Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 261559
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
802 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

                     VALID MAY 26 THROUGH MAY 31

...ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES INTO EARLY WEEKEND...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
An upper level pattern will continue to aid in the development of
showers and thunderstorms today into the beginning of the
Memorial Day Holiday Weekend. Low level moisture and instability
remains plentiful with shower and thunderstorm development and
locally heavy rainfall expected across much of WGRFC`s area.
Daytime heating and the dry line will provide the lift along with
outflow boundaries from thunderstorms. Localized flooding rainfall
is forecast for today, Friday and into the early weekend for
Central and Eastern Texas.

The heaviest of the rainfall will clear out of the area by
Saturday with another system setting up to bring more rain
into WGRFC`s area later in the weekend into early next week.

As mentioned before, it will rain over the WGRFC area during the
next 5 days. Some areas in western Texas will receive little to no
rain until later on Sunday into Monday. Other areas could see
pockets of very heavy rainfall, especially in and near the strongest
thunderstorms. Localized high intensity rainfall is likely
on Thursday,Friday and into the early weekend. There is a slight
lull until another disturbance brings rain back into the area later
on Sunday into Monday.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Friday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 1 to 2 inches are forecast for Central Texas. MAP
amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for the remainder
of central and eastern Texas.

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 1 to 2 inches
are forecast for east northeast Texas and southwest into Central
Texas. Highest amounts are along the OK-AR borders.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of  0.25 to 0.50
inch are forecast for South and far southeastern Texas along
the LA border.

For Sunday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of  0.50 to 2.0
inch are forecast for most of Texas, especially over North and
West Texas. MAP amounts of around 0.25 inch are forecast for
most of eastern New Mexico.

Soils continue to be  moist across the majority Texas, especially
the eastern half. 3% of Texas is categorized as abnormally dry with
97% of Texas now categorized as drought free. Over New Mexico, 83%
of the state is abnormally dry, and 37% remains in the moderate
drought category.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Guadalupe Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Victoria (VICT2) and Bloomington  (DUPT2) are nearing crest
in moderate flood levels due to rainfall last week. Elsewhere,
flood levels have crested and have begun falling. Canyon Lake
is well within its flood pool and has been evacuating flood storage
through releases.  This has resulted in higher, sustained flows
downstream on the mainstem from Sattler to Gonzales.  However, there
are plans to reduce releases beginning Thursday evening through the
weekend for Memorial Day weekend activities, but will likely resume
elevated releases early next week.

...Trinity Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Rainfall recently fell over a small area of the upper Trinity River
Basin.  Higher than normal flows are occurring at a few locations with
minor flooding present on the West Fork Trinity at Boyd (BOYT2).
Releases from Corps of Engineers flood control reservoirs are keeping
the Elm Fork Trinity at higher than normal levels.  Higher than normal
flows are also occurring on the lower Trinity due to releases from Lake
Livingston.

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Toledo Bend Reservoir has started decreasing their releases, and this
should continue the next several days. The Sabine River at Deweyville
(DWYT2) is expected to remain in minor flood level through the weekend.
Additional heavy rainfall over the next 5 days, may cause higher rises.

...Neches Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Higher than normal flow are expected to continue for areas below Town
Bluff the remainder of the week.

...Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Higher than normal flows are occurring on portions of the Brazos and
associated tributaries due to recent rainfall and releases from
upstream flood  control  reservoirs.


...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Soils remain wet over most of the eastern half of the WGRFC forecast
area. Additional rainfall is expected later this week, which could
lead to more river flooding on basins already impacted.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 1 to 2 inches
are forecast for east northeast Texas and southwest into Central
Texas. Highest amounts are along the OK-AR borders.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of  0.25 to 0.50
inch are forecast for South and far southeastern Texas along
the LA border.

For Sunday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of  0.50 to 2.0
inch are forecast for most of Texas, especially over North and
West Texas. MAP amounts of around 0.25 inch are forecast for
most of eastern New Mexico.

Soils continue to be  moist across the majority Texas, especially
the eastern half. 3% of Texas is categorized as abnormally dry with
97% of Texas now categorized as drought free. Over New Mexico, 83%
of the state is abnormally dry, and 40% remains in the moderate
drought category. The rainfall the next 5 days will not be heavy
enough for widespread significant runoff.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

AUSTIN-SMITH


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