Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 260031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 Jul 26 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. Region 2567
(N05, L=167) produced the largest solar event of the period from just
beyond the west limb, a C1 flare at 25/0909 UTC. There are currently no
numbered sunspot regions on the disk and no Earth-directed coronal mass
ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class
flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)
Radio Blackouts) on day one (26 Jul), but expected decrease to be very
low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days two and three
(27-28 Jul).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels
throughout the period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels over the next three days (26-28 Jul) and the greater
than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels
throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters indicated waning effects from a weak transient
arrival on 25 Jul, possibly associated with flare activity late on 20
July to early on 21 July. Solar wind speed averaged near 450 km/s for
the beginning of the period before slowly decreasing throughout the day
to end-of-period values near 400 km/s. Total field strength decreased
from near 10 nT to approximately 2 nT by the end of the period. The Bz
component remained mostly southward, seeing a maximum deflection of -6
nT. Phi angle was mostly negative.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to be nominal early on day one (26
Jul). By mid-to-late day on day one, a CH HSS is expected to become
geoeffective and solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced
through days two and three (27-28 Jul).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels for most of the
period in response to the aforementioned transient feature.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels
throughout the forecast period (26-28 Jul). Geomagnetic field conditions
are expected to become enhanced mid-to-late on day one (26 Jul) as the
anticipated CH HSS becomes geoeffective. The field is expected to remain
enhanced through days two and three (27-28 Jul) as CH HSS effects
continue.



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