Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 310030
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Aug 31 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 2403 (S15W89, Dao/beta),
produced the largest flare of the period, a long duration M1 at 30/0330
UTC, as it continued to rotate around the west limb. Region 2405
(S20E09, Bxo/beta) and Region 2406 (N03E22, Axx/alpha) remained
relatively simple and inactive through the period. New Region 2407
(N15W48, Cro/beta) emerged and was numbered during the period. No
Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels on day one (31 Aug) with
a chance for M-class flares (R1-Minor). Activity is expected to decrease
on days two and three (01-02 Sep) to only a chance for C-class flares as
Region 2403 rotates further around the west limb.


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels with a
peak flux of 1552 pfu at 30/1740 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels with a chance for high levels on day one (31 Aug). A
chance for high levels persists early on day two (01 Sep) until the
arrival of the co-rotating interaction region (CIR) ahead of a recurrent
positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Normal to
moderate levels are expected for the remainder of day two and into day
three (02 Sep). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be at
background levels (Below S1-Minor) as Region 2403 rotates further around
the SW limb.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, indicated
waning effects of a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds were
around 465 km/s at the beginning of the period and trended down to
around 415 km/s by the end of the period. Total field steadily decreased
from around 7 nT to 4 nT while the Bz component has maintained a
predominantly northward direction. Phi was mostly negative (towards)
over the past 24 hours.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to settle back to nominal
levels until the arrival of an anticipated solar sector boundary change
(SSBC) and CIR ahead of the anticipated positive polarity CH HSS midday
on day two (01 Sep). Solar wind parameters are then expected to be
enhanced through day three (02 Sep) with speeds increasing to near 600
km/s.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels
through midday on day two (01 Sep). Activity is expected to increase to
unsettled to minor (G1-Minor) storm levels by mid to late on day two and
continue into day three (02 Sep), as
a SSBC followed by a CIR preceding the next CH HSS is expected to become
geoeffective.



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