Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
FXXX12 KWNP 040031

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Oct 04 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity decayed to low levels (below R1-Minor). Numerous weak
C-class flares were observed from Regions 2420 (N14W91, Hax/alpha), 2422
(S20W89, Dko/beta) and 2427 N18W30, Dai/beta-gamma). Both Regions 2420
and 2422 continued their transit around the west limb making spot
analysis difficult. Region 2427 showed slight growth in its trailer
spots including some magnetic mixing.

A 36 degree long filament was observed in GONG and SDO/AIA 304 imagery
erupting in the NE quadrant. The NW to SW oriented filament was centered
near N38E14 and appeared to lift off between about 02/1500-2200 UTC.
LASCO C2 imagery observed a faint, slow-moving CME off the NNE limb,
first visible at 02/2324 UTC. This CME is not expected to have an
Earth-directed component. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed
during the past 24 hours.

As both Region 2420 and 2422 transit the west limb, solar activity is
expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares all three
days (04-06 Oct) and a slight chance for an M-class (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) flare on day one (04 Oct).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels during the
period while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected be at normal to
moderate levels on days one and two (04-05 Oct). Moderate to high levels
are possible by day three (06 Oct) after passage of the 30 Sep CME and
subsequent enhanced solar wind speeds. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux is expected to remain below the S1-Minor threshold.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters remained slightly enhanced throughout the period.
Solar wind velocity averaged about 385 km/s with an isolated maximum
speed of 460 km/s observed at 03/0500 UTC. Total field strength (Bt)
ranged between 5-11 nT while the Bz component varied between +/- 6 nT.
The phi angle remained in a predominantly positive (away from the Sun)
sector with some brief periods of negative (toward the Sun) orientation
between 03/1650-1910 UTC.

Further enhancements in solar wind speeds are expected early on day one
(04 Oct) with the potential arrival of the 30 Sep CME. Enhancements are
expected to continue through day two (05 Oct) with a slow return to
nominal levels throughout day three (06 Oct).


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels,
with periods of minor storming (G1-Minor) likely on day one (04 Oct),
due to the possible arrival of the 30 Sep CME. Conditions are likely to
continue at unsettled to active levels throughout day two (05 Oct) due
to residual CME effects. By day three (06 Oct), quiet to unsettled
levels are expected as CME effects wane. is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.