Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 311642
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1141 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

                 VALID AUGUST 31 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5

...DRY AIR DOMINATES FORECAST BUT A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS REMAIN...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

The coastal rainfall is still occurring along the coast, again not
reaching very far inland.  Yesterday, lower level winds shifted to
southerly pushing most of the precipitation to the Texas Louisiana
border.  Today the flow is currently more easterly on shore so the
storms are occurring along the central Texas Gulf coast.  The storms
are slowly shifting back towards the Louisiana border similar to
yesterday.  They are a little lighter than previous days but the
areas are saturated and experiencing urban and small stream flooding
already.  Continued rainfall will exacerbate these impacts through
the day.  Models show continued drying of the mid level air but
throughout the day tomorrow to saturate again causing these storms to
occur for another day, focused more towards the Texas Louisiana border
through the Houston area.  The longer range forecast does not show
the ending of this pattern, but the slow dissipation as two high
pressure systems slowly meander out of position that streams moisture
right at the western Gulf coast.

The rest of the area will be fairly dry as an upper level weak ridge
will settle over the plains keeping precipitation chances low.  There
is the possibility of a tropical system developing down south near
the Bay of Campeche, but the current forecast takes the storm into
Mexico well south of Brownsville.  However, some precipitation may
push far enough north to continue the coastal storm parade later in
the week.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Monday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.5 inches are forecasted by WPC for the central Gulf
coast of Texas.  0.25 inches are possible extending north to the
border.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Wednesday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.5 inches are
possible for deep south Texas and parts of Mexico contributing to the
lower Rio Grande.  0.25 inches is forecast for most of south Texas if
this tropical storm develops.

Drought persists over Texas and New Mexico.  Statewide, New
Mexico has no areas of exceptional drought while less than 3% of Texas
remains in exceptional drought.  Severe drought conditions are
impacting 40% of New Mexico and 34% of Texas.  The monsoonal rains in
New Mexico continue to ease the drought conditions in many areas
of the state.  Some runoff can be expected along the immediate Texas
Gulf coast the next 5 days, but minor or no runoff is anticipated
elsewhere.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
River conditions across the WGRFC area remain near or below seasonal
flows. Locally heavy rainfall is occurring along the Texas Gulf Coast
and in southeastern Texas. Runoff is possible in river basins in
these areas. However, no significant flooding is forecast to occur
through the forecast period.



              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

GIARDINO


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