Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGPN40 KWNM 240255
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
755 PM PDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

BUOY REPORTS INDICATE WINDS GUSTING TO GALE FORCE AND TO NEAR 40
KT OVR THE COASTAL WTRS OF FAR SRN OREGON AND NRN CALIF THIS EVE.
BOTH MEDFORD AND EUREKA COASTAL WFOS HAVE GALE WNGS FOR THESE WTRS
AT THIS TIME. IT APPEARS AS IF THESE GALES WILL REMAIN OVR THESE
COASTAL WTRS INTO MON...BEFORE SPREADING W INTO ERN PORTIONS OF
THE NRN CALIF AND FAR SRN OREG INNER OFF WTRS MON NITE THRU THU
NITE. FOR THE EVE UPDATE WE WILL NOT MAKE SIG CHANGES TO THE
ONGOING FCST...EXCEPT TO FIT THE ONGOING GRIDS AND FCST TO THE
LATEST CONDITIONS AND TO NEARBY COASTAL WFO AND TAFB GRIDS AND
FCST. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN ANCHORED W OF THE WTRS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A COASTAL LOW PRES TROF STRENGTHENING TOWARD
MID AND LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

SEAS...SEA HEIGHTS RANGE FROM 11 FT OFF THE NRN AND CENTRAL CALIF
COAST TO 3 TO 4 FT OVR WASH OFF WTRS PER THE LATEST OBS AND
ALTIMETER DATA. FOR THE EVE UPDATE WE WILL TWEAK THE PREV GRIDS
AND FCST TO FIT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND NEARBY COASTAL AND TAFB
FCSTS. OTW...NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE EVE UPDATE.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES 1030 MB W OF THE WATERS HAS STRENGTHENED AND STILL HAS
ITS RIDGE INTO MOST OF THE REGION AND THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE
CONTINUED TO INTIALIZE IT VERY WELL. THE INLAND TROF NEAR THE CA
COAST STILL STRETCHES FROM LOW PRES OVER AZ AND IS STILL
STRENGTHENING AS IT EXPANDS N FORCING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT. THE
MODELS AGREE ON CONTINUED STRENGTHENING THE TROF IN THE SHORT
TERM. ALL THE OBSERVATIONS SHOW HIGHER WINDS IN THE AREA BETWEEN
THE HIGH AND THE INLAND TROF ESPECIALLY THE ERN PARTS OF THE NRN
AND CENTRAL CA WATERS. AT 18Z THE NCEP MAP SHOWS A WARM FRONT THAT
STRETCHES SE FROM LOW PRES 995 MB IN THE GULF OF AK...AND ENDS
JUST NW OF THE WATERS. THE PRES GRADIENT IS VERY SLACK IN MOST
AREAS EXCEPT AS MENTIONED ABOVE.

THE CURRENT 12Z RUN OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUES WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OF THE MAIN SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE REGION
FROM THE 00Z AND 06Z RUNS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE ALSO CONTINUED TO BE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THEY ONLY HAVE TO
AGREE ON MAINTAINING THE HIGH PRES TO THE W OF THE REGION AND
KEEPING THE INLAND TROF ALONG CA COAST. AS SUCH WILL CONTINUE WITH
GFS. IN THE SHORT TERM THE HIGH PRES WILL PERSIST TO THE W OF THE
REGION AS INLAND TROF STRENGTHENS AND THAT WILLELAVATE WINDS TO
GALE FORCE. IN THE EXTENDED PEROD THE INLAND TROF WILL PRESIST AND
EXPAND N ALLOWING AREA OF ELEVATED WINDS TO SPREAD INTO THE SRN
PARTS OF THE OR WATERS.

.SEAS...RELATIVELY LARGE SEAS ARE OVER THE SRN WATERS RANGING
BETWEEN 6 AND 9 FT WITH PEAK TO 11 FT. SEAS RANGE BETWEEN 3 AND 6
FT OVER THE REAST OF THE WATERS. THE NWW3 MULTI GIRD WAVE MODEL HAS
INITIALIZED VERY WELL WITH HE SEAS OBSERVED PATTERN AND HAS BEEN
VERY CONSISITENT IN THE PREVIOUS RUNS. THE ECMWFWAVE MODEL LIKE
NWW3 HAS ALSO INITIALIZED WELL BUT APPEAR TO FORECAST SEAS BY 1 FT
LESS THAN NWW3 IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT THE GENERAL PATTERN
REMAIN THE SAME.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
.PZZ815...INNER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...
     GALE POSSIBLE WED.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
.PZZ820...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT.
.PZZ825...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ARENA TO PIGEON POINT...
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE.

$$

.FORECASTER MILLS/MUSONDA. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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