Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS22 KWNS 301906
FWDDY2

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

MINIMAL CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORM AND ELEVATED AREAS FOR D2/WED BASED ON LATEST
SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
ADDITIONAL METEOROLOGICAL DETAILS.

..GLEASON.. 08/30/2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0354 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016/

...SYNOPSIS...
IN THE MID LEVELS...BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL COVER PORTIONS OF THE
WRN CONUS...WHILE A RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE GREAT PLAINS...AND
CYCLONIC FLOW OVERLIES THE NORTHEAST. DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE WRN-CONUS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MODESTLY ENHANCED SWLY
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL/NRN GREAT BASIN AND VICINITY.
THIS PATTERN WILL ENCOURAGE SFC TROUGHING ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL
MT...LOCALLY TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM PARTS OF ERN MT
INTO NERN WY.

...PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/NRN GREAT BASIN TO PARTS OF THE NRN ROCKIES
AND VICINITY...
DIURNALLY ENHANCED VERTICAL MIXING INTO THE MODESTLY ENHANCED FLOW
ALOFT IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT SSWLY TO SWLY SFC WINDS AROUND 15-20
MPH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS -- AFFECTING PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN
NV...NWRN UT...NERN CA...SERN ORE...SRN ID...AND SWRN MT. THESE
WINDS SHOULD COMBINE WITH MINIMUM RH AROUND 10-20 PERCENT AND DRY
FUELS IN MANY AREAS TO RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS.
BORDERLINE-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR ON A SPOTTY
BASIS. HOWEVER...THE ANTICIPATED LACK OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WHERE CRITICAL RH MATERIALIZES SHOULD MITIGATE THE CRITICAL
FIRE-WEATHER POTENTIAL.

ADDITIONALLY...ACROSS PARTS OF NERN NV...NWRN UT...CNTRL/SRN
ID...AND SWRN MT...ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MARGINAL BUOYANCY WILL EXIST ON
THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC-FLOW AREA. DIURNALLY
ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AMIDST PW AROUND 0.50-0.75 INCH AND DEEP/WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYERS. THIS WILL SUPPORT A DRY-THUNDERSTORM MODE...AIDED
BY MODERATE STORM MOTIONS. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF STRONGER
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS TO
ISOLATED.

...PORTIONS OF ERN MT AND NERN WY...
THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SLY TO SSELY
SFC WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH. MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD BE LIMITED...SUCH
THAT DIURNALLY ENHANCED VERTICAL MIXING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RH
FALLING TO AROUND 20-25 PERCENT AMIDST DRY FUELS. ELEVATED TO
BORDERLINE-CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR.
HOWEVER...WITHOUT AN EVEN DRIER ANTECEDENT AIR MASS...ANY CRITICAL
RISK SHOULD BE BRIEF/SPOTTY/MARGINAL.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$



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