Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGPN40 KWNM 291430
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
730 AM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

PER THE 12Z OPC SFC ANALYSIS A COLD FRONT WAS OVER THE OR WATERS
WHILE A HIGH PRES RIDGE WAS OVER THE REST OF THE PZ5/PZ6 WATERS. LAST
FEW RUNS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE SHOWN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE 5
DAY PERIOD. W/THE LATEST 06Z GFS/NAM BEING IN AGREEMENT W/THEIR
PRIOR 00Z RUNS AND OTHER 00Z GUIDANCE SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

06Z NCEP FINAL SFC ANAL SHOWS APCHG CDFNT WHICH HAS MOVED LTL
SINCE LAST 6 HOURLY ANAL...AND IR STLT LOOP INDICATED FNT ABOUT
TO STALL OUT AS A WAVE IS FRMG ON FNT WELL W OF CENTRAL CA NR
150W...AND WRM FNT HAS MOVD NE PAST WA OFSHR WTRS. A HIGH PRES
RIDGE WAS OVER THE SE PZ5 WTRS AND NW PZ6 AREA WHILE AN INVERTED
TROF WAS OVR CA. AVAILABLE 05Z ASCAT-A PASS WITH GOOD CVRG
INDICATED STRONGEST WINDS...20 T0 30 KT...WERE IN THE CENTRAL CA
OFFSHORE WATERS IN N/NW FLOW AND SW 25 KT AHD OF CDFNT IN NW PZ5
WTRS. GUSTS TO 33 TO 35 KT NOTED IN CENTRAL CA CSTL WTRS AT BUOYS
46013 AND 46028 AT 06Z BUT HAVE SINCE COME DOWN SLGTLY. THESE WNDS
ARE SLGTLY HIGHER THAN 00Z GFS 10M WNDS AND THEREFORE FOR START OF
FIRST PRD BOOSTED 00Z GFS 10M WNDS BY 8 PCT.

00Z GLOBAL GUIDANCE ALG WITH 00Z NAM ARE IN EXCELLENT AGRMT DURING
FCST PRD SO GENERALLY FAVORED 00Z GFS. COLD FRONT STALLS IN FAR NW
WTRS SUN AS AFOREMENTIONED DVLPG WAVE MOVS ALG FNT...THEN PASSES
JUST NW OF PZ5 WTRS TONIGHT AND EARLY MON. USED 30M GFS WINDS AHD
OF FNT SUN NIGHT WITH SPRT FM 925 MB WNDS OF 55 KT AND APCH OF FNT
TO CST. CONTINUING MENTION OF BRF PRD OF GALES IN THE NW PZ5
WATERS SUN NIGHT. ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS MON NIGHT A HIGH PRES
RIDGE BUILDS IN AND BECOME THE MAIN FEATURE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD OVER THE PZ5 WATERS...INTERRUPTED ONLY BY A WK LOW
PRES TROUGH MOVG THRU FM THE W TUE NIGHT. OVER THE CA
WTRS...ESPCLY CENTRAL AND SRN PZ6 WATERS...CONCERN REMAINS ABOUT
INCRG WNDS TWD GALE FRC TUE INTO THU AS EPAC UPR RDG BLDS AND
MOVS TWD WTRS WITH ITS ASCD HIGH PRES RDG PRESSING SE AGAINST A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRES TROUGH ALONG THE CA COAST. GLOBAL GUIDANCE
APRS MORE BULLISH ABOUT EARLIER START OF GALES AND ALSO SUGGEST
EXPANSION NWD TO PIGEON PT AREA. FAVOR THE HIGHER 00Z GFS 30M WNDS
LATE TUE INTO THU WHEN TROF IS STRONGEST. LOOKING FOR START TO
GALES LATE TUE ARND PT CONCEPTION AND EXPANDING THEM N INTO ZONE
825 TUE NIGHT. AS IN PREVIOUS FCST THIS RESULTS IN CONTINUED
MENTION OF GALES IN PARTS OF THE SRN CA WATERS AS WELL. FOR LATER
THU AND THU NIGHT A STRONG LOW MOVG ACRS GLF OF AK IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH A WKNG CDFNT ACRS PZ5 WTRS. EXPECTING ONLY WNDS TO 25 KT PZ5
WTRS WITH FNT AND IN WLY FLOW BHND FNT THU NIGHT PER GFS 10M WNDS.

.SEAS...FAVORED 00Z ECMWF WAM INITIALLY THEN TRANSITIONED TO 00Z
ENP WW3 BY 00Z MON.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
.PZZ900...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...
     GALE TONIGHT.
.PZZ905...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CAPE LOOKOUT...
     GALE TONIGHT.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
.PZZ825...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ARENA TO PIGEON POINT...
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT.
.PZZ830...INNER WATERS FROM PIGEON POINT TO POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS...
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT.
.PZZ835...INNER WATERS FROM POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SANTA CRUZ ISLAND, CA...
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED NIGHT.
.PZZ840...INNER WATERS FROM SANTA CRUZ ISLAND, CA TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND, CA...
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED NIGHT.
.PZZ940...OUTER WATERS FROM SANTA CRUZ ISLAND, CA TO 120W...
     GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER HOLLEY/BANCROFT. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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