Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
264
FNUS22 KWNS 121924
FWDDY2

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0124 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...PORTIONS OF NERN NM...
AN ELEVATED AREA IS INTRODUCED ACROSS THE PLAINS OF NORTHEASTERN
NM...AS A COMBINATION OF BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND LOW RH
VALUES /BELOW 20 PERCENT/ SHOULD APPRECIABLY INCREASE THE FIRE-WX
THREAT. WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSES PROGRESSING EASTWARD WILL PROMOTE
LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...FAVORING AREAS OF
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH. ADDITIONALLY...INCREASING
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH DEEP DIURNAL MIXING TO BOOST SFC
WINDS. ENOUGH OVERLAP BETWEEN THESE WINDS AND DRY AIR /TO THE WEST
OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE/ SHOULD
EXIST...SUCH THAT CONFIDENCE IN ELEVATED FIRE-WX CONDITIONS IS HIGH
ENOUGH FOR THE INTRODUCTION OF AN AREA.

..PICCA.. 02/12/2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0248 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF BROADLY CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER PARTS OF THE ERN
STATES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD TO THE WRN ATLANTIC.
UPSTREAM...GENERALLY QUASI-ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL COVER MUCH OF
THE CNTRL/WRN CONUS...THOUGH RIDGING OVER PARTS OF THE ERN PACIFIC
WILL BEGIN TO EXTEND EWD TOWARD THE W COAST. LOW-AMPLITUDE IMPULSES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE FLOW MAY ENHANCE LEE SFC TROUGHING OVER PARTS
OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND VICINITY...WITH POCKETS OF STRONGER WINDS
AFFECTING THESE AREAS AS ADDRESSED IN THE SUBSEQUENT SUBSECTION.
OTHERWISE...STRONG WINDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO ALIGN WITH LOW RH
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS.

...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NERN NM INTO THE WRN TX/OK PANHANDLES...
PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED LOCALLY STRONG WINDS MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
COMBINE WITH DOWNSLOPE-FLOW-ENHANCED WARMING/DRYING TO CREATE
ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...AS REFLECTED BY
ENSEMBLE-MODEL GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IN THE SPATIOTEMPORAL EXTENT
AND MAGNITUDE OF SUCH POTENTIAL IS CURTAILED BY THE FOLLOWING
FACTORS:
/1/ ONLY GLANCING INFLUENCE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW ATTENDANT TO
THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSES OVER AREAS OF RELATIVELY LOW RH AT PEAK
HEATING...
/2/ GENERAL DISORGANIZATION TO THE IMPULSES YIELDING UNCERTAINTY IN
THEIR SPATIAL INFLUENCE ON AUGMENTING STRONG-WIND POTENTIAL...AND
/3/ POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TO OCCUR
IN PROXIMITY TO AND E OF THE LEE TROUGH...RESTRICTING THE COVERAGE
OF GREATER DIURNAL RH REDUCTIONS.

REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO ENSUE...AND AN ELEVATED AREA MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN
SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN ANY MORE THAN
MARGINAL...BRIEF...AND SPOTTY ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS
OCCURRING IS PRESENTLY TOO LIMITED FOR HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.