Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
ACUS03 KWNS 280725
SPC AC 280724
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
WEST TN...EASTERN AR...AND NORTHERN MS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY AND TN VALLEY...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...AND INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS...
Severe thunderstorms are expected on Thursday from parts of the
middle and lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley.
...Lower/Mid MS Valley into TN Valley...
A strong upper trough will continue moving eastward across the
southern Plains and into the mid/lower MS valley on Thursday.
Thunderstorms are expected to form during the afternoon along/ahead
of the cold front/dryline over AR/LA and track eastward into MS/TN.
Forecast soundings indicate the potential for strong CAPE ahead of
the front, along with favorable shear profiles for organized/severe
storms. Model solutions are quite consistent on the position of
main trough axis, but the details of shortwave timing/locations are
quite diverse. Nevertheless, a consensus of guidance provides
sufficient confidence to upgrade a portion of western TN, eastern
AR, and northern MS to an ENH risk for Thursday.