Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 220031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Sep 22 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels.  The largest flare observed during the
period was a long duration C5/1f at 21/1153 UTC from plage Region 2166
(N11W55).  Coronal darkening was observed just after the flare in
SDO/AIA imagery at 21/1238 UTC indicating the potential for a coronal
mass ejection (CME).  SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery was inconclusive as a
prominence eruption occurred at 21/1139 UTC obscuring image analysis. We
are waiting on further STEREO imagery to confirm.

Other activity included an approximate 38 long filament, centered near
N30E15, observed lifting off the visible disk in SDO/AIA 304 imagery
from 20/2348 - 21/0427 UTC.  There was a narrow CME off the NE limb in
SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 21/1024 UTC that appears to be
associated with the event.  The CME was determined to not have a
geoeffective component.

Slight growth was observed in Region 2172 (S11E63, Ekc/beta-delta) and
in the intermediate area of Region 2171 (S10E39, Eai/beta-gamma).
Region 2172 continued to rotate around the SE limb as larger, more
complex spot group with approximately 320 millionths in area.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
(R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) and a slight chance for an X-class flare
(R3-Strong or greater) for the next three days (22-24 Sep).  Region 2172
is the most likely source for significant flare production.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
background levels and the greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at or near background levels (Below S1-Minor) for the next three
days (22-24 Sep). The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over the next three
days (22-24 Sep).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters indicated the waning influence of a negative
polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).  Solar wind speed
declined from a maximum observed value of 637 km/s at 21/0344 UTC to end
of period values near 450 km/s.  Total field ranged from 1 nT to 5 nT,
while the Bz component was variable between +5 nT and -3 nT.  Phi angle
deviated from a mostly negative (towards) sector to positive (away)
between approximately 21/0800 UTC and 21/1700 UTC.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to decline towards
nominal levels through early on day one (22 Sep).  By days two through
three (23-24 Sep) enhancements of the magnetic field component are
possible due to potential activity associated with a solar sector
boundary crossing (SSBC) followed by a co-rotating interaction region
(CIR) in advance of a positive polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on day one (22
Sep).  Quiet to unsettled periods with a chance for active periods is
expected for days two through three (23-24 Sep) due to potential
activity associated with a SSBC followed by a CIR in advance of a
positive polarity CH HSS.



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