Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGPN40 KWNM 222016
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1216 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

OVER THE SHORT TERM...THE NEW 12Z MDLS REMAIN IN GOOD AGRMT
THAT THE COLD FRONT NOW ACRS THE CNTRL CA OFSHR WTRS WL DRIFT S
INTO THE SRN PZ6 WTRS TONITE THEN DISPT SUN. AT THE SAME TIME AS
THE MDLS ALL FCST A HIGH PRES RIDGE TO BLD INTO THE NRN PZ6 WTRS
TONITE/SUN THEY FCST THE NLY GRADIENT ACRS THE CNTRL/SRN PZ6 WTRS
TO STRENGTHEN (GNRLY UP TO 25 OR 30 KT). FURTHER N THE 12Z MDLS
REMAIN CONSISTENT IN FCSTG A NRN STREAM SFC LOW TO DVLP AND PASS N
OF THE PZ5 WTRS TONITE WHL PULLING A WKNG ASCD FRONT AND/OR SFC
TROF INTO THE NRN WTRS TONITE/EARLY SUN. WITH ALL OF THE 12Z MDLS
EXCEPT THE USUALLY CONSERVATIVE 12Z ECMWF...WHICH FCSTS 25-30 KT
BL WINDS...FCSTG A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE BL WINDS ASCD WITH
THIS FRONT/TROF WL CONT WITH THE PREVLY FCSTD MOD TO HI CONFIDENCE
GALE WRNGS FOR THE PZ5 WTRS FOR TONITE (AT THE SAME TIME PER A
CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z MDLS STIL BELIEVE THESE GALES WL REMAIN
LIMITED TO THE PZ5 OFSHR WTRS AND WL NOT MAKE IT INTO THE ADJACENT
CSTL WTR DOMAINS). LATER SUN/SUN NITE AS THE MDLS FCST THE AREA OF
HIGH PRES TO EXPAND THE MDLS TO SLIGHLY VARYING DEGREES ALL FCST
THE GRADIENTS TO BOTH ITS N AND S TO WEAKEN SO IT WL JUST BE A
MATTER OF HOW FAST TO FCST CONDS TO DMNSH. THEN MON/MON NITE WHL
THE MLDS FCST THE HIGH PRES RIDGE TO CONT TO DOMINATE THE PZ5 WTRS
THEY FCST WITH VARYING TIMING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NNE ACRS THE
PZ5 WTRS WITH A STRENTHENING ASCD SSWLY GRADIENT DVLPG. ON MON
NITE THE 12Z GFS FCSTS A FRONTAL WAVE TO DVLP AND AS A RESULT
FCSTS ITS WARM FRONT TO PASS N OF THE PZ5 WTRS...WHICH IS SPRTD BY
THE 12Z NAVGEM. BUT WITH THE 12Z GEFS INDICATING THAT THE 12Z GFS
FRONTAL WAVE IS LKLY TOO STRONG... WL INSTEAD FAVOR A BLENDED 12Z
UKMET/ECMWF SOLUTION (WHICH IS SPRTD BY THE 12Z GEM AND THE LATEST
WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE) WHICH DOES NOT FCST THE WARM FRONT TO
LIFT AS FAR N MON AND THEN STALLS ACRS THE NRN MOST PZ5 WTRS MON
NITE. SO FOR THE SHORT TERM...SMLR TO WHAT WAS DONE PREVLY...PLAN
ON POPULATING OUR FCST WIND GRIDS WITH THE 12Z GFS 30M BL WINDS
FOR TONITE/SUN...THEN WL TRANSITION TO THE 12Z ECMWF BL WINDS FOR
SUN NITE THRU MON NITE. SO AS A RESULT WL BE MAKING GNRLY SMALL
SHORT TERM CHNGS TO THE PREV OFSHR FCSTS.

IN THE LONG RANGE...ON TUE/TUE NITE...WITHOUT PARTICULARY HIGH
FCST CONFIDENCE OTHER THAN TO REMAIN MR CONSISTENT WITH THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WL FAVOR THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION OF THE WARM
FRONT DRIFTING N WHL A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE RACES E ALONG IT.
THERFORE WL CONT TO POPULATE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF BL WINDS FOR
TUE/TUE NITE. THEN WED THRU THU NITE THE DIFFERENCES BTWN THE 12Z
GFS AND 12Z ECMWF NARROW SIGLY AS THEY BOTH FCST SMLR TRACKS FOR A
CLOSED UPR LOW AND ITS ASCD NRLY VERTICALLY STACKED SFC LOW TO
SLOWLY MEANDER ENE TWDS THE NRN OFSHR WTRS WITH AN ASCD FRONT MOVG
INTO THE NRN WTRS WED NITE INTO THU NITE WITH A GRADLY
STRENGTHENING ASCD SSELY GRADIENT. WITH THE 12Z GFS FCSTG A SMLR
BUT STRONGER GRADIENT THAN THE 12Z ECMWF BLV FOR NOW A COMPROMISE
BTWN THE TWO MDLS WULD BE BEST. THEREFORE FOR WED THRU THU NITE
PLAN ON POPULATING WITH A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS 10M AND 12Z
ECMWF BL WINDS WHICH WL RESULT IN NO ASCD PSBL WRNGS (WHICH ARE
HINTED AT BY THE 12Z GFS 30M BL WINDS N OF THE FRONT ACRS THE NRN
PZ5 WTRS LATE THU/THU NITE).

.SEAS...SINCE THE 12Z GFS WL BE FAVORED...WL POPULATE OUR FCST
SEAS WITH THE 12Z WAVEWATCH III FOR TONITE INTO SUN NITE...WHICH
ARE VERY SMLR TO THE 12Z ECMWF WAM FCST SEAS. THEN SINCE THE 12Z
ECMWF SOLUTION WL BE FAVORED...WL TRANSITION TO ALL 12Z ECMWF WAM
FCST SEAS FOR LATE SUN NITE THRU TUE NITE. THEN SINCE A BLEND OF
THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF WL BE USED...WL POPULATE WITH A 50/50 BLEND OF
THE 12Z WAVEWATCH III AND 12Z ECMWF WAM FOR WED THRU THU NITE.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
.PZZ900...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...
     GALE TONIGHT.
.PZZ905...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CAPE LOOKOUT...
     GALE TONIGHT.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER VUKITS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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