Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGNT40 KWNM 290130
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
930 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

GOES IR SATELLITE IMGRY INDC TROPICAL STROM BONNIE MOVING NE INTO
SRN NT2...HIGH PRES OVR THE CENTRAL OFSHR WTRS...AND A WK CDFNT
OVER NT1. CRNT SFC RPRTS INDC WINDS TO 20 KT WITH THE FRONT OVER
NT1...VARIABLE 5 TO 10 KT OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS WITH HIGH
PRES...AND E TO NE 25 KT OVER SRN NT1 WITH BONNIE...THO NONE ARE
INVOF THE CENTER. THE 18Z GFS INDC BONNIE WL MOVE TOWRD THE SC
COAST TNGT INTO SUN...AND AGREE WELL WITH THE REST OF THE 12Z MDLS
IN THE SHORT TERM. THE GLBL MDLS START DIVERGING WITH THE
TRACK...AS SOME SOLNS INDC IT WL RECURVE TMW NIGHT AHD OF AN UPR
LVL TROF MOVING IN FROM THE W. THE 12Z ECMWF/UKMET/GEM ALL TAKE
BONNIE BACK OFHSR...AS THE SRN EXTENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF
STARTS TO STEER IT N THEN NE SLOWLY. THE ECWMF/GFS/UKMET AGREE
SOMEWHAT WELL WITH TAKING IT N...BUT THE GFS IS A LTL SLOWER WITH
THE TURN AND MOVEMENT TO THE NE. FAVORING THE ECMWF/UKMET/GEM
SOLNS ATTM...AND WL BE USING OFFICIAL NHC GUIDANCE FOR THE FCST.

OTRW...THE 18Z GFS INDC AN UPR RIDGE OVER THE WRN ATLC WL DRIFT E
INTO MON...AS A SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION MOVES SE
INTO THE ERN CONUS...CARVING OUT A TROF. THE 12Z/18Z MODELS ALL
INDC A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOC WITH THE UPPER TROF WL PASS THRU THE
NT1 WATERS...INCRSG THE WINDS TO 20 TO 25 KT IN THE W TO SW FLOW
AHEAD OF THE BNDRY. THE PREV FCST FAVORED THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER
ECMWF SOLN...AND ATTM TEND TO AGREE SINCE THE SW FLOW OVER THE
STABLE SHELF WATERS N OF THE GULF STREAM WILL INHIBIT MIXING OF
HIGHER WINDS ALOFT TO THE SFC. THE PREV FCST WENT UP TO 25
KT...AND ATTM PLANNING ON STAYING AT THAT INTNSTY FOR THE UPDATE
PKG. ALSO NOT PLANNING ON MAKING ANY MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREV
FCST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PKG.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THRU THE NEXT SVRL DAYS THE MOST SIG WEATHER FEATURE WL BE THE
FUTURE TRACK AND FCST STRENGTH OF T.D. 2. AN EARLIER 1431Z HI
RESOLUTION ASCAT-B PASS SHOWED GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE IMMED NW
QUADRANT OF T.D. 2. SO WULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE SYSTEM BE
UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM IN THE NEXT NHC ADVSRY. IN RGRDS TO
THE FCST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...THE NEW 12Z MDLS CONT TO HV SIG
DIFFERENCES. VS ITS PREV 06Z RUN...THE 12Z GFS REMAINS ON THE SLOW
SIDE OF THE MDL TRACK ENVELOP. THE 12Z UKMET/ECMWF...AND EVEN
MORESO THE 12Z GFDL...FCST THE MOST PROGRESSIVE FCST TRACKS. THE
12Z GLOBAL GEM FCST TRACK SIMPLY LOOKS LIKE A COMPLETE OUTLIER
SOLUTION. THE 12Z NAM LOOKS EQUALLY UNUSEABLE AS IT FCSTS A NEW
SECOND LOW TO LIFT N INTO THE SRN NT2 WTRS SUN NITE. WITH SO MUCH
DISPARITY BTWN THE MDLS...WULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE NHC REMAIN
CLOSE TO THEIR PREV FCST TRACK...BUT PRHPS MADE SLIGHTLY MR
PROGRESSIVE LATE. IF FORCED TO CHOOSE NOW WULD FAVOR A COMPROMISE
TRACK BTWN THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF. BUT OF COURSE WL HV TO WAIT
FOR THE NEXT NHC ADVSRY. FOR NOW PLAN ON USING OUR PREV OFFICIAL
WIND GRIDS FOR THE NT1 WTRS WITH ADDITIONAL FURTHER EDITS IN
DEFERENCE TO THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF IN THE LONG RANGE. THE NEXT NHC
ADVSRY WL THEN DICTATE WHAT TO DO FOR THE WIND GRIDS FOR THE NT2
WTRS.

SEAS...BASED ON THE CURRENT OBS...A COMPROMISE BTWN THE 12Z
 WAVEWATCH III AND 12Z ECMWF WAM WULD INITIALIZE BEST. FOR NOW
FOR THE NT1 WTRS WL AGAIN USE THE PREV OFFICIAL WAVE GRIDS WITH
ADDITIONAL EDITS IN THE LONG RANGE PER THE 12Z WAVEWATCH III AND
12Z ECMWF. AGAIN THE NEW NHC FCST TRACK FOR T.D. 2 WL DICTATE WHAT
TO DO WITH THE FCST SEAS FOR THE NT2 WTRS.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...IN ASCN WITH T.D. 2...THE
12Z ESTOFS FCSTS A SLIGHTLY HIGHER POSITIVE SURGE TO DVLP ALONG
THE COAST NR THE GEORGIA/S CAROLINA BORDER TONITE INTO SUN THAN
FCST BY THE 12Z ETSS. IF THE SYSTEM INDEED BCMS TROPICAL STORM
SUSPECT THAT BOTH MDLS ARE UNDERFCSTG THIS SURGE.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
     NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ835...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER KELLS/VUKITS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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