Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGPN40 KWNM 231431
MIMPAC

Marine Weather Discussion for N Pacific Ocean
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
631 AM PST Thu Feb 23 2017

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant
.weather for the North Pacific N of 30N and E of 150W.

At 12z a high pressure ridge was located across the PZ6 and PZ6
offshore waters. For this intermidate update...other than some
tweaks to the near term...will not make any major changes to the
forecast in place.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

The 06z surface analysis indicated a weakening low pressure west
of the southern California waters, with stronger low pressure
over the Gulf of Alaska. Meanwhile, strong high pressure ridge
extended from the far west portion of Oregon and northern
California waters northwest. An ascat pass from 0432z indicated
area of 25 to 30 kt winds along the central and southern
California coastal waters from the Channel Islands and extending
northwest, with some 30 kt extending into inner portion of
offshore zone.

The 00z models continue to be in very good agreement during the
short term period from today through Friday night. There continue
to be differences from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening
over the California waters. For the short term period, the models
all remain in good agreement on maintaining the 25 to 30 kt winds
over the areas mentioned above through tonight before decreasing
Friday. The models also are very similar in developing low
pressure near the Vancouver Island coast later tonight, then
moving south across the Washington and Oregon waters Friday
Friday and Friday night. Will use the GFS winds to populate grids
through 09z Saturday. Then for Saturday through Sunday night, the
00z GFS continues the same trend as the 12z/18z runs yesterday
indicating a weaker low moving across the central California
waters. The 00z NAM/ECMWF are similar and keep winds below gale
threshold through the period. The 00z UKMET/CMC still indicate a
stronger low and continue to have gales over portions of the
central and southern California waters. WPC model diag favoring
00z NAM/ECMWF, and given the consistency of the ECMWF the past
few days and the trend of the past three GFS runs, will use ECMWF to
populate wind grids beginning 12z Saturday through the end of
period. This will result in no warning headlines through the
period.

.SEAS...The 06z sea state analysis indicated that overall
observes seas continue to be within a foot of the model guidance
with the exception of the southern California waters where
observed seas were about 1 to 3 feet higher than both the MWW3
and ECMWF WAM. For the wave grids, will do similar to winds using
MWW3 through 09z Saturday, then transitioning to ECMWF WAM for
remainder.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.


.WARNINGS...Preliminary.

.PZ5 Washington/Oregon Waters...
     None.

.PZ6 California Waters...
     None.

$$

.Forecaster Holley/Kosier. Ocean Prediction Center.


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