Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
400 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 2...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR THE HASTINGS HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA /HSA/. IN
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS OUTLOOK INCLUDES THE
PLATTE...LOUP...LITTLE BLUE...AND REPUBLICAN RIVERS AND THEIR
TRIBUTARIES. IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...THE SOLOMON RIVER AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES ARE INCLUDED.

...THE POTENTIAL FOR SPRING FLOODING IS BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS A
MAJORITY OF THE AREA...

...SHORT TERM HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...MARCH 6TH - MARCH 31ST...

THERE IS CURRENTLY NO APPRECIABLE SNOW COVER ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA
AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH MARCH 20TH IS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE CHANCE OF SNOW MELT OR PRECIPITATION-INDUCED
FLOODING THROUGH AT LEAST MID MARCH IS LOW AND EVEN BELOW
HISTORICAL NORMS. HOWEVER...THE PLATTE AND LOUP RIVERS RUNNING EAST
OF HIGHWAY 281 STILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF ICE WITHIN THE
RIVER. THEREFORE...THE POTENTIAL OF ICE JAM FLOODING IS STILL
PRESENT FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL MOST OF THE ICE MELTS AND WORKS ITS
WAY DOWNSTREAM. EXPECT MOST OF THE ICE TO BE GONE ALONG WITH ANY
REMAINING THREAT OF ICE JAMS BY MARCH 15TH. RIVERS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE
TO ICE JAM FLOODING PRIOR TO MARCH 15TH INCLUDE THE LOUP AND PLATTE
RIVERS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.

THE FROST DEPTH ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS OF MARCH
6TH WAS STILL OVER 20 INCHES...WITH SLIGHTLY LESS FROST DEPTH ACROSS
NORTHERN KANSAS. ANY HEAVY RAIN EVENTS PRIOR TO THE GROUND THAWING
WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. THE GROUND
SHOULD GRADUALLY THAW AS WE HEAD INTO MID MARCH. THE PRECIPITATION
OUTLOOK THROUGH MARCH 20TH IS CALLING FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION
SO DESPITE THE SIGNIFICANT FROST DEPTH...THE POTENTIAL OF RUNOFF
FLOODING REMAINS LOW.

...LONG TERM HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...APRIL 1ST THROUGH JUNE 6TH...

THE POTENTIAL FOR SPRING FLOODING IS BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS A MAJORITY
OF THE AREA.

SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOKS ARE ROUTINELY ISSUED FROM FEBRUARY THROUGH
MARCH TO GIVE ADVANCED NOTICE OF POSSIBLE FLOODING.  THEY ARE BASED
ON SOIL MOISTURE...SNOWPACK MAGNITUDE...STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS...AND
THE LONG RANGE FORECAST OF FUTURE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
PATTERNS.

THE LONG RANGE THREE MONTH PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK INDICATES FAIRLY
EQUAL CHANCES OF SEEING ABOVE NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ACROSS MOST OF OUR OUTLOOK AREA

CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL TO MUCH
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. THE UNITED STATES
DROUGHT MONITOR PLACES OUR ENTIRE HSA IN ABNORMALLY DRY TO SEVERE
DROUGHT WITH THE MOST SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES.

THE ONLY RIVER WITHIN THE HASTINGS HSA THAT ORIGINATES DEEP IN THE
ROCKIES AND IS FED BY SPRING SNOW MELT IS THE PLATTE RIVER. AFTER
TWO DRY YEARS WITH BELOW NORMAL SNOW PACK...THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS
WITHIN THE PLATTE RIVER BASIN ARE ACTUALLY RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH SNOW PACK THIS YEAR. THE PROJECTED SPRING AND SUMMER
STREAMFLOW FORECAST IN THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...THE RESERVOIRS ALONG THE PLATTE
RIVER ARE GENERALLY RUNNING BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE RECENT DROUGHT.
THUS HIGH WATER OR FLOODING FROM MOUNTAIN SNOW MELT RUN OFF IS
UNLIKELY.

