000
FXUS63 KGID 130555
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1155 PM CST THU DEC 12 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU DEC 12 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL FOR
SOME FOG TONIGHT.

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CLEAR SKIES ALLOW THE CURRENT SNOW PACK TO SHOW QUITE
WELL FOR A PRETTY GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES ARE ALLOWING SOME OF THE SNOW TO MELT.

A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL
DRIFT TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT
WINDS AND WITH SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR...THE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF
THIS EVENING. AFTER THERE WAS SOME SNOW MELT THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
SOME CONCERN THERE MAY BE A LITTLE PATCHY FOG MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FRIDAY MORNING THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. MODELS HAVE DIFFERENCES IN HOW MUCH COLD AIR IS
BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE NAM COOLS ONLY SLIGHTLY...BUT THE GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH ARE COLDER. HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S FOR THE MOST PART. EXPECT THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME SNOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE SNOW.

IN ADDITION TO THE WEAK COLD FRONT THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE
THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY. THE MAIN ENERGY
IS FURTHER SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SO EXPECT THERE TO
BE DRY CONDITIONS...BUT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CST THU DEC 12 2013

THIS COLD PATTERN IS IN THE PROCESS OF RELEASING ITS ICY GRIP ON THE
REGION. JUST LOOK AT WHERE TEMPS CURRENTLY ARE IN AREAS WITH NO SNOW
ON THE GROUND. THIS INTERRUPTION TO THE ABNORMAL COLD WILL BECOME
MORE SIGNIFICANT...PROBABLY CLIMAXING NEXT WED. THEN BITTER COLD
RETURNS BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN HOW LONG IT LINGERS.

ALOFT: NW FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS THRU TUE...WITH A
RIDGE IN THE W AND THE TROF IN THE E. WED A TROF /CURRENTLY OVER AK/
WILL DROP INTO THE PAC NW AND ONTO THE PLAINS THU.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE THRU THE REGION SAT. WITH NW FLOW...
THE POLAR FRONT WILL OSCILLATE ACROSS THE REGION AS A PARADE OF LOWS
TRACK ALONG IT. THE FIRST VERY WEAK LOW WILL RACE BY SAT...PUTTING
US ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL SAG BACK INTO THE
REGION MON WITH HIGH PRES FOLLOWING TUE. THEN IT IS BACK TO THE WARM
SECTOR WED. THEN THE NEXT MAJOR COLD BLAST IS SLATED TO ARRIVE THU
AND THIS WILL SHOVE THE FRONT FAR TO THE S.

HAZARDS: NOTHING ENVISIONED AT THIS TIME.

POSSIBLE MAJOR WEAKNESS IN THIS FCST: BELIEVE WE ARE WAY TOO COOL ON
DAYTIME HIGHS SUN-WED. THU TEMPS ARE UNCERTAIN DUE TO A STRONG COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THE TEMP FCST WILL BE TENUOUS AS WE DEAL WITH THE OSCILLATING FRONT
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SUGGEST AVOIDING ANY GFS-DERIVED TEMPS VIA 2M
TEMPS OR MEX GUIDANCE NEXT TUE-WED. THE GFS RUNS CONTINUE TO BE
60-120M LOWER AT 500 MB NEXT TUE...ALLOWING FOR A COOLER SCENARIO.
THIS IS CAPPING OUR FCST TEMPS. BELIEVE THE WARMER EC/GEM AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES ARE THE WAY TO GO AND THIS MEANS WE COULD BE WARMING IT UP
BIG-TIME THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT: COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
/OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA/ AND BRISK N WINDS.

SAT: DECREASING CLOUDS. TEMPS COLDER THAN NORMAL.

SUN: THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM FRONT. THE GFS IS BY FAR THE HEAVIEST WITH CEILINGS LOW
ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY THREATEN SOME TRACE PRECIP. THIS COMPLICATES THE
TEMP FCST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME 50S SNEAKING INTO THE
WRN FRINGES OF THE FCST AREA /LEXINGTON-STOCKTON KS/.

MON: QUIET AND DRY.

TUE-WED: WARM SECTOR. SUNNY. THE PREFERENCE CONTINUES TO LIE WITH
THE EC AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN. AM SEEING POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF BUT
SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP...NOT TOO DISSIMILAR TO 12/1-2...WHEN GRAND
ISLAND HIT 50F AND 65F RESPECTIVELY.

12/19-21: THE PROBABILITY IS VERY HIGH AND CONFIDENCE IS ALSO HIGH
THAT ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC COLD ARRIVES IN THIS TIME-FRAME. EC
ENSEMBLES NOW INDICATE THIS COULD BE BRIEF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST THU DEC 12 2013

WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL AS THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION
SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT MUCH VISIBILITY RESTRICTION.
A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTRODUCE STRATUS.
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
TERMINAL...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEED BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WITH CONSIDERABLE COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN