction region (CIR) late on day two/early on day three (05 Jul) is
expected to prompt a flux decrease to normal to moderate levels.  The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to return to background
levels by the end of day one (03 Jul) and remain at background levels
for the remainder of the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected an ambient solar wind environment.
Solar wind velocity decreased from initial values near 425 km/s to
end-of-period values near 350 km/s.  IMF total field values were steady
near 4 nT and Bz was predominately northward throughout the period.  The
phi angle was steady in a positive (away from the Sun) solar sector
orientation.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at background levels on day
one (03 Jul) through late on day two (04 Jul).  By day three (05 Jul)
the onset of a CIR followed by coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS)
influence is expected to prompt a solar wind increase.  The recurrent
negative polarity CH HSS produced solar wind speeds in excess of 600
km/s last rotation.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet this period under a nominal solar wind
environment.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on day one (03 Jul) under
an ambient solar wind environment.  Quiet to unsettled field activity is
expected late on day two (04 Jul) due to the onset of a CIR.  The onset
of a recurrent negative polarity CH HSS is expected to cause periods
of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions on day three (05 Jul).



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