000
FXUS63 KGID 182315
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
615 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 405 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

Saturday Severe Thunderstorms Possible...The chance for
thunderstorms is looking pretty good for Saturday evening into
Saturday night across the forecast area. The 12Z NAM and several
WRF models along with the 12Z GFS and ECMWF are all developing
fairly widespread thunderstorms late Saturday afternoon/early
evening west of our forecast area with those thunderstorms moving
into our forecast area Saturday evening into the overnight hours.
There will be plenty of instability with at least marginal deep
layer shear to give us the possibility of severe thunderstorms,
with areas west of Hwy 281 being slightly favored. Large hail,
strong winds, and heavy rain will be the primary severe weather
threat. Will need to see where the heavy rain falls as some areas
especially along and north of I-80 are pretty saturated, which may
result in renewed flooding concerns.

Sunday...Most of the day really should be dry with the best chance
of storms being after dark. Even the best chance of storms is
fairly marginal with some forecast models not giving us much of
anything while others indicate the possibility of at least a few
strong to potentially severe thunderstorms around the area
primarily after dark Sunday evening/night.

.Eclipse...

Monday...The big weather day with all the eyes on it will be the
cloud forecast around the time of the mid-day eclipse.

Based on most forecast models there will probably be at least some
clouds around during the time of the eclipse, probably mid to
high clouds. It appears it will be more cloudy right away at
sunrise with decreasing clouds in most areas by mid morning and
then increasing clouds again by late afternoon/evening. This will
hopefully give us a nice window right around the time of the
eclipse where the clouds will be at a relative minimum. Even so,
there will probably be at least a few to scattered clouds around
the area during the eclipse. We will be keeping a close eye on
satellite imagery the day of the eclipse.

Temperatures will be fairly nice during the actual eclipse
ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s.

We do expect a cold front to swing down into the region Monday
night bringing a chance for thunderstorms mainly during the late
evening and overnight hours.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 405 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

The zonal pattern turns more into a western ridge that should
migrate into our region with time. If this pattern holds true we
should largely dry out with near normal highs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Saturday)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. Surface high
pressure will slide eastward across the area with winds becoming
southerly by morning. Skies are expected to be mostly clear
overnight. There is a chance for thunderstorms during the late
afternoon and evening hours tomorrow which could impact both
terminals. Have left any mention out at this time due to the
uncertainty of location of convection.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wesely
LONG TERM...Wesely
AVIATION...Billings Wright