Marine Interpretation Message
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AGNT40 KWNM 221942
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
342 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

12Z GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGRMT THRU MOST OF THE FCST PERIOD.
POPULATED WIND GRIDS WITH 30M WINDS FROM THE 12Z GFS WITH SOME
MINOR MODIFICATIONS. LATEST GFS HAS GOOD SUPPORT FROM BOTH THE
ECMWF AND THE UKMET.

LATEST SFC OBS SHOWING GUSTS FROM 45 TO 50 KT ON THE ELEVATED
PLATFORMS OFF THE COAST OF ME...WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT FROM THE
NEARBY BUOYS. WILL START OFF WITH 45 KT IN THE GLF OF ME IN THE
FIRST PERIOD.

LOW PRES OFF DELMARVA COAST EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT INTO
THU AS IT MOVES NE ACROSS NRN NT2 WATERS AND INTO THE NT1 WATERS.
LATEST GFS INDICATING WINDS TO 40 KT DVLPG IN THE W AND SW QUAD OF
THE LOW ACROSS THE CNTRL AND NRN NT2 WATERS TONIGHT. WILL GO WITH
WINDS TO 40 KT IN THE UPCOMING FCST. IN THE GLF OF ME...BOUNDARY
PERSISTS...ALLOWING FOR NELY GALES TO CONTINUE INTO THU. GFS
SHOWING PSBLY OF WINDS TO 45 KT FOR A BRIEF TIME AROUND
DAYBREAK...BUT WITH OTHER MODELS SHOWING A SLIGHTLY WEAKER
TREND...WILL KEEP WINDS TO 40 KT FOR NOW. LOW MOVES NE ACROSS SRN
NT2 WATERS THU NIGHT INTO FRI...WITH LOW WEAKENING ENUF FOR ANY
GALES ASSOC WITH SYSTEM TO DIMINISH.

COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGRMT WITH TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE
FRONT. GFS SHOWING GALES DVLPG OVER NT1 AND NRN NT2 WATERS SUN AND
CONTINUING INTO SUN NIGHT. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE UKMET SLIGHTLY
WEAKER...BUT ECMWF DOES INDICATE A FEW 30 KT WIND BARBS IN THE
NWLY FLOW. WILL KEEP MIN GALES IN THE FORECAST FOR SUN AND SUN
NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE GALES LINGER INTO MON OVER
THE NRN NT1 WATERS...AND WILL FOLLOW SUIT. HIGH PRES THEN EXPECTED
TO MOVE OFFSHR MON AND MON NIGHT.

.SEAS...WNA VERSION OF WWIII UNDERDONE IN THE NT1 WATERS. SEVERAL
BUOYS RPTNG 15 TO 16 FT OFF ME...WHILE MODEL ONLY SHOWING 11 TO 12
FT. LATEST ECMWF WAVE INITIALIZED BETTER WITH 15 TO 16 FT IN THE
REGION. ECMWF WAVE WAS POPULATED IN WAVE GRIDS THRU 18Z THU...THEN
WNA WAS USED AFTER THAT. FOR 12Z SUN THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE
FCST PERIOD...A 50-50 BLEND OF THE WNA AND THE ECMWF WAVE WAS USED
TO TONE DOWN HIGHER WNA WAVES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.


.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...12Z ESTOFS SHOWING AROUND 1
FT SURGE OFF MASS AND NH COASTS...AS WELL AS IN CAPE COD BAY AND
LONG ISLAND SOUND TONIGHT INTO THU IN THE STRONG NELY FLOW.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
.ANZ800...GULF OF MAINE...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO THU. GALE POSSIBLE MON.
.ANZ805...GEORGES BANK WEST OF 68W...
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.
.ANZ900...GEORGES BANK EAST OF 68W...
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.
.ANZ810...SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...
     GALE TONIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.
.ANZ815...SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...
     GALE TONIGHT. GALE POSSIBLE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ820...HUDSON CANYON TO BALTIMORE CANYON...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO THU. GALE POSSIBLE SUN.
.ANZ915...HUDSON CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE THU.
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.
.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE THU.
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN.
.ANZ905...THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO THE HAGUE LINE...
     GALE THU.
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.
.ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N...
     GALE THU.
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.
.ANZ825...INNER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO THU.
.ANZ828...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO THU.
.ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO THU.
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN.
.ANZ830...INNER WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO CAPE HATTERAS...
     GALE TONIGHT.
.ANZ930...OUTER WATERS FROM HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE TONIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER ACHORN. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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