Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX12 KWNP 200031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Feb 20 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at very low levels.  Slight decay was observed in
Region 2637 (S03E61, Axx/alpha).  A new spot group is emerged around
the NE limb and will be numbered as soon as region reports come in.  The
filament eruption near N08E02, that occurred at 19/0525 UTC in
SDO/imagery, had an associated faint NE directed CME observed in LASCO
C2 imagery at 19/0648 UTC.  WSA-Enlil analysis of the event showed a
possible glancing blow arriving mid to late on 22 Feb.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels with a chance
for C-class flare activity over the next three days (20-22 Feb).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels this
period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels with a chance for high levels over the next three
days (20-22 Feb).  The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to
persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued under the influence of a positive
polarity CH HSS.  Solar wind speed ranged from 535-618 km/s.  Total
field ranged from 2-7 nT while the Bz component was between +5/-4 nT.
Phi angle was oriented in a predominantly positive (away) sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to be enhanced throughout
the period (20-22 Feb) under a positive polarity CH HSS.  By mid to late
on day three, a possible glancing blow from the 19 Feb CME may further
enhance the magnetic field; however, it is unlikely to cause any
significant enhancements in solar wind speed.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on
days one and two (20-21 Feb) as CH HSS effects continue.  By mid to late
on day three (22 Feb), a possible glancing blow from the 19 Feb CME will
likely cause unsettled to active conditions.



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