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000
FXUS62 KCAE 110814
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
414 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread rain which may be heavy at times this morning, then
diminishing rain this afternoon as front moves through. Gusty
winds will continue today and Friday. Drier, warmer weather
fills in behind the front for the upcoming weekend and early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Strong upper level low moving through the lower Mississippi
valley this morning will be lifting off to the northeast through
the day. At the surface, a cold front moves through the area
today. A very tight pressure gradient along with a strong low-
level jet will cause increasing surface winds through early
morning, lasting throughout the remainder of the period.
Sustained winds of 15-20+ mph, with wind gusts of 35+ mph
possible. Winds have already begun to gust across the region,
and based on the gust potential the Wind Advisory is now in
effect through 8 pm for the entire area.

Rainfall already moving through the cwa this morning will
continue through about noon, then should begin to diminish from
west to east early this afternoon. Upper low will still be
northwest of the region, and can not rule out isolated showers
for a brief period later this afternoon, but confidence is lower
at this time, so will begin drying conditions out after 18z.
High shear/very low cape scenario with limited storm potential.
More likely scenario for any kind of damage is due to mixing of
the strong low-level jet winds down through the day in any
heavier showers, thus the Wind Advisory.

Highs should be in the 70s, with upper 70s possible across the
CSRA with some clearing expected earlier in the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Friday and Friday Night: The upper trough will be in control of our
weather on Friday. At the surface, a tight pressure gradient will
exist between surface low pressure in Ontario and high pressure
building in from the west. With this in mind, lower temperatures are
expected despite abundant sunshine. Breezy downslope winds will
offset the CAA to an extent with highs expected to be around 5
degrees below normal. Lowered dewpoints on Friday to account for the
drier air associated with the downslope. Confidence in wind gusts
greater than 25 mph is high (70-90 percent) during the afternoon,
especially on area lakes. Therefore, a Lake Wind Advisory will
likely be needed in a future forecast package if trends continue.
Elevated winds at night limit radiational cooling with low
temperatures expected to fall to near normal values.

Saturday and Saturday Night: By Saturday, the upper trough will lift
northeast of the CWA, being replaced with northwest flow aloft as
ridging begins to build to the west. Meanwhile, surface high
pressure to our southwest will drift eastward. Pleasant weather is
expected with abundant sunshine and warmer temperatures. Winds will
be lighter as well due to a relaxed pressure gradient.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The extended will feature a continuation of the dry conditions with
a warming trend as upper ridging slowly moves eastward across the
CONUS and surface high pressure sets up near Bermuda. Sunday is
expected to be noticeably warmer than Saturday with above normal
temperatures in the forecast. Monday is sunny and very warm. More
clouds could move into the region during the mid-week period as a
cold front approaches from the west but precipitation chances remain
low through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Rainfall moving through all taf locations this morning, with
coverage expected to continue through late morning. Ceilings
across the CSRA are mvfr/ifr with the heavier rainfall and
proximity to surface front. These conditions will continue early
this morning and through the last morning. Midlands sites
currently a mixture conditions, but they will also begin
deteriorating to mvfr/ifr through 10z, then lasting into the
early afternoon. All sites are forecast to return to vfr after
18z. In addition to clouds, rain, and visibility restrictions,
the wind is going to be a major factor at all taf locations
through the entire period. Although surface winds currently
light southeasterly, there is a very strong and increasing low-
level jet around 2kft of 40+ knots. As better mixing begins
through early morning, surface winds will be increasing to
between 10-20 knots, with wind gusts of 30+ being possible
through the period. Stronger winds are not too far west of the
CSRA sites, and will impact ags/dnl initially before spreading
east into the Midlands. The low-level jet is forecast to
increase to 50+ knots through the morning. Have included mention
of strong llws at all locations for much of the forecast due to
this feature, even with the expected strong surface winds.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Strong and gusty winds continuing
through Friday. VFR conditions return for the upcoming weekend.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ040-063>065-
     077.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...