Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 280841
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
441 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer than average temperatures and periods of isolated rain
showers continue through Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
Showers end by Thursday night, and it will turn breezy and
cooler through Friday. Another period of showers is expected on
Saturday before conditions dry out for Easter Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
Rain continues to skirt the southeast corner of the forecast
area early this morning in a region of fgen forcing beneath the
right entrance of a jet streak over upstate NY. Meanwhile, a
slow moving cold front is pushing into the Susq Valley as of
08Z. Abundant low level moisture east of this boundary is
producing low cigs and locally dense fog on the higher terrain
of Eastern PA. Expect the fog to begin to disperse over the
eastern counties toward dawn, as the front pushes through and
drier air arrives on a northwest flow.

Low level cold advection behind the front will push readings
steadily downward over much of the region with readings at dawn
ranging from around 30F over the NW Mtns, to the mid 40s over
the Lower Susq Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Latest guidance tracks a developing surface low on the front
well east of PA later today, resulting in rain tapering off over
Lancaster County by around midday. Latest RAP 850-700mb fgen,
which correlates well with the current back edge of the rain,
pushes east of Lancaster County by around 16Z. A much drier
northwest flow behind the cold front will result in brightening
skies from west to east today. However, model RH profiles
indicate warm advection aloft ahead of the approaching upper
trough will result in a lingering veil of high clouds over
Central and Eastern PA.

GEFS 2m temp anomalies point to near seasonal highs today,
ranging from the upper 40s over the Alleghenies, to the low 50s
east of the mountains. Forecast soundings over the central and
western counties shows a marked dry layer above a weak inversion
later today, a signature that usually supports undercutting NBM
dewpoints a few degrees.

Fair and seasonable weather is anticipated tonight, as the upper
trough shifts east of the state. However, a weak area of low
pressure diving across the Ohio Valley could potentially come
close enough to produce a few snow showers over Southern
Somerset County.

Large scale subsidence behind the exiting trough should result
in sunny, breezy and seasonable weather Friday. Mixing down
model 850mb temps of around -1C to -4C translates to expected
highs ranging from the mid 40s over the N Mtns, to the mid and
upper 50s across the Lower Susq Valley. Bufkit soundings also
support wgusts several knots above NBM guidance Friday
afternoon and dewpoints a few degrees below due to fairly deep
mixing. Higher fuel moistures should limit the risk of wildfire
spread, despite expected wind gusts near 30kt and RH falling to
around 30pct.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Northwest winds will pick up on Fri as the pressure gradient
tightens behind the departing low pressure system. Wind gusts up
to 40 mph are progged across the southeast and Laurel
Highlands. With high pressure building in, large scale
subsidence will lead to mostly sunny skies and low dewpoints Fri
afternoon. The combination of gusty winds and min RH values
25-35% could present fire weather concerns, but temperatures in
the 50s and moist fine fuel moisture will be limiting factors.

A weak wave of low pressure tracking across PA could
produce a bit of light rain Sat or Sat night. Beyond that, a
somewhat more substantial rainfall is possible early next week
associated with a stronger low approaching from the midwest.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail for central and western airfields
while restrictions continue in eastern PA (IPT, MDT, and LNS).
Scattered showers will continue across eastern PA with southeast
flow continuing ahead of the approaching cold front. MVFR
ceilings will lower overnight at IPT, MDT, and LNS with IFR
conditions prevailing for several hours at all sites.

Farther west, MVFR ceilings are possible at UNV, JST, and AOO as
the cold front sweeps through. Conditions there should improve
overnight as northwest flow builds in and brings drier air to
the region. Southerly winds shift to west and then northwest
overnight into Thursday morning with occasional gusts to 15 to
20mph in the south. All sites improve to VFR by Thursday
afternoon.

Outlook...

Thu...Lingering rain and reduced cigs possible S/E.

Thu PM-Fri...Improving conds.

Sat-Mon...Multiple rounds of showers with a period of dry
weather Sunday afternoon.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Banghoff/Bowen
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald
LONG TERM...Gartner/Colbert
AVIATION...Banghoff/Gartner


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