Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 231648
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1048 AM CST FRI FEB 23 2018

                VALID FEBRUARY 23 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28

...CONTINUED WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY FOR
NORTH AND EAST TEXAS...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are currently impacting most
of North and Northeast Texas...and this activity is expected to
continue throughout the day. Rainfall amounts are averaging 0.25 to
0.50 inch per hour, with higher amounts reported in isolated storms.
Rainfall will become more scattered during the evening hours, as an
upper disturbance exits the WGRFC region.

Additional storms are forecast again late early tomorrow morning
as a stationary boundary along the coast begins to move north as a
warm front. Rainfall amounts of up to 1.00 inch are expected with
higher localized amounts possible. By Saturday morning, a line of
showers and thunderstorms is forecast to develop along the I-35
corridor and quickly move eastward as the cold front pushes out
of the area. Thereafter, an improvement in conditions will begin
Sunday.

The region will enjoy at least a couple days of warmer, dryer
conditions before another trough replaces the previous one over the
Rockies. Rain chances return to the forecast Tuesday as front surges
north and southerly low level moisture returns. More drizzle or light
rain returns Tuesday.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Saturday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 2 inches are forecast for the northern portion of
our forecast area.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1.50 inches
are forecast for the northern portion of our forecast area with 0.25
to 0.50 of an inch forecast for the southeastern portion of our
forecast area.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1.50 inches
are forecast for the southeastern portion of our forecast area.

For Monday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to one inch
are forecast for the eastern portion of our forecast area.

NOTE - This product will no longer be generated after March 1, 2018.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Trinity Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Heavy rainfall has occurred over a large area of the Trinity River
system over the last several days.  Rainfall is forecast to continue
for the next couple days, mainly over the upper and middle sections
of the basin.

Minor flooding is occurring over several sub-basins along the middle
Trinity River.  The only exception is the Trinity River at Trinidad
(TDDT2) where moderate flooding is forecast to occur early next week.
Higher than normal flows are also occurring over the remainder of the
basin.  It will take several days for the water to move downstream,
through Lake Livingston, and out to the Gulf.

...Neches Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Heavy rainfall has occurred over a large area of the Neches River
basin over the last few days.  Rainfall is forecast to continue for
the next couple days, mainly over the upper and middle sections of
the basin.  River levels have risen to, or are forecast to rise to,
minor flood levels.  The only exception is on the lower part where
the Neches River at the Saltwater Barrier (NSBT2)is forecast to rise
into moderate flood levels.

...Sabine Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
The past 72 hours have left 3 to 7 inches of rainfall from the
headwaters of the Sabine to Toledo Bend Reservoir. Moderate
flooding continues on Lake Fork Creek near Quitman (QTMT2).
Moderate flooding is also forecast on the Sabine River near
Mineola (MLAT2) and near Gladewater (GDWT2) later in the week.
Most of the other sites will be in minor impact flooding as
rain still lingers in the area keeping levels elevated.
Downstream will depend on releases from Toledo Bend as well
as local runoff from up to 5 inches of rain which could extend
for a bit of time. Bayou Anacoco near Rosepine (RPIL1)
reached moderate flooding this morning and is forecast to remain
in flood for several days.

...San Jacinto Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Recent heavy rainfall has generated runoff, with most of the San
Jacinto system flowing above base flow.  The East Fork of the San
Jacinto will remain near, to above criteria, into the weekend.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Rain remains in the forecast for the weekend, but will more than
likely extend current flooding but not cause much in the way of
additional flooding.  However, areas in the eastern half of the state
of Texas are sensitive and will respond if totals begin to mount.

Otherwise the rest of the area should remain within banks.



              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

NOTE - This product will no longer be generated after March 1, 2018.

All information in this product can be found at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/quick_briefing

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

CAZIER


$$





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