Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 251600
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HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1059 AM CDT TUE APR 25 2017

                   VALID APRIL 25 THROUGH APRIL 30

...A COUPLE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT THE WGRFC REGION THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

A ridge of high pressure moved across Texas the past 24 hours.  As
the ridge slid eastward dry weather continued over most of our
region.  The only exception was over Mexico where a few
thundershowers occurred west of Laredo.

This morning a more zonal upper air flow has developed.  Upper air
disturbances are rippling through this flow, and the first trough has
already generated some light precipitation over northwest New Mexico
and Colorado the past 12 hours.  This precipitation will continue
through the day and into Wednesday morning.  Then tonight one of the
upper disturbances will deepen and move across northern New Mexico.
This storm will move across north Texas and Oklahoma Wednesday. While
most of the rain from this disturbance is forecast from northern New
Mexico/Colorado and the Texas panhandle into Oklahoma, a few showers
and thunderstorms may develop as far south as extreme northern and
all of northeast Texas into Louisiana tonight into Wednesday
afternoon or evening. The storm will exit the region by Wednesday
night.

After a mostly dry day Thursday, a stronger upper air disturbance is
forecast to move over Colorado on Friday.  Along with some
precipitation over the western parts of the WGRFC area, showers and
thunderstorms will likely develop over northern and eastern Texas by
Saturday morning as this storm moves slowly east.  By Sunday morning
this storm will be moving over Kansas.  Showers and thunderstorms
will continue Saturday into Sunday morning, with some locally heavy
rainfall possible.  The WGRFC will continue to monitor the progress
of this storm system.  The precipitation should move east during the
day Sunday.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Wednesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch are forecast for portions of
northern New Mexico into southern Colorado and the northwestern Texas
panhandle.  The heaviest rainfall is forecast north of the WGRFC
area.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over
parts of east and northeast Texas, the northern two thirds of New
Mexico, the Texas panhandle and the remainder of Colorado.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of
an inch are forecast for the northeast quarter of Texas and the
northern two thirds of Louisiana.  The heaviest rainfall is forecast
northeast of the WGRFC area over Arkansas.  MAP amounts of less than
0.25 of an inch are forecast over roughly the northeast third of
Texas, Louisiana, and over the Texas panhandle into northern New
Mexico and southern Colorado.

For Thursday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an
inch are forecast over southern Colorado and extreme northern New
Mexico.

For Friday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch or
more are forecast for the northeast two thirds of Texas, as well as
over the northern two thirds of New Mexico and most of Colorado.  The
heaviest rainfall, with MAP amounts of 4.00 inches, is forecast over
extreme northeast Texas into southeast Oklahoma.  MAP amounts of less
than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over most remaining portions of the
WGRFC area.

Soil moisture conditions continue to show improvement due to recent
rainfall events. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Texas shows the
area considered to be abnormally dry at 10%. Also, 2% of Texas was
experiencing moderate drought, with nothing in severe drought. In
New Mexico the Drought Monitor shows 46% of the state experiencing
abnormally dry conditions, with nothing in the moderate drought
category or worse categories.  The rainfall forecast may produce
significant runoff over the northern and eastern Texas basins this
weekend.  Elsewhere, no significant runoff is expected over the
WGRFC area the next 5 days.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
Higher than normal flows are expected to continue over the Brazos and
Rio Grande river systems into this week, although the temperatures
will moderate in the headwaters of the Rio Grande as the week
progresses.

Precipitation is forecast across southern Colorado and northeast
Texas during the next 7 days. WGRFC will continue to monitor this
situation especially on the expected rainfall this weekend for
portions of the Neches, Trinity and Sabine watersheds.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

STORY

$$




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