Public Information Statement
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
450 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

...THIS WEEK IS NATIONAL HURRICANE AWARENESS WEEK...

IT IS TIME FOR YOU TO PREPARE FOR THE 2015 HURRICANE SEASON. THE
ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BEGINS EACH YEAR ON JUNE 1ST AND ENDS
NOVEMBER 30TH. BEING PREPARED CAN MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN YOUR
ABILITY TO COPE WHEN A STORM THREATENS.

TODAYS TOPIC IS HURRICANE FORECASTING.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI FLORIDA FORECASTS THE
PATH...SPEED...AND STRENGTH OF HURRICANES. DATA FROM WEATHER
SATELLITES...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...AND OTHER SOURCES ARE USED IN
COMPUTER FORECAST MODELS.

FORECAST ACCURACY DECREASES WITH TIME...THE AVERAGE 5 DAY HURRICANE
TRACK ERROR IS ABOUT 210 NAUTICAL MILES. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ALSO FORECASTS STORM SURGE HEIGHT AND COASTAL FLOODING.

WORKING WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER...WHICH FORECASTS EXPECTED
RAINFALL. ALSO...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVER FORECAST CENTERS
FORECAST EXPECTED FLOODING.

FACTORS IN LONGER TERM SEASONAL PREDICTION OF HURRICANE ACTIVITY ARE
EXPECTED OCEAN TEMPERATURES AND HIGH ALTITUDE WINDS.

SINCE THE MID 1990S...THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL UPSWING IN ANNUAL
ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM THE LONG TERM AVERAGE OF ABOUT 12
NAMED STORMS...6 HURRICANES AND 3 INTENSE HURRICANES OF AT LEAST
CATEGORY 3 STRENGTH. THE HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK FOR THIS YEAR IS
A LITTLE BELOW THAT LONG TERM AVERAGE...WITH 6 TO 11 NAMED
STORMS...3 TO 6 HURRICANES...AND 0 TO 2 INTENSE HURRICANES.

WITH THE EXPLOSIVE INCREASE IN POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTS OVER THE LAST 25 YEARS...THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR HURRICANE DESTRUCTION EQUAL OR GREATER THAN THAT EXPERIENCED IN
NEW ORLEANS IN THE AFTERMATH OF HURRICANE KATRINA IN 2005 AND IN THE
NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERMATH OF HURRICANE SANDY IN 2012.

TO GET THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE CAPE FEAR
REGION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE: WEATHER.GOV/ILM/TROPICS

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