Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGPN40 KWNM 312102
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
202 PM PDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED W OF THE WATERS NEAR 38N133W WITH ITS
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE ACROSS THE PZ5 WATERS PER THE 18Z OPC SFC
ANALYSIS. THE 15-25 KT NLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE SRN PZ5/NRN
PZ6 WATERS BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND A 1009 MB LOW OVER NRN CA. A
WEAK COLD FRONT PRESENTLY LOCATED W OF THE PZ5 WATERS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WA/OR WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO WED...BRINGING A SW TO
NW WIND SHIFT OVER THE OUTER WATERS BEFORE THE FRONT DISSIPATES
WED NIGHT.

THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE DOMINATES THE PATTERN. THE
12Z GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW THE RIDGE MEANDERING SE ACROSS THE
PZ5/NRN PZ6 WATERS THROUGH THU BEFORE LIFTING BACK NW ACROSS THE
WATERS THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN. THIS WILL STEER AN APPROACHING LOW
PRES SYSTEM NW OF THE PZ5 WATERS LATE THU/EARLY FRI...WITH WIND
SPEEDS BRIEFLY INCREASING TO 20-25 KT OVER THE FAR NW PORTION. NO
MARINE HEADLINES WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE AS WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

THE 12Z GFS WAS THE PREFERRED MODEL CHOICE TODAY. IT MATCHES UP
WELL WITH THE 12Z ECMWF...AS WELL AS THE PREVIOUS FCST AND OUR
NEIGHBORING WFOS. THE ONLY NOTABLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
GFS/ECMWF IS ON SUN AS THE ECMWF EXTENDS THE SWATH OF STRONGEST
NLY WINDS/HIGHEST SEAS FURTHER S INTO THE CENTRAL PZ6 WATERS. WILL
STICK WITH THE GFS UNTIL A CLEAR MODEL TREND BECOMES EVIDENT.

.SEAS...BLENDED THE 12Z NWW3/ECMWF WAM THROUGH WED NIGHT TO BUMP
UP SEAS A BIT IN THE NRN PZ6 WATERS. AFTERWARDS...USED THE NWW3
THROUGH SUN NIGHT TO MATCH THE GFS WIND GRIDS.


.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
     NONE.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER REINHART. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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