Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX12 KWNP 220030
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Nov 22 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low with no spots present on the visible disk.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain very low all three days (22-24
Nov).


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels on day one (22 Nov) and increase to high levels on days two
and three (23-24 Nov) due to CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux is expected to continue at background levels all three days.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative of CIR passage and onset of a
positive polarity CH HSS. Total IMF strength began the period at about
10 to 15 nT before decreasing to end of period values of 4 to 5 nT. The
Bz component underwent early periods of prolonged and pronounced
southward direction. Solar wind increased from early period speeds of
425 km/s to 600-625 km/s midway through the period. Speed slowly
declined after about 21/1600 UTC to end of period values near 575 km/s.
The phi angle was positive (away from Sun).

.Forecast...
Solar wind speed is anticipated to remain elevated, while slowly
decreasing on days one and two (22-23 Nov), due to continuing, but
waning CH HSS influences. Day three (24 Nov) is likely to see solar wind
speed decrease back below 400 km/s as the CH HSS rotates away from
geoeffective position.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled conditions to minor
(G1-Minor) storm levels due to CIR and CH HSS effects.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to respond with primarily unsettled to
active conditions, with a chance for G1 (Minor) storming, on day one (22
Nov) due to continuing effects of the CH HSS. Day two (23 Nov) is
anticipated to see an overall planetary response of quiet to unsettled
conditions, with a chance for active levels as CH HSS effects wane. Day
three (24 Nov) is expected to become quiet due to a return to a slower
wind speed regime.



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