273
FXUS63 KGID 131721
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1221 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- For most, the forecast through Monday night remains dry. Once
  potential exception comes mid-late afternoon/early evening
  today...with the potential for a few isolated storms
  developing along an approaching surface frontal boundary. Kept
  chances at 20 percent, not all models agree with any activity
  developing.

- Next chances for storms return late in the day Tuesday and
  continue on through the end of the week. Current best chances
  are focused on Tuesday evening-overnight, especially across
  portions of south central NE. Can`t rule out some that
  activity being strong to severe. More uncertainty and lower
  confidence remains in storm chance details Wednesday and on.

- After a pleasant day on Saturday with highs in the 70s-80s,
  warmer temperatures return today-Tuesday, with highs in the
  low-mid 90s by Mon-Tue. Cooler temps return mid-week, with
  Thur forecast in the mid 70s-mid 80s, before temps climb back
  into the 80s-90s for next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Currently...

Quiet conditions reign across the region early this morning.
Upper air and satellite data showing the forecast area under
west-northwesterly flow...set up just west of trough axis
extending southward from low pressure in the Hudson Bay area
down into central TX. Satellite imagery also showing that
outside of a few spots of clouds, most areas are seeing mostly
clear skies. At the surface, the pattern remains weak as high
pressure continues to slide through the region..keeping winds
light and variable. With little cloud cover, light winds, and
drier airmass we`ve had in a while...temperatures have had
little trouble cooling, lows will end up in the upper 50s-near
60.

Today through Monday...

Overall, no notable changes were made to the forecast through
Monday. For today, models remain in good agreement showing that
upper level trough axis continuing to gradually shift east with
time, with flow across the area turning more northwesterly and
ridging tries to build north over the western CONUS. Through the
morning hours, winds are expected to turn more southerly as that
surface high also slides further east and lower pressure develops
over the High Plains. For the far majority of the forecast area,
today/tonight remain dry. During the afternoon hours, models
continue to show a sfc trough axis/frontal boundary looking to
extend from eastern CO northeastward into SErn SD. While there
isn`t any notable upper level forcing expected to move
through...this frontal boundary will provide a focus for
potential thunderstorm development. A warmer airmass building
into the region helps drive temperatures this afternoon back
well into the 80s-low 90s...with models showing the potential
for MLCAPE values near that boundary exceeding 1500 j/kg and
MUCAPE closer to 2000-2500 j/kg. The peak heating of the
afternoon and lower level convergence along that boundary will
aid in the potential for storms...but with the overall lack of
upper forcing, not all models even show any activity developing.
At least some isolated storms are not out of the question, and
kept the low chances (20 percent) going in the forecast this
afternoon-early evening...mainly for areas along/NW of a line
from Lexington to St. Paul. Some of these storms being on the
strong side are not out of the question with gusty winds/small
hail...but the better potential for marginally severe storms
looks to be focused just to our NNE, where deeper layer shear
looks a bit better.

As we get into Monday and Monday night...forecast remains dry
for the entire forecast area. Models showing that the ridge
building over the western CONUS today is a short lived
thing...as another storm system digs south through western
Canada into the Pac NW region, turning flow across the Central
Plains back zonal. Winds are expected to become more solidly
southerly during the day, as low pressure deepens over the High
Plains...but not looking at a notable increase in speeds,
peaking closer to 15 MPH for western portions of the area.
Models continue to show warming 850mb building int the
region...forecast highs see another bump up, currently forecast
to reach the low-mid 90s for most spots. Afternoon thunderstorms
are expected to develop over the High Plains, gradually pushing
east, but fading during the evening with the loss of daytime
heating.

Tuesday and on...

Periodic thunderstorm chances make a return to the forecast
starting on Tuesday and running through the end of the
week...but admittedly the further out in time you go, the lower
the confidence gets in the details of those chances.

Though the forecast does have low end (20-30 percent) chances
creeping into NNW portions of the forecast area during the
afternoon hours on Tuesday...most models suggest that no
mention of precip is needed prior to 00Z...will see how things
trend in the coming days. This first upper level shortwave
disturbance slides out of the Central/Nrn Rockies...pushing the
development of thunderstorms along a surface cold front that
will be approaching the WNW portions of the forecast area late
in the afternoon. Some uncertainty lingers with just how far
south along this boundary things fire, with models showing
warmer mid-level temps/capping having worked back into the area.
A complex of storms looks to organize near the central NE/SD
border late afternoon-early evening...with models then sliding
this activity SE through mainly across the NNE half of the
forecast area, aided by the sfc frontal boundary as well as
convergence along the nose of an increasing southerly LLJ...with
storms more isolated the further south you go. Think this
activity would have the potential to be strong-severe...will
have to see how things trend today/Mon.

Models showing the potential for another shortwave to be quick
on the heels of this Tuesday system...driving the storm
chances continuing into Wed-Wed night. In the forecast, better
chances are Tuesday evening-night (40-50 percent)...with more
uncertainty/differences in models for Wednesday keeping those
chances in the 20-30 percent range. What happens Tue-Tue night
could greatly impact things for Wed (sfc boundary location,
available instability, etc)...so hard to have a ton of
confidence.

Potential remains for additional shortwave disturbances to bring
storm chances to the area Thursday-Saturday...but because of
continued differences in models and lower confidence, those
chances remain at most 20-30 percent.

As far as temperatures go, highs on Tuesday are again in the
90s, with southern areas potentially near 100. Cooler
temperatures work their way in mid-late week thanks to these
disturbances/fronts passing through. Current forecast highs
`bottom out` on Thursday with highs in the mid 70s north to mid
80s south...before climbing back well into the mid 80s-mid 90s
for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR Conditions expected through TAF period. Southerly winds will
become light this evening/tonight. Winds will shift to the
southwest and increase Monday morning. FEW-SCT Mid-Level clouds
are possible through the evening hours.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Davis