Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 021635
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1135 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...THIS AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

WITH THE NORTHERN SHORT WAVE BECOMING THE MORE DOMINANT ONE THIS
MORNING AND A STRONG 750 TO 400 MB CAP COMING IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORT WAVE...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 WERE REMOVED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE SUNSHINE THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...SO
RAISED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 5 DEGREES WHICH
INCREASED THE HEAT INDICES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

DATA ANALYSIS THIS MORNING FEATURES A MID-LEVEL TROUGH/MCV MAKING
ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MN/CENTRAL IA TOWARD THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. THERE HAS BEEN SOME EFFICIENT RAIN-
MAKERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS COMPLEX OF CONVECTION GIVEN HUMID/HIGHER
PRECIPITABLE WATER ENVIRONMENT. FEW HOURLY PRECIPITATION REPORTS
COMING IN FROM 3/4 TO JUST OVER AN INCH. OTHERWISE...MUGGY EARLY
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S.

WILL BE WATCHING THE TROUGH/MCV CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA
TODAY. RAP SHOWING DECENT PUSH OF 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
CONTINUING THROUGH 18Z. SO...EXPECTING THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO
HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH CHANCES FALLING OFF DURING
THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS BETTER MOISTURE PUSHES EAST WITH
THE TROUGH. HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS/STORMS LOOK TO BE NORTH
OF I-90 OR NOSE OF THE BETTER 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. ALTHOUGH
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE WIDESPREAD TODAY GIVEN LOW-
END BULK SHEAR FOR ORGANIZATION...COULD BE SOME SPORADIC HIGHER WIND
GUSTS MIXED IN WITH HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. PLAN ON MUGGY CONDITIONS
OTHERWISE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS STAYING IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS WILL PUT HEAT INDICES IN THE 90-95 DEGREE
RANGE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90.

LINGERING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS
WANING 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IMPINGES ON SURFACE TROUGH/WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LOOK FOR MUGGY
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO NEAR 70.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THURSDAY AS THIS AREA WILL BE ALONG THAT
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH/WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND VERY WEAK
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER MUGGY DAY ON TAP WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS HANGING IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE.

FRIDAY APPEARS DRY BUT RAIN CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL HANG ON
DISTURBANCES EJECTING OUT OF MONSOONAL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
MODELS SEEM TO BE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING THESE FEATURES IN
DETAIL...YIELDING LOW-END SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY.
APPEARS LATEST ECMWF/GFS ARE CONVERGING ON SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING ON
INCOMING MID-LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. APPEARS HIGHEST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT POSSIBLY CLEARING
THE AREA BY AFTERNOON ON LABOR DAY. OTHERWISE...STILL LOOKING HOT
AND MUGGY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AND HEAT
INDICES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S.

TUESDAY WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST IA
INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT JUST SOUTH OF
THAT AREA. COOLER/DRIER AIR IS ON TAP OTHERWISE WITH HIGHS LOOKING
TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS NORTHERN WI...TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S
SOUTH OF I-90.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON AT THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON. DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALLOW THE SOUTH WINDS TO GUST INTO
THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. THESE WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
03/02Z.

THE SOUNDINGS OVERNIGHT DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR DENSE FOG AT
EITHER TAF SITES TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE A
POSSIBILITY THAT FOG MAY STILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 3 TO 5
STATUE MILES LATE BETWEEN 03.09Z AND 03.13Z. WHILE DENSE FOG DOES
NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE TAF SITES...IT DOES LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...BOYNE


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