


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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634 FXUS63 KGID 152044 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 344 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A line of strong to severe storms is expected to power through a good portion of the area from northwest to southeast between 8PM and 2AM tonight. - Strong to damaging winds up to 60-70 MPH will be the primary concern tonight with large hail or an isolated tornado possible. Areas of greatest impacts will likely fall earlier in the evening/night and for areas concentrated towards the northwest. - Storms, potentially severe, will be possible again Wednesday evening/night with the greatest potential towards the south. Storm initiation will be highly depended of placement of cold front. - A cool down Wednesday and Thursday should cap highs in the 70s, quickly warming up for the weekend and for likely most of next week in the mid 80s and 90s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 343 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 ...Tonight... Deepening low pressure over the eastern rockies has driven steady southerly winds near 15-20 MPH, gusting as high as 25-30 MPH this afternoon across the area. These winds have helped pump in some warm, moist air, helping lift highs into the 90s with a few of our southwestern areas approaching 100 degrees. The transport of moist air up from the south today has allowed dewpoints to top out in the upper 60s to low 70s. This hot and humid air mass has additionally helped inflate afternoon instability with CAPE values up to near 2,000-3,000J/kg. Though deep layer shear does not look too overly impressive (less than 30kts of bulk shear), the presence of an upper level shortwave disturbance moving in overhead paired with a surface cold front dropping southeast off the Nebraska sandhills late this evening and tonight, should provide ample forcing to support convective initiation. A MCS (line or cluster of storms) is expected to erupt across northern to northwestern Nebraska this afternoon (3-6PM), racing east to southeast and into much of central Nebraska and likely a few parts of north central Kansas. This system should reach our area between mainly 8PM and 2AM (a time range generally agreed upon by most CAMs), starting northwest and passing to the southeast. Given the favorable thermal/moisture environment this afternoon, an enhanced risk of severe weather (level 3 of 5) is in place across our northwestern tier of counties (Areas northwest of a line from northern Gosper to western Nance counties) with a slight risk (level 2 of 5) stretching across the rest of our nebraska and a few of our northern Kansas areas. The primary threat from these storms will be the presence of strong to damaging wind gusts up to 60-70 MPH along the initial arrival of storms. Large hail, though not the primary concern, up to the size of golf balls may still be possible in a few spots. An isolated tornado can`t be ruled out either, though this is by no means our main concern for tonight. The strongest punch from this system will likely occur earlier on in the evening/night with grater probability and impacts likely concentrated in areas toward the northwest, closer to where the storms initialize. The presence of a modest LLJ (25-40kts) could enhance convergence along the leading edge, allowing storms to keep their composure and potentially extending their lifetime. The question remains on how far south these storm will progress? The latest HRRR/RAP/NAMNEST guidance suggest this boundary`s edge to fall close to the state line. Models remain in fair agreement with the timing and location of these storms, though there is still some mesoscale uncertainty in identifying where the exact location of any narrower and potentially more intense swath of wind gusts in association with the storm`s leading edge, will end up. Light showers may linger behind the initial line of storms up to a few hours, spreading rainfall amounts up to between mainly 0.5-1" with greater amounts concentrated generally towards the north. ...Wednesday & Thursday... A few lingering early AM showers may be observed Wednesday morning for a few of our eastern areas, though the fast moving nature of the overnight system does not suggest for showers to stick around all that long into the morning. The placement of the cold front in the afternoon will greatly determine how far north storms will be able to develop Wednesday afternoon to night. Generally the best chances will be concentrated towards the south, the direction where storms will be heading. Higher than normal model uncertainty makes it challenging to narrow down PoPs across our northern and central areas. The HRRR and the RAP models keep this boundary further north, signaling developing storms over the I-80 corridor, though the NAMNEST and global models (GFS/ECMWF) place this boundary further south, closer to northern Kansas. If this secondary scenario plays out, in theory, the northern half of our area should stay fairly dry, with storms limited to our Kansas and far southern Nebraska areas. A few of these storms will have the ability to become severe. A marginal risk (level 1 of 5) remains in place for the full area besides a the northern half of Valley/Greeley counties. Though impacts will likely not be as widespread as tonight`s event. Damaging winds up to 60 MPH with large hail will still be a concern. Overall, the better severe potential should lie towards the south where longer prefrontal residence time as well as warmer temperatures and greater dewpoint should lie, leading to increased instability. Following the frontal passage late Tonight and Wednesday, cooler air for July standards (15-20 degrees below normal) will fill in from the north, reaching our far northwest portions of the area Wednesday and the entire area on Thursday. Highs Wednesday will range the low 70s in the northwest, down to the 80s to low 90s for our Kansas and far eastern Nebraska areas. Temperatures Thursday will feel fantastic as highs drop down to the low to mid 70s areawide. Thursday will likely become the coolest day in the next week, so be sure to take advantage. A few nighttime pop-up storms (20-30%) could bud into parts of north central Kansas and far southeast Nebraska late Thursday night. ...Friday and Beyond... Temperatures will raise sharply once again starting Friday as a southern warm air advection pattern returns to the area, shoveling up a more hot and humid airmass. Highs for the weekend will range the mid 80s to mid 90s. Afternoon to nighttime storm chances between 20-50% return each night through next Tuesday with the greatest potential falling Friday (35-50%) and Saturday (30-40%) nights. A broad ridging pattern down south next week with the jet mainly staying across the Northern Plains increases the likeliness for increasing and lingering heat (highs often in the 90s most days). Storm chances each day will become fairly dependent on how amplified the fairly zonal upper-level flow may become. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: A complex situation is expected to unfold tonight as strong to severe storms look likely to power though the terminals between 3z and 6z with lingering lighter showers possible following the initially punch through 8z. Impacts may first be felt at KEAR around 30-60 minutes prior to KGRI. The gustiest winds and lowest visibility from the heaviest rainfall will likely fall within the first hour of when the storms initially arrive. Gusts up to 50-60kts may be briefly possible, though not a guarantee. Winds this afternoon begin from the south between 15-20kts and gust as high as 25-30kts. A cold front passage associated with the line of storms will abruptly swap the southerly winds to to north, lightening up to near 10-15kt following the storms passage. Clouds will increase in coverage a few hours before the storms arrive, gradually lowering cloud bases and ceilings between the range 6-12kft. There is about 70% confidence that MVFR conditions will hold out through a vast portion of the morning hours after the storms pass. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Stump AVIATION...Stump