Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 030031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 May 03 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels due to an impulsive C3 flare observed
at 02/0842 UTC from Region 2540 (N22E24, Bxo/beta). Associated with this
event was a Type II radio emission with an estimated shock velocity of
1,800 km/s. Beginning at 02/0912 UTC, SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery observed a
narrow, slow-moving CME off the NE limb. Analysis of this CME is
ongoing. Since the C3 flare, Region 2540 decreased in area to mostly a
plage region.

Region 2539 (N16E07, Eai/beta) exhibited umbral area dissipation within
its intermediate spots and an overall decay in the regions area. Region
2536 (N16W26, Dao/beta) displayed intermediate spot decay. New Region
2541 (N04E64, Bxo/beta) rotated onto the disk. The remainder of the disk
and limb was quiet and stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in
available coronagraph imagery; pending analysis and model results of the
02/0912 UTC CME.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for
C-class flares on day one (03 May) increasing to likely on days two and
three (04-05 May) due to the return of old active Region 2529 (N10,
L=344 on 03 May.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
with a peak flux of 874 pfu observed at 02/1650 UTC. The greater than 10
MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels all three days of the forecast period (03-05 May). The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background
levels.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reflected
continued enhanced conditions. Wind speeds and a negative phi angle
suggested influence from a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind began
the period at about 450 km/s and persisted at this speed through 02/1600
UTC when speeds gradually increased to speeds near 580 km/s by 02/2140
UTC, and remained at about 550 km/s through periods end.

Total magnetic field strength ranged between 4 to 9 nT while the Bz
component was predominantly southward through the period with a maximum
of -8 nT observed at about 02/0100 UTC. Some brief northward
fluctuations to +6 nT were observed throughout the period. Phi angle
continued in a predominately negative orientation.

.Forecast...
Solar wind enhancements are expected to persist through early on day one
(03 May) with a trend towards background conditions expected later on
day one through days two and three (04-05 May).


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field reached minor storm levels (G1-Minor) during the
02/0000-0300 UTC synoptic period and major storm levels (G2-Moderate)
during the 02/0300-0600 UTC synoptic period in response to prolonged
periods of southward Bz early on 02 May. Unsettled to active levels were
observed for most of the remaining UTC day, until the 02/2100-2400 UTC
synoptic period, when G1 conditions were reached again in reaction to
the continued high speed solar winds and prolonged southward IMF
orientation.

.Forecast..
The geomagnetic field is expected to react with active levels early on
day one (03 May), before becoming quiet to unsettled afterwards, as
geomagnetic response to a slightly less favorable solar wind
environment, diminishes. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for days
two and three (04-05 May) as the solar wind trends to near-background
levels.


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