Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
FNUS21 KWNS 011628
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1027 AM CST Wed Mar 01 2017
Valid 011700Z - 021200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS AND
...Portions of the Central/Southern Plains...
Forecast outlined in the previous discussion (below) remains valid
with recent observations and the latest guidance still suggesting
elevated fire weather conditions across much of the central and
southern Plains and critical fire weather conditions from central KS
southward across western OK.
Despite a relatively cool start to the day, temperatures across
central KS and western OK are still expected to reach the mid 50s to
mid 60s. Given the dry airmass in place, these temperatures amidst
boundary-layer mixing will support afternoon RH values in the low to
mid teens. Slightly better low-level moisture will result in higher
afternoon RH values (around 20-25 percent) across the remainder of
the southern Plains. Wind speeds will range from 15 to 25 mph across
the entire region and the resulting combination of these
meteorological conditions with dry fuels will support a critical
fire weather threat from central KS southward through western OK and
an elevated fire weather threat across the remainder of KS and OK,
and portions of northwest TX, the TX Hill country, Edwards Plateau,
and Rio Grande Valley.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0314 AM CST Wed Mar 01 2017/
A broad mid/upper trough will gradually shift from the Plains states
to the eastern US today, as a strong southwesterly jet advances from
the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts. A corridor
of enhanced northwesterly flow will exist along the western
periphery of the trough, generally from the northern Rockies to the
mid Mississippi Valley. The surface response will feature low
pressure advancing northeast near the St. Lawrence Valley, with high
pressure building across much of the Plains.
...Portions of the central/southern Plains...
Despite the passage of a cold front (and related cold-air
advection), temperatures will still reach the 50s and 60s across
Kansas, Oklahoma, and north Texas, and into the 70s and 80s across
far south Texas. The air mass across most of this region will be
characterized by precipitable-water values around 0.2-0.3 inches. In
turn, diurnal mixing will lead to minimum RH values around 12-25
Modestly enhanced low/mid-level northwesterly flow will be advancing
south/east across the region during the day. Additionally, the
aforementioned high building into the Plains will support a tighter
pressure gradient. The highest surface winds (sustained around 20
mph) should exist in a corridor from western Oklahoma northward to
central Kansas. In tandem with the dry conditions, these winds will
create a critical fire-weather threat. Surrounding this area, winds
will be lighter (generally around 15-20 mph), but will still be
sufficient to support elevated concerns.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...