000
FXUS63 KGID 211744
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1244 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1029 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Updated the forecast to cut back and move the precipitation
chances out of the forecast area quicker. Honestly, really do not
think we will see any precipitation in the area. Think the front
will be out of the area before any precipitation develops east of
the area.

Also increased northerly winds behind the front. Many
observations are 25 to 35 mph with gusts over 40 mph this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

A strong cold front will quickly track across the forecast area
from northwest to southeast this morning. This will turn our
strong southerly winds to gusty northwesterly winds behind the
cold front. Our temperatures will hold pretty steady this morning
through early afternoon with good mixing, but we don`t really
expect temperatures will rise much if at all this afternoon. The
cold air advection and normal diurnal heating will more or less
balance each other out keeping temperatures largely steady in the
60s for most areas through mid afternoon. By late afternoon and
especially by early evening the cold air advection will really be
felt and temperatures will quickly fall. We also expect dewpoints
will really fall off today behind the cold front from the lower
60s just ahead of the cold front into 30s by late afternoon behind
the cold front.

The cold front timing is not favorable for our area to see much if
anything in the way of showers and thunderstorms. The cold front
is expected to fire up a line of thunderstorms late this afternoon
and evening off to our south and east. However, for most of our
area this will be a dry frontal passage, with just a slight chance
of a thunderstorm generally across our far southeastern zones.

Tonight...The cold air will really settle in as the skies clear
and the wind goes light allowing for strong radiational cooling in
a much colder airmass. Low temperatures tonight should fall into
the upper 20s across our northwestern zones with lows around the
freezing mark in the Hastings and Grand Island area. Lower to mid
30s are expected over our southeastern zones. We are only still
issuing frost/freeze headlines for our Kansas counties and have
issued a frost advisory for all of our Kansas counties for early
Sunday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

After a frosty start to the day on Sunday, temperatures will rebound
into the upper 60s to lower 70s as a deep trough continues eastward
and out of the area.

Monday will remain relatively warm as well, but a reinforcing shot
of cool and drier air is forecast to arrive Monday evening. Breezy
northwest winds will keep low temperatures from falling much lower
than the upper 30s to low 40s on Monday night, but highs on Tuesday
will struggle to reach the 60s. With a stiff north wind, it will
feel quite cold...especially compared to to how mild it has been so
far.

On Wednesday, ridging aloft will briefly take over, which will allow
temperatures to reach the 70s again.

This warmth will be short-lived though. Another strong upper low
will push a front through the area on Thursday. This will bring us
our next chance of rain, and could even bring some snow to parts of
the area depending on the timing of the system. Lows Thursday and
Friday nights are expected to be in the upper 30s to low 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Sunday)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

VFR conditions as far as ceilings and visibility are concerned,
but both KEAR/KGRI are impacted by very strong northwest winds.
Northwest winds are sustained at 20-30kts with gusts near 40kts.
These northwest winds will decrease later this afternoon and into
the evening hours and as surface high pressure builds in they will
be light and westerly overnight. Mid and high level clouds are
also expected to move out as the upper low moves eastward and
skies will clear for tonight and tomorrow.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Sunday for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Billings Wright
SHORT TERM...Wesely
LONG TERM...Mangels
AVIATION...Billings Wright