000
FXUS63 KGID 282045
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
345 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

A well amplified upper level pattern remains in place across the
CONUS this afternoon, with satellite imagery showing areas of low
pressure spinning over the Midwest region and over southern CA. In
between, ridging extends north from high pressure near the
TX/Mexico border into central Canada, with north-northwesterly
flow over the Central Plains. Been another nice, quiet day across
the area with clear skies. At the surface, a frontal boundary sits
south of the CWA, while high pressure sits over the Northern
Plains. Resultant winds are north-northeast and have been gusty at
times. No big surprises with temperatures, 3 pm obs range from the
mid 60s in the east to the mid-upper 70s in the west-southwest.

Through the rest of the work week and into Saturday, overall there
was not any notable changes needed to the forecast. Aloft, our
area continues to be dominated by that upper level ridge axis,
moving little due to that large cut off low pressure system over
the Midwest. The forecast remains dry. At the surface, a ridge
axis extends south from high pressure shifting east across Canada.
Winds at least briefly turn more light/variable tonight, before
turning more southeasterly tomorrow as the ridge axis moves east
of the CWA. Little change in that is expected through Saturday.

As far as temperatures go, still looking at pleasant conditions
the rest of the week. Slightly cooler tomorrow with highs in the
upper 60s/around 70, with a gradual climb into the mid 70s for
Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Looking at the first half of next week, the potential is there for
a more unsettled pattern, mainly in the Tuesday area. The upper
level ridge axis will finally get a push east, thanks to a large
low pressure system moving toward the west coast. This low looks
to move into the Rockies on Monday, and current run of models in
general have it then sliding into the Dakotas Tues/Wed. 12Z models
show the potential for a weak wave bringing some precip to
southwestern locations Saturday night (currently have 20 PoPs),
but the better chances come with the arrival of the system/better
lift, and accompanying frontal boundary, Tuesday afternoon/night.
Plenty of details yet to work out, and little doubt that there
will be changes in the model timing/location in the coming days.

Expecting a gradual warming trend through the first few days of
the week, with upper 70s/near 80 possible for Mon/Tues. Will
just be dependent on the timing of the system/front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

VFR conditions remain in the forecast for this TAF. Late in the
period, can`t rule out a few lower level clouds creeping in from
the northeast, but at this point not going with any ceiling
restrictions. Northeast winds remain in place this afternoon,
could have some gusts near 20 mph, but speeds look to taper off
later today through the end of the period. More variable direction
will be possible overnight.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...ADP