AFTER CONSIDERING ALL OF THE ABOVE-MENTIONED FACTORS...THE OVERALL
FORECAST FOR A MAJORITY OF OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA IS TO
EXPECT A BELOW NORMAL CHANCE OF SEEING SPRING FLOODING. HOWEVER...IT
IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT EVEN IN DRY PERIODS...LOCALIZED
FLOODING AND ESPECIALLY FLASH FLOODING ARE STILL POSSIBLE FROM
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL GENERATED BY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.


...CLIMATOLOGICAL REVIEW...

BEFORE TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT MORE RECENT PRECIPITATION
TRENDS...LETS START WITH A LOOK BACK AT HOW THINGS FARED DURING THE
YEAR 2013 ACROSS THE 30-COUNTY NWS HASTINGS COVERAGE AREA (24
COUNTIES IN NEBRASKA...6 IN KANSAS). IN A NUTSHELL...ALTHOUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA FELL AT LEAST SLIGHTLY SHORT OF 30-YEAR NORMAL
PRECIPITATION DURING THE YEAR...MOST PLACES WERE NOT NEARLY AS DRY
AS THEY WERE DURING THE SIGNIFICANT DROUGHT THAT DEFINED 2012. PUT
ANOTHER WAY...BACK IN 2012 MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA ONLY OBSERVED
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 40-80 PERCENT OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING
THE DRIEST YEAR ON RECORD AT PLACES SUCH AS GRAND ISLAND AIRPORT.
DURING 2013...AT LEAST MODEST IMPROVEMENTS TO THE DROUGHT SITUATION
TOOK PLACE AS THE MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL AREA MEASURED ANNUAL
PRECIPITATION TOTALS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 75-105 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
THAT BEING SAID...THERE WAS A RATHER PRONOUNCED DIFFERENCE IN 2013
ANNUAL PRECIPITATION BETWEEN THE ROUGHLY THE SOUTHWESTERN ONE-THIRD
OF THE AREA (WHICH ONLY AVERAGED 65-80 PERCENT OF NORMAL) AND
ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST ONE-THIRD OF THE AREA (GENERALLY 95-115
PERCENT OF NORMAL). IN BETWEEN...CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA
INCLUDING THE NEBRASKA TRI-CITIES MEASURED VERY NEAR-NORMAL ANNUAL
PRECIPITATION. AS EVIDENCE OF THE SOUTHWEST (DRIER) VERSUS NORTHEAST
(WETTER) DISPARITY DURING 2013...A FEW OF THE DRIEST NWS COOPERATIVE
OBSERVER SITES DURING 2013 INCLUDED PHILLIPSBURG KS WITH ONLY 16.17
INCHES (9.25 INCHES BELOW NORMAL) AND EIGHT MILES SOUTH OF ELWOOD
WITH 17.07 INCHES (6.36 INCHES BELOW NORMAL). IN CONTRAST...FARTHER
NORTHEAST A FEW OF THE WETTEST STATIONS DURING 2013 WERE TWO MILES
WEST OF GENOA WITH 33.35 INCHES (4.53 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL) AND ST.
PAUL WITH 30.38 INCHES (4.17 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL).

AS A RESULT OF THE 2013 PRECIPITATION TRENDS DESCRIBED ABOVE...THE
OVERALL-POSITIVE NEWS DURING THE YEAR WAS THAT MODEST IMPROVEMENT IN
DROUGHT CONDITIONS TOOK PLACE DURING 2013...BASED ON DROUGHT
CLASSIFICATION ASSIGNED BY THE WEEKLY U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR.
HOWEVER...THIS IMPROVEMENT WAS MORE PRONOUNCED WITHIN THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA THAN IN THE WEST. MORE SPECIFICALLY...WHEN 2013
BEGAN...NEARLY THE ENTIRE WAS CLASSIFIED IN EITHER CATEGORY D3
EXTREME OR CATEGORY D4 EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (THE WORST-POSSIBLE
CATEGORY). HOWEVER...BY YEAR`S END...THE ENTIRE AREA WAS VOID OF
BOTH D3 AND D4 DROUGHT...ALTHOUGH CATEGORY D1 MODERATE AND CATEGORY
D2 SEVERE DROUGHT CONTINUED TO HOLD ON WITHIN MUCH OF THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA...OR ROUGHLY WITHIN COUNTIES WEST OF THE HIGHWAY
281 CORRIDOR.

