Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 281231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 Aug 28 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low and only background flare activity was
observed this period.  Region 2581 (N12E02, Cai/beta) was mostly stable
throughout the period while Region 2580 (S18W12, Hrx/alpha) showed signs
of minor decay.  Region 2582 (N08W44, Dao/beta) exhibited area and spot
growth.  No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph
imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain very low with a chance for C-class
flares over the next three days (28-30 Aug).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period,
peaking at 2,334 pfu at 27/1705 UTC.  The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on
days one and early on day two (28-29 Aug) before decreasing to normal
levels on day three (30 Aug) in response to enhanced geomagnetic
activity.  The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at
background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected a nominal solar wind regime.  Solar wind
speeds decreased from initial values near 440 km/s to end-of-period
values near 400 km/s.  Bt was steady near 5 nT and Bz was predominately
northward through about 28/0300 UTC, then began to slowly trend
southward to about -3 nT.  Phi angle was oriented in a mostly negative
sector (towards the Sun).

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at background levels on day
one (28 Aug).  A solar wind enhancement is expected after midday on day
two through day three (29-30 Aug) due to the influence of a positive
polarity CH HSS.  Wind speeds in excess of 550 km/s are possible as this
high speed solar wind stream becomes geoeffective.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet throughout the period under a nominal
solar wind regime.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on day one (28 Aug) under
a background solar wind environment.  G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are
likely on days two and three (29-30 Aug) due to the influence of a
positive polarity CH HSS.


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