000
FXUS63 KGID 082322
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
522 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON HAS BEEN DRIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY.
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT THE WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND START
TO INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT GET TOO
TIGHT DURING THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY DURING THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ON SUNDAY WITH
READINGS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND
WEST WINDS...THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP DOWN TO AROUND 20
PERCENT. WITH WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WILL GO WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
FOR PART OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL FEATURE NORMAL/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND A BRIEF COOL DOWN TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

AS WE START THE WORKWEEK...AN UNSEASONABLY MILD AIRMASS WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS WITH SUBTLE RIDGING/ZONAL FLOW
DURING THE DAY.  H85 TEMPS AVERAGE IN THE DOUBLE DIGITS CELSIUS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING JUST ABOVE THIS AND AFTN HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 60S TO MID 70S STILL LOOK REASONABLE. TEMPS MAY STEADY
IN THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD COVER AS JET STARTS
SHIFTING SOUTHWARD DURING THE AFTN.

THE FORECAST TURNS MORE INTERESTING TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES SE FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPS SOUTHEAST.  THREE HOUR
PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT AVERAGE 3 TO 5MB AND IN A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT...STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH GUSTS
OVER 30 MPH EXPECTED.  PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN IN DYNAMICS/MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE SYSTEM WITH MODELS PRETTY CONSISTENT
WITH A BAND OF PCPN MOVING THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS THE MOST
ROBUST WITH QPF AMOUNTS AND STRONGER WITH THE H7 WAVE.  WITH WARM
DAYTIME TEMPS...HAVE INITIAL PCPN TYPE AS RAIN...BUT AS COLD AIR
DEEPENS BEHIND THE FRONT...A R/S MIX OR BRIEF CHANGE TO SNOW IS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM
WITH HEIGHTS RISING W/E. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD SEE DRY
CONDITIONS IN A NW FLOW REGIME ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.  FOR NEXT
WEEK...HAVE LEFT SATURDAY DRY BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES TOWARDS THE SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 522 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CLEAR SKIES WILL BE NOTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT
PERIODIC HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS NEAR 20000FT AGL CANNOT BE RULED OUT
HEADING INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BUT INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT
AROUND 17KTS...GUSTING TO AROUND 25KTS...DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT EXPECTED AT GRI THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING TO AROUND 70 DEGREES RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO AROUND 20 PERCENT IN THE WESTERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WEST WINDS AROUND 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WILL GO
WITH A WATCH FOR THE AREA TO THE WEST OF AN ORD TO FRANKLIN LINE
AND INCLUDING PHILLIPS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR NEZ039-046-060-061-072>074-082>084.

KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR KSZ005.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...BRYANT
FIRE WEATHER...JCB