Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC
AGUS74 KFWR 141552
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1018 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014
VALID MARCH 14 THROUGH MARCH 19
...PLEASANT WEATHER TO RETURN BRIEFLY, COUPLE OF SYSTEMS TO MOVE
THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND...
Another day of pleasant weather is expected across the WGRFC area,
before several upper level disturbance moves across the region over
the weekend. Current water vapor imagery shows an upper level
disturbance spinning over portions of Arizona. The upper level
dynamics of the system have already allowed a few showers to develop
over western New Mexico this morning. As the day progresses, shower
and thunderstorm activity will begin to increase across southern
Colorado and New Mexico. Precipitation amounts are expected to
remain pretty low, generally less than 0.25 inch.
By late tonight/early tomorrow, the weak upper ridge currently
situated over the WGRFC area, will begin to slowly shift towards the
east. During this time, the upper level disturbance will continue to
move eastward across the Texas Panhandle and eventually the Red
River. As the system moves over the Red River by tomorrow evening,
it is expected to drag a dryline across portions of North Texas.
Thereafter, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along
the I-35 corridor...mainly during the late afternoon and evening
hours on Saturday. This activity will continue through the
early morning hours on Sunday, as the upper level disturbance
quickly moves off to the northeast. The highest amounts of
precipitation are expected along the Red River and extreme
northeastern portions of Texas. Some higher than normal rises are
possible over the upper Trinity and Sabine River systems, however no
significant flooding is expected. Currently, In addition to the
forecasted precipitation, The Storm Prediction Center has put most
of North and East Texas in a slight risk category for severe storms
as the Gulf moisture interacts with the dry line. The timing of the
interaction will be critical as the faster the short wave moves, the
further east storms will develop.
Going into Sunday and Monday morning, a much stronger low pressure
system will move into northern New Mexico diving down into western
Texas. A lack of overall moisture throughout the atmosphere
will prevent any significant rainfall for central and southern
Texas, but this system has a slight chance for precipitation. In
addition, it will bring yet another cold front dropping temperatures
once again Sunday night into Monday morning. The system should push
through rapidly and return the area to dry and cooler conditions
through mid week.
For Today into Saturday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for portions of southern
Colorado and northern New Mexico.
For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of up to 1.00 inch are
forecast for portions of North and East Texas...mainly along and
east of I-35 and along and north of I-20.
For Sunday into Monday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.
For Monday into Wednesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.
Almost all of New Mexico and 91% of Texas remain in some level of
drought category. In addition, 9% of Texas and 23% of New Mexico
are in extreme drought. The upper Rio Grande in south central
Colorado is in the abnormally dry category. Statewide, in Texas,
reservoirs are on average at 64% full. This is record lowest
average reservoir storage for this time of year, with average being
about 80% full. There is considerable variability across the state,
with many of the reservoirs in the western half of the state below
50% full. Without any significant rainfall in the forecast, the dry
begin of the new year will begin to approach record with little
relief in sight. Hopefully this is simply a late start to the
spring storm season and rainfall will return to much of Texas as
temperatures and convective systems begin to heat up.
...San Bernard Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Locally heavy rainfall occurred this past weekend on the upper part
of the San Bernard River Basin. The San Bernard River near East
Bernard (EBBT2) crested slightly above flood stage Tuesday and will
continue to slowly fall below action stage today. Downstream, the
San Bernard River near Boling (BOLT2) also rose above action stage
and has crested. It is expected to also fall below action stage
...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Flows remain above average in portions of southeastern Texas due to
recent rains.. Elsewhere, flows are generally well below average for
this time of year. Additional precipitation is forecast for
northeast Texas Sunday. However, no significant flooding is expected
from this system during the duration of this forecast period.
...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.
For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
National Precipitation Analysis:
The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
The US Drought Assessment:
The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: