Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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299 FXUS61 KALY 090540 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 140 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Variable cloudiness and cooler temperatures are expected this morning. Chances for showers increase late this afternoon and tonight and linger through the weekend. It looks like we trend back towards drier and slightly warmer conditions for the beginning of next week before chances for showers increase again by midweek. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 123 AM EDT...The skies have become mostly clear or partly cloudy in the wake of the cold front from the Capital District south and east. Mostly cloudy conditions continue south and west. Cold advection continues across the forecast area with west northwest winds of 5-15 mph with a few gusts 20-30 mph over the higher terrain. A few light showers/spotty drizzle continues over the southern Dacks...mainly north of Old Forge. Some changes to sky cover with this update and a re-trending of temps. Portions of the southern Adirondacks are already in the mid 40s according to the NYS Mesonet. Expecting lows in the 40s north and west of the Capital District/Mid Hudson Valley/southern Taconics and NW CT with lower to mid 50s in these areas. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Tomorrow starts off relatively cool, especially across the northern portions of our forecast area. It will also be dry to start the day with a ridge of high pressure at the surface beneath confluent flow aloft extending over our region. However, a positively tilted upper trough with several embedded shortwave disturbances rotating around it dips into the Great Lakes region. The surface cold front continues its track southwards, and an area of low pressure tracks eastwards from the Ohio valley along the low-level thermal gradient beneath the left exit region of the upper jet. This will bring increasing shower chances in the afternoon and especially overnight, mainly for areas along and south of I-90. Precipitation does not look as widespread as it did at this time yesterday, especially tomorrow afternoon. If current forecast trends continue, PoPs may have to be trimmed back even more tomorrow. Temperatures will be in the 50s to 60s for highs tomorrow, and drop into the 40s tomorrow night. A few wet snowflakes could mix in across the southern Greens late tomorrow night, but little to no accumulation is expected. Friday and Friday night...Forecast confidence remains lower than we would like for this timeframe. The upper trough takes on a neutral to even negative tilt, and the surface low tracks to our south off the Mid-Atlantic coast. At the same time, an inverted trough will extend back north and west into central NY. We will likely see showers or a period of steady rain for areas near the inverted trough, but exactly how far north and east this feature and the associated precip makes it remains somewhat uncertain at this time. The best chance for rain therefore appears to be from Albany south and west. Here, likely to categorical PoPs were put in the forecast, with chance PoPs further north and east. Precipitation chances diminish Friday night as the surface low moves off to the east, but will keep slight chance to chance PoPs around with the upper trough axis moving overhead. Friday will be quite cool, with highs the 40s for many high terrain areas with 50s for the lower elevations. Friday night lows will generally be in the 40s, with some upper 30s in the high terrain areas. A couple wet snow flakes could mix in across the highest peaks of the ADKs, southern Greens, and Catskills with any lingering light showers. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Long term period begins at 12z Saturday with another upper shortwave approaching from the west. This shortwave will close off aloft at it moves over our area, which will slow the forward progress of the large-scale trough causing it to remain overhead through most of the weekend. The surface low associated with the upper shortwave weakens as it moves into our area before redeveloping well or our east over the Atlantic. With the surface low and upper trough nearby all weekend, temperatures will likely be on the cool side, mainly in the 50s (terrain) to 60s (valleys). It will be mainly cloudy with chances for showers each day, although we will see scattered showers as opposed to an all-day rain. We may dry out Sunday night into Monday as upper confluence and a ridge of high pressure briefly build over the region, although an upper shortwave and associated cold front may bring additional chances for showers Monday afternoon into Tuesday for the norther half of our forecast area. The track of this feature is far from set in stone, so at this time till mention chance PoPs north of I-90 and work to refine the timing/location of any precip over the next few days. Forecast confidence decreases for the Tuesday into Wednesday timeframe, as another storm system will be developing upstream and may eventually track into our region towards the end of the long term period. Will mention chance PoPs Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Monday through Wednesday will be warmer, with more sun than over the weekend and a southerly component of the flow helping to advect warmer air into the region. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 06Z Friday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the remainder of the overnight period, with a chance for MVFR cigs to develop at ALB/GFL/PSF after 08-09Z Thu, before returning to VFR by 12-15Z Thu as diurnal mixing begins. Farther south at POU, low clouds will hold off until after 12Z Thu, with only increasing cirrus coverage expected through the early morning. No vsby restrictions are anticipated through Thursday morning. A warm front will lift across the region from the south Thursday, bringing increasing low cloud coverage and rain showers in the latter half of the period. MVFR cigs are expected to precede the onset of light precipitation, arriving after 18Z Thu. Rain showers will spread from south to north, with arrival time currently best estimated at POU by 21Z Thu, PSF by 00Z Fri, and ALB/GFL by 03Z Fri. West to northwest winds at ALB/PSF around 10 kt with occasional gusts of 15-20 kt may continue through the next 2-3 hours, through 08-09Z Thu, before speeds lessen to less than 10 kt and winds shift out of the northwest to north. West winds at POU will similarly shift out of the north overnight, before flow turns increasingly out of the northeast, persisting at 5-8 kt at all terminals through the day on Thursday. Outlook... Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Main/Wasula NEAR TERM...Wasula SHORT TERM...Main LONG TERM...Main AVIATION...Picard