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FNUS28 KWNS 212040
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0239 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

Valid 231200Z - 291200Z

An active southern-stream is expected through at least mid-week with
several shortwave troughs traversing eastward within this belt of
enhanced mid-upper flow extending across the southern tier of the
CONUS. The first system will likely be a mature cyclone over the
mid-Atlantic by the start of the period (12Z D3/Monday) while
shortwave ridging moves across the Plains ahead of the next
shortwave trough moving through southern CA and the Southwest. This
shortwave trough is then expected to track northeastward across the
central Plains and mid/upper MS valley, accompanied by a strong jet
streak (100+ kt at 500 mb). Northeastward progress of this strong
system, coupled with another shortwave trough moving across southern
CA and the Southwest, will result the development of broad troughing
by 12Z D5/Wednesday, extending from the Great Lakes southwestward
into southern CA. This broad upper trough is then expected to slowly
track eastward across the CONUS while gradually losing amplitude.
Some re-amplification of this trough appears possible late in the
week.

...D3/Monday and D4/Tuesday: Portions of the southern Plains...
Lee cyclogenesis across the central High Plains will contribute to a
tight surface pressure gradient over the southern High Plains,
which, when coupled with increasing westerly flow aloft, will
support breezy conditions. Downslope effects within an antecedent
warm and dry airmass will help push temperatures into the upper 60s
to mid 70s (10 to 15 degrees above-average) with min RH values in
the upper teens to low 20s. Windy conditions are expected again on
D4/Tuesday, although a stronger pressure gradient and further
increase in the wind speeds aloft will likely contribute to even
stronger winds (i.e. sustained from 30-40 mph with gusts up to 50
mph). Temperatures may be a bit cooler but minimum RH values are
still expected to near 15 to 20 percent.

Overall, meteorological conditions are currently expected to be near
critical thresholds on these two days. However, above-average
precipitation over the past two weeks has moistened fuels, with
uncertainty on the degree of drying before D3/Monday.  As a result,
will maintain 40% areas with this outlook, although upgrades may be
needed in future outlooks if fuel guidance indicates drier than
expected fuels and/or model guidance suggests warmer and drier
conditions.

...D6/Thursday - D8/Saturday: Southern CA...
A strong offshore gradient may develop during the second half of the
week and into the weekend, resulting in breezy and warm conditions
across the region. However, above-average precipitation over the
past two weeks is expected to limit fuel receptibility and temper
any potential fire weather risk.

..Mosier.. 01/21/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$



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