Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 010836
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
336 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014

MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE FORECAST TODAY ARE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES...
AND BOTH OF THESE WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW DEEP WE MIX DURING
THE DAY. THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED A TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST
WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF CA...AND A TROUGH THRU THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH A CLOSED LOW IN TENNESSEE. IN BETWEEN...UPPER RIDGING
WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE WAS DEEPENING OVER THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS REGION AND A
SURFACE RIDGE WAS ORIENTED BETWEEN THE MS AND MO RIVERS. ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF THE WESTERN TROUGH...SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW HAD SET UP EARLY TONIGHT.

IN THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE
WEST AND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THIS MORNING AND WILL BE WINDY/GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM/GFS INDICATE MIXING AROUND
H9 OR H875 WHEREAS THE RAP MIXES HIGHER...AROUND H85. WINDS AT THE
TOP OF THE LAYER RANGE FROM 30KTS AROUND H9 TO 38KTS OR SO AT
H875. HARD TO TELL WHICH MODEL WILL VERIFY BUT DID TREND WINDS UP
BASED ON THE RAP AND EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING WITH GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 30 MPH POSSIBLE THRU THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT UPON MIXING AND DID TREND READINGS
UP A FEW DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE 50S.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE STILL LOOKING MARGINAL AS LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST AOA 25 PERCENT. THE SUSTAINED WINDS AND
WIND GUSTS WILL BE AT FIRE CRITERIA AND FUELS ARE FAVORABLE...BUT
JUST DO NOT HAVE RH VALUES LOW ENOUGH ATTM AND CONDITIONS...ARE
STILL BORDERLINE FOR MENTION IN THE HWO. THE LOWEST RH VALUES ARE
PROGGED ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WHERE DPS WILL BE LOWER AND THIS
IS STILL SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON TODAY.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND WINDS
WILL REMAIN STEADY/GUSTY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT NOT QUITE THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE AFTERNOON.  THE STEADY WINDS WILL HELP HOLD TEMPS
IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S FOR OVERNIGHT READINGS AND A MOISTURE AXIS
WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO OUR WESTERN CWA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
MIGRATING EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND WINDS
ALOFT ARE LIGHTER SO EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY BUT
SHOULD NOT BE TOO STRONG. WITH SUNSHINE AND WARM ADVECTION THE
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S AND EVEN THE LOWER 70S.

SUNDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA AND A SURFACE
LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ON MONDAY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN
THE SOUTHEAST NEAR THE FRONT. THE MUCAPE INCREASES IN THE AFTERNOON
TO AROUND 500 J/KG SO WILL KEEP SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
FINALLY PUSHES TO THE EAST.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THERE WILL BE NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE
A WEAK PATTERN WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON SATURDAY IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...IN BETWEEN A
TROUGH ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS AND A SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
OVER 20KTS AND GUST OVER 30KTS. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...FAY



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