Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 031658
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

VALID 031700Z - 041200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF ERN/CNTRL/SRN NV...

THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAINS ON
TRACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN/CNTRL/SRN NEVADA.  ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO CRITICAL AND ELEVATED DELINEATIONS.
SEE FORECAST RATIONALE IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

..JIRAK.. 09/03/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0340 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WRN CONUS...WHILE
UPPER RIDGING STAYS CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES AND GREAT
BASIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A STALLED FRONT EXTENDING
FROM NRN CA NEWD INTO SRN ID AND MT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE
APPRECIABLY ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FOUR CORNERS/WRN CO REGION.

...PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES...
AS TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WARM INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN...SLY TO SWLY SFC WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20-30 MPH AS ENHANCED WINDS ALOFT ARE PROMOTED TO THE
SFC VIA DIURNAL MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. RH VALUES ARE LIKEWISE
EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW CRITICAL VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ERN/CNTRL/SRN NV...GENERALLY INTO THE 8-15 PERCENT
RANGE. THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ACROSS THIS REGION HAS BEEN
EXPANDED SLIGHTLY NWD AND WWD TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE. SURROUNDING THE CRITICAL AREA AND EXTENDING NEWD INTO
PORTIONS OF UT...SERN ID...AND WRN/CNTRL WY...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR TODAY...WITH WINDS OF 15-20 MPH AND
RH VALUES BETWEEN 15-20 PERCENT COMMON. THE MARGINAL FORECAST
COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOWERED RH VALUES ACROSS THE ELEVATED
AREA CURRENTLY PRECLUDES A LARGER CRITICAL DESIGNATION.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



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