Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 272049

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
249 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 244 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Focus tonight is on increasing low cloud cover and fog potential
in our northern and eastern zones.

Flow aloft will transition southwesterly ahead of an upper trough
moving into the northern and central Rockies. Southerly low level
flow will increase ahead of the approaching system with moisture
being drawn north into the Central Plains. An area of low
clouds/stratus on the leading edge of the moisture was evident on
satellite across central Kansas today. Short term models are
consistent with the low clouds lifting north and east overnight
with our eastern zones along the edge of the low cloud cover.
Models are also in agreement on the potential for visibility
restrictions in fog along the stratus across our eastern/northern
zones. The HRRR is very aggressive with some low visibilities/dense
fog potential several hours tonight and will hit fog potential a
little harder in the forecast and HWO. Visibilities improve early
Tuesday with the passage of a surface trough and cold front.

The cold front moves through right away in the morning with cool air
advection more prominent in our northwest zones during the day and
have backed off on high temperatures. Models are not in great
agreement on whether or not we will see much in the way of
precipitation with this system Tuesday/Tuesday evening. Cannot
ignore the mid level frontogenesis and lift associated with the
shortwave trough moving through Tuesday afternoon and evening and
have followed closer to the GFS and ARW and included precipitation
chances beginning in our Neb counties and spreading southeast
during the day/evening. Precipitation type should be rain for the
most part but could see a brief mix of rain/snow and possibly a
change to snow before the precipitation ends.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 244 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Conditions dry out out overnight Tuesday night behind the departing
trough axis. The pattern aloft transitions to a northwest flow
regime and at the surface, high pressure builds east of the high
plains. Wednesday is shaping up to be a dry, windy day with the
potential for critical or near critical fire weather conditions. A
tight pressure gradient and deep mixing will result in windy
conditions with west/northwest gusts over 30 mph. Have trended
dewpoints lower Wednesday afternoon and have roughly the southern
third of our cwa with low relative humidity values around 20
percent. Will continue to mention the near critical fire weather
potential in the HWO but have held off on headline as confidence is
not high enough that low relative humidity will be below 20 percent
for three hours.

Beyond Wednesday, we are looking for a continuation of dry weather
with temperatures trending above normal. Heights rise aloft, then
flow turns zonal over the weekend and weekend temperatures are
still favorable to reach the 60s. A trough passage and cold front
cool things down for Monday. Have kept things dry for now heading
into next week as precipitation chances look minimal.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1124 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Cloud cover will be on the increase with low clouds lifting north
from Kansas and mid cloud cover moving in from the west. With an
increase in southerly flow and low level moisture tonight a period
of reduced visibilities in fog is possible prior to the passage of
a surface trough and cold front. The HRRR suggests timing of the
visibility restrictions generally between 05Z and 09Z and more so
for KGRI than KEAR and will monitor trends for dense fog
potential. An increasing low level jet tonight will also bring a
period of low level wind shear for both terminals. Heading into
Tuesday, a cold frontal passage will bring a wind shift to the
northwest around mid morning. Cannot rule out the chance for light
rain around the 18z time frame but this is not reflected in the
tafs just yet.





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