Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 270610
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
210 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front will cross our region today, with scattered
rain showers. It will turn progressively cooler behind the front
through Friday, but with fair weather. A compact low may bring a few
showers of rain and snow to western New York to start the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Pre-frontal trough will pass through the region tonight keeping the
chance for a few scattered showers in across areas south of Lake
Ontario, with the best shower chances toward the North Country/Saint
Lawrence Valley later tonight. It will be a mild and breezy
remainder of the night with overnight lows in the 40s.

The bulk of the mid level moisture will be stripped away in the wake
of the pre-frontal trough by Wednesday morning, so when the actual
cold front moves through the region, there will be little moisture
to act upon. This will greatly limit the extent of the shower
activity, particularly over the western counties. Otherwise, it will
remain on the mild side Wednesday with max temps in the lower 50s in
the far west and in the lower 60s from the Finger Lakes and interior
Southern Tier to the Eastern Lake Ontario region.

High pressure over the Ohio Valley will nose northeastward Wednesday
night, providing fair dry weather.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
While a deep longwave tough will pass over the Great Lakes during
this period...sfc based high pressure centered over the Ohio and
Tennessee valleys will extend across our region to GUARANTEE fair
dry weather. Meanwhile...temperatures will average within a degree
or so of normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Deterministic guidance (12Z ECMWF and GFS) still at odds(timing) to
when a weak shortwave moving through the zonal flow aloft will
impact the eastern Great Lakes Saturday and/or Saturday night. Have
kept chance Pops for most locales, with the greatest potential for
showers over SW NYS.

High pressure builds in Sunday, which will bring fair dry weather
through Monday. The next system to impact western and central New
York still looks on track for late Monday night and Tuesday. Low
pressure over the plains will push a warm front towards our region,
possibly bringing a soaking rain or rain/snow showers.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
For the 06Z TAFS MVFR to VFR ceiling heights ahead of a cold front,
with scattered showers through the TAF region. It will remain
breezy, with gusts upwards to 25 knots or so through the morning.

The cold front will pass across the TAF region slowly, around 12Z
towards the west, and not exiting our eastern zones till later
tonight.

Deeper moisture is associated with the prefrontal trough, and as the
cold front crosses the region later today, a line of light showers
is expected to develop, near KROC and then later KART. But lacking
deeper moisture visibilities should remain VFR.

Ceiling heights may dip to IFR across the Southern Tier early this
morning, otherwise ceilings will remain MVFR to VFR today, and
improving to VFR tonight.

Outlook...

Thursday and Friday...VFR.
Saturday...VFR, but with showers possible far west late.
Sunday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will slowly cross the Lakes today and this evening with
southerly winds, with a bit of a gust at times, becoming westerly
later today and tonight. The southerly winds will be strongest along
the eastern Lake Ontario shoreline from Sandy Pond to the Saint
Lawrence River where speeds upwards to 20 knots will remain through
the afternoon. Otherwise winds will largely remain below small craft
thresholds, with a choppy lake water of several feet.

Behind this cold front high pressure will nose towards our region
with winds and waves diminishing Thursday.

Cold air advection combined with a tightening pressure gradient
between the surface high and a strengthening east coast low will
increase northwest winds Thursday night, that may reach small craft
thresholds, along with wave heights late Thursday night and Friday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Thomas
NEAR TERM...JM/RSH/Thomas
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Thomas


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