Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 012121
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0320 PM CST SUN MAR 01 2015

VALID 031200Z - 091200Z

A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON D3/TUE. THE BULK OF THE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH A
WEAK REMNANT OF THE TROUGH POSSIBLY LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THESE FEATURES.  MEANWHILE...AN
UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC COAST TO THE WEST
OF ANY REMNANT TROUGH...WHILE A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE MUCH OF THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

IN A RELATIVE SENSE...THE GREATEST FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED
ON D3/TUE...AS STRONG LOW-MIDLEVEL SWLY FLOW PROMOTES DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF NM INTO W TX. HOWEVER...COOL TEMPERATURES
AND GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FUEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE
MAGNITUDE OF THIS THREAT.

FOR D4/WED AND BEYOND...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SRN CA INTO THE SOUTHWEST...BUT GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
AND UNFAVORABLE FUELS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER
THREAT. ELSEWHERE...THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE AS
COOL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS.

..DEAN.. 03/01/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



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