Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGPN40 KWNM 202019
MIMPAC

Marine Weather Discussion for N Pacific Ocean
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
1219 PM PST Mon Nov 20 2017

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant
.weather for the North Pacific N of 30N and E of 150W.

The 18z surface analysis indicated a stationary front over the
northern California waters, with a high pressure ridge over the
central and southern California waters. An intensifying low
pressure was located west of the northern California waters near
39N141W. Ascat pass from late morning indicated winds mostly 20
KT or less, although there was a small area of 25 kt over the
northern California waters just south of stationary front, and
over the northern California coastal waters.

The 12z models remain in very good agreement through most of the
forecast period, but some differences do appear over the weekend.
for tonight through Thursday, the model remain in excellent
agreement moving the low mentioned above northeast the next few
days while intensifying. As the low passes west of the Washington
and Oregon waters Tuesday, a strong front will move into the
Washington, Oregon and northern California waters. The models
also are close with the timing of the gales, so plan on staying
close to the GFS during this period. This will result in few if
any changes to the existing warning headlines. Another low will
pass west of the Washington and Oregon waters Wednesday, and the
models also agree on gales over portions of the PZ5 waters as the
low passes west of the area. Yet another low will move across the
Washington waters Thursday, with winds remaining just below gale,
with weak ridge building onto area Thursday night into Friday. Then
looking ahead to Friday night and beyond, the GFS has backed off
on having a strong low passing across the northern waters
Saturday like the 00z and 06z runs indicated, and has now trended
closer to the ECMWF/UKMET. Even so, the GFS still generates gales
later Saturday and Saturday night, mainly over the coastal
waters. Will continue to defer to the ECMWF during this period as
it continues to be more consistent compared to the GFS. In
summary, will use the GFS through 12z Saturday, then will use the
12z ECMWF for remainder.

.SEAS...The 18z sea state analysis indicated that the observed
seas are now more in line with the WaveWatch III forecast values
with differences of a foot or less noted. Plan on using the
WaveWatch through 12z Saturday, then ECMWF WAM for Saturday and
beyond.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...Preliminary.

.PZ5 Washington/Oregon Waters...
.PZZ800...Inner Waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater...
     Gale Tuesday.
.PZZ900...Outer Waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater...
     Gale Tuesday.
     Gale Wednesday.
.PZZ805...Inner Waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout...
     Gale Tuesday.
.PZZ905...Outer Waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout...
     Gale Tuesday.
     Gale Wednesday.
.PZZ810...Inner Waters from Cape Lookout to Florence OR...
     Gale Tuesday.
.PZZ910...Outer Waters from Cape Lookout to Florence OR...
     Gale Tuesday.
.PZZ815...Inner Waters from Florence OR to Point St. George...
     Gale Tuesday.
.PZZ915...Outer Waters from Florence OR to Point St. George...
     Gale Tuesday.

.PZ6 California Waters...
.PZZ820...Inner Waters from Point St. George to Point Arena...
     Gale Tuesday.
.PZZ920...Outer Waters from Point St. George to Point Arena...
     Gale Tuesday.

$$

.Forecaster Kosier. Ocean Prediction Center.



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