747
FXUS64 KOUN 092329
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
629 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of central,
southern, and southeastern Oklahoma early this afternoon, driven
by a weak mid- level shortwave aiding in ascent above the residual
frontal zone. Stronger surface-based convection is confined along
and south of the front down near I-20, but as we have already
seen today, elevated convection in our area will still have the
potential for large hail up to the size of golf balls through the
afternoon before activity weakens and moves out of the area early
this evening.

Ware

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Dry and mild conditions are expected Friday and Saturday as we see a
brief period of ridging ahead of a cutoff low over the western US
which will slowly move across the area Sunday into Monday. Shower
and thunderstorm chances will be on the increase as early as
Saturday night across western portions of the area, spreading
eastward through the day Sunday and exiting eastern parts of the
area later in the day on Monday. Can`t rule out a strong to severe
storm across southern Oklahoma and western north Texas where
instability will be a bit higher, but overall chances for organized
severe weather appear rather low with this system. Given recent
heavy rainfall, flooding could become a concern but would likely be
limited in aerial coverage.

Another system will be quick on its heels by Wednesday or Thursday
of next week and will bring another chance for showers and
thunderstorms to much of the area. Depending on the degree of
moisture return this system could bring with it some potential for
severe weather, but the details remain rather uncertain with
disagreement among the models on track and timing of the system from
this range.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

A few showers and an isolated thunderstorm will persist across
southeast Oklahoma for an hour or two this evening, including near
KDUA. Otherwise VFR conditions and just some mid-level clouds are
expected across the area. Some gusty winds late this afternoon at
KLAW and KSPS should decrease by or just a little after 00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  53  76  54  80 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         53  78  54  79 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  55  78  55  75 /   0   0   0  10
Gage OK           47  78  50  80 /   0   0   0  10
Ponca City OK     51  75  52  81 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         58  78  56  81 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...26