Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA

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FXUS61 KPBZ 270752
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
352 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A few isolated showers continue this morning as a slow moving
cold front crosses the region. Dry and seasonable conditions
are then expected for the remainder of the work week. Rain
chances return for the weekend and early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Lingering showers are possible this morning with the crossing
  cold front, but most remain dry.
- Cooler, drier air arrives tonight as skies begin to slowly
  clear.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Lingering, isolated showers along the cold frontal boundary
have crossed into eastern Ohio... rapidly diminishing as they
slowly shift east. Brief light rain will be possible as these
cross eastern Ohio and northwest PA, but most of us will remain
dry.

As the parent system lifts north, the cold front will largely
stall across western PA today, keeping isolated showers in the
forecast -- though mainly across the higher terrain. High
temperatures for the day will largely depend on the location and
progression of the front. Areas east of Pittsburgh will maintain
southerly flow the longest into the afternoon before frontal
passage, likely boosting temperatures into the lower 60s.
Elsewhere, clouds and weak cold advection behind the front and
surface trough will keep highs in the 50s.

Better cold advection finally arrives tonight as temperatures
dip below freezing for the high terrain and northern/western
half of the forecast area. Clouds will begin to gradually clear
overnight as drier/cooler air infiltrates the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry weather continues Thursday and Friday.
- Near-seasonable temperatures are expected.

------------------------------------------------------------------

Building high pressure will keep dry conditions in the forecast
Thursday and Friday with mostly sunny skies. Deep southern
stream troughing will aid development of a coastal low across
the Carolinas along the lingering frontal boundary, eventually
lifting northwards up the coast. However, moisture associated
with that system should stay well to our east. The main impact
for our area will be to maintain northwesterly flow across the
area, keeping daily temperatures near-average.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- A crossing shortwave returns rain chances early this weekend.
- Additional rain chances are expected with low pressure early
  next week.
- Above-average temperatures are expected.

----------------------------------------------------------------

The aforementioned trough will shift east into the weekend as a
flattening ridge takes its place across the eastern US.
Ensemble probabilities remain high for rainfall to return on
Saturday as a shortwave trough crosses the Great Lakes.
Uncertainty increases for Easter Sunday, though drier
conditions look more favorable than not at the moment. Rain
chances then increase again early next week as low pressure
lifts out of the central US and into the Great Lakes region.

Probabilities for above-normal temperatures through the long
term are high.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecast period will begin with VFR conditions at most ports as
a large dry slot crosses the region. The exception will be at
FKL and DUJ they should remain in lower MVFR cigs. LLWS will
also be present during the early forecast period. As the night
progresses cigs should drop back to MVFR levels and stay there
through at least the morning hours. Improvement is anticipated
at most ports during the afternoon as cigs should lift back to
VFR levels. The exceptions will be at the eastern ports of DUJ
and LBE where trapped low-level moisture will keep the cigs in
the MVFR category. An increase in surface winds is possible
during the afternoon, with gusts to 20kts.

Wind will decrease as sunset approaches and conditions should
remain the same into the overnight hours.

.Outlook...
VFR then returns with high confidence for Thursday and Friday
under high pressure. The next chance for restrictions may come
Saturday with a passing wave.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rackley
NEAR TERM...Rackley
SHORT TERM...Rackley
LONG TERM...Rackley
AVIATION...22


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