Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 262358
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
658 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER MUCH OF
THE WESTERN CONUS AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 40KTS
NEAR 30000FT AGL PER 12Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. AT THE
SURFACE AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS NOTED ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW. AS OF 18Z...THIS COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED
OUR AREA AND AS A RESULT...A NORTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND
FIELD HAS OVERTAKEN OUR ENTIRE AREA.

STARTING WITH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN OVERALL LACK IN
OMEGA WOULD SUGGEST DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR AREA.
THAT SAID...THERE ARE HINTS FROM THE 4KM WRF-NMM AND HRRR OF VERY
WEAK...AND ISOLATED...CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. STRATUS REALLY HELD
TEMPERATURE READINGS DOWN THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE
STRATUS IS NOW DISSIPATING AND THOSE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SEEN SOME
SUN ARE SEEING RAPID...ALBEIT EXTREMELY SHALLOW...CU DEVELOPMENT
AS A RESULT OF INCREASING LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES.
POTENTIAL ENERGY SHOULD REMAIN WEAK...LIKELY NO GREATER THAN
100-200J/KG...AND FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM
SUGGEST THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL REMAIN VERY DRY. GIVEN ALL
THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH ISOLATED SPRINKLES ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL
01Z

LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING POST-SUNSET SHOULD RESULT IN A TRULY DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA
SHOULD ALSO PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER...GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS BOTH SUGGEST INCREASING LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERIC
LAPSE RATES COULD PROMOTE ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...PRIMARILY ALONG AND WEST
OF A LINE FROM KODX...TO KGRI AND KK61. THE AFOREMENTIONED LACK IN
OMEGA SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION MORE ISOLATED THAN SCATTERED...BUT
AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...OPTED TO GO AHEAD
WITH 20-40% POPS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING...AGAIN...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
KODX...TO KGRI AND KK61.

SHOULD CONVECTION BE REALIZED LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC
ALL SUGGEST POTENTIAL ENERGY OF ~1000J/KG WILL ACCOMPANY DEEP-
LAYER BULK SHEAR OF ~25KTS. SO ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG
STORM...AND WILL PROVIDE SUCH WORDING IN THE HWO.

LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS WILL PROMOTE
SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS TONIGHT WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S EXPECTED FOR THE MOST
PART TONIGHT. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY-
LAYER WIND FIELD AND RESULTANT THERMAL ADVECTION...WORKING IN
CONCERT WITH INCREASED DIABATIC HEATING WHEN COMPARED TO
TODAY...SHOULD PROMOTE A WARMER DAY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN COMPARED TO
TODAY. HIGHS NEAR 80 ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART ON WEDNESDAY
AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

OVERALL THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES AT LEAST THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE A STABLE DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVES.
NUMEROUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES ROUND OUT THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK
AND VARYING DEGREES OF HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

STARTING OUT THE MID TERM PERIOD BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SHIFTING JUST
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAIN
FLANKED BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS/WAVES TO THE EAST AND THE WEST.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT ON THE SPEED AND
STRENGTH OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH...WITH THE ECMWF BEING
FASTER...WEAKER AND BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH ITS TRACK...THAN THE
GFS SOLUTION.

IT IS THIS WESTERN TROUGH WHICH WILL AIDE IN GENERATING MUCH OF
OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT...COMBINED WITH A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE SPAWNED BY THIS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...A LOW LEVEL JET WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. INSTABILITY WHILE STILL PRESENT DOES DECREASE
OVERNIGHT...AND THUS LOWER SEVERE CHANCES AS WELL.

THURSDAY IS FAR MORE UNCERTAIN. WHILE MODELS ATTEMPT TO DRY OUT
THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...COULD CONVECTION OVERNIGHT LINGER INTO
THE MORNING HOURS? AND WILL LEFT OVER CLOUD COVER HINDER
INSTABILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON? THE SURFACE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST
INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL
FORCING TO AIDE IT. IF SUNSHINE CAN PEAK THROUGH...MODELS SUGGEST
MU CAPE VALUES IN THE 2500 TO 3000 J/KG...WHILE DEWPOINTS SUGGEST
A DRY LINE OF SORTS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. THAT SAID...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS NOT GREAT ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY BETTER THAN YESTERDAYS
MODEL RUN WITH 15 TO 30 KTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SO
AGAIN...SEVERE WEATHER IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT COULD BE HINDERED BY CLOUD COVER. DO THINK THAT
SOME CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL...THUS LOWERED TEMPS JUST A TOUCH
NEAR 80 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES.

AS THE WAVE/TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOWS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
THIS FRONT IS FASTER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND WILL USHER IN A
COLDER DRIER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. RAIN IS AGAIN EXPECTED MUCH
OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...DECREASING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

SATURDAY IS LOOKING MUCH DRIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AS BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEMED TO HAVE SPED UP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
ONSET OF THE DRIER AIR. ALTHOUGH SUPERBLEND LOWERED POPS
CONSIDERABLY FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WENT AHEAD AND MADE A
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT DOWN EVEN FROM SUPERBLEND JUST TO REALLY HIT ON
THIS TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...FINALLY DRIER DAYS SEEM TO BE IN STORE...AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS EAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE REBOUND AGAIN...WITH
HIGHS REACHING NEAR 80 DEGREES BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED OR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL RAMP UP JUST AFTER THE VALID TIME OF THIS
FORECAST. CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH BEFORE 00Z TO INCLUDE
THUNDERSTORMS/PRECIPITATION.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...HEINLEIN


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