Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
272 FXUS62 KKEY 150216 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1016 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1030 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024 Currently - A surface high cell centered off the Mid-Atlantic coast extends a ridge southwestward across western Cuba. This along with a weak disorganized low over the southeastern United States is placing the Keys in a light to gentle southeasterly flow. This veered flow is maintaining continued warm and muggy conditions across the Keys this evening. Temperatures remain in the mid 80s with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. Despite the rather high surface dew points and this evenings sounding indicated 1.7+ inches of precipitable water, a very low inhibition layer around 980 mb has prevented stratocumulus, much less shower activity around the Keys. Short Term Update - The Atlantic high will nudge a bit further out to sea through the overnight period as troughing over the southeast moves nearer the Atlantic Coast. The surface ridge will remain anchored across the Bahamas and Cuba. This along with the usual diurnal effects will result in winds strengthening out of the southeast over the next couple of hours. However, through late night and early tomorrow, winds will relax and clock south southwesterly. While the lower level ridge will be under pressure by troughing to the north, it will continue to remain in control of our area. This will maintain inhospitable conditions for shower formation. Expect no showers through the overnight period. Very warm conditions will continue with overnight lows remaining in the 80s with no reason for dew points to deviate from the upper 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 1030 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024 An Atlantic high will maintain a ridge to the southwest across Cuba through the overnight. Expect winds to surge moderately out of the southeast to south over the next few hours due to the usual evening and night time wind surge. Meanwhile, falling pressures moving into the Mid-Atlantic will help to steer winds west of south as they relax late in the night and early tomorrow. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals overnight. Surface winds are expected to strengthen moderately out of the southeast to south over the next couple of hours, but then relax and shift further south southwest late in the night and early tomorrow. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...11 Aviation/Nowcasts....11 Data Acquisition.....DP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest