Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 292058
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

VALID 311200Z - 061200Z

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S./SOUTHWEST CANADA AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD ON D3/SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHILE ANOTHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE NORTHWEST
INTO THE CNTRL/NRN ROCKIES FROM D4/MONDAY THROUGH D6/WEDNESDAY. A
THREAT OF STRONG WINDS/LOW RH AND AT LEAST ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

...GREAT BASIN INTO THE CNTRL/NRN ROCKIES...
ON D3/SUN...MODERATE LOW-LEVEL WLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AMIDST A VERY DRY AIRMASS FROM PORTIONS OF NRN NV/SERN ORE INTO SRN
ID/NRN UT/SWRN MT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA...RESULTING IN AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. SOME PORTION OF THIS AREA MAY REQUIRE A CRITICAL UPGRADE
AS CONFIDENCE IN THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELD INCREASES. IN
ADDITION...AT LEAST ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
THE ERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CNTRL/NRN ROCKIES ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE UPPER TROUGH/ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

ON D4/MON...MODERATE LOW-LEVEL WLY FLOW SHOULD BE MAINTAINED FROM
SERN ORE/NRN NV INTO SRN ID...AS THE NEXT STRONG UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED
THREAT OF ELEVATED/POTENTIALLY CRITICAL WIND/RH CONDITIONS. SOME DRY
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL EXIST FROM CNTRL/NRN NV EWD INTO WRN
WY...ON THE NRN FRINGE OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE SWRN
CONUS.

FOR D5/TUE INTO D6/WED...ELEVATED/POTENTIALLY CRITICAL WIND/RH
CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONG
UPPER TROUGH MOVING EWD FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES/PLAINS AREA. A DRY THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST
/PRIMARILY ON D5/TUE ACCORDING TO CURRENT MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE/
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT...GIVEN STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW/FAST STORM MOTIONS AND ONLY
MARGINAL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.

FOR D7/THU AND D8/FRI...SOME DECREASE IN THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS
POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THOUGH THE DETAILS ARE
UNCLEAR GIVEN DECREASING PREDICTABILITY AT THIS RANGE.

..DEAN.. 07/29/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$



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