Hydrometeorological Discussion
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AGUS74 KFWR 221650
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1050 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2017

                 VALID JANUARY 22 THROUGH JANUARY 27

...THE WEATHER WILL BE TURNING DRIER BY MID-WEEK OVER THE WGRFC
AREA...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
An upper level disturbance has moved from northern New Mexico and
southern Colorado eastward the past 24 hours. With the passage of
this disturbance the western parts of the WGRFC area received
snowfall at the higher elevations. Snow water equivalent amounts in
excess of 1.00 inch were observed.  The precipitation has ended there
for the time being.  Further east over Texas, as the upper air
disturbance moved east it became a closed low pressure system over
the Texas panhandle Saturday. This low moved rapidly eastward and is
over northeast Texas now. Ahead of this low showers and thunderstorms
developed over north Texas and northern Louisiana.  As this low
pressure system moved eastward thundershowers developed further
south and moved across east Texas and western Louisiana before
moving out of our region earlier this morning.  Some wrap-around
rainfall is being observed over eastern Oklahoma this morning, and
a few showers may affect extreme northeast Texas today. Otherwise
dry conditions are forecast today with no new or additional mainstem
river flooding expected.

By this afternoon a ridge of high pressure will build to the west
of our region.  This ridge will bring mostly dry weather to Texas
through Tuesday morning as it moves eastward.

Additional wintry precipitation is forecast to return tonight and
continue into Tuesday over portions of New Mexico and Colorado.  An
upper low will develop across Nebraska by Tuesday morning, with a
trough of low pressure extending westward into Colorado and Utah.
Moisture from the Pacific Ocean ahead of this trough will cause
precipitation to redevelop and persist over the western parts of the
WGRFC area at least on Monday and Tuesday before letting up on
Wednesday.

As this upper air disturbance approaches Texas by Wednesday it may
create a few showers along and near the Texas Gulf coast into
southwest Louisiana.  But dry air will follow the passage of this
trough, thus no precipitation is expected for most of Wednesday,
Thursday and early Friday.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Monday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts
of 0.25 inch are forecast for portions of southwest Colorado.  MAP
amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast for the northwest
quarter of New Mexico and western Colorado.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for portions of southwest Colorado and northwest New
Mexico.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast for
the northwest half of New Mexico and most of Colorado.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an
inch are forecast for central and northern sections of New Mexico and
most of Colorado, as well as over the middle and upper Texas Gulf
coast into southwest Louisiana.

For Wednesday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

There continues to be some abnormally dry soil moisture conditions,
and a few locations in drought, on the latest U.S. Drought Monitor
for Texas. No doubt the rainfall the past week has helped to
alleviate some of the dry conditions.  In Texas, the area considered
to be abnormally dry is at 17%. Also, 4% of Texas is experiencing
moderate drought conditions and less than 1% remains in severe
drought, particularly over northeast Texas near the Red River. In New
Mexico the drought monitor shows around 33% of the state experiencing
abnormally dry conditions, with 4% remaining in moderate drought. The
precipitation forecast the next 5 days will not be heavy enough to
produce significant runoff.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...San Bernard Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
The San Bernard River near Boling (BOLT2) has crested, but will
remain above moderate flood stage for the next one to two days.
Downstream, Sweeny (SWYT2) is now above flood stage and is expected
to crest slightly above current levels Monday morning.

...Guadalupe Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The lower Guadalupe near Bloomington (DUPT2) has crested and will
continue slowly falling, remaining above flood stage for the next
couple of days.

...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Minor flooding continues at a number of locations in the Neches
River basin due to rainfall over the past several days. The Neches
River at Saltwater Barrier (NSBT2) is experiencing a rise due to
routed flow, and will fluctuate around action stage during the next
several days from tidal effects.

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Minor flooding will continue for another day on the Sabine River
near Mineola (MLAT2). Rainfall over the past several days in
southeastern Texas has driven rises that will bring the Sabine River
at Deweyville (DWYT2) to flood stage later today, with a slow crest
slightly over flood stage during the early part of the coming week.

...Trinity Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Inflows into Lake Livingston have reached a maximum, allowing the
Trinity River at Riverside (RVRT2) to level out slightly above
action stage. Releases of around 23,000 cfs out of Lake Livingston
will keep the Trinity River at Liberty (LBYT2) and Moss Bluff
(MBFT2) above action stage throughout the week.

...Rio Grande Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Release out of Lake Amistad has brought stages on the Rio Grande at
Del Rio (DLRT2) and Laredo (LDOT2) near criteria and Columbia Bridge
(CBBT2) above criteria. Nearly steady levels will continue until the
discharge is changed.

...Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
The Brazos River at Richmond (RMOT2) will crest today above action
stage. Downstream, levels are below criteria. Upstream locations and
most tributaries have crested and are falling.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Nearly all remaining rivers have crested from recent rainfall. Drier
weather over the next five days will allow river levels to remain
nearly steady to slowly falling.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

STORY

$$




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