762
FXUS62 KCAE 270116
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
916 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A stray shower or storm remains possible this evening in the far
northern portion of the forecast area. A few stronger
thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and evening as an
upper low lingers near the forecast area. Typical summertime
weather expected this weekend and into early next week with near
to slightly above normal temperatures and daily shower and
thunderstorm chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Key Message(s):

- A stray shower or storm possible north this evening.

Much quieter this afternoon and evening after the hectic weather
last night. There were some showers storms in the Upstate and
toward the Charlotte area, but the activity has stayed out of
the forecast area so far. There remains a few showers/storms
near Charlotte at this hour. This activity could still sneak
into the northern portions of the forecast area over the next
couple of hours. Otherwise, the remainder of the area is
expected to be dry. Temperatures are forecast to drop to around
or just above normal for this time of year.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Upper low continues to slowly work northward Friday, though it
will be weakening.

- Forcing from the upper low may allow another chance for strong to
marginally strong storms.

- More typical summer conditions remain expected for the weekend.

The upper low currently positioned over Florida will continue to
drift northward through the early part of the period before finally
dissipating during the weekend. While no significant surge of
moisture is expected, southerly flow Friday will allow PWAT`s to
remain near 1.75-1.85", as well as temperatures in the low to mid
90s with continuing muggy conditions. The lingering forcing from the
upper low looks to drive scattered convection during the afternoon
and into the evening across the region, but the 12z HRRR continues
to favor locations along and north of I-20, with possible convection
forming along the sea breeze later in the afternoon. The risk for a
couple strong to marginally severe storms exists as the environment
continues to be characterized by modest to strong instability,
1000- 1300 J/kg of DCAPE with a strong inverted v profile, and
fairly weak shear. Forecast soundings also depict some dry air
in the mid levels with cloud layer shear values near 25-30 kts
and thus while potential damaging wind gusts would be the
primary threat in any strong cells, some marginally severe hail
cannot be ruled out.

After Friday, more typical summer conditions take over for the
weekend as the upper low begins to fizzle out and the region remains
under the influence of the subtropical ridge, keeping near average
temperatures and muggy conditions. PWAT`s near 1.8" each day and
building of diurnal instability should allow scattered pulse
convection during the afternoon/evening Saturday and Sunday as
convective temps between 92-95F are neared. Forecast soundings
Saturday still depict a decent inverted v profile and moderate to
strong DCAPE values, thus a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out
at this time but widespread severe weather is not anticipated.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Near average temperatures and typical summer diurnal
  convection expected into the early week.

- A possible cold front nears the region toward the mid-week,
bringing more rain/storm chances, though the severity of any storms
still needs to be ironed out.

The subtropical ridge remains in place to start the week before
perhaps getting a bit suppressed toward the middle of the week.
PWAT`s and temperatures remain near average much of the early
week with diurnal shower/storm chances still possible, though
the overall severe threat appears fairly low with the generally
pulse nature of this. By the midweek however global guidance and
ensembles hint that troughing into the Great Lakes region could
start to suppress the ridge some, and possibly bring a slow
moving cold front near the region with PWAT`s raising toward
125-130% of normal. With the EC Ensemble and GEFS generally
onboard with this solution, PoP`s chances are bit higher toward
the midweek, but details regarding any potential severe weather
will come into better focus in the coming days with more medium
range guidance reaching into this period. In general,
temperatures into the midweek should be near average to slightly
below, depending on when the front actually passes through the
CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Some early morning fog-stratus possible Friday with
thunderstorms also possible in the afternoon.

South winds will become light and variable overnight. Some fog
and/or stratus is possible Friday morning given the widespread
rainfall and dry air aloft moving into region. The HRRR and SREF
don`t show much in the way of restrictions so confidence is
low. This could be because of a 20 kt LLJ which should keep
mixing up enough to prevent widespread fog. That said, AGS and
OGB would be the most likely culprits to see IFR or lower fog
for a brief period Friday morning. Winds pick up again out of
the south around 5 kts on Friday. Thunderstorm coverage in the
afternoon should be highest in the Upstate but a few isolated
storms may still threaten the TAF sites after 18Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Patchy fog possible each night.
Diurnally driven scattered thunderstorms expected Saturday and
Sunday. A front could approach the Southeast next week leading
to increased thunderstorm chances.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$