Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX12 KWNP 270031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 Sep 27 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2597 (S14W40, Dac/beta-gamma)
was the only numbered region on the disk, but remained inactive. The
region exhibited spot and penumbra growth within its intermediate spots.
The remainder of the disk and limb was quiet and stable. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class
flare activity throughout the forecast period (27-29 Sep).

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels while the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels on days one and two (27-28 Sep). Moderate to high flux
levels are expected on day three (29 Sep) due to an enhanced solar wind
environment from a geoeffective CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast
period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters indicated possible influence of a small coronal
hole high speed stream from a coronal hole located near the west
limb. Total magnetic field strength ranged between 6-11 nT. The Bz
component was quite variable over the past 24 hours. Strong northward
(+11 nT) and strong southward (-10 nT) orientations were observed. Wind
speeds indicated a gradual increase through the period. The period began
with speeds near 400 km/s with a gradual increase to about 475 km/s
observed by 26/2200 UTC. Winds speeds remained fairly steady at this
speed through periods end.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to remain elevated but steady at
current parameters through day one (27 Sep) before becoming further
enhanced as a positive polarity CH HSS is expected to influence the
near-Earth space environment on days two and three (28-29 Sep). This
feature is recurrent and produced solar wind speeds near 800 km/s last
rotation.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field reached active conditions today as the result of a
CH/HSS from the small coronal hole near the west limb.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly unsettled to active
levels on day one (27 Sep), with isolated periods of G1 (Minor) storm
levels due to CH HSS influences. Unsettled to active conditions are
expected to continue into day two (28 Sep), before the onset of the
larger, northern polar crown connected CH HSS. Isolated periods of G1-G2
(Minor-Moderate) storm levels are possible for late in the day, day two
as well as throughout day three (29 Sep). A G2 Watch has been issued for
days two and three.



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