Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGNT40 KWNM 211830
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
230 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

12Z GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGRMT THRU SHORT TERM...WITH SOME
DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD. WILL POPULATE WIND
GRIDS WITH 30M WINDS FROM THE 12Z GFS THRU 12Z MON...THEN USE 30M
WINDS FROM THE 06Z GFS THEREAFTER.

LOW PRES NR 38N65W MOVING AWAY FROM THE OFFSHR WATERS. ASSOC COLD
FRONT ABOUT STATIONARY ACROSS THE CNTRL NT2 WATERS. MODELS SHOWING
BOUNDARY STATIONARY THRU TONIGHT...THEN SLOW MOVING SELY ACROSS
THE CTNRL NT2 WATERS FRI AND FRI NIGHT...AND INTO THE SRN NT2
WATERS SAT THRU SUN...THEN S OF THE AREA BY SUN NIGHT. NELY FLOW
THEN SETS UP ACROSS MOST OF THE OFFSHR WATERS SUN NIGHT THRU MON
NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE NRN NT1 WATERS. WENT WITH 30M
WINDS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS MODELS TEND TO UNDERDO THE NELY
FLOW...ESP NEAR THE GULF STREAM.

SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TOWARDS THE END OF THE FCST DUE TO A
POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION. LATEST GLOBAL
MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGRMT ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BEING THE FASTER OF THE MODELS...WHILE
THE 12Z UKMET KEEPS THE SYSTEM SWRD TOWARDS SRN FLA. 12Z GFS IS
SLOWER WITH THE SYSTEM THAN ITS 06Z RUN. WILL GO WITH 06Z GFS FOR
NOW...WHICH IS A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FASTER 00Z ECMWF AND
THE SLOWER 12Z GFS RUN...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE THINKING ON THE
TROPICAL MED RANGE CALL WITH NHC AND WPC. NEEDLESS TO SAY...LOW
CONFDC IN THIS PORTION OF THE FCST.

.SEAS...WNA VERSION OF WWIII WITHIN A FT OR TWO OF CURRENT OBS.
WILL POPULATE WAVE GRIDS WITH 12Z WNA THRU 12Z MON...THEN 06Z WNA
THEREAFTER TO GO ALONG WITH THE 06Z GFS WINDS. WILL MAX OUT SEAS
AT 10 FT ON DAY 5.


.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
     NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER ACHORN. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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