602
FXUS61 KBUF 101600
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1200 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Unfortunately...cool and generally unsettled weather will remain in
place through the weekend. Thats not to say that the next couple of
days will be a washout...as there will be frequent rainfree periods
as well. Daytime temperatures this weekend will be a solid 5 to 8
degrees BELOW typical mid May levels. While the mercury will TRY to
get back towards normal for the first half of next week...there
will still be a fair amount of showers around.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Rainy weather will be in place across much of our forecast area this
afternoon...particularly over the Finger Lakes region...as we will
remain on the northern periphery of a poorly organized storm system
over the Mid Atlantic region. Lift from this feature will be
enhanced by a shortwave trough that will sag south through the
region. The whole area will not be adversely impacted though...as
enough dry air in the mid levels will allow for some sunshine from
Niagara county to near Rochester...and also across parts of the
North country.

The aforementioned shortwave trough will push the weak area of low
pressure further away from our region tonight...while a progressive
shortwave ridge will cross the Lower Great Lakes. This scenario will
be accompanied by a wedge of dry mid level air that will bring an
end to the rain in most areas while promoting some clearing...mainly
over the western counties.

A robust shortwave and attendant sfc low will dive southeast across
the Upper Great Lakes on Saturday. A swath of deep moisture ahead of
this system will push across the western counties during the midday
and afternoon...then across the Eastern Lake Ontario region late in
the day and Saturday night. The resulting lift supplied by moderate
hgt falls...low level convergence and being in the proximity of the
left front quad of a nominal 90kt H25 jet with this scenario will
prompt a renewal in shower activity as the day matures. There could
even be a thunderstorm over the far western counties.

The most widespread and persistent shower activity will be over the
western counties during the afternoon. Dry weather with some
sunshine can even be expected for the Finger Lakes before conditions
deteriorate. It will remain cool...as temperatures on Saturday will
top out within a few degrees of 60.

Showery weather will then linger through much of Saturday night...as
the core of a H5 low with its -24c temps will pass directly across
our region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A mid-level trough will outrun its corresponding low-level low and
move east of the region Sunday. The surface low will continue to
weaken across the forecast area in the process. Unfortunately...
this will lead to another cool and mostly cloudy day with low
chances for light showers. Ridging and warm air advection will
result in dry weather Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Ridging will move into the eastern Great Lakes as another potent
shortwave moves across the Central Plains Monday. A warm front will
move through the forecast area and showers and a few thunderstorms
are possible Monday through Monday night. Weak troughing will move
into the eastern Great Lakes region Tuesday through Wednesday. A
cold front will slowly cross the forecast area and unsettled
conditions will persist into mid-week.

There is good agreement that ridging will move into the Great Lakes
region while a large area of high pressure extends from eastern
Canada to the Lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday night through
Thursday. Dry weather is likely across the forecast area during this
time.

Temperatures will average near to slightly above normal next work
week.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Areas of rain and MVFR CIGS will expand across much of the area
today. Areas of IFR conditions are expected across the higher
terrain of the interior Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region,
including areas of fog in these same areas which may reduce VSBY
down into the IFR at times as well. Exception will be toward Niagara
County (KIAG) where they may escape with no lower than low VFR CIGS
(3-5kft). Mainly VFR is expected toward the Saint Lawrence Valley,
with low VFR CIGS (3-5kft) expected toward KART, and MVFR CIGS
across the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario from late morning on.

Outlook...

Tonight...MVFR to VFR conditions from west to east, with lingering
rain showers also ending from west to east.
Saturday...VFR CIGS deteriorating to MVFR with increasing likelihood
for showers.
Sunday...VFR to MVFR CIGS in scattered showers.
Monday and Tuesday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Gentle to moderate north to northeasterly breezes (less than 15
knots) will continue on the Lakes, maintaining some light, to at
times moderate chop through today. However, there are no Small Craft
conditions forecast.

Mainly light, variable winds (less than 10 knots) will then be the
rule through the most of the weekend, before a more pronounced
southwesterly flow (10-15 knots) develops ahead of a warm front
approaching from the west toward the tail end of the weekend.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...JM/TMA
MARINE...JM/TMA