Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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073 FXUS61 KALY 161745 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 145 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Rain showers end this evening, with dry weather returning to the region through Friday as high pressure builds in. Additional chances for rain showers arrive Friday night into Saturday, more likely for areas west of the Hudson. Temperatures remain seasonable through the period. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A vertically-stacked surface and upper low continue to meander off the New Jersey and Long Island coasts, with rain pivoting about their northwestern flank into the Berkshires and Litchfield Hills, as well as adjacent portions of eastern New York including the Mid-Hudson Valley and Taconics. Overcast skies in the same areas give way to isolated showers and mostly cloudy conditions farther from the low in the western Mohawk Valley and southwestern Adirondacks, where heights aloft have begun to rise as ridging noses into the region. Afternoon temperatures remain below normal where rain is ongoing, only reaching highs in the upper 50s to low 60s, while mid 60s to low 70s are expected farther north and west. As the coastal system drifts into the North Atlantic, ridging will build in to its west, yielding a drying and clearing trend across the region this evening through tonight. Temperatures will be seasonable, with early morning lows in the upper 40s in high terrain to mid 50s at lower elevations. Patchy fog may develop overnight, particularly in sheltered valleys west of the Hudson where more widespread clearing is expected. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As the coastal system continues to pull away Friday, weak ridging glides into the region as high pressure to our south pushes east. This, pairing with high pressure to our north, will keep us dry Friday with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Skies, though beginning as only partly cloudy, will begin to increase in the afternoon, however, as an upper-level shortwave tracks into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Despite this, primarily dry weather will persist, outside of a stray shower or two in the Southwest Adirondacks, through the overnight with low temperatures primarily in the upper 50s with some low 40s in western New England where clouds will be slower to completely fill in. By Saturday morning, the aforementioned shortwave energy will have tracked through the Great Lakes and continue along a northeasterly track through New York. A fairly moisture-starved disturbance, guidance now shows mere isolated showers mainly north and west of Albany before mid-morning. Weak troughing will remain across the region throughout the day Saturday with another shortwave disturbance passing to our south. Some light showers associated with this perturbation are possible in the Eastern Catskills and Mid-Hudson Valley, but once again, these look to be very light and scattered in nature. Any showers that do cross into our area look to dissipate by Saturday afternoon/evening with upper ridging building in overtop of the southerly shortwave. Therefore, Saturday night will once again see the return of dry conditions. Highs Saturday will be in the upper 60s to low/mid 70s with lows Saturday night in the upper 40s to low 50s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The extended forecast has trended drier with above normal temperatures for eastern NY and western New England into the mid week based on the latest medium range deterministic and ensemble guidance. A Rex type block sets up with mid level ridging over NY and New England on Sunday with a mid and upper level trough over the the Mid Atlantic States and portions of the Southeast. Sfc high pressure builds in from the Canadian Maritimes. Partly to mostly sunny conditions will allow for temps to warm to seasonal to slightly above normal levels with mid and upper 70s in many of the valley areas with 60s to lower 70s over the higher terrain. Some radiational cooling with the ridging will allow lows to fall into the mid 40s to lower 50s. Monday into the mid week, the mid and upper level ridge folds in from the west/southwest over region with above normal heights and H850 temps. Max temps trend above normal by close to 10 degrees on both Monday and Tuesday. High will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s in the lower elevations and upper 60s to mid 70s over the higher terrain. The sfc anticyclone will be over or near New England with lows in the 50s with some 40s over the mtns or in the sheltered valleys. A cold front and an upper level trough will approach from the west on Wednesday. Some clouds will increase and a prefrontal sfc trough may focus some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Temps will still run above normal. The latest CPC Day 8-14 forecast May 23-29 is calling for near normal temps and slightly above normal rainfall for eastern NY and western New England. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Rain from system offshore Long Island is producing MVFR ceilings and visibilities at KPOU, while just some occasional sprinkles at KALB and KPSF. Ceilings at KPSF in the MVFR range, while KALB and KGFL, farther from the offshore storm, are VFR. The storm should continue tracking farther offshore, so conditions will improve to VFR at KPSF and KPOU, mainly between midnight and 12Z. Conditions will remain VFR at KALB and KGFL. We will have to watch how much any clouds will break up through the night because if some intervals of breaks in the clouds occur, there could be some fog but those chances are very low. By 12Z-14Z Just scattered clouds at KALB and KGFL with scattered variable broken clouds above 3000 feet at KPOU and KPSF. VFR continues through Friday morning. North to east winds at around 10 Kt through this afternoon, with a few gusts approaching 20 Kt at KPOU and KPSF, maybe a few gusts at KALB. Winds become light and variable at 6 Kt or less tonight, continuing through Friday morning, although predominantly north to east at KPOU and KPSF. Outlook... Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Picard NEAR TERM...Picard SHORT TERM...Gant LONG TERM...Wasula AVIATION...NAS