Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 271610
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1109 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

                   VALID JULY 27 THROUGH AUGUST 1

...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
TEXAS TO CONTINUE ALONG WITH MONSOONAL RAINFALL IN NEW MEXICO...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

The weakened upper level ridge continues to stay far enough away to
allow Gulf moisture to flow inland at multiple levels in Central
Texas.  The ridge is out west in Nevada area today so
expect showers and thunderstorms to develop along the coast and into
eastern Texas this afternoon. Tomorrow the ridge will begin to
strengthen again and slowly drift back towards Texas.  Still expect
some showers possible out east again tomorrow before the ridge puts
a strangle hold back on the area.

By Friday the ridge will cut off the upper level flow of moisture
capping the atmosphere limiting the storm development. So expect a
return to the hot and dry weather this weekend that has dominated
much of the weather recently.

Monsoonal activity over New Mexico and Southern Colorado is expected
to continue through the entire period with up to 0.25 inches of
isolated rainfall possible each day.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Thursday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inches are possible with isolated areas
higher over East and Central Texas.

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 are possible
for isolated areas in Northeast Texas.

For Friday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Saturday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inches may
occur along the Eastern Gulf Coast.

Soils continue to dry out across Texas due to the warm temperatures
and a lack of significant rainfall.  The U.S. Drought Monitor has
categorized Texas as 13% abnormally dry, with almost 2% in moderate
or greater drought. Over New Mexico, 77% of the state is abnormally
dry, and 16% remains in the moderate drought category. Some rainfall
is forecast over the next five days primarily over east and southeast
Texas and western Louisiana.  This will keep drought conditions from
developing in this region, but only minor runoff is anticipated.  The
lack of heavy rainfall elsewhere will lead to continued drying
through this forecast period and no significant runoff is expected.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...All WGRFC Basins...
Locally heavy rainfall is causing rises in some areas,
particularly around Austin. Some flooding can be expected
on creeks in the area. Otherwise, higher than normal
seasonal flows are occurring in the eastern half of Texas.
Some rain is expected across parts of the region over
the next five days, but no significant river flooding
is expected over this time frame.



              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

GIARDINO


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