Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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402
FXXX12 KWNP 131231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 Feb 13 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 2497 (N13W28,
Fac/beta-gamma-delta) was responsible for multiple C-flares over the
period.  The largest was a C6/Sf flare at 12/1721 UTC.  Slight decay was
observed in the smaller intermediate and trailing spots of Region 2497,
however it still retained its magnetic complexity.  The rest of the
spotted regions were in decay.  No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in
available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for M-class
flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) over the next three days (13-15 Feb) due
primarily to the flare potential of Region 2497.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels on days one and three (13 & 15 Feb) with the potential
to reach high levels on day two (14 Feb).  There is a slight chance for
the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 levels over the next
three days (13-15 Feb) due to the complexity and position of Region
2497.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters indicated a solar sector boundary change into a
positive (away) sector around 13/0150 UTC. followed by a weak increase
solar wind speed and temperature, possibly indicative of a weak CH HSS.
Solar wind speed increased from near 350 km/s early in the period to
around 400-420 km/s.  Total field was elevated between 10 nT and 20 nT
with the Bz component mostly north between -14 nT and 18 nT.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected remain slightly enhanced on day one
(13 Feb).  Day two (14 Feb) is likely to see enhancement in solar wind
speeds and total field strength in response to the anticipated onset of
the 11 Feb CME late on day two to early on day three (15 Feb).  Enhanced
conditions are expected to persist through day three.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels, possibly under
the influence of a weak CH HSS late in the period.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for
the rest of day one (13 Feb) due to continued weak CH HSS effects.  Day
two (14 Feb) is expected to reach minor storm (G1-Minor) levels due to
the onset of the anticipated 11 Feb CME late in the day.  Unsettled to
(G1) minor storm levels are expected to continue into day three (15 Feb)
as CME effects persist.



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