NOW THAT PRECIPITATION DURING 2013 HAS BEEN ANALYZED...ITS TIME TO
EXAMINE MORE RECENT TRENDS...SPECIFICALLY WHAT TRANSPIRED DURING THE
METEOROLOGICAL WINTER THAT JUST ENDED (METEOROLOGICAL WINTER IS
DEFINED AS THE ENTIRE CALENDAR MONTHS OF DEC-JAN-FEB).
UNFORTUNATELY...THE NEWS HAS NOT BEEN ALL THAT ENCOURAGING FOR
FURTHER DROUGHT RELIEF...AS THE MAJORITY OF THE 30-COUNTY AREA
ONLY OBSERVED BETWEEN 25-65 PERCENT OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION BETWEEN
DEC 1-FEB 28. PUT ANOTHER WAY...MOST PLACES FELL BETWEEN 0.50 AND
1.50 INCHES SHORT OF NORMAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION DURING
METEOROLOGICAL WINTER. ONE OF THE MAIN REASONS FOR THE OVERALL-DRY
WINTER WAS THAT MOST SNOW EVENTS WERE FAIRLY LIGHT IN NATURE...AND
MUCH OF THE SNOW THAT FELL WAS DRY AND POWDERY THANKS TO BEING
ACCOMPANIED BY VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...AS OPPOSED TO HEAVIER/WET
SNOW THAT CONTAINS MORE LIQUID MOISTURE. AS OF MARCH 5TH...THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA HAS ONLY OBSERVED A FEW SNOW EVENTS OF 2-6 INCH
MAGNITUDE...AND ONLY VERY SMALL PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAVE SEEN A
MORE SIGNIFICANT SINGLE SNOWFALL OF 7 INCHES OR HIGHER. AS EVIDENCE
OF HOW DRY THE WINTER WAS AS A WHOLE...THE SEASONAL TOTAL OF 0.76
INCHES AT CENTRAL NEBRASKA REGIONAL AIRPORT IN GRAND ISLAND WAS ONLY
42 PERCENT OF THE WINTER NORMAL OF 1.84 INCHES. THIS RESULTED IN THE
9TH-DRIEST ON RECORD OUT OF 119 YEARS DATING TO 1895-1896.
HOWEVER...ONE ONLY HAS TO GO BACK A SHORT TIME TO THE METEOROLOGICAL
WINTER OF 2005-2006 TO FIND A DRIER ONE...WHICH ONLY HAD 0.72
INCHES. HOWEVER...IN KEEPING RECENT PRECIPITATION TRENDS IN
PERSPECTIVE...PLEASE NOTE THAT NO MATTER HOW MUCH OR HOW LITTLE
PRECIPITATION FALLS DURING THE WINTER...IT USUALLY ONLY ACCOUNTS FOR
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT OF ANNUAL LIQUID MOISTURE. IN OTHER
WORDS...SPRING AND SUMMER RAINS HAVE A MUCH LARGER IMPACT ON ANNUAL
PRECIPITATION TOTALS AND DROUGHT TRENDS THAN WINTER SNOWS.

THE TABLE BELOW HIGHLIGHTS PRECIPITATION TOTALS AND DEPARTURES FROM
NORMAL/PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR METEOROLOGICAL WINTER...COVERING DEC
1ST-FEB 28TH (PLEASE NOTE: THESE STATISTICS DO NOT INCLUDE ANY
PRECIPITATION SO FAR IN EARLY-MARCH). THE TABLE INCLUDES DATA FOR 31
LOCATIONS SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE LOCAL AREA...MOST OF WHICH ARE
NWS COOPERATIVE OBSERVER SITES...ALONG WITH A FEW PRIMARY AIRPORT
SITES:


 LOCATION           PRECIP
NORTH CENTRAL KS  DEC 1-FEB 28    NORMAL   DEPARTURE  % NORMAL
--------           --------       ------   ---------  --------
ALTON 2SW            0.97          2.16      -1.19       45
BELOIT               1.01          2.28      -1.27       44
BURR OAK             1.46          2.11      -0.65       69
LOGAN                0.67          1.71      -1.04       39
NATOMA               0.88          2.41      -1.53       36
PHILLIPSBURG         0.90          1.88      -0.98       48
PLAINVILLE 4WNW      1.45          2.10      -0.65       69
SMITH CENTER         1.42          1.73      -0.31       82


  LOCATION          PRECIP
SOUTH CENTRAL NE  DEC 1-FEB 28    NORMAL   DEPARTURE  % NORMAL
--------           --------       ------   ---------  --------
AURORA 4N            0.56          2.22      -1.66       25
CAMBRIDGE            1.31          1.59      -0.28       82
LEXINGTON 6SSE       0.74          1.33      -0.59       56
CENTRAL CITY         0.63          2.26      -1.63       28
CLAY CENTER 6ESE     0.61          1.91      -1.30       32
ELWOOD 8S            1.18          1.69      -0.51       70
FRANKLIN             1.15          1.89      -0.74       61
GENOA 2W             0.64          2.21      -1.57       29
GENEVA               0.37          1.92      -1.55       19
GOTHENBURG           0.90          1.36      -0.46       66
GRAND ISLAND ARPT    0.76          1.84      -1.08       41
GREELEY              0.22          1.88      -1.66       12
HASTINGS AIRPORT     0.85          1.51      -0.66       56
HEBRON               0.64          2.44      -1.80       26
HOLDREGE             1.19          1.65      -0.46       72
KEARNEY AIRPORT      0.74          1.61      -0.87       46
NELSON               0.77          2.14      -1.37       36
ORD AIRPORT          0.25          1.40      -1.15       18
OSCEOLA              0.63          2.25      -1.62       28
RAVENNA              0.63          1.66      -1.03       38
RED CLOUD            0.94          1.72      -0.78       55
ST.PAUL              0.73          1.60      -0.87       45
SUPERIOR 4E          1.18          2.32      -1.14       51
YORK 3N              1.08          2.91      -1.83       37


CONCLUDING THE CLIMATOLOGICAL REVIEW WITH A LOOK AT SOIL
TEMPERATURES...AS OF MARCH 4TH: SOIL TEMPERATURES AT A 4-INCH DEPTH
ACROSS MOST OF THE NWS HASTINGS COVERAGE AREA RANGED FROM 25-30
DEGREES...WHICH IS ROUGHLY 5-7 DEGREES LOWER THAN TWO WEEKS AGO AS
A RESULT OF THE RECENT VERY COLD WEATHER.


...CLIMATOLOGICAL OUTLOOK...

LOOKING AHEAD...AND STARTING WITH THE SHORT TERM WEATHER FORECAST
OVER THE NEXT WEEK...THE MAIN THEME IS ONE OF MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THERE WILL BE A TURN
TOWARD SEASONABLY MILDER...NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS...WITH THE
WARMEST DAYS CURRENTLY LOOKING LIKE SUNDAY MARCH 9TH-TUESDAY MARCH
12TH. DURING THIS TIME FRAME...HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S AND 60S ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST.  MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DURING
THE NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE IN THE 20S AND 30S. FOR
COMPARISON...BASED ON 30-YEAR NORMALS...HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS PART OF MARCH TYPICALLY AVERAGE IN THE MID-40S TO LOW-50S
AREA-WIDE. AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE MAJORITY OF THE
TIME...THE MAIN WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR AT LEAST LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND/OR RAIN ARE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT MARCH
7TH-8TH AND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MARCH 11TH-12TH. AT THIS
TIME...NEITHER ONE OF THESE WEATHER SYSTEM APPEAR VERY
SIGNIFICANT...WITH LIQUID PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR MOST AREAS
DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS AVERAGING AROUND 0.20 INCHES OR LESS.

LOOKING OUT A BIT FARTHER...THE LATEST 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER VALID FROM MARCH 13TH-19TH FAVORS
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA...BUT ALSO
SLIGHTLY FAVORS BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. FOCUSING ON THE UPCOMING
MONTH OF MARCH AS A WHOLE...THE LATEST ONE MONTH CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER OUTLOOK DEPICTS EQUAL CHANCES OF HAVING ABOVE...NEAR...OR
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...BUT NOW SLIGHTLY FAVORS BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE EQUAL CHANCES FORECAST MEANS THERE IS NO CLEAR
TREND IN THE FORECAST ANALYSIS TO SUPPORT ONE OF THESE OUTCOMES OVER
ANOTHER. NORMAL MARCH HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NWS HASTINGS
COVERAGE AREA GRADUALLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S BY MONTHS
END. AVERAGE DAILY LOW TEMPERATURES IN MARCH GRADUALLY INCREASE TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES. PRECIPITATION-WISE...NORMAL MARCH PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TYPICALLY RANGES FROM AROUND 1.40 INCHES IN
THE WESTERN-MOST COUNTIES...UP TO AROUND 2.10 INCHES IN FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES ALONG AND NEAR HIGHWAY 81.

LOOKING AHEAD OVER THE SPRING MONTHS OF MARCH-APRIL-MAY AS A
WHOLE...THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER THREE-MONTH SEASONAL
OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO CALL FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF OBSERVING ABOVE
NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL VALUES IN BOTH THE
PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENTS. IN OTHER WORDS...LONG
RANGE FORECAST MODELS JUST DO NOT GIVE ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL TO SUPPORT
ONE OF THESE OUTCOMES OVER ANOTHER. PART OF THIS LACK OF MORE
DEFINITIVE PREDICTABILITY IN SPRING PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE TRENDS
INVOLVES THE FACT THAT LARGE-SCALE WEATHER PATTERNS THROUGH AT LEAST
SPRING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE SUMMER WILL CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED
BY A NEUTRAL ENSO STATE...MEANING THAT THERE IS NO ONGOING EL NINO
OR LA NINA IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC.
HOWEVER...BY THE SUMMER MONTHS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A GRADUAL
CHANGE FROM NEUTRAL ENSO STATE TO EL NINO COULD OCCUR. DESPITE THE
LACK OF PREDICTABILITY REGARDING HOW THE UPCOMING SPRING MIGHT
TURN OUT...30-YEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM MARCH-MAY ACROSS THE
NWS HASTINGS AREA TYPICALLY RANGES FROM 7-10 INCHES...WITH THE
LOWEST AMOUNTS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 183...AND THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS NEAR AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 81.

TURNING TO THE LATEST U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER AND VALID THROUGH THE END OF MAY...THERE
IS SOME POSITIVE NEWS TO CONSIDER. ALTHOUGH THIS OUTLOOK CALL FOR
DROUGHT TO CONTINUE TO AT LEAST SOME EXTENT THROUGH THE
SPRING...SOME DEGREE OF IMPROVEMENT IS ALSO EXPECTED. SHOULD THIS
IMPROVED DROUGHT TENDENCY COME TO FRUITION...SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE NWS HASTINGS AREA MAY SHAKE LOOSE OF CATEGORY D2
SEVERE DROUGHT DURING THE SPRING SEASON.

THE LONGER-RANGE FORECASTS REFERENCED ABOVE ARE BASED ON THE OUTPUT
FROM NUMEROUS FORECAST MODELS AS WELL AS FORECASTER EXPERTISE WHICH
TAKE INTO CONSIDERATION ONGOING GLOBAL AND TROPICAL ATMOSPHERIC AND
OCEANIC STATES...RECENT TRENDS IN OBSERVED DATA AS WELL AS SOIL
MOISTURE CONDITIONS. MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THESE FORECASTS CAN BE
OBTAINED FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) WEB SITE AT:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/FORECASTS


...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK...

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                    VALID PERIOD:  3/8/2014 - 6/6/2014

                                       :    CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                       :     CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
                                       :       FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                       :      AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
                      CATEGORICAL      :
                   FLOOD STAGES (FT)   :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION           MINOR   MOD   MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:LITTLE BLUE RIVER
DEWEESE             10.0   16.0   17.0 :  21   18   <5    5   <5   <5
:NORTH FORK SOLOMON
GLADE               11.0   16.0   18.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BOW CREEK
STOCKTON             9.0   12.0   13.6 :  <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:PLATTE RIVER
COZAD                6.5    8.0   10.0 :  25   37   11   18   <5   <5
KEARNEY              6.0    8.0    9.0 :  21   30   10   11    8   <5
GRAND ISLAND         6.5    7.0    7.5 :  19   20   15   18   12   10
:WOOD RIVER
RIVERDALE           11.0   15.0   20.0 :   8   14   <5   <5   <5   <5
GIBBON              15.0   16.0   16.5 :   8   16    7   12    6   10
ALDA                10.0   11.0   12.2 :  14   25   11   20    7   12
:SOUTH LOUP RIVER
RAVENNA              5.0    8.0   10.0 :  25   32   <5   <5   <5   <5
:MUD CREEK
SWEETWATER          15.0   18.0   20.0 :  11   14   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SOUTH LOUP RIVER
SAINT MICHAEL        6.5    9.0   12.0 :  16   28   <5    5   <5   <5
:MIDDLE LOUP RIVER
SAINT PAUL           8.0   10.0   12.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:NORTH LOUP RIVER
SAINT PAUL           5.5   10.0   15.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:CEDAR RIVER
FULLERTON            9.0   17.0   18.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:LOUP RIVER
GENOA               10.5   12.0   13.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BEAVER CREEK
GENOA               15.0   17.0   19.0 :  10    9    7   <5   <5   <5
:REPUBLICAN RIVER
RIVERTON             9.0   10.5   13.5 :   6    5    5   <5   <5   <5
GUIDE ROCK          11.0   14.0   16.0 :  11   17   <5   <5   <5   <5
HARDY               11.0   11.5   12.0 :   6    8    6    5   <5   <5
:SOUTH FORK SOLOMON RIVER
WOODSTON            12.0   16.0   27.0 :  13   22    7   16   <5   <5
:SOUTH FORK SOLOMON
OSBORNE             14.0   20.0   27.0 :  15   33    7   15   <5   <5
:NORTH FORK SOLOMON
PORTIS              15.0   20.0   25.0 :   6   25   <5   14   <5   <5
:SOLOMON RIVER
BELOIT              20.0   25.0   30.0 :  20   37    8   10   <5   <5
:REPUBLICAN RIVER
CAMBRIDGE            9.0   10.0   16.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
ORLEANS              9.0   11.0   13.0 :  <5   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BEAVER CREEK
BEAVER CITY         11.0   13.0   15.0 :   7    7    6    5   <5   <5
:SAPPA CREEK
BEAVER CITY         16.0   18.0   20.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
STAMFORD            19.0   22.0   26.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:PRAIRIE DOG CREEK
WOODRUFF            21.0   24.0   30.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                               CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
                                  AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 3/8/2014 - 6/6/2014
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:LITTLE BLUE RIVER
DEWEESE               2.5    2.8    5.1    8.1    9.5   11.5   14.2
:NORTH FORK SOLOMON
GLADE                 3.2    3.2    3.3    4.4    6.9    8.5    9.5
:BOW CREEK
STOCKTON              3.4    3.4    3.4    3.8    5.3    6.4    8.0
:PLATTE RIVER
COZAD                 3.4    3.7    4.4    5.9    6.5    8.2    9.0
KEARNEY               3.4    3.4    3.8    4.7    5.4    7.9    9.6
GRAND ISLAND          4.1    4.1    4.3    5.0    5.6    7.8    8.4
:WOOD RIVER
RIVERDALE             2.1    2.1    2.1    3.3    5.3    9.4   11.8
GIBBON                4.1    4.1    4.1    6.5    9.4   13.2   16.7
ALDA                  4.3    4.3    4.3    6.2    7.4   11.1   12.5
:SOUTH LOUP RIVER
RAVENNA               3.0    3.0    3.3    4.0    5.0    5.5    6.1
:MUD CREEK
SWEETWATER            6.2    6.2    7.2    9.9   12.4   15.3   16.4
:SOUTH LOUP RIVER
SAINT MICHAEL         2.9    3.0    3.3    4.3    5.6    7.0    7.5
:MIDDLE LOUP RIVER
SAINT PAUL            2.6    2.6    2.8    3.4    4.0    4.9    5.6
:NORTH LOUP RIVER
SAINT PAUL            3.3    3.3    3.5    4.0    4.3    4.9    5.2
:CEDAR RIVER
FULLERTON             3.4    3.6    4.3    5.0    5.9    6.7    7.3
:LOUP RIVER
GENOA                 4.5    4.5    6.0    7.2    8.4    9.5   10.3
:BEAVER CREEK
GENOA                 4.4    5.2    6.8    8.5   11.8   14.3   18.8
:REPUBLICAN RIVER
RIVERTON              1.6    1.6    2.0    3.9    5.0    7.3   10.2
GUIDE ROCK            3.1    3.1    5.2    7.5    9.3   11.1   13.5
HARDY                 1.9    3.3    4.2    5.8    6.9    9.3   11.7
:SOUTH FORK SOLOMON RIVER
WOODSTON              3.8    3.8    3.8    4.7    6.2   14.4   18.6
:SOUTH FORK SOLOMON
OSBORNE               3.2    3.2    3.3    4.6    7.3   18.3   21.3
:NORTH FORK SOLOMON
PORTIS                3.5    3.5    3.6    4.8    7.4   12.5   17.6
:SOLOMON RIVER
BELOIT                3.1    3.3    3.9    7.8   17.2   21.5   29.0
:REPUBLICAN RIVER
CAMBRIDGE             2.3    2.3    2.3    3.1    4.0    5.9    6.2
ORLEANS               1.6    1.6    1.8    3.0    4.8    7.1    8.1
:BEAVER CREEK
BEAVER CITY           3.0    3.0    3.0    4.0    7.5   10.2   13.2
:SAPPA CREEK
BEAVER CITY           2.8    2.8    2.8    3.6    7.8   11.0   12.8
STAMFORD              6.4    6.5    6.6    8.0   10.7   13.2   15.8
:PRAIRIE DOG CREEK
WOODRUFF              0.0    0.0    2.8    5.2    7.8    9.1   11.8

THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE.

...FUTURE OUTLOOKS...

THE NEXT PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK IS CURRENTLY SCHEDULED TO BE ISSUED
WEDNESDAY APRIL 23RD.

&&

ADDITIONAL CLIMATE INFORMATION FOR THE REGION CAN BE OBTAINED AT:
WWW.HPRCC.UNL.EDU

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CLIMATOLOGICAL OUTLOOKS CAN BE FOUND AT:
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

FURTHER INFORMATION ON DROUGHT CONDITIONS CAN BE OBTAINED AT:
WWW.DROUGHT.GOV
WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU
WWW.DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU

INFORMATION ON MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK CAN BE FOUND AT:
WWW.WCC.NRCS.USDA.GOV/FTPREF/DOWNLOADS/WSF/201402WSFWWW.PDF

NATIONAL SNOW ANALYSIS PAGE CAN BE FOUND AT:
WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV/NSA/

VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT: WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS
FOR MORE WEATHER AND FLOOD INFORMATION.

FOR TRAINING ON NWS PROBABILISTIC GRAPHICS (ALL LOWERCASE EXCEPT FOR
"S" AND "E" WHICH NEED TO BE IN CAPS)
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/WATCH?V=PSOEGVSNPV4
                         ^ ^
FOR TRAINING ON NWS RIVER FORECAST GRAPHICS (ALL LOWERCASE EXCEPT
FOR "IB" "EZY" WHICH NEED TO BE IN CAPS)
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/WATCH?V=PSIBYJ8EZY0
                          ^^   ^^^
$$

WESELY/PFANNKUCH